The Tampa Rays have pitching to deal, according to Marc Tompkin of the Tampa Bay Times, and they might use that pitching to bolster their offense. In particular, Tompkin suggests that the Rays might be willing to part with either Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis for Cubs' catcher Geovany Soto.
Done. We'll send over the paperwork tomorrow.
If the Cubs could land either of those two pitchers for Soto, I'd do it in a heartbeat. As they say, you can never have too much pitching.
As for Soto, sure he won Rookie of the Year in 2008, but he has been up-and-down and injury prone ever since. He is set to "earn" $4.3 million in 2012, his second year of arbitration, which is more than either Niemann (either $2.75 or $3.2 million, depending on the arbitor) or Davis ($1.5 million) is expected to make.
Soto may benefit from a change of scenery and, as I've said before, I would like to see what Welington Castillo could do in the starting role (with Steve Clevenger as the backup).
Niemann, who turns 29 in February, is the more experienced of the two pitchers, posting a career 4.16 ERA (97 ERA+) in 506.1 IP in the majors. The 4th pick overall in the 2004 draft, Niemann has a 6.7 K/9 rate while only allowing 2.9 BB/9.
Davis was a 3rd round selection in 2004 and has a career 4.22 ERA (92 ERA+) in 388.1 IP. He has struck out only 5.9 per 9, while allowing 3.2 walks per 9, but is about 2 1/2 years younger than Niemann. He is signed through 2014 ($2.8 million for 2013 and $4.8 million for 2014), with options for 2015 ($7 million), 2016 ($8 million) and 2017 ($10 million).
While Niemann has better overall stats, he is still arbitration eligible for two more years. Davis is younger and is cost controlled through at least 2014. Still, I think either one would be a fine addition to the Cubs.
I wouldn't get your hopes up though, as it sounds like Tompkin's article was mostly speculation. But, after living through the nightmare that was the 2011 Cubs starting rotation, its nice to fantasize about having some quality pitching (and depth) in 2012.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Sunday, January 29, 2012
What is Theo Epstein worth?
With baseball Commissioner Bud Selig on hand at the White Sox convention to present Sox Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf with the 2011 Commissioner's Award for Philanthropic Excellence, the questions naturally turned to the issue of compensation for Cubs President Theo Epstein.
Selig, who was a bit perturbed that, after 3 months of extensions and negotiations, this issue still ended up in his lap, said that he hopes to resolve the issue quickly.
The question on everyone's mind is just what will the Cubs have to give up for Epstein. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe believes that the compensation will be significant, as Selig wants to deter executives from leaving organizations before their terms are up.
But, what exactly is significant?
The Red Sox reportedly were after pitcher Matt Garza or top prospect Brett Jackson. By comparison, the Marlins gave up Jhan Marinez and Osvaldo Martinez for manager Ozzie Guillen. Marinez ranked 4th and Martinez 5th on Baseball America's Marlins top 10 prospect list prior to the 2011 season and currently rank 7th and 10th on the White Sox top 10 prospect list.
If Selig were to use that as precedent, the Cubs could potentially lose someone like Matt Szczur, Trey McNutt and/or Dillon Maples to the Red Sox, a pretty steep price any way you cut it. If Selig really wanted to send a message, then he could agree with the Red Sox and award Matt Garza or Brett Jackson to the Sox.
I had hoped that the cost of hiring Epstein would be a lot less, something along the lines of Junior Lake or even a lower tier prospect. However, its looking more and more like the Cubs will lose a significant piece, which will be hard to swallow.
If Epstein can eventually bring a World Series championship to the Cubs, we will all forget about this or consider it a fair price. But if Epstein fails in his primary task, then this will become just another Cubs' blunder in a history filled with them.
Selig, who was a bit perturbed that, after 3 months of extensions and negotiations, this issue still ended up in his lap, said that he hopes to resolve the issue quickly.
The question on everyone's mind is just what will the Cubs have to give up for Epstein. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe believes that the compensation will be significant, as Selig wants to deter executives from leaving organizations before their terms are up.
But, what exactly is significant?
