OK, so its been a pretty slow year as far as Cubs news goes. The Cubs are in last place and Carlos Zambrano is not around to blow up after another one of his bad outings.
However, I recently came this gem of an article that made me cringe. Apparently, Cubs President Theo Epstein is open to signing Ryan Dempster to an extension.
First let me say that Dempster has been tremendous for the Cubs this year. If it wasn't for him the Cubs would be in last place...er, scratch that. If it wasn't for Dempster, the Cubs would be in Iowa.
But, let's be clear about this, the reason Cubs fans are suffering through this miserable year is that there is a hope that Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have a master rebuilding plan that will put the Cubs back into contention in the not-so-distant future.
So, why is it that the Cubs management would decide to take their best trade chip off the market before the market even develops?
Do they plan to use him as a building block for a future championship team?
As good as Dempster has been, he recently turned 35 and is not getting any younger. Prior to this year, Dempster's ERA as a starter increased each year from 2008 (2.96 ERA), his first year starting with the Cubs, to last year's 4.80 ERA.
Sure, this is Dempster's 9th season with the Cubs and he would probably give them a bit of a discount to finish his career in Chicago. But if that's the case, the Cubs should try to trade him in July, then resign him as a free agent.
If the Cubs are truly committed to rebuilding, they need to cash in on Dempster while his stock is high. The Cubs have a lack of quality arms in their minor league system and Dempster could bring a decent return.
If the Cubs retain Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija continues to develop, the have two young pitchers to build around. If they are able to add a young pitcher by trading Dempster and another potentially through the draft, then we can get serious about contending on a consistent basis.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Carlos Marmol will be back as closer. Just you wait.
Cubs Manager Dale Sveum made an interesting comment the other day, saying basically that Carlos Marmol is not guaranteed to return to the closer role.
Well, I think he is. In fact, I believe he'll be back in the role by June (at least, if the Cubs know what's good for them).
Bottom line is that the Cubs need to trade Marmol and they cannot do that when his value is at its lowest, which it is now. They need him to get back into form, put together a strong month in the closer role and then trade him in July to the first contender to come calling.
Marmol is just another example of bad contract management by former GM Jim Hendry. Coming off a career year in 2010, Hendry signed Marmol to a 3-year extension in February 2011, effectively buying out his last two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency.
The problem is that, even though Marmol put up incredible numbers, posting a 2.55 ERA, saving 38 games and striking out 138 in 77.2 IP (16.0 K/9), he still showed signs of the control problems that have plagued him every year.
His BB/9 ratio in 2010 was 6.0, same as his career mark. Sure it was down from his high water mark of 7.9 in 2009, but its still too high to be an effective reliever over the long haul.
Hendry would have been better served to let Marmol play out his arbitration years and see how he performed before committing to him long-term. Sure hindsight is 20/20, but the warning signs were there.
Now, the best bet for the Cubs is that Marmol returns to the closer role at the beginning of June, puts up solid numbers for a month and garners strong interest from one of several teams in need of bullpen help.
Currently there are five teams with injured closers: Boston (Andrew Bailey), Tampa Bay (Kyle Farnsworth), Washington (Drew Storen), Toronto (Sergio Santos) and San Diego (Huston Street). In addition, there are 3 other teams (besides the Cubs) with struggling or deposed closers: Miami (Heath Bell), LA Angels (Jordan Walden) and the White Sox (Hector Santiago).
At least half of these teams are considered contenders and there are likely more teams with bullpen issues to crop up as the season progresses.
As you can see, it is imperative that Marmol gets back into form so the Cubs can deal him in July. Otherwise, they will be stuck paying $9.8 million for 2013, an expensive price for a setup man.
Well, I think he is. In fact, I believe he'll be back in the role by June (at least, if the Cubs know what's good for them).
Bottom line is that the Cubs need to trade Marmol and they cannot do that when his value is at its lowest, which it is now. They need him to get back into form, put together a strong month in the closer role and then trade him in July to the first contender to come calling.
Marmol is just another example of bad contract management by former GM Jim Hendry. Coming off a career year in 2010, Hendry signed Marmol to a 3-year extension in February 2011, effectively buying out his last two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency.
The problem is that, even though Marmol put up incredible numbers, posting a 2.55 ERA, saving 38 games and striking out 138 in 77.2 IP (16.0 K/9), he still showed signs of the control problems that have plagued him every year.
His BB/9 ratio in 2010 was 6.0, same as his career mark. Sure it was down from his high water mark of 7.9 in 2009, but its still too high to be an effective reliever over the long haul.
Hendry would have been better served to let Marmol play out his arbitration years and see how he performed before committing to him long-term. Sure hindsight is 20/20, but the warning signs were there.
Now, the best bet for the Cubs is that Marmol returns to the closer role at the beginning of June, puts up solid numbers for a month and garners strong interest from one of several teams in need of bullpen help.
Currently there are five teams with injured closers: Boston (Andrew Bailey), Tampa Bay (Kyle Farnsworth), Washington (Drew Storen), Toronto (Sergio Santos) and San Diego (Huston Street). In addition, there are 3 other teams (besides the Cubs) with struggling or deposed closers: Miami (Heath Bell), LA Angels (Jordan Walden) and the White Sox (Hector Santiago).
At least half of these teams are considered contenders and there are likely more teams with bullpen issues to crop up as the season progresses.
As you can see, it is imperative that Marmol gets back into form so the Cubs can deal him in July. Otherwise, they will be stuck paying $9.8 million for 2013, an expensive price for a setup man.
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Taking a look at the Cubs potential July trade chips
I know that its only May, but when you're in rebuilding mode, like the Cubs, its never too early to start thinking about the July trade deadline. The Cubs will obviously be sellers again, but what assets do they have that might be of value to other teams?
Here's a look at some players who may be of interest to other teams and the potential return the Cubs could expect for them.
Ryan Dempster
Dempster is probably the best trade chip the Cubs have at this point (unless Matt Garza becomes available--more on that later). So far this year he has a sparkling 0.95 ERA and a 29/9 K/BB ratio in 28.1 IP. Contenders are always looking for starting pitching and this year is no exception with the Yankees and Red Sox among the teams in need. Dempster seems to have regained his form after a sub-par 2011 and should net the Cubs 2-3 prospects with at least one in that team's top 10.
Carlos Marmol
Marmol is struggling this year and may soon be out as the Cubs closer, but his live arm could still be of use to a contender in a setup role. Given that he is being paid $7 million this year and is owed $9.8 million for 2013, the Cubs would probably have to kick in some money to get a decent prospect in return. However, the Cubs have shown a willingness to do just that, most recently with Marlon Byrd. Expect the Cubs to net a mid-tier prospect (someone in a team's 11-20 range) or a former top prospect that needs a change of scenery.
Paul Maholm
Maholm hasn't exactly been great this year, so teams will not be knocking down Jed Hoyer's door for him, but after the top pitchers are off the market, Maholm could appeal to a lot of teams, if only because he's left handed. He's signed for a reasonable $4.25 million this year with a $6.5 million option for 2013 that carries a $500K buyout. Again, depending on how much money the Cubs throw in, I would expect they could get another mid-tier prospect for Maholm.
Geovany Soto
Its hard to get a read on Soto career trajectory. Is he the guy who had an OPS of .868 and .890 in 2008 and 2010 or is he the guy who had an OPS of .702 and .721 in 2009 and 2011? So far this year, it appears to be the latter, as Soto has struggled mightily and is losing playing time to Steve Clevenger. Soto is making $4.3 million in his second year of arbitration and will likely see an increase in 2013 because that's just how the arbitration process works. Once again, we're probably looking at a mid-tier prospect in return and that's if the Cubs throw in a few million in the deal.
Matt Garza
Garza is the Cubs wild card. Everyone in the organization is saying they want to sign him to an extension and build around him, but there has not been much news on the extension front. For his part, Garza has not let his uncertain future hinder his performance. He has been very good so far with a 2.67 ERA and 36 K's in 33.2 IP. Bruce Levine has been saying for months that "if Garza is not signed to a long-term deal by July, he will be dealt." If the Cubs do end up dealing Garza, he should command a pretty steep price. We're talking at least 3-4 good prospects, with at least two in a team's top 10.
Alfonso Soriano
The Albatross will likely be a fixture in left field for the Cubs for the next two years unless the Cubs can find some sucker to take him off their hands. Ideally suited for the DH role, Soriano still has some pop left in the bat, having never failed to hit more than 20 homers since his rookie year in 2001. By the time July rolls around, Sori will still have around $45 million left on his contract and you can bet that the Cubs would have to eat a large chunk of that to be rid of him. Even if they do, the Cubs will likely not get much in return. Best case would be a fringe prospect. Worst case would be a bad contract in return. If the Cubs cannot find a taker and Brett Jackson is knocking down the door, they may be better off just releasing Soriano and eating the remainder of his contract.
As I said before, this should be an interesting July and could go a long way towards the Cubs rebuilding efforts. The returns they get this year, along with their high draft picks this year and next, could very well determine how soon they can become contenders again.
Here's a look at some players who may be of interest to other teams and the potential return the Cubs could expect for them.
Ryan Dempster
Dempster is probably the best trade chip the Cubs have at this point (unless Matt Garza becomes available--more on that later). So far this year he has a sparkling 0.95 ERA and a 29/9 K/BB ratio in 28.1 IP. Contenders are always looking for starting pitching and this year is no exception with the Yankees and Red Sox among the teams in need. Dempster seems to have regained his form after a sub-par 2011 and should net the Cubs 2-3 prospects with at least one in that team's top 10.
Carlos Marmol
Marmol is struggling this year and may soon be out as the Cubs closer, but his live arm could still be of use to a contender in a setup role. Given that he is being paid $7 million this year and is owed $9.8 million for 2013, the Cubs would probably have to kick in some money to get a decent prospect in return. However, the Cubs have shown a willingness to do just that, most recently with Marlon Byrd. Expect the Cubs to net a mid-tier prospect (someone in a team's 11-20 range) or a former top prospect that needs a change of scenery.
Paul Maholm
Maholm hasn't exactly been great this year, so teams will not be knocking down Jed Hoyer's door for him, but after the top pitchers are off the market, Maholm could appeal to a lot of teams, if only because he's left handed. He's signed for a reasonable $4.25 million this year with a $6.5 million option for 2013 that carries a $500K buyout. Again, depending on how much money the Cubs throw in, I would expect they could get another mid-tier prospect for Maholm.
Geovany Soto
Its hard to get a read on Soto career trajectory. Is he the guy who had an OPS of .868 and .890 in 2008 and 2010 or is he the guy who had an OPS of .702 and .721 in 2009 and 2011? So far this year, it appears to be the latter, as Soto has struggled mightily and is losing playing time to Steve Clevenger. Soto is making $4.3 million in his second year of arbitration and will likely see an increase in 2013 because that's just how the arbitration process works. Once again, we're probably looking at a mid-tier prospect in return and that's if the Cubs throw in a few million in the deal.
Matt Garza
Garza is the Cubs wild card. Everyone in the organization is saying they want to sign him to an extension and build around him, but there has not been much news on the extension front. For his part, Garza has not let his uncertain future hinder his performance. He has been very good so far with a 2.67 ERA and 36 K's in 33.2 IP. Bruce Levine has been saying for months that "if Garza is not signed to a long-term deal by July, he will be dealt." If the Cubs do end up dealing Garza, he should command a pretty steep price. We're talking at least 3-4 good prospects, with at least two in a team's top 10.
Alfonso Soriano
The Albatross will likely be a fixture in left field for the Cubs for the next two years unless the Cubs can find some sucker to take him off their hands. Ideally suited for the DH role, Soriano still has some pop left in the bat, having never failed to hit more than 20 homers since his rookie year in 2001. By the time July rolls around, Sori will still have around $45 million left on his contract and you can bet that the Cubs would have to eat a large chunk of that to be rid of him. Even if they do, the Cubs will likely not get much in return. Best case would be a fringe prospect. Worst case would be a bad contract in return. If the Cubs cannot find a taker and Brett Jackson is knocking down the door, they may be better off just releasing Soriano and eating the remainder of his contract.
As I said before, this should be an interesting July and could go a long way towards the Cubs rebuilding efforts. The returns they get this year, along with their high draft picks this year and next, could very well determine how soon they can become contenders again.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Rizzo who? Bryan LaHair is the Cubs first baseman!
Sometimes all you need is a chance to prove yourself and Bryan LaHair is doing just that.
After languishing in the minors for 9 seasons, the Cubs are the first team to finally give LaHair a chance to show what he can do on the major league stage. So far, the results have been spectacular.
Through 20 games, LaHair has a slash line of .390/.471/.780 for an obscene OPS of 1.251 and an OPS+ of 241. Despite missing the first 3 games of the season due to injury, he still leads the team in homers (5) and doubles (8), and is tied for the team lead for RBIs (14) with Starlin Castro and walks (10) with David DeJesus.
The only blemish on his ridiculous start is that he has also struck out 25 times in just 59 at bats, a sign that his average will likely drop. However, his power is legit (he hit 38 homers in AAA last season) and he certainly looks like a keeper for the Cubs.
LaHair's performance reminds me of another late-bloomer who broke onto the scene with a big season in his age 29 year--Ryan Ludwick.
Ludwick had a bit more experience than LaHair, playing in 271 major league games before he turned 29. But Ludwick never gave any indication of being capable of putting up the kind of numbers he did when he broke out in 2008 to hit .299/.375/.591 with 37 homers.
Unfortunately for Ludwick, he was never able to reproduce those kind of numbers again and has since bounced around the majors looking for a home.
Could LaHair's career follow a similar path? Cubs fans hope not, but baseball history is littered with players who have one magical season that they are never able to duplicate.
If this is to be LaHair's magical season, its too bad its going to be wasted in a rebuilding year. But the Cubs are hoping that LaHair is legit and can learn to play left field for when Anthony Rizzo is ready.
After languishing in the minors for 9 seasons, the Cubs are the first team to finally give LaHair a chance to show what he can do on the major league stage. So far, the results have been spectacular.
Through 20 games, LaHair has a slash line of .390/.471/.780 for an obscene OPS of 1.251 and an OPS+ of 241. Despite missing the first 3 games of the season due to injury, he still leads the team in homers (5) and doubles (8), and is tied for the team lead for RBIs (14) with Starlin Castro and walks (10) with David DeJesus.
The only blemish on his ridiculous start is that he has also struck out 25 times in just 59 at bats, a sign that his average will likely drop. However, his power is legit (he hit 38 homers in AAA last season) and he certainly looks like a keeper for the Cubs.
LaHair's performance reminds me of another late-bloomer who broke onto the scene with a big season in his age 29 year--Ryan Ludwick.
Ludwick had a bit more experience than LaHair, playing in 271 major league games before he turned 29. But Ludwick never gave any indication of being capable of putting up the kind of numbers he did when he broke out in 2008 to hit .299/.375/.591 with 37 homers.
Unfortunately for Ludwick, he was never able to reproduce those kind of numbers again and has since bounced around the majors looking for a home.
Could LaHair's career follow a similar path? Cubs fans hope not, but baseball history is littered with players who have one magical season that they are never able to duplicate.
If this is to be LaHair's magical season, its too bad its going to be wasted in a rebuilding year. But the Cubs are hoping that LaHair is legit and can learn to play left field for when Anthony Rizzo is ready.
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