With the trade of Sean Marshall and Jeff Samardzija likely locking up a spot in the starting rotation, the Cubs bullpen has lost two of its key members from 2011. Who will fill their voids is anybody's guess.
Let's start with what we do know. The Cubs have 7 bullpen spots to fill, two of which, barring injury, are earmarked for closer Carlos Marmol and setup man Kerry Wood. After that, things get murkier.
Its likely that the loser of the battle for the 5th starter spot will end up in the bullpen. If that decision were made today, Randy Wells would be your man. Chris Volstad has outpitched him so far this spring and Wells has more experience coming out of the pen.
Rodrigo Lopez could also be a candidate for the pen, as he has pitched well this spring and filled in nicely for the Cubs last year when their rotation was beset by injuries. However, as he is on a minor league contract, the Cubs will likely send him to AAA to keep him stretched out in case injuries hit again.
The Cubs will likely carry at least one lefthander in the pen and the leading candidate at this point is Scott Maine. Maine only has 20 innings of major league experience, but has good minor league stats and has given up only one earned run in 5.2 IP so far this spring.
Righthander Rafael Dolis is also a leading candidate for the pen. He has yet to give up a run this spring and pitched well coming out of the pen for AA Tennessee last year. He is not a high strikeout guy, but keeps the ball on the ground and would be good for those situations when you need a double-play.
Rule 5 pick Lendy Castillo has impressed Cubs management and, seeing as the Cubs are rebuilding, they could carry him on the active roster for the year so that they don't lose him. He has not pitched above A ball, but has shown enough this spring that he may be worth keeping around.
Lefty James Russell pitched 67.2 innings with the Cubs in 2011 and could be the club's second lefthander out of the pen. While he is not a dominant pitcher, he showed improvement last year, dropping his ERA from 4.96 in 2010 to 4.12 in 2011.
Casey Coleman is seemingly out of consideration for the starting rotation, but could still be a useful arm out of the pen. However, like Rodrigo Lopez, the Cubs may want to keep him stretched out at AAA in case of emergency.
Manuel Corpas, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery in August 2010, has had a nice spring, giving up 3 runs while striking out 7 in 6 IP. However, he is currently off the 40 man roster and the Cubs may want him to begin the year at AAA Iowa to make sure he is healthy before bringing him back to the majors.
Marcos Mateo pitched pretty well for the Cubs down the stretch last year, with a 4.30 ERA and 25 K's in 23 IP. He hasn't had a particularly strong spring, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) in 6 IP and could be ticketed back to AAA to start the year.
38 year old LOOGY Trever Miller is another lefty option for the pen. He was signed on a minor league deal and hasn't been particularly effective this spring. He could be a good mentor to youngsters like Scott Maine, but I don't see him making the squad.
A final option is Blake Parker, who has put up some decent stats in the minors (3.00 ERA and 323 K's in 300 IP), but has yet to get a taste of the big leagues. He's given up 5 runs in 8.1 IP this spring, which may not be good enough to earn him a spot.
Prediction
The Cubs will probably go with a bullpen of Marmol, Wood, Wells, Maine, Dolis, Castillo and Parker, at least to start the season. For those of you in fantasy leagues, Marmol and Wood are the only ones to concern yourself with, but Dolis is intriguing as a potential closer-in-waiting.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Should we be concerned about Carlos Marmol?
Let's face it, Carlos Marmol is having a tough Spring. In 5.1 IP, he has allowed 7 hits, 4 walks, 3 hit batters and 7 earned runs. Sounds more like a pitching line from Ebby Calvin "Nuke" LaLoosh that that of the Cubs closer.
To add injury to insult, Marmol was removed from yesterday's outing due to cramping in his hand. Marmol was sent for a precautionary MRI, which, according to Carrie Muskat, revealed no nerve damage.
So, what is the cause of Marmol's struggles? Well, if the MRI is correct, we can rule out a hidden injury. Perhaps its just a matter of Carlos readjusting after scrapping his cutter and, to be fair, he has made 3 straight scoreless appearances.
Let's face it, Marmol is probably going to be a hot and cold pitcher for his entire career. He goes through periods where he cannot find the plate and then others where he is lights out. He will probably give Manager Dale Sveum and Pitching Coach Chris Bosio ulcers before its all said and done and its quite possible that he could be traded this July.