The Red Sox reportedly were after pitcher Matt Garza or top prospect Brett Jackson. By comparison, the Marlins gave up Jhan Marinez and Osvaldo Martinez for manager Ozzie Guillen. Marinez ranked 4th and Martinez 5th on Baseball America's Marlins top 10 prospect list prior to the 2011 season and currently rank 7th and 10th on the White Sox top 10 prospect list.
If Selig were to use that as precedent, the Cubs could potentially lose someone like Matt Szczur, Trey McNutt and/or Dillon Maples to the Red Sox, a pretty steep price any way you cut it. If Selig really wanted to send a message, then he could agree with the Red Sox and award Matt Garza or Brett Jackson to the Sox.
I had hoped that the cost of hiring Epstein would be a lot less, something along the lines of Junior Lake or even a lower tier prospect. However, its looking more and more like the Cubs will lose a significant piece, which will be hard to swallow.
If Epstein can eventually bring a World Series championship to the Cubs, we will all forget about this or consider it a fair price. But if Epstein fails in his primary task, then this will become just another Cubs' blunder in a history filled with them.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Is Brett Jackson ready for the majors?
Apparently Brett Jackson believes he's big league ready and, according to Dave van Dyck "the numbers just might bear him out."
Well, let's just see about that.
Overall, Jackson has hit .292/.393/.491 over 3 minor league seasons. He has shown a good eye, drawing 177 walks in 296 games, including 73 in each of the last two seasons. He also has shown a good combination of speed (64 stolen bases) and power (40 homeruns), plays good defense and has a good arm.
Although he has played primarily center field in the minors, he has the ability to play all 3 outfield spots. There is some question as to who is the Cubs center fielder of the future, Jackson or fast rising Matt Szczur (or maybe even Yoenis Cespedes, if they sign him). But Jackson's flexibility and power likely mean he will have a spot in the Cubs future outfield.
However, with all the upside and ability that Jackson possesses, there is still one concern: his strikeouts.
Ever since he reached high A ball in 2010, Jackson's strikeout rate has increased at each level, from 24.0% in A+ ball, to 28.9% in AA, to 34.6% in AAA. Yes, despite all those strikeout, Jackson managed to hit .297/.388/.551 in 185 at bats at AAA. However, those numbers are likely inflated by the PCL, a notorious hitters league (the league hit .285 as a whole).
The jury is still out on Jackson, at least according to Cubs' Scouting Director Jason McLeod, who said in van Dyck's article that "ultimately, his bat is going to tell who he is, whether he's going to be a superstar or complementary player."
Thus, we will likely see Jackson back in AAA to start the 2012 season and its up to him to prove to the new regime that he's ready for the bigs.
Well, let's just see about that.
Overall, Jackson has hit .292/.393/.491 over 3 minor league seasons. He has shown a good eye, drawing 177 walks in 296 games, including 73 in each of the last two seasons. He also has shown a good combination of speed (64 stolen bases) and power (40 homeruns), plays good defense and has a good arm.
Although he has played primarily center field in the minors, he has the ability to play all 3 outfield spots. There is some question as to who is the Cubs center fielder of the future, Jackson or fast rising Matt Szczur (or maybe even Yoenis Cespedes, if they sign him). But Jackson's flexibility and power likely mean he will have a spot in the Cubs future outfield.
However, with all the upside and ability that Jackson possesses, there is still one concern: his strikeouts.
Ever since he reached high A ball in 2010, Jackson's strikeout rate has increased at each level, from 24.0% in A+ ball, to 28.9% in AA, to 34.6% in AAA. Yes, despite all those strikeout, Jackson managed to hit .297/.388/.551 in 185 at bats at AAA. However, those numbers are likely inflated by the PCL, a notorious hitters league (the league hit .285 as a whole).
The jury is still out on Jackson, at least according to Cubs' Scouting Director Jason McLeod, who said in van Dyck's article that "ultimately, his bat is going to tell who he is, whether he's going to be a superstar or complementary player."
Thus, we will likely see Jackson back in AAA to start the 2012 season and its up to him to prove to the new regime that he's ready for the bigs.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Are the Cubs looking to upgrade at second base?
It appears that the Cubs, like me, are not convinced that Darwin Barney is the long term (or even short term) answer at second base.
Bruce Levine alluded to this in his Tuesday Chat on EPSN Chicago, when he stated that "Barney would be the ideal backup at 2B and SS." When asked about possible full-time replacements, Levin listed Martin Prado as a possibility, stating that "Braves have had interest in Byrd for the last 8-10 months."
If Atlanta is willing to trade Prado straight up for Byrd, then I don't know what's holding us up. I would sign off on that deal in an instant. Prado is only 27 and, despite a down year in 2011 (.260/.302/.385), is a career .293/.341/.434 hitter in the majors. He also has some pop, averaging 13 homeruns a year for the last 3 seasons.
Perhaps the Cubs are reluctant to trade Byrd, as it might force them to rush Brett Jackson to the majors. But, if they are able to sign Yoenis Cespedes, it might give them the leverage at center to trade Byrd for Prado.
Prado is under team control through 2013 and recently agreed to a one-year, $4.75 million contract with the Braves.
Other than Prado, there are not a lot of second base options available at this time. The only other option might be Adrian Cardenas, who was recently designated for assignment by the A's. Cardenas, who is only 24, is a career .303/.368/.413 hitter in 6 minor league seasons, including a .314/.374/.418 line at AAA in 2011. He has posted better overall numbers in the minors than Barney, but does not have much pop or speed.
Personally, I would go after Prado, as long as the Cubs don't have to give up any prospects in return. Cardenas could be a nice fallback option, but I think Prado would be the better fit overall.
Bruce Levine alluded to this in his Tuesday Chat on EPSN Chicago, when he stated that "Barney would be the ideal backup at 2B and SS." When asked about possible full-time replacements, Levin listed Martin Prado as a possibility, stating that "Braves have had interest in Byrd for the last 8-10 months."
If Atlanta is willing to trade Prado straight up for Byrd, then I don't know what's holding us up. I would sign off on that deal in an instant. Prado is only 27 and, despite a down year in 2011 (.260/.302/.385), is a career .293/.341/.434 hitter in the majors. He also has some pop, averaging 13 homeruns a year for the last 3 seasons.
Perhaps the Cubs are reluctant to trade Byrd, as it might force them to rush Brett Jackson to the majors. But, if they are able to sign Yoenis Cespedes, it might give them the leverage at center to trade Byrd for Prado.
Prado is under team control through 2013 and recently agreed to a one-year, $4.75 million contract with the Braves.
Other than Prado, there are not a lot of second base options available at this time. The only other option might be Adrian Cardenas, who was recently designated for assignment by the A's. Cardenas, who is only 24, is a career .303/.368/.413 hitter in 6 minor league seasons, including a .314/.374/.418 line at AAA in 2011. He has posted better overall numbers in the minors than Barney, but does not have much pop or speed.
Personally, I would go after Prado, as long as the Cubs don't have to give up any prospects in return. Cardenas could be a nice fallback option, but I think Prado would be the better fit overall.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Are Cubs and Marlins heading for a bidding war on Yoenis Cespedes?
Yoenis Cespedes is now a free agent, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America, and the Cubs appear to have some serious competition to land the young Cuban.
Joe Frisaro of The Fish Pond indicates that the Marlins are primed to make a "strong push" for the outfielder, which backs up Marlins President David Samson's comment earlier this month that the Marlins would be "aggressive right to the point of stupidity, but not quite there."
With the large Cuban community in Miami, it makes sense for them to pursue Cespedes. Not only could he be a large draw for the team, but he could blossom into a star.
Plus, with the team moving to a new stadium this year, the Marlins are looking to make some noise in the NL East and have already signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell for $191 million, while also trading for the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano.
Thus, the Cubs may be hard-pressed to outbid the Marlins for Cespedes and, if the bidding goes over $10 million a year, they may be better off going with plan B, Jorge Soler, whom some scouts prefer over Cespedes.
Soler is only 19, but has 5-tool potential. He will likely take some time to develop, but should cost a team somewhere in between Leonys Martin's 5 year $15.5 million contract and Aroldis Chapman's 6-year, $30.25 million contract.
Looking at the various scouting reports of the two Cubans, I think I would prefer Soler over Cespedes. While Cepedes has created more buzz and is more likely to have an immediate impact, Soler could very well turn out to be the better player of the two.
With the Cubs in rebuilding mode, Soler appears to be the better long-term choice and would make a nice "consolation prize" should the Cubs lose out on Cespedes.
Joe Frisaro of The Fish Pond indicates that the Marlins are primed to make a "strong push" for the outfielder, which backs up Marlins President David Samson's comment earlier this month that the Marlins would be "aggressive right to the point of stupidity, but not quite there."
With the large Cuban community in Miami, it makes sense for them to pursue Cespedes. Not only could he be a large draw for the team, but he could blossom into a star.
Plus, with the team moving to a new stadium this year, the Marlins are looking to make some noise in the NL East and have already signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell for $191 million, while also trading for the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano.
Thus, the Cubs may be hard-pressed to outbid the Marlins for Cespedes and, if the bidding goes over $10 million a year, they may be better off going with plan B, Jorge Soler, whom some scouts prefer over Cespedes.
Soler is only 19, but has 5-tool potential. He will likely take some time to develop, but should cost a team somewhere in between Leonys Martin's 5 year $15.5 million contract and Aroldis Chapman's 6-year, $30.25 million contract.
Looking at the various scouting reports of the two Cubans, I think I would prefer Soler over Cespedes. While Cepedes has created more buzz and is more likely to have an immediate impact, Soler could very well turn out to be the better player of the two.
With the Cubs in rebuilding mode, Soler appears to be the better long-term choice and would make a nice "consolation prize" should the Cubs lose out on Cespedes.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Yoenis Cespedes gains residency in Dominican Republic
According to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, Yoenis Cespedes has gained residency in the Dominican Republic, which means it could be only a matter of days until he is declared a free agent.
Ken Rosenthal reported yesterday that the Cubs, Marlins and Tigers were the teams "most active" on Cespedes, with Cespedes himself saying last week that the Cubs are his most serious suitor. The Tigers recent signing of Prince Fielder to a 9-year, $214 million deal, may take them out of the running, leaving the Cubs and Marlins to duke it out.
It is likely that Cespedes will sign a deal in excess of the 6 year, $30.25 million contract signed by Aroldis Chapman.
But, if the Cubs were to sign Cespedes, what kind of production can we expect?
Well, Clay Davenport has already done the legwork on that, likening Cespedes to the Orioles' Adam Jones. He projects to play good defense in center field, hit about 20-25 homers and hit in the .260-.270 range. Maybe not All Star caliber, but certainly above average and worth the $7-8 million per year it will likely cost to sign him.
If the Cubs do sign Cespedes, it makes it that much more likely that they'll trade Alfonso Soriano, with Marlon Byrd moving to left field. It would also mean that the Cubs will keep top prospect Brett Jackson in the minors at least until July, when they can ship off Byrd for some prospects.
The Cubs appear to be all over the Cuban market, with the team also showing strong interest in lefty Gerardo Concepcion and outfielder Jorge Soler (who may be plan B if they don't land Cespedes).
In any case, the Cubs have some extra money lying around and appear to be ready to spend it.
Ken Rosenthal reported yesterday that the Cubs, Marlins and Tigers were the teams "most active" on Cespedes, with Cespedes himself saying last week that the Cubs are his most serious suitor. The Tigers recent signing of Prince Fielder to a 9-year, $214 million deal, may take them out of the running, leaving the Cubs and Marlins to duke it out.
It is likely that Cespedes will sign a deal in excess of the 6 year, $30.25 million contract signed by Aroldis Chapman.
But, if the Cubs were to sign Cespedes, what kind of production can we expect?
Well, Clay Davenport has already done the legwork on that, likening Cespedes to the Orioles' Adam Jones. He projects to play good defense in center field, hit about 20-25 homers and hit in the .260-.270 range. Maybe not All Star caliber, but certainly above average and worth the $7-8 million per year it will likely cost to sign him.
If the Cubs do sign Cespedes, it makes it that much more likely that they'll trade Alfonso Soriano, with Marlon Byrd moving to left field. It would also mean that the Cubs will keep top prospect Brett Jackson in the minors at least until July, when they can ship off Byrd for some prospects.
The Cubs appear to be all over the Cuban market, with the team also showing strong interest in lefty Gerardo Concepcion and outfielder Jorge Soler (who may be plan B if they don't land Cespedes).
In any case, the Cubs have some extra money lying around and appear to be ready to spend it.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Cubs Sign Jason Jaramillo! (and other more important stuff)
OK, after all the hoopla over the Cubs moves in late December and early January, things have slowed down quite a bit lately. But that's not to say there aren't some interesting things going on, you just have to dig a little harder to find it.
While the signing of Jason Jaramillo doesn't amount to much (he's likely just organizational depth), it appears that the Cubs and Red Sox have decided to let Commissioner Bud Selig decide what constitutes the "valuable compensation" that the Red Sox were promised in exchange for Theo Epstein.
Basically there is no precedent for this. There have been managers "traded" to other teams, Ozzie Guillen is the most recent example, but its rare for a GM to be traded. The Cubs are thinking that a low ranking prospect (somewhere in the 20-30 range) should suffice, whereas the Red Sox have apparently been trying to get Brett Jackson or Matt Garza. Chances are that Selig will put the compensation somewhere in the middle (perhaps a guy like Junior Lake).
Another interesting tidbit is that Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes is saying that the Cubs "have been most interested in me" (Spanish link). Cespedes, best known for his workout video (Jane Fonda has nothing on him), is an outfielder with tremendous upside and could be a great addition to the Cubs. The only problem is how his skills will translate in the states.
But Cespedes is not the only Cuban defector the Cubs are after, as they have also been linked to 18-year-old lefty Gerardo Concepcion. Concepcion was recently declared a free agent and is free to negotiate with any team.
Finally, the Cubs signed nearly all of their arbitration eligible players: Geovany Soto ($4.3 million), Jeff Baker ($1.375 million), Blake DeWitt ($1.1 million), Ian Stewart ($2.237 million), Chris Volstad ($2.655 million) and Randy Wells ($2.705 million), leaving only Matt Garza unsigned. Based on my rough calculations, and estimating a $9 million salary for Garza, that puts the Cubs at around $105 million in payroll (give or take a few million), considerably less than the 2011 opening day payroll of $134 million.
The Cubs are probably using that extra cash to pursue Cespedes and Concepcion. Cespedes is expected to sign for more than Aroldis Chapman's 6 year, $30 million contract. But, at 27 years old, Cespedes is younger that most American free agents are when they first hit the market and thus makes more sense for the rebuilding Cubs. Cespedes is expected to become a free agent soon and is currently playing in the Dominican Winter League.
In any case, the Cubs still have some unfinished business left before pitchers and catchers report in a month.
While the signing of Jason Jaramillo doesn't amount to much (he's likely just organizational depth), it appears that the Cubs and Red Sox have decided to let Commissioner Bud Selig decide what constitutes the "valuable compensation" that the Red Sox were promised in exchange for Theo Epstein.
Basically there is no precedent for this. There have been managers "traded" to other teams, Ozzie Guillen is the most recent example, but its rare for a GM to be traded. The Cubs are thinking that a low ranking prospect (somewhere in the 20-30 range) should suffice, whereas the Red Sox have apparently been trying to get Brett Jackson or Matt Garza. Chances are that Selig will put the compensation somewhere in the middle (perhaps a guy like Junior Lake).
Another interesting tidbit is that Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes is saying that the Cubs "have been most interested in me" (Spanish link). Cespedes, best known for his workout video (Jane Fonda has nothing on him), is an outfielder with tremendous upside and could be a great addition to the Cubs. The only problem is how his skills will translate in the states.
But Cespedes is not the only Cuban defector the Cubs are after, as they have also been linked to 18-year-old lefty Gerardo Concepcion. Concepcion was recently declared a free agent and is free to negotiate with any team.
Finally, the Cubs signed nearly all of their arbitration eligible players: Geovany Soto ($4.3 million), Jeff Baker ($1.375 million), Blake DeWitt ($1.1 million), Ian Stewart ($2.237 million), Chris Volstad ($2.655 million) and Randy Wells ($2.705 million), leaving only Matt Garza unsigned. Based on my rough calculations, and estimating a $9 million salary for Garza, that puts the Cubs at around $105 million in payroll (give or take a few million), considerably less than the 2011 opening day payroll of $134 million.
The Cubs are probably using that extra cash to pursue Cespedes and Concepcion. Cespedes is expected to sign for more than Aroldis Chapman's 6 year, $30 million contract. But, at 27 years old, Cespedes is younger that most American free agents are when they first hit the market and thus makes more sense for the rebuilding Cubs. Cespedes is expected to become a free agent soon and is currently playing in the Dominican Winter League.
In any case, the Cubs still have some unfinished business left before pitchers and catchers report in a month.
Sunday, January 15, 2012
What are reasonable expectations for the 2012 Cubs?
With the recent signing of Kerry Wood, it appears that most of the Cubs rebuilding is complete, at least for the 2012 season. Matt Garza could still be moved, however with the Yankees recently acquisition of Michael Pineda, there is one less suitor on that front.
Thus, with most of the winter moves completed, what can we expect from this team in 2012?
Well, if you ask the players, they remain confident and believe the Cubs can contend.
Per Ian Stewart, "There's been a lot of teams that have started the season with question marks that have gone on to be good teams, so there's no reason we can't do that here."
Even Theo Epstein is not totally giving up on the 2012 season and thinks "we might surprise some people".
However, after last year when Jim Hendry was quoted as saying “we fully expect to be in contention in the National League Central", prior to the Cubs finishing 5th in the Central, I remain skeptical.
Thus, I thought I would take a look at the Cubs current roster and try to get a feel for what to expect for the 2012 season, i.e. how many wins can we realistically expect from this current group?
To do this, I decided to apply Bill James' Pythagorean expectation formula, which uses a team's runs scored and runs allowed to predict a team's total wins. For example, using the Cubs 2011 runs scored of 654 and runs allowed of 756, the formula predicts 69 wins, or 2 less than the 71 wins the Cubs ended up with, which is well within a reasonable margin of error.
So, to apply this to the 2012 season, I first had to find projected runs scored and runs allowed for the 2012 Cubs. Thus, I turned to one of my favorite sites, BaseballHQ.com, which puts together their first projections in December and updates them regularly for each significant transaction.
A couple tweaks were needed as BBHQ only projects ER for pitchers and their total IP were a little high. Thus, I calculated runs allowed based on the Cubs 2011 ratio of ER to Runs (91%). In addition, I removed some of the fringe pitchers to get the 2012 IP down to around 1450 (the Cubs had 1434 IP in 2011).
With those tweaks, I came up with projections of 665 runs scored and 736 runs allowed. Applying the Pythagorean expectation formula gives 73 wins (72.8 to be exact) or about the same as 2011.
For a team going through a major rebuilding, I think most fans would be OK with 73 wins in 2012, with the expectation that that total would increase going forward. Its OK to try to be optimistic, especially when its the Cubs Convention and you're trying to drive up fan support and ticket sales, but I don't think we should realistically expect to contend in 2012 and, if they do surprise some people, it would probably mean they finish above .500.
Thus, with most of the winter moves completed, what can we expect from this team in 2012?
Well, if you ask the players, they remain confident and believe the Cubs can contend.
Per Ian Stewart, "There's been a lot of teams that have started the season with question marks that have gone on to be good teams, so there's no reason we can't do that here."
Even Theo Epstein is not totally giving up on the 2012 season and thinks "we might surprise some people".
However, after last year when Jim Hendry was quoted as saying “we fully expect to be in contention in the National League Central", prior to the Cubs finishing 5th in the Central, I remain skeptical.
Thus, I thought I would take a look at the Cubs current roster and try to get a feel for what to expect for the 2012 season, i.e. how many wins can we realistically expect from this current group?
To do this, I decided to apply Bill James' Pythagorean expectation formula, which uses a team's runs scored and runs allowed to predict a team's total wins. For example, using the Cubs 2011 runs scored of 654 and runs allowed of 756, the formula predicts 69 wins, or 2 less than the 71 wins the Cubs ended up with, which is well within a reasonable margin of error.
So, to apply this to the 2012 season, I first had to find projected runs scored and runs allowed for the 2012 Cubs. Thus, I turned to one of my favorite sites, BaseballHQ.com, which puts together their first projections in December and updates them regularly for each significant transaction.
A couple tweaks were needed as BBHQ only projects ER for pitchers and their total IP were a little high. Thus, I calculated runs allowed based on the Cubs 2011 ratio of ER to Runs (91%). In addition, I removed some of the fringe pitchers to get the 2012 IP down to around 1450 (the Cubs had 1434 IP in 2011).
With those tweaks, I came up with projections of 665 runs scored and 736 runs allowed. Applying the Pythagorean expectation formula gives 73 wins (72.8 to be exact) or about the same as 2011.
For a team going through a major rebuilding, I think most fans would be OK with 73 wins in 2012, with the expectation that that total would increase going forward. Its OK to try to be optimistic, especially when its the Cubs Convention and you're trying to drive up fan support and ticket sales, but I don't think we should realistically expect to contend in 2012 and, if they do surprise some people, it would probably mean they finish above .500.
Monday, January 9, 2012
Could the signing of Paul Maholm mean a Matt Garza trade is more likely?
First of all, let me preface this by saying that I am in no way saying that Paul Maholm is as good a pitcher as Matt Garza.
However, with that said, it appears that the Cubs have signed Paul Maholm, as he indicates in his twitter feed.
At the same time, it appears that talks involving trading Matt Garza to the Detroit Tigers have intensified recently.
David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com indicates that talks between the Cubs and Tigers are "down the road" and by that he means they have progressed "far beyond the initial stages."
Maybe its just a coincidence, as GM Jed Hoyer said just last week that the Cubs wanted to add more pitching depth. However, the Cubs now have 6 starters (Garza, Randy Wells, Travis Wood, Chris Volstad and Ryan Dempster) for 5 spots, which gives them the leverage to trade one of them. Both Garza and Wells were rumored to be trade candidates earlier this offseason, but Garza appears to be the only one of them in demand at this time.
If the Cubs do decide to keep Garza, it wouldn't be a bad thing. Travis Wood still has a minor league option and can be sent to AAA to start the season, providing the Cubs with some quality pitching depth, which was sorely lacking last year.
The Cubs now have more leverage to trade Garza, but won't hesitate to keep him, if they cannot get what they want in return.
Its a good position to be in.
However, with that said, it appears that the Cubs have signed Paul Maholm, as he indicates in his twitter feed.
At the same time, it appears that talks involving trading Matt Garza to the Detroit Tigers have intensified recently.
David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com indicates that talks between the Cubs and Tigers are "down the road" and by that he means they have progressed "far beyond the initial stages."
Maybe its just a coincidence, as GM Jed Hoyer said just last week that the Cubs wanted to add more pitching depth. However, the Cubs now have 6 starters (Garza, Randy Wells, Travis Wood, Chris Volstad and Ryan Dempster) for 5 spots, which gives them the leverage to trade one of them. Both Garza and Wells were rumored to be trade candidates earlier this offseason, but Garza appears to be the only one of them in demand at this time.
If the Cubs do decide to keep Garza, it wouldn't be a bad thing. Travis Wood still has a minor league option and can be sent to AAA to start the season, providing the Cubs with some quality pitching depth, which was sorely lacking last year.
The Cubs now have more leverage to trade Garza, but won't hesitate to keep him, if they cannot get what they want in return.
Its a good position to be in.
Should the Cubs be pursuing Kerry Wood?
At this point of the offseason, its pretty clear that the Cubs are in full rebuilding mode. The Cubs have spent the last couple of months trying to rid themselves of bloated contracts (Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano) or trying to trade their valuable commodities (Sean Marshall, Matt Garza) for prospects.
So, with the direction the Cubs are headