Phil Rogers gets it.
A little over a year ago I was so miffed by the Cubs giving up 5 players, including 3 of their Top 10 prospects, for Matt Garza (and a prospect) that I wrote not ONE, but TWO articles criticizing the move.
Now the Cubs are in between a rock and a hard place concerning Garza, they can either sign him to an extension, at the risk of him becoming the next Carlos Zambrano, or they can trade him and get less in return than they gave up.
Basically, on his way out the door, Jim Hendry made sure that he made at least one more move to screw up the Cubs' future.
You can say that the Cubs got the better end of the deal, because none of the players they gave up had much impact in 2011, while Garza was the Cubs' best starter. But that is not the point.
The point is that, even with Garza, the Cubs finished in 5th place in the NL Central, while the Tampa Rays made the playoffs. Sure, none of the players the Cubs gave up really helped the Rays win, but they improved the team's minor league depth and, if just one of the players becomes an above average regular for the Rays, it will have been worth it.
The Rays were able to deal Garza, because they had young stud Jeremy Hellickson waiting in the wings. When was the last time the Cubs were able to trade a starting pitcher because they had a younger (and better) pitcher waiting in the wings?
The Cubs need to turn their minor league system around so that they are the ones trading the Garza's of the world for prospects and, with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer at the helm, it appears that they are on the right track.
The next 3 to 5 years will be the true test of the new regime and we, as fans, need to be patient for this new approach to bear fruit. Just as the team is doing, we need to get out of the "win now" way of thinking and allow the process of building from within to work.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Spring Training Battle #1: Starting Rotation
With Spring Training already underway, its time to look at some of the key spring battles for the Chicago Cubs, starting with the biggest battle of all, the starting rotation.
Barring any last minute trades, the first 3 spots in the Cubs rotation are pretty much set. Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm are locks to fill those slots.
Thus, the battle will be for the final two spots in the rotation, with 5 candidates vying for those spots: Randy Wells, Chris Volstad, Travis Wood, Jeff Samardzija and Casey Coleman.
After a strong rookie year, Randy Wells has seen his numbers slip each of the last two years, which has put his rotation spot in jeopardy. His ERA+ has dropped from 146 in 2009, to 99 in 2010 to 78 last year. Back in November, the Cubs indicated that they were open to trading Wells, but nothing ever materialized. If it appears that Wells is going to miss out on a rotation spot this spring, its likely that the Cubs will re-open trade discussions.
Chris Volstad, who was acquired in the Carlos Zambrano trade, is another pitcher who has been unable to repeat his rookie success. After posting an ERA+ of 151 in 84.1 IP in 2008, he has failed to post an ERA+ higher than 91 the last 3 years. He did show some signs of life at the end of last year when he posted an ERA of 4.04 in 11 starts after the All Star Break, but he needs to be more consistent.
Travis Wood, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, is another pitcher who had a good rookie year (116 ERA+ in 2010), but was unable to repeat his rookie success (81 ERA+ in 2011). One thing going against Wood is that he still has an option left, meaning the Cubs could send him to the minors to start the year. Thus, if it came down to him and say Volstad for the final spot, its likely that the Cubs would pick Volstad and send Wood to the minors.
Jeff Samardzija turned in a surprisingly good performance out of the pen in 2011, with a 132 ERA+ in 88 IP, earning him consideration for a starting role this spring. Manager Dale Sveum thinks he has a legitimate shot, saying "He might wow us -- you never know. That's a power arm, power body, obviously built to start." However, his control issues (5.1 BB/9 in 2011 and 5.3 BB/9 for his career) and his success out of the pen make it likely that he will return there for 2012.
Casey Coleman is a bit of a dark horse in this competition. With the recent acquisitions, Coleman's name rarely comes up in the discussion of who will be in the rotation, but he is someone you should definitely keep an eye on this spring. Like Volstad and Wood, Coleman has a nice rookie debut, posting a 104 ERA+ in 2010, before falling on hard times last year (61 ERA+). However, he actually improved his K/9 rate to 8.0 in 2011 from 4.3 in 2010 and pitched pretty well down the stretch (4.77 ERA in 5 September starts, including 30 K's in 26.1 IP). If he can cut down on his walks (4.9 BB/9 in 2011), as his minor league track record suggests he can (career 2.9 BB/9 in minors), he could surprise this spring.
PREDICTION
I predict that the Cubs will go with a starting rotation of Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Wells and Volstad, at least to start the season, with Samardzija moving back to the pen and Wood and Coleman heading to AAA. The good news is that the Cubs will have some pitching depth should injuries befall the team like last year. The bad news is that none of these pitchers will strike fear in the hearts of opponents.
Barring any last minute trades, the first 3 spots in the Cubs rotation are pretty much set. Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm are locks to fill those slots.
Thus, the battle will be for the final two spots in the rotation, with 5 candidates vying for those spots: Randy Wells, Chris Volstad, Travis Wood, Jeff Samardzija and Casey Coleman.
After a strong rookie year, Randy Wells has seen his numbers slip each of the last two years, which has put his rotation spot in jeopardy. His ERA+ has dropped from 146 in 2009, to 99 in 2010 to 78 last year. Back in November, the Cubs indicated that they were open to trading Wells, but nothing ever materialized. If it appears that Wells is going to miss out on a rotation spot this spring, its likely that the Cubs will re-open trade discussions.
Chris Volstad, who was acquired in the Carlos Zambrano trade, is another pitcher who has been unable to repeat his rookie success. After posting an ERA+ of 151 in 84.1 IP in 2008, he has failed to post an ERA+ higher than 91 the last 3 years. He did show some signs of life at the end of last year when he posted an ERA of 4.04 in 11 starts after the All Star Break, but he needs to be more consistent.
Travis Wood, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, is another pitcher who had a good rookie year (116 ERA+ in 2010), but was unable to repeat his rookie success (81 ERA+ in 2011). One thing going against Wood is that he still has an option left, meaning the Cubs could send him to the minors to start the year. Thus, if it came down to him and say Volstad for the final spot, its likely that the Cubs would pick Volstad and send Wood to the minors.
Jeff Samardzija turned in a surprisingly good performance out of the pen in 2011, with a 132 ERA+ in 88 IP, earning him consideration for a starting role this spring. Manager Dale Sveum thinks he has a legitimate shot, saying "He might wow us -- you never know. That's a power arm, power body, obviously built to start." However, his control issues (5.1 BB/9 in 2011 and 5.3 BB/9 for his career) and his success out of the pen make it likely that he will return there for 2012.
Casey Coleman is a bit of a dark horse in this competition. With the recent acquisitions, Coleman's name rarely comes up in the discussion of who will be in the rotation, but he is someone you should definitely keep an eye on this spring. Like Volstad and Wood, Coleman has a nice rookie debut, posting a 104 ERA+ in 2010, before falling on hard times last year (61 ERA+). However, he actually improved his K/9 rate to 8.0 in 2011 from 4.3 in 2010 and pitched pretty well down the stretch (4.77 ERA in 5 September starts, including 30 K's in 26.1 IP). If he can cut down on his walks (4.9 BB/9 in 2011), as his minor league track record suggests he can (career 2.9 BB/9 in minors), he could surprise this spring.
PREDICTION
I predict that the Cubs will go with a starting rotation of Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Wells and Volstad, at least to start the season, with Samardzija moving back to the pen and Wood and Coleman heading to AAA. The good news is that the Cubs will have some pitching depth should injuries befall the team like last year. The bad news is that none of these pitchers will strike fear in the hearts of opponents.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
2012 MLB Compostie Prospect List
Last year around this time, I put together a MLB Composite Prospect List, which combined the various Top 100 Prospect Lists from around the web into one composite list, based on points assigned to each ranking.
This year, I have decided to split off this project from the Billy Goat Blog, as it is more general baseball than Cubs related (the Cubs don't have a lot of Top 100 prospects).
As a result, I have put together a new website, the MLB Composite Prospect Index. On there you will find the 2012 MLB Composite Prospect List, as well as similar lists going back to 2008.
I hope you find this new site a good resource for your fantasy prep.
UPDATE: There was an error with the links on the new site. It has now been fixed. Sorry for any inconvenience.
This year, I have decided to split off this project from the Billy Goat Blog, as it is more general baseball than Cubs related (the Cubs don't have a lot of Top 100 prospects).
As a result, I have put together a new website, the MLB Composite Prospect Index. On there you will find the 2012 MLB Composite Prospect List, as well as similar lists going back to 2008.
I hope you find this new site a good resource for your fantasy prep.
UPDATE: There was an error with the links on the new site. It has now been fixed. Sorry for any inconvenience.
Cubs give up Chris Carpenter to Red Sox as compensation for Theo Epstein
As I predicted last week, the Cubs have agreed to send Chris Carpenter to the Red Sox as compensation for Theo Epstein according to Paul Sullivan. The Red Sox will also receive a PTBNL and the Cubs will receive a PTBNL.
Carpenter, who ranked 11th on the 2012 Cubs Composite Top Prospects list, has a fastball that sits in the 95 mph range and can reach 100, but has also dealt with control issues. He has a career 4.2 BB/9 in the minors, including a 6.4 mark in two seasons at AAA. He is a decent prospect, but does not project to be much more than a middle reliever.
With the addition of the PTBNL's from both sides, this is still not over. However, there is an April 15th deadline for determining these last two players and Red Sox GM Ben Cherrington expects resolution by the end of Spring Training.
Overall, its not a big loss for the Cubs and probably not what the Red Sox were hoping for in terms of "significant compensation", but its good to know that we can soon put this all behind us. As Theo said in a statement released today:
Carpenter, who ranked 11th on the 2012 Cubs Composite Top Prospects list, has a fastball that sits in the 95 mph range and can reach 100, but has also dealt with control issues. He has a career 4.2 BB/9 in the minors, including a 6.4 mark in two seasons at AAA. He is a decent prospect, but does not project to be much more than a middle reliever.
With the addition of the PTBNL's from both sides, this is still not over. However, there is an April 15th deadline for determining these last two players and Red Sox GM Ben Cherrington expects resolution by the end of Spring Training.
Overall, its not a big loss for the Cubs and probably not what the Red Sox were hoping for in terms of "significant compensation", but its good to know that we can soon put this all behind us. As Theo said in a statement released today:
"I am relieved that this process is over and particularly pleased that the teams were able to reach agreement on their own without intervention from MLB. I truly hope and believe that this resolution will benefit both clubs, as well as Chris, who is an extremely talented reliever joining a great organization at a time when there's some opportunity in the major league bullpen. More than anything, I'm excited that we can all move forward and focus exclusively on getting ready for the season. I wish Chris and the Red Sox nothing but the best in 2012 and beyond."With that issue settled, we can now focus on Spring Training and the upcoming season. Tomorrow, I will be unveiling my 2012 MLB Composite Top 100 Prospects list. In addition, over the next several weeks I will take a look at the Cubs' position battles for the spring, preview each of the NL Central teams and take a look at the Cubs new and improved minor league system.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Reviewing the Cubs Winter Moves.
For those of you still getting caught up on the Hot Stove happenings, here is a breakdown of the Cubs offseason moves as new President Theo Espstein and GM Jed Hoyer did their best to reconstruct the roster.
November 30, 2011 - Cubs sign David DeJesus (2 years, $10 million)
Overall a good signing for the Cubs. It gave them some flexibility with the outfielders and a potential leadoff man for the 2012 season. In addition, this move made it easier for the Cubs to make their next move.
December 8, 2011 - Cubs trade Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu to Rockies for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers.
Overall, I felt this was a fair trade for both sides. Both teams gave up players in Stewart and Colvin, who were coming off down years, who could probably use a change in scenery.
December 21, 2011 - Cubs trade Sean Marshall to Reds for Travis Wood and two minor leaguers.
I really didn't like this trade when it was announced. I thought that Marshall was never truly given a shot in the Cubs rotation and that Wood was not a good enough return. However, with Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes announced as the minor leaguers included in the deal, I have since warmed up to the deal (or at least I don't hate it as much).
Sappelt is a good hitter with some defensive limitations, who will likely end up as a fourth or fifth outfielder. He ranked 16th on the Reds top 30 prospect list, as ranked by Baseball America.
Torreyes is an above average hitter with a career .364 average in 627 at bats in the low minors. He doesn't have much power or speed, and his ability to make contact limits his walks, but if he keeps hitting, he could force himself into the Cubs second base future.
December 22, 2011 - Cubs sign Manuel Corpas (1 year, $1 million)
Not a significant move for the Cubs. Corpas had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and, if healthy, could earn a spot as a middle reliever for the Cubs.
January 3, 2012 - Cubs sign Reed Johnson (1 year, $1.15 million)
Johnson served as the Cubs 4th outfielder in 2011 and hit .309/.348/.467. He will assume the same role in 2012.
January 4, 2012 - Cubs trade Carlos Zambrano (and a pile of cash) for Chris Volstad
Good riddance, Big Z.
January 6, 2012 - Cubs trade Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na to Padres for Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates
Another good move for the Cubs. Although I like Cashner, I think he'll end up in the pen, while Rizzo should be a future fixture for the Cubs at first base.
January 10, 2012 - Cubs sign Paul Maholm (1 year, $4.75 million)
Maholm is a decent pitcher and the Cubs got him at a decent price. Although I speculated at the time that this could signal a Matt Garza trade, I now suspect the Randy Wells could be traded during the spring.
January 13, 2012 - Cubs sign Kerry Wood (1 year, $3.0 million plus 2013 option)
This was probably more of a PR move than anything else. At his age and salary, Wood is a bit of a luxury for a rebuilding team like the Cubs. Still, fans love him and he loves the Cubs.
February 2, 2012 - Cubs sign Cuban pitcher Gerardo Concepcion
Not the Cuban player the Cubs really wanted, but a good signing nonetheless. The Cubs are now focusing their attention on Concepcion's compatriot, Jorge Soler, but the competition will be pretty still for his services.
February 6, 2012 - Cubs claim Adrian Cardenas from the Oakland A's
Cardenas could compete for the starting second base job with Darwin Barney. As a result of this move, the Cubs designated for assignment Blake DeWitt, who has since cleared waivers and was sent to AAA Iowa.
Minor League Signings
Andy Sonnanstine, Joe Mather, Alfredo Amezaga, Jason Jaramillo, Rodrigo Lopez, Bobby Scales, Matt Tolbert, Edgar Gonzalez, Trever Miller and Ryan Rowland-Smith
Not much to see here, as most of these guys will just be organizational depth. Don't expect to hear much from these guys in 2012.
Overall, I think Theo and Jed did a good job this offseason building up the depth of the farm system. We all knew that the Cubs needed to rebuild and this is a good start.
November 30, 2011 - Cubs sign David DeJesus (2 years, $10 million)
Overall a good signing for the Cubs. It gave them some flexibility with the outfielders and a potential leadoff man for the 2012 season. In addition, this move made it easier for the Cubs to make their next move.
December 8, 2011 - Cubs trade Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu to Rockies for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers.
Overall, I felt this was a fair trade for both sides. Both teams gave up players in Stewart and Colvin, who were coming off down years, who could probably use a change in scenery.
December 21, 2011 - Cubs trade Sean Marshall to Reds for Travis Wood and two minor leaguers.
I really didn't like this trade when it was announced. I thought that Marshall was never truly given a shot in the Cubs rotation and that Wood was not a good enough return. However, with Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes announced as the minor leaguers included in the deal, I have since warmed up to the deal (or at least I don't hate it as much).
Sappelt is a good hitter with some defensive limitations, who will likely end up as a fourth or fifth outfielder. He ranked 16th on the Reds top 30 prospect list, as ranked by Baseball America.
Torreyes is an above average hitter with a career .364 average in 627 at bats in the low minors. He doesn't have much power or speed, and his ability to make contact limits his walks, but if he keeps hitting, he could force himself into the Cubs second base future.
December 22, 2011 - Cubs sign Manuel Corpas (1 year, $1 million)
Not a significant move for the Cubs. Corpas had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and, if healthy, could earn a spot as a middle reliever for the Cubs.
January 3, 2012 - Cubs sign Reed Johnson (1 year, $1.15 million)
Johnson served as the Cubs 4th outfielder in 2011 and hit .309/.348/.467. He will assume the same role in 2012.
January 4, 2012 - Cubs trade Carlos Zambrano (and a pile of cash) for Chris Volstad
Good riddance, Big Z.
January 6, 2012 - Cubs trade Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na to Padres for Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates
Another good move for the Cubs. Although I like Cashner, I think he'll end up in the pen, while Rizzo should be a future fixture for the Cubs at first base.
January 10, 2012 - Cubs sign Paul Maholm (1 year, $4.75 million)
Maholm is a decent pitcher and the Cubs got him at a decent price. Although I speculated at the time that this could signal a Matt Garza trade, I now suspect the Randy Wells could be traded during the spring.
January 13, 2012 - Cubs sign Kerry Wood (1 year, $3.0 million plus 2013 option)
This was probably more of a PR move than anything else. At his age and salary, Wood is a bit of a luxury for a rebuilding team like the Cubs. Still, fans love him and he loves the Cubs.
February 2, 2012 - Cubs sign Cuban pitcher Gerardo Concepcion
Not the Cuban player the Cubs really wanted, but a good signing nonetheless. The Cubs are now focusing their attention on Concepcion's compatriot, Jorge Soler, but the competition will be pretty still for his services.
February 6, 2012 - Cubs claim Adrian Cardenas from the Oakland A's
Cardenas could compete for the starting second base job with Darwin Barney. As a result of this move, the Cubs designated for assignment Blake DeWitt, who has since cleared waivers and was sent to AAA Iowa.
Minor League Signings
Andy Sonnanstine, Joe Mather, Alfredo Amezaga, Jason Jaramillo, Rodrigo Lopez, Bobby Scales, Matt Tolbert, Edgar Gonzalez, Trever Miller and Ryan Rowland-Smith
Not much to see here, as most of these guys will just be organizational depth. Don't expect to hear much from these guys in 2012.
Overall, I think Theo and Jed did a good job this offseason building up the depth of the farm system. We all knew that the Cubs needed to rebuild and this is a good start.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Scouting the Out-of-options Players
Every year teams enter spring training with some difficult decisions looming. One such decision involves players who are out of minor league options.
For those of you unfamiliar with this rule, the overly simplified version is that once a player is placed on the 40 man roster, he has 3 option years. A player is considered to have used one of those three options when he spends at least 20 days in the minors in any of those 3 seasons. Once a team has used up a player's options, he must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. Thus, a team is almost forced to keep a player who is out of options on their active roster or they will likely lose that player to another team.
This year, as they do every year around this time, MLBTradeRumors.com has published a list of players for each team who are out of options.
Looking at the Cubs, there are 4 players out of options: Marcos Mateo, Jeff Samardzija, Geovany Soto and Bryan LaHair. Of those 4, Samardzija, Soto and LaHair are virtual locks to make the opening day roster and thus their status has little effect. The bid decision looming for the Cubs is what to do with Mateo.
Mateo pitched fairly well for the Cubs in the first half of the season last year (4.30 ERA with 25 K's in 23 IP), before a forearm strain sidelined him and kept him off the major league roster for the rest of the year. He is not a top prospect and probably doesn't project as more than a middle reliever, but I think the Cubs will find a spot for him.
Of course, with the Cubs in rebuilding mode, they should be keeping an eye on other teams with out of option players as these guys sometimes end up on the trading block. Two names I am particularly interested in are Juan Francisco and Esmil Rogers.
Francisco has bounced back and forth between AAA and the majors the last few years and, with Scott Rolen injured, the Reds gave Francisco a long look at third base last September. He held his own down the stretch, posting a .270/.299/.514 slash line and could make the team as a reserve in 2012. However, he strikes out a lot and will likely battle Todd Frazier for a reserve role. Frazier may have an edge in his positional flexibility (he can play all 4 corner spots as well as second and short), but the Reds will likely take Francisco's status into account as well when making a decision.
If Frazier beats out Francisco, the Cubs should pounce on him. With Ian Stewart and Josh Vitters currently at the top of the Cubs third base depth chart, they could certainly use another option. He wouldn't cost much and would be another low risk/high reward type move for the team.
As for Rogers, he has started 22 games for the Rockies over the last few years, with generally poor results (6.24 ERA). He has a good fastball/curveball combination but needs to learn to better spot his pitches, as he just doesn't miss enough bats to be successful. In 2010, he posted a K/9 rate of 8.3, while walking only 3.3 batters per game. However, he gave up 11.8 H/9 in 2010 and matched that with an almost identical 11.9 mark in 2011.
Rogers still has good stuff, but will be competing with as many as 8 other pitchers for the last 3 spots in the Rockies rotation. Given his track history, he will likely miss out on a spot and the Cubs could swoop in and get him for cheap.
If the Cubs truly are rebuilding, they need to take advantage of any and all opportunities that present themselves and monitoring the out of option market is just one more way of acquiring cheap talent.
For those of you unfamiliar with this rule, the overly simplified version is that once a player is placed on the 40 man roster, he has 3 option years. A player is considered to have used one of those three options when he spends at least 20 days in the minors in any of those 3 seasons. Once a team has used up a player's options, he must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. Thus, a team is almost forced to keep a player who is out of options on their active roster or they will likely lose that player to another team.
This year, as they do every year around this time, MLBTradeRumors.com has published a list of players for each team who are out of options.
Looking at the Cubs, there are 4 players out of options: Marcos Mateo, Jeff Samardzija, Geovany Soto and Bryan LaHair. Of those 4, Samardzija, Soto and LaHair are virtual locks to make the opening day roster and thus their status has little effect. The bid decision looming for the Cubs is what to do with Mateo.
Mateo pitched fairly well for the Cubs in the first half of the season last year (4.30 ERA with 25 K's in 23 IP), before a forearm strain sidelined him and kept him off the major league roster for the rest of the year. He is not a top prospect and probably doesn't project as more than a middle reliever, but I think the Cubs will find a spot for him.
Of course, with the Cubs in rebuilding mode, they should be keeping an eye on other teams with out of option players as these guys sometimes end up on the trading block. Two names I am particularly interested in are Juan Francisco and Esmil Rogers.
Francisco has bounced back and forth between AAA and the majors the last few years and, with Scott Rolen injured, the Reds gave Francisco a long look at third base last September. He held his own down the stretch, posting a .270/.299/.514 slash line and could make the team as a reserve in 2012. However, he strikes out a lot and will likely battle Todd Frazier for a reserve role. Frazier may have an edge in his positional flexibility (he can play all 4 corner spots as well as second and short), but the Reds will likely take Francisco's status into account as well when making a decision.
If Frazier beats out Francisco, the Cubs should pounce on him. With Ian Stewart and Josh Vitters currently at the top of the Cubs third base depth chart, they could certainly use another option. He wouldn't cost much and would be another low risk/high reward type move for the team.
As for Rogers, he has started 22 games for the Rockies over the last few years, with generally poor results (6.24 ERA). He has a good fastball/curveball combination but needs to learn to better spot his pitches, as he just doesn't miss enough bats to be successful. In 2010, he posted a K/9 rate of 8.3, while walking only 3.3 batters per game. However, he gave up 11.8 H/9 in 2010 and matched that with an almost identical 11.9 mark in 2011.
Rogers still has good stuff, but will be competing with as many as 8 other pitchers for the last 3 spots in the Rockies rotation. Given his track history, he will likely miss out on a spot and the Cubs could swoop in and get him for cheap.
If the Cubs truly are rebuilding, they need to take advantage of any and all opportunities that present themselves and monitoring the out of option market is just one more way of acquiring cheap talent.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Decision looming on Theo Epstein compensation?
It seems as if the never ending saga that is the Theo Epstein compensation may finally be reaching a conclusion.
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, both the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox have submitted briefs regarding the compensation issue and a decision could come this week.
There have been many hypotheses as to what the compensation will end up being, with the latest coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo goes through a virtual laundry list of possibilities, but summarizes his feelings towards the end of his article when he states:
My gut feeling is the Bud Selig will play King Solomon and split the baby, er difference, likely awarding the Red Sox a prospect in the 11-20 range.
Looking at Baseball America's Cubs Top 30 prospects, the name that immediately jumps out at me that falls in that range is Chris Carpenter. He is major league ready and while losing him may sting a little, it wouldn't be a significant loss for the Cubs.
In any case, I'm sure everyone is looking forward to finally put this issue to rest.
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, both the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox have submitted briefs regarding the compensation issue and a decision could come this week.
There have been many hypotheses as to what the compensation will end up being, with the latest coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo goes through a virtual laundry list of possibilities, but summarizes his feelings towards the end of his article when he states:
If the Sox can’t get the major league player they want, they need to get one of the Cubs’ top 10 prospects. The Sox, like most teams, need pitching depth, and a guy such as McNutt certainly would seem like fair compensation.And therein lies the whole crux of the problem. The Red Sox believe that they should get a major league player or top 10 prospect for Epstein, whereas the Cubs, citing Andy McPhail as an example (for whom the Cubs only gave up Hector Trinidad), think that a lower ranking prospect should suffice.
My gut feeling is the Bud Selig will play King Solomon and split the baby, er difference, likely awarding the Red Sox a prospect in the 11-20 range.
Looking at Baseball America's Cubs Top 30 prospects, the name that immediately jumps out at me that falls in that range is Chris Carpenter. He is major league ready and while losing him may sting a little, it wouldn't be a significant loss for the Cubs.
In any case, I'm sure everyone is looking forward to finally put this issue to rest.
Cubs miss out on Yoenis Cespedes. Step up pursuit of Jorge Soler.
The Oakland A's surprised a lot of people today by signing Cuban star Yoenis Cespedes to a 4-year, $36 million contract.
After many reports put the Miami Marlins in the lead for Cespedes, with a reported offer in the $30-35 million range, the A's swooped in to land the 26 year old outfielder.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are stepping up their pursuit of the other Cuban outfielder, Jorge Soler, and are reportedly willing to go as high at $27.5 million for him. Initial estimates had Soler's asking price in the $20 million range, so it appears that the Cubs are all-in on him.
If signed, Soler, who is only 19, would likely start in low A ball and probably would not be expected to make an impact until 2015.
As I have said before, I hope the Cubs can land Soler, as I think he will be an exciting addition to the Cubs future.
With Cespedes' signing, more teams will turn their attention to Soler. Soler has yet to be declared a free agent, so teams cannot negotiate with him yet, so perhaps the Cubs are floating the $27.5 million price out there to try to scare other teams off. However, I think the competition for Soler's services could be just as intense as that of Cespedes.
After many reports put the Miami Marlins in the lead for Cespedes, with a reported offer in the $30-35 million range, the A's swooped in to land the 26 year old outfielder.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are stepping up their pursuit of the other Cuban outfielder, Jorge Soler, and are reportedly willing to go as high at $27.5 million for him. Initial estimates had Soler's asking price in the $20 million range, so it appears that the Cubs are all-in on him.
If signed, Soler, who is only 19, would likely start in low A ball and probably would not be expected to make an impact until 2015.
As I have said before, I hope the Cubs can land Soler, as I think he will be an exciting addition to the Cubs future.
With Cespedes' signing, more teams will turn their attention to Soler. Soler has yet to be declared a free agent, so teams cannot negotiate with him yet, so perhaps the Cubs are floating the $27.5 million price out there to try to scare other teams off. However, I think the competition for Soler's services could be just as intense as that of Cespedes.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
The Future for Alfonso Soriano, Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster
Saw a couple interesting tidbits the last few days regarding the Cubs:
The first was an interview that Cubs GM Jed Hoyer did with Carmen, Yurko and Harry on ESPN Chicago. During the interview, Hoyer indicated that he believed that Alfonso Soriano will be will the Cubs come opening day, meaning its unlikely that the Cubs will be able to trade him.
Even though the Cubs are willing to eat a large chunk of his contract and with as many as eight teams expressing interest in him, the Cubs could not unload him. I find that hard to believe, unless the Cubs are trying to get too much in return for him. Sure his skills are deteriorating, but there are still a few teams in the AL looking for a DH and Soriano is at least as good as Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero and some of the other options out there.
The Cubs probably need to lower their asking price for Soriano. Otherwise, they will likely end up with a very expensive DH on their roster.
The second part of Hoyer's conversation involved Matt Garza. Hoyer basically emphasized that the Cubs would like to keep Garza around and that they see him as a part of the Cubs future. Meanwhile, in one of his weekly chats, ESPN Chicago's Bruce Levine has opined that if the Cubs can't sign Garza to an extension before the start of the season, they will likely trade him before the July 31st deadline.
It seems like a reasonable stance for the Cubs. Garza is only under team control through 2013. So, if they cannot sign him to an extension, they need to move him this year to maximize their leverage and get the best return possible. Of course, the Cubs have been asking for the moon so far, as they still have time on their side, but at some point this is going to come to a head and they will have to decide what to do. My feeling is that the Cubs will not be able to reach an agreement with Garza and he will be gone by July, but then again, I am a bit of a pessimist.
Finally, Ryan Dempster expressed interest in finishing his career with the Cubs. That's all well and good, but I don't think that's the direction the Cubs want to go. Dempster was the Cubs best and most consistent pitcher from 2008-2010, averaging 14 wins and an ERA of 3.49 during that time. However, he took a big step back last year and will soon be 35.
He is not the type of pitcher that you build around. Heck, I'm not even sure if Garza is that type of pitcher. In any case, while its nice of him to say he wants to stay, I fully expect Dempster to be gone after this season.
The first was an interview that Cubs GM Jed Hoyer did with Carmen, Yurko and Harry on ESPN Chicago. During the interview, Hoyer indicated that he believed that Alfonso Soriano will be will the Cubs come opening day, meaning its unlikely that the Cubs will be able to trade him.
Even though the Cubs are willing to eat a large chunk of his contract and with as many as eight teams expressing interest in him, the Cubs could not unload him. I find that hard to believe, unless the Cubs are trying to get too much in return for him. Sure his skills are deteriorating, but there are still a few teams in the AL looking for a DH and Soriano is at least as good as Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero and some of the other options out there.
The Cubs probably need to lower their asking price for Soriano. Otherwise, they will likely end up with a very expensive DH on their roster.
The second part of Hoyer's conversation involved Matt Garza. Hoyer basically emphasized that the Cubs would like to keep Garza around and that they see him as a part of the Cubs future. Meanwhile, in one of his weekly chats, ESPN Chicago's Bruce Levine has opined that if the Cubs can't sign Garza to an extension before the start of the season, they will likely trade him before the July 31st deadline.
It seems like a reasonable stance for the Cubs. Garza is only under team control through 2013. So, if they cannot sign him to an extension, they need to move him this year to maximize their leverage and get the best return possible. Of course, the Cubs have been asking for the moon so far, as they still have time on their side, but at some point this is going to come to a head and they will have to decide what to do. My feeling is that the Cubs will not be able to reach an agreement with Garza and he will be gone by July, but then again, I am a bit of a pessimist.
Finally, Ryan Dempster expressed interest in finishing his career with the Cubs. That's all well and good, but I don't think that's the direction the Cubs want to go. Dempster was the Cubs best and most consistent pitcher from 2008-2010, averaging 14 wins and an ERA of 3.49 during that time. However, he took a big step back last year and will soon be 35.
He is not the type of pitcher that you build around. Heck, I'm not even sure if Garza is that type of pitcher. In any case, while its nice of him to say he wants to stay, I fully expect Dempster to be gone after this season.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
The Hot Stove is burning regarding Yoenis Cespedes.
While the Miami Marlins wining and dining Yoenis Cespedes today, reports are already surfacing that the Marlins are the favorites to land him. Even Cespedes was quoted as saying he would like to play in Miami.
Other interested teams are expected to meet with Cespedes this week in Miami as well.
It not clear at this point whether the Marlins made him an offer, although one executive thought that the Marlins would try to seize the opportunity and make Cespedes an offer.
With the bidding for Cespedes expected to reach $50 to $60 million, I think the Cubs should focus their attention on landing Jorge Soler.
As I said before, Soler is younger, cheaper and many think he has more upside than Cespedes. Plus, he fits better into the Cubs long-term rebuilding plan. The last thing the Cubs need is to lock up someone like Cespedes to a 6-year, $60 million contract and watch him wash out after 3 years. He is not a normal free agent, with a known level of production. Thus, he inherently carries more risk.
With a player like Soler, we could give him a $15 million bonus up front and a 5-year, $15 million contract. Its a lot easier to cut a guy making $3 million than one making $10 million.
In any case, the Cubs will get their chance to meet with Cespedes and get a feel for what his salary expectations are. The Cubs may be looking to hit a homerun and sign both Cespedes and Soler. But if they just land Soler, I'll still be happy.
Other interested teams are expected to meet with Cespedes this week in Miami as well.
It not clear at this point whether the Marlins made him an offer, although one executive thought that the Marlins would try to seize the opportunity and make Cespedes an offer.
With the bidding for Cespedes expected to reach $50 to $60 million, I think the Cubs should focus their attention on landing Jorge Soler.
As I said before, Soler is younger, cheaper and many think he has more upside than Cespedes. Plus, he fits better into the Cubs long-term rebuilding plan. The last thing the Cubs need is to lock up someone like Cespedes to a 6-year, $60 million contract and watch him wash out after 3 years. He is not a normal free agent, with a known level of production. Thus, he inherently carries more risk.
With a player like Soler, we could give him a $15 million bonus up front and a 5-year, $15 million contract. Its a lot easier to cut a guy making $3 million than one making $10 million.
In any case, the Cubs will get their chance to meet with Cespedes and get a feel for what his salary expectations are. The Cubs may be looking to hit a homerun and sign both Cespedes and Soler. But if they just land Soler, I'll still be happy.
Monday, February 6, 2012
Cubs Claim Adrian Cardenas. DFA Blake DeWitt.
The Chicago Cubs continued their efforts to makeover their roster by claiming Adrian Cardenas from the Oakland A's and designating Blake DeWitt for assignment.
Cardenas, who ranked as high as #74 on Baseball America's 2009 Top 100 prospect list, is no longer considered a top prospect. However, at age 24, he still has some upside and is a career .303/.368/.413 hitter in the minors.
I alluded to the possibility of the Cubs claiming Cardenas a little over a week ago. He has a better overall track record in the minors that incumbent second baseman Darwin Barney, and could battle him for the starting job.
DeWitt was acquired from the Dodgers in 2010 along with Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit for Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot. He was once considered the heir apparent at second base before he was beat out by Barney in Spring Training last year.
Overall I like this move. Cardenas is a low-risk option at second and I could see him beating out Barney for the starting job. I am a little surprised that the Cubs DFA'd DeWitt, after signing him to a $1.1 million contract for 2012. DeWitt is a decent utility player, but its likely that Barney could end up in that role, which many in the Cubs organization think he is better suited for.
In any case, it should provide at least one interesting position battle to watch during Spring Training.
Cardenas, who ranked as high as #74 on Baseball America's 2009 Top 100 prospect list, is no longer considered a top prospect. However, at age 24, he still has some upside and is a career .303/.368/.413 hitter in the minors.
I alluded to the possibility of the Cubs claiming Cardenas a little over a week ago. He has a better overall track record in the minors that incumbent second baseman Darwin Barney, and could battle him for the starting job.
DeWitt was acquired from the Dodgers in 2010 along with Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit for Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot. He was once considered the heir apparent at second base before he was beat out by Barney in Spring Training last year.
Overall I like this move. Cardenas is a low-risk option at second and I could see him beating out Barney for the starting job. I am a little surprised that the Cubs DFA'd DeWitt, after signing him to a $1.1 million contract for 2012. DeWitt is a decent utility player, but its likely that Barney could end up in that role, which many in the Cubs organization think he is better suited for.
In any case, it should provide at least one interesting position battle to watch during Spring Training.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
The Cubs 2012 Composite Top 10 Prospect List (version 2.0)
With the Super Bowl now over, I thought it would be a good time to update the Cubs 2012 Composite Top 10 Prospect List. This is version 2.0, for which two new lists have been added to the mix: Minor League Ball and MLB Prospect Portal. You can check out the links to these and the other 8 sites on the Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospects Page.
Here is the updated list:
Note: Although the latest lists included Anthony Rizzo, I have excluded him from the Top 10, as all the other lists did not include him and thus his ranking would be artificially low. For what its worth, both Minor League Ball and MLB Prospect Portal ranked Rizzo as the Cubs second best prospect (behind Jackson).
Finally, I may have one more update before the start of the season as two other sites are expected to post top 10 prospect lists for the Cubs. However, they are moving kind of slow, so there is no guarantee that they will finish before the start of the season.
Here is the updated list:
| 2012 Composite Top Prospects | |||||
| Total | Hi | Low | |||
| Rank | Name | Pts | Rank | Rank | |
| 1 | Brett Jackson | 107 | 1 | 2 | |
| 2 | Javier Baez | 102 | 1 | 2 | |
| 3 | Matthew Szczur | 77 | 3 | 8 | |
| 4 | Trey McNutt | 60 | 4 | NR | |
| 4 | Dillon Maples | 58 | 4 | NR | |
| 6 | Josh Vitters | 33 | 5 | NR | |
| 6 | Welington Castillo | 32 | 3 | NR | |
| 8 | Daniel Vogelbach | 26 | 6 | NR | |
| 9 | Jeimer Candelario | 23 | 5 | NR | |
| 10 | Junior Lake | 23 | 4 | NR | |
| Others earning points: | |||||
| Chris Carpenter (16), Benjamin Wells (14), Rafael Dolis (8), Reggie Golden (6), Zeke DeVoss (5), Jae-Hoon Ha (3), Pin-Chieh Chen (3), Dae-Eun Rhee (3), Austin Kirk (2), Anthony Zych (2), Marco Hernandez (2), Ronald Torreyes (1) . | |||||
Finally, I may have one more update before the start of the season as two other sites are expected to post top 10 prospect lists for the Cubs. However, they are moving kind of slow, so there is no guarantee that they will finish before the start of the season.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Cubs sign Cuban Pitcher Gerardo Concepcion
According to Jorge Ebro and Enrique Rojas, Cuban defector Gerardo Concepcion has agreed to a $7 million deal with the Cubs.
Ben Badler of Baseball America (paysite) has the following scouting report on the 19 year old lefty:
Ben Badler of Baseball America (paysite) has the following scouting report on the 19 year old lefty:
Overall, this is a good get for the Cubs and will hopefully lead to a bigger Cuban signing in the near future.
Concepcion, 19, was the rookie of the year in Cuba in 2010-11, when he posted a 3.36 ERA in 101 2/3 innings pitching for the Industriales. While his ERA ranked 11th in the league, he averaged just 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings with 53 strikeouts and 43 walks, though he was facing much older competition in Cuba. He defected last June in the Netherlands at the World Port Tournament, though he didn't pitch there.
Concepcion is a slender 6-foot-2 with long arms, sloped shoulders and an athletic, wiry build that could have some projection remaining. He has advanced feel for pitching for his age and has shown the ability to pitch with his fastball to both sides of the plate, though he doesn't have the stuff to miss many bats. At times his fastball ranges from 88-92 mph, though some scouts have said they've seen him dip to 86-90 mph at times.
Concepcion has had success in Cuba by being able to change speeds to keep hitters off balance. Some scouts like Concepcion's mid-70s curveball, which shows good depth at times, but others say it gets loopy. He throws slightly across his body, which provides him with a little deception, but it's a concern for some scouts who think his mechanics hamper his ability to get to the front side of his delivery and show consistency with his breaking ball. Concepcion also throws a changeup (some scouts have called it a splitter), though like many young pitchers it's still a work in progress.
While some scouts view Concepcion's upside as a No. 5 starter, others see a bit more, though with his present stuff it's hard to project more than a back-end starter for now. Concepcion, who became a free agent earlier this month, would likely begin his career at one of the Class A levels.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Could Cole Hamels be on the horizon for the Cubs?
The Cubs have undergone a major overhaul this offseason, as Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have worked hard at making the team younger while also bolstering a farm system lacking depth.
However, through it all, one question keeps popping in my head: Who is going to be the Cubs ace?
Currently, Matt Garza appears to be the de facto ace for the Cubs. However, that is in name only. On a good team, he would be no better than a #2 or #3 starter.
The Cubs top pitching prospects don't project to be future aces either, as Trey McNutt and Dillon Maples both project as #2 starters, at best.
Thus, the Cubs will need to look outside their organization to find an ace. Enter Cole Hamels.
Hamels, who recently agreed to a one-year, $15 million deal with the Phillies, buying out his last year of arbitration, is likely to be a free agent after 2012. The Phillies have discussed an extension with him, but it doesn't appear that it will happen.
The Cubs will likely have some cash to spend after the 2012 season. Carlos Zambrano and his $15.5 million remaining commitment will be off the books, along with Ryan Dempster ($14 million) and Marlon Byrd ($6.5 million). Even with arbitration raises for current Cubbies (Geovany Soto, Chris Volstad, Ian Stewart, Jeff Samardzija, Blake DeWitt and first time eligible Starlin Castro), the Cubs should have at least $20-25 million to spend.
That should be enough to sign someone like Hamels. The most recent comparable pitcher to hit free agency was C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia was 27 when he reached free agency, while Hamels will be 29. Sabathia ended up signing an 8-year, $182 million contract for an average salary of $22.75 per year. I expect Hamels to get 8 years and close to $200 million.
As with most star players, the biggest competition for Hamels services will likely come from the Yankees and the Red Sox. Which means the Cubs could end up in a bidding war. But, if I were the GM for the Cubs, I would go all out in an attempt to sign Hamels. Even if the Cubs are on the 3-year rebuilding plan, they are going to need an ace when the team is ready to contend in 2014 or 2015 and Hamels appears to be the best candidate for that role.
Side Note:
I have recently joined the staff of Full Spectrum Baseball and will be writing fantasy articles for their site to be posted weekly on Saturday and Tuesday mornings. The site has some excellent writers, led by Bill Ivie (I70 Baseball) and Daniel Aubain (COSFBA) and I'm looking forward to working with them. Please check out the new site (just went live today) and let us know what you think.
However, through it all, one question keeps popping in my head: Who is going to be the Cubs ace?
Currently, Matt Garza appears to be the de facto ace for the Cubs. However, that is in name only. On a good team, he would be no better than a #2 or #3 starter.
The Cubs top pitching prospects don't project to be future aces either, as Trey McNutt and Dillon Maples both project as #2 starters, at best.
Thus, the Cubs will need to look outside their organization to find an ace. Enter Cole Hamels.
Hamels, who recently agreed to a one-year, $15 million deal with the Phillies, buying out his last year of arbitration, is likely to be a free agent after 2012. The Phillies have discussed an extension with him, but it doesn't appear that it will happen.
The Cubs will likely have some cash to spend after the 2012 season. Carlos Zambrano and his $15.5 million remaining commitment will be off the books, along with Ryan Dempster ($14 million) and Marlon Byrd ($6.5 million). Even with arbitration raises for current Cubbies (Geovany Soto, Chris Volstad, Ian Stewart, Jeff Samardzija, Blake DeWitt and first time eligible Starlin Castro), the Cubs should have at least $20-25 million to spend.
That should be enough to sign someone like Hamels. The most recent comparable pitcher to hit free agency was C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia was 27 when he reached free agency, while Hamels will be 29. Sabathia ended up signing an 8-year, $182 million contract for an average salary of $22.75 per year. I expect Hamels to get 8 years and close to $200 million.
As with most star players, the biggest competition for Hamels services will likely come from the Yankees and the Red Sox. Which means the Cubs could end up in a bidding war. But, if I were the GM for the Cubs, I would go all out in an attempt to sign Hamels. Even if the Cubs are on the 3-year rebuilding plan, they are going to need an ace when the team is ready to contend in 2014 or 2015 and Hamels appears to be the best candidate for that role.
Side Note:
I have recently joined the staff of Full Spectrum Baseball and will be writing fantasy articles for their site to be posted weekly on Saturday and Tuesday mornings. The site has some excellent writers, led by Bill Ivie (I70 Baseball) and Daniel Aubain (COSFBA) and I'm looking forward to working with them. Please check out the new site (just went live today) and let us know what you think.
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