For now though, I wouldn't be too concerned about Marmol. It is still spring after all and the stats don't mean as much as getting your work in. But, if his struggles carry over into the regular season, perhaps its time to start auditioning new pitchers for the closer role, as Marmol should not be in the Cubs long-term plans.
To add injury to insult, Marmol was removed from yesterday's outing due to cramping in his hand. Marmol was sent for a precautionary MRI, which, according to Carrie Muskat, revealed no nerve damage.
So, what is the cause of Marmol's struggles? Well, if the MRI is correct, we can rule out a hidden injury. Perhaps its just a matter of Carlos readjusting after scrapping his cutter and, to be fair, he has made 3 straight scoreless appearances.
Let's face it, Marmol is probably going to be a hot and cold pitcher for his entire career. He goes through periods where he cannot find the plate and then others where he is lights out. He will probably give Manager Dale Sveum and Pitching Coach Chris Bosio ulcers before its all said and done and its quite possible that he could be traded this July.
For now though, I wouldn't be too concerned about Marmol. It is still spring after all and the stats don't mean as much as getting your work in. But, if his struggles carry over into the regular season, perhaps its time to start auditioning new pitchers for the closer role, as Marmol should not be in the Cubs long-term plans.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Spring Training Battle #3: The Bench
With opening day a little over two weeks away, players are starting to sweat out the final cuts as crunch time approaches. The Cubs starting lineup is pretty much set, with C Geovany Soto, 1B Bryan LaHair, 2B Darwin Barney, SS Starlin Castro, 3B Ian Stewart, LF Alfonso Soriano, CF Marlon Byrd and RF David DeJesus.
However, there are still battles to be won or lost for the final bench spots. It appears that Joe Mather has beaten out Tony Campana for the 5th outfield spot (with Reed Johnson being the 4th outfielder) and Jeff Baker will man one of the UT spots. That leaves one backup infielder and the backup catcher to be decided.
Utility Infield Spot
As of right now, Blake DeWitt appears to have the edge in this battle over Alfredo Amezaga and Adrian Cardenas. DeWitt has hit .333/.419/.519 this spring albeit in just 27 at bats, but is also a career .260 hitter in the majors. He primarily plays second and third, which would be OK as Baker can backup at first and Barney can backup at short.
The problem with DeWitt is that he is no longer on the Cubs' 40 man roster, as he was designated for assignment when the Cubs claimed Cardenas over the winter. This may be why rumors are floating around that the Cubs are looking to trade DeWitt.
If DeWitt is traded, then the choice comes down to Amezaga and Cardenas. Amezaga has major league experience, hitting .247/.307/.333 in 9 seasons (1408 at bats). He is capable of playing short and might make more sense than using Barney as a backup to Castro.
Cardenas, on the other hand, has no major league experience, but has hit .303/.368/.413 in the minors and is also capable of playing short.
It may come down to who hits better this spring, in which case Amezaga is the clear favorite, as he has hit .417/.481/.500 versus Cardenas' .231/.310/.538.
Prediction: DeWitt is traded to the Phillies and Amezaga wins the utility spot, with Cardenas beginning the year at AAA.
Backup Catcher
This is basically a two horse race between Steve Clevenger and Welington Castillo. Clevenger is a career .308/.369/.421 hitter in the minors and is hitting .320/.345/.640 so far this spring. His defense is a bit suspect as he has only thrown out runners at a 28% rate in his minor league career. However, he does have one other thing going for him in that he hits lefthanded, while Soto and Castillo are righties.
Castillo is a career .265/.323/.430 hitter in the minors, but is considered better defensively and throws out runners at a 37% clip. He is hitting .346/.393/.538 this spring.
My thinking here is that the Cubs could eventually trade Soto and therefore need to develop Castillo as his potential replacement. Thus, they are more likely to send him down to AAA where he can get regular playing time. That, combined with Clevenger's stronger minor league hitting record and his left handedness, makes Clevenger the likely choice as the backup.
Prediction: Steve Clevenger will backup Soto to start the season. However, Soto will be traded in July and Castillo will take over the starting role at that time.
Thus, the bench will consist of Jeff Baker, Alfredo Amezaga, Reed Johnson, Joe Mather and Steve Clevenger. Next up, I will take a look at the Cubs bullpen battle.
However, there are still battles to be won or lost for the final bench spots. It appears that Joe Mather has beaten out Tony Campana for the 5th outfield spot (with Reed Johnson being the 4th outfielder) and Jeff Baker will man one of the UT spots. That leaves one backup infielder and the backup catcher to be decided.
Utility Infield Spot
As of right now, Blake DeWitt appears to have the edge in this battle over Alfredo Amezaga and Adrian Cardenas. DeWitt has hit .333/.419/.519 this spring albeit in just 27 at bats, but is also a career .260 hitter in the majors. He primarily plays second and third, which would be OK as Baker can backup at first and Barney can backup at short.
The problem with DeWitt is that he is no longer on the Cubs' 40 man roster, as he was designated for assignment when the Cubs claimed Cardenas over the winter. This may be why rumors are floating around that the Cubs are looking to trade DeWitt.
If DeWitt is traded, then the choice comes down to Amezaga and Cardenas. Amezaga has major league experience, hitting .247/.307/.333 in 9 seasons (1408 at bats). He is capable of playing short and might make more sense than using Barney as a backup to Castro.
Cardenas, on the other hand, has no major league experience, but has hit .303/.368/.413 in the minors and is also capable of playing short.
It may come down to who hits better this spring, in which case Amezaga is the clear favorite, as he has hit .417/.481/.500 versus Cardenas' .231/.310/.538.
Prediction: DeWitt is traded to the Phillies and Amezaga wins the utility spot, with Cardenas beginning the year at AAA.
Backup Catcher
This is basically a two horse race between Steve Clevenger and Welington Castillo. Clevenger is a career .308/.369/.421 hitter in the minors and is hitting .320/.345/.640 so far this spring. His defense is a bit suspect as he has only thrown out runners at a 28% rate in his minor league career. However, he does have one other thing going for him in that he hits lefthanded, while Soto and Castillo are righties.
Castillo is a career .265/.323/.430 hitter in the minors, but is considered better defensively and throws out runners at a 37% clip. He is hitting .346/.393/.538 this spring.
My thinking here is that the Cubs could eventually trade Soto and therefore need to develop Castillo as his potential replacement. Thus, they are more likely to send him down to AAA where he can get regular playing time. That, combined with Clevenger's stronger minor league hitting record and his left handedness, makes Clevenger the likely choice as the backup.
Prediction: Steve Clevenger will backup Soto to start the season. However, Soto will be traded in July and Castillo will take over the starting role at that time.
Thus, the bench will consist of Jeff Baker, Alfredo Amezaga, Reed Johnson, Joe Mather and Steve Clevenger. Next up, I will take a look at the Cubs bullpen battle.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Jeff Samardzija is turning the Cubs pitching plans upside down.
Per Paul Sullivan, Dale Sveum says that Jeff Samardzija is a near lock for the rotation. Which means that the final rotation spot comes down to Randy Wells, Chris Volstad, Rodrigo Lopez and Travis Wood.
I started this spring with the prediction that the Cubs would start the season with Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Randy Wells and Chris Volstad in the rotation, with Samardzija in the pen and Wood in AAA. However, I have been pleasantly surprised by Samardzija's performance so far and feel he deserves a spot in the rotation.
There's no doubt that Shark has some of the best stuff of all the Cubs pitchers, his problem has always been controlling it. However, with zero walks in now 10 spring innings, it appears that he has learned to harness his stuff better.
But that leaves us with the question of who will win the 5th spot and what will become of the losers.
Well, with Travis Wood getting shelled again today, we can pretty much rule him out and Lopez was signed to a minor league deal as pitching depth and is likely to start the season in AAA.
Thus it comes down to Wells or Volstad.
Both have pitched well this spring and are equally deserving of the 5th spot. So, it could come down to who the Cubs think would do better in the long reliever role.
Neither Wells nor Volstad have much experience relieving in the majors. Wells has 4 relief appearances to his credit, all in 2008, while Volstad only has one relief appearance.
However, Wells did have 101 games as a reliever in the minors (Volstad only had 1) and thus could be more comfortable making the switch. Of course, the Cubs could also trade Wells, as he was rumored to be on the block over the winter.
In any case, Samardzija has turned what should have been an easy decision into a difficult one. A nice problem to have.
I started this spring with the prediction that the Cubs would start the season with Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Randy Wells and Chris Volstad in the rotation, with Samardzija in the pen and Wood in AAA. However, I have been pleasantly surprised by Samardzija's performance so far and feel he deserves a spot in the rotation.
There's no doubt that Shark has some of the best stuff of all the Cubs pitchers, his problem has always been controlling it. However, with zero walks in now 10 spring innings, it appears that he has learned to harness his stuff better.
But that leaves us with the question of who will win the 5th spot and what will become of the losers.
Well, with Travis Wood getting shelled again today, we can pretty much rule him out and Lopez was signed to a minor league deal as pitching depth and is likely to start the season in AAA.
Thus it comes down to Wells or Volstad.
Both have pitched well this spring and are equally deserving of the 5th spot. So, it could come down to who the Cubs think would do better in the long reliever role.
Neither Wells nor Volstad have much experience relieving in the majors. Wells has 4 relief appearances to his credit, all in 2008, while Volstad only has one relief appearance.
However, Wells did have 101 games as a reliever in the minors (Volstad only had 1) and thus could be more comfortable making the switch. Of course, the Cubs could also trade Wells, as he was rumored to be on the block over the winter.
In any case, Samardzija has turned what should have been an easy decision into a difficult one. A nice problem to have.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Spring Training Battle update: Jeff Samardzija and Chris Volstad looking good
I know its still early and most of the Cubs starters have made two (or fewer) starts, but so far I have been impressed with the performances of Jeff Samardzija and Chris Volstad and they may have taken the lead for the last two rotation spots.
Samardzija, despite giving up 2 runs in 3 innings his last time out, has allowed just those 2 runs in 6 IP so far, while striking out 6. However, that is not what impresses me the most. What does impress me is that he has 0, yes ZERO, walks. This is a guy who has averaged 5.3 BB/9 in his career, including a 5.1 mark last year in his "breakout" year. If he keeps this up, it only bodes well for the Cubs and their starting rotation.
Volstad has been equally impressive, giving up no runs and just 3 hits in his 6 IP. His sinker has been working well, giving him a 2.50 GO/AO ratio so far to go along with 4 K's. Those of you thinking he was just a throw-in in the Carlos Zambrano trade may have to think again.
While those two may have a leg up on the competition, Randy Wells has been doing his best to keep up. Including today's start, in which he shut out the Brewers over 3 IP, giving up just 2 hits, Wells has now pitched 5.2 scoreless innings. He's not missing many bats, as he only has 1 K so far, but has been working his sinker as well, with a GO/AO ratio of 5.0.
On the other end of the spectrum, its looking more and more like Travis Wood will be starting the year in AAA. After giving up one run on 3 hits and 2 walks his first time out, Wood was lit up today, giving up 6 runs (5 earned) in 0.1 IP. There is still time for him to turn things around, but he has to put together some solid starts to get back into the picture.
So, with 3 weeks to go before opening day, here is how the rotation is shaping up:
In any case, the Cubs may have a difficult decision looming. Stay tuned....
Samardzija, despite giving up 2 runs in 3 innings his last time out, has allowed just those 2 runs in 6 IP so far, while striking out 6. However, that is not what impresses me the most. What does impress me is that he has 0, yes ZERO, walks. This is a guy who has averaged 5.3 BB/9 in his career, including a 5.1 mark last year in his "breakout" year. If he keeps this up, it only bodes well for the Cubs and their starting rotation.
Volstad has been equally impressive, giving up no runs and just 3 hits in his 6 IP. His sinker has been working well, giving him a 2.50 GO/AO ratio so far to go along with 4 K's. Those of you thinking he was just a throw-in in the Carlos Zambrano trade may have to think again.
While those two may have a leg up on the competition, Randy Wells has been doing his best to keep up. Including today's start, in which he shut out the Brewers over 3 IP, giving up just 2 hits, Wells has now pitched 5.2 scoreless innings. He's not missing many bats, as he only has 1 K so far, but has been working his sinker as well, with a GO/AO ratio of 5.0.
On the other end of the spectrum, its looking more and more like Travis Wood will be starting the year in AAA. After giving up one run on 3 hits and 2 walks his first time out, Wood was lit up today, giving up 6 runs (5 earned) in 0.1 IP. There is still time for him to turn things around, but he has to put together some solid starts to get back into the picture.
So, with 3 weeks to go before opening day, here is how the rotation is shaping up:
- Matt Garza
- Ryan Dempster
- Paul Maholm
- Jeff Samardzija
- Chris Volstad
In any case, the Cubs may have a difficult decision looming. Stay tuned....
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Projecting the National League Central Standings
As a follow up to the article I posted back on January 15, where I used projected stats and Bill James' Pythagorean Expectation formula to predict the Cubs record for 2012, I decided to take it a step further and try to predict the standings for the NL Central, following the same methodology. In addition, it gave me a chance to update the predicted wins for the Cubs, based on the updated projections for their hitters and pitchers.
Like before, I used the projections of BaseballHQ.com for each team, removed the worst hitters and pitchers to get down to around 5500 at bats and 1450 IP, which are the team averages for the NL for 2011. These are then plugged into the Pythagorean expectation formula to get that team's projected winning percentage, which, when applied to 162 games, gives that teams projected wins (and losses) for the year.
Thus, without further ado, here are the projected standings for the NL Central:
As you can see from the above, there is basically a 3 team race for first and a 3 team race for last. About what we would expect, given the level of talent on each team. Before doing this analysis, I would have predicted the Reds to finish first in the division, based on their offseason moves and the Cardinals (Albert Pujols) and Brewers (Prince Fielder) losing big pieces of their respective offenses.
The Cubs runs scored and runs allowed changed only slightly from the 665 and 736 predicted previously, but it still results in only 73 wins. I actually expect the Astros to be worse than predicted above and would be surprised if they win more than 65 games, so the Cubs will probably battle the Pirates for 4th, just like in 2011.
Like before, I used the projections of BaseballHQ.com for each team, removed the worst hitters and pitchers to get down to around 5500 at bats and 1450 IP, which are the team averages for the NL for 2011. These are then plugged into the Pythagorean expectation formula to get that team's projected winning percentage, which, when applied to 162 games, gives that teams projected wins (and losses) for the year.
Thus, without further ado, here are the projected standings for the NL Central:
| Runs | Runs | Projected | Projected | |||
| Scored | Allowed | Wins | Losses | Win % | ||
| Milwaukee | 761 | 653 | 93 | 69 | 0.574 | |
| Cincinnati | 754 | 675 | 90 | 72 | 0.556 | |
| St. Louis | 716 | 657 | 88 | 74 | 0.543 | |
| Pittsburgh | 662 | 722 | 74 | 88 | 0.457 | |
| Chicago | 666 | 732 | 73 | 89 | 0.451 | |
| Houston | 629 | 721 | 70 | 90 | 0.432 |
As you can see from the above, there is basically a 3 team race for first and a 3 team race for last. About what we would expect, given the level of talent on each team. Before doing this analysis, I would have predicted the Reds to finish first in the division, based on their offseason moves and the Cardinals (Albert Pujols) and Brewers (Prince Fielder) losing big pieces of their respective offenses.
The Cubs runs scored and runs allowed changed only slightly from the 665 and 736 predicted previously, but it still results in only 73 wins. I actually expect the Astros to be worse than predicted above and would be surprised if they win more than 65 games, so the Cubs will probably battle the Pirates for 4th, just like in 2011.
Sunday, March 4, 2012
What to make of Bryan LaHair?
Things are finally looking up for Chicago Cubs first baseman Bryan LaHair.
After spending 5 1/2 years at AAA, LaHair is finally getting his shot. Call it being in the right place at the right time, but the Cubs, deep into a rebuilding process, have the luxury of giving LaHair a chance to prove himself at the major league level. Something that hasn't happened since he played 45 games for Seattle back in 2008.
The Cubs haven't always been in a position to give players a shot like this. Back in 2008, the Cubs gave little known infielder Casey McGehee just 9 games at the major league level to "prove himself", he failed and the Cubs put him on waivers after the season. Milwaukee claimed him and he rewarded the Brewers with two solid years at third, with an OPS over .800, before falling a bit flat last year.
What can we expect from Bryan LaHair? Short answer, hell if I know, but I'm willing to try to figure it out.
In 9 minor league seasons, LaHair has a career slash line of .295/.362/.503, including .297/.368/.528 in 6 years at AAA. Granted, all of those years at AAA have been in the hitter friendly PCL.
In 65 major league games, LaHair has hit .265/.335/.395, including a .288/.377/.508 line in just 59 at bats last year. He has done ok, but its not a large enough sample size to draw any conclusions.
He put up some monstrous numbers last year at Iowa, with a .331/.405/.664 line, including 38 homers in just 456 at bats. Using one of the numerous Major League Equivalency calculators onine, that projects to a .267/.331/.505 line with 28 homers, pretty good production for a first baseman.
However, 2011 was LaHair's career year in AAA, which skews the number some. Let's take a look at his MLE, based on his average AAA season, even taking into account the ballpark affects of playing in Tacoma, which is not as hitter friendly as Iowa.
In the equivalent of 3 years at Tacoma, LaHair averaged a .284/.352/.480 line with 20 homers, which produces a MLE of .251/.307/.406 with 16 homers. In 2 years at Iowa, LaHair averaged a .320/.396/.613 line with 32 homers, which produces a .259/.323/.470 MLE. Averaging the MLE's together gives one a .254/.311/.436 line with 20 homers, which is in line with what Minor League Ball projects for him (.250/.330/.450 with 20 homers), assuming he gets enough at bats.
Overall, not bad, but not exactly great numbers. This is pretty much what Tyler Colvin produced for the Cubs in 2010, at age 24, which may be enough to keep Anthony Rizzo in the minors until September.
If your looking for hope for bigger and better things, Baseball Prospectus, using their PECOTA system, lists his comparables as Leon Durham, Richie Sexson and David Ortiz. I certainly don't see LaHair turning into the next David Ortiz, but I think most Cubs fans would be happy with Durham's career line of .277/.356/.477 (minus the error in the 1984 NLCS).
Based on the above, I'm going to project that LaHair gets around 450 at bats this year, hits roughly .260/.325/.475 with 20+ homeruns (and 30+ doubles). The Cubs will then sell high on him next winter and use him to acquire a pitcher.
After spending 5 1/2 years at AAA, LaHair is finally getting his shot. Call it being in the right place at the right time, but the Cubs, deep into a rebuilding process, have the luxury of giving LaHair a chance to prove himself at the major league level. Something that hasn't happened since he played 45 games for Seattle back in 2008.
The Cubs haven't always been in a position to give players a shot like this. Back in 2008, the Cubs gave little known infielder Casey McGehee just 9 games at the major league level to "prove himself", he failed and the Cubs put him on waivers after the season. Milwaukee claimed him and he rewarded the Brewers with two solid years at third, with an OPS over .800, before falling a bit flat last year.
What can we expect from Bryan LaHair? Short answer, hell if I know, but I'm willing to try to figure it out.
In 9 minor league seasons, LaHair has a career slash line of .295/.362/.503, including .297/.368/.528 in 6 years at AAA. Granted, all of those years at AAA have been in the hitter friendly PCL.
In 65 major league games, LaHair has hit .265/.335/.395, including a .288/.377/.508 line in just 59 at bats last year. He has done ok, but its not a large enough sample size to draw any conclusions.
He put up some monstrous numbers last year at Iowa, with a .331/.405/.664 line, including 38 homers in just 456 at bats. Using one of the numerous Major League Equivalency calculators onine, that projects to a .267/.331/.505 line with 28 homers, pretty good production for a first baseman.
However, 2011 was LaHair's career year in AAA, which skews the number some. Let's take a look at his MLE, based on his average AAA season, even taking into account the ballpark affects of playing in Tacoma, which is not as hitter friendly as Iowa.
In the equivalent of 3 years at Tacoma, LaHair averaged a .284/.352/.480 line with 20 homers, which produces a MLE of .251/.307/.406 with 16 homers. In 2 years at Iowa, LaHair averaged a .320/.396/.613 line with 32 homers, which produces a .259/.323/.470 MLE. Averaging the MLE's together gives one a .254/.311/.436 line with 20 homers, which is in line with what Minor League Ball projects for him (.250/.330/.450 with 20 homers), assuming he gets enough at bats.
Overall, not bad, but not exactly great numbers. This is pretty much what Tyler Colvin produced for the Cubs in 2010, at age 24, which may be enough to keep Anthony Rizzo in the minors until September.
If your looking for hope for bigger and better things, Baseball Prospectus, using their PECOTA system, lists his comparables as Leon Durham, Richie Sexson and David Ortiz. I certainly don't see LaHair turning into the next David Ortiz, but I think most Cubs fans would be happy with Durham's career line of .277/.356/.477 (minus the error in the 1984 NLCS).
Based on the above, I'm going to project that LaHair gets around 450 at bats this year, hits roughly .260/.325/.475 with 20+ homeruns (and 30+ doubles). The Cubs will then sell high on him next winter and use him to acquire a pitcher.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Spring Training Battle #2: Second Base
After taking a look at the starting pitching battle last week, its time to look at the other big battle shaping up for this spring, the battle for the second base job.
Darwin Barney is the incumbent, but there are questions about his ability and whether he would be better suited for an utility position. Adrian Cardenas, recently acquired off waivers from the Oakland A's, should be Barney's main competition for the job, but there are questions about his defense. Meanwhile, Blake DeWitt, who was demoted to AAA Iowa to make room for Cardenas on the 40-man roster, could still factor into the equation.
Here's a look at what each of them bring to the table:
Darwin Barney
Barney hit a respectable .276 in 2011, but he seemed to wear down as the season progressed, hitting only .238 in the second half, compared to .306 in the first half. In addition, he drew only 22 walks in 581 plate appearances, which produce only a .313 OBP for the year. He put together a decent year defensively, with a .981 fielding percentage and a 4.50 range factor, both of which put him in the middle of the pack in the NL. He needs to cut down on his errors, as his 12 error in 2011 ranked 4th in the NL, but some of that can be attributed to rookie mistakes. The job is probably his to lose, but as the primary backup to Starlin Castro at short, the Cubs are probably wondering if he can do both.
Adrian Cardenas
A career .303/.368/.413 hitter in 6 minor league seasons, the former first round pick certainly has shown an ability to hit in the minors. In fact his career minor league numbers are superior to those of Barney (.287/.335/.376). His career .976 fielding percentage and 4.54 range factor in the minors is comparable to Barney's 2011 stats, however Barney was still transitioning to the second base role after playing mostly shortstop in the minors. Cardenas has also played short, third and outfield in the minors and could be considered a utility type as well.
Blake DeWitt
Gone but not forgotten, DeWitt will be battling for any role he can get with the Cubs, but his best chance may be to overtake Barney or Cardenas for the second base job. The main piece acquired from the Dodgers in the Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot trade, DeWitt hasn't shown much with the Cubs the last two years, hitting just .258/.309/.396. His career fielding percentage at second of .979 is comparable to those of Barney and Cardenas, but his range factor of 4.29 is a bit lower. He is fighting a major uphill battle and one that he likely won't win.
Prediction
Barney will likely begin the season as the starting second baseman, with Cardenas filling the utility role. However, if he struggles, look for Cardenas to get a shot.
Darwin Barney is the incumbent, but there are questions about his ability and whether he would be better suited for an utility position. Adrian Cardenas, recently acquired off waivers from the Oakland A's, should be Barney's main competition for the job, but there are questions about his defense. Meanwhile, Blake DeWitt, who was demoted to AAA Iowa to make room for Cardenas on the 40-man roster, could still factor into the equation.
Here's a look at what each of them bring to the table:
Darwin Barney
Barney hit a respectable .276 in 2011, but he seemed to wear down as the season progressed, hitting only .238 in the second half, compared to .306 in the first half. In addition, he drew only 22 walks in 581 plate appearances, which produce only a .313 OBP for the year. He put together a decent year defensively, with a .981 fielding percentage and a 4.50 range factor, both of which put him in the middle of the pack in the NL. He needs to cut down on his errors, as his 12 error in 2011 ranked 4th in the NL, but some of that can be attributed to rookie mistakes. The job is probably his to lose, but as the primary backup to Starlin Castro at short, the Cubs are probably wondering if he can do both.
Adrian Cardenas
A career .303/.368/.413 hitter in 6 minor league seasons, the former first round pick certainly has shown an ability to hit in the minors. In fact his career minor league numbers are superior to those of Barney (.287/.335/.376). His career .976 fielding percentage and 4.54 range factor in the minors is comparable to Barney's 2011 stats, however Barney was still transitioning to the second base role after playing mostly shortstop in the minors. Cardenas has also played short, third and outfield in the minors and could be considered a utility type as well.
Blake DeWitt
Gone but not forgotten, DeWitt will be battling for any role he can get with the Cubs, but his best chance may be to overtake Barney or Cardenas for the second base job. The main piece acquired from the Dodgers in the Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot trade, DeWitt hasn't shown much with the Cubs the last two years, hitting just .258/.309/.396. His career fielding percentage at second of .979 is comparable to those of Barney and Cardenas, but his range factor of 4.29 is a bit lower. He is fighting a major uphill battle and one that he likely won't win.
Prediction
Barney will likely begin the season as the starting second baseman, with Cardenas filling the utility role. However, if he struggles, look for Cardenas to get a shot.
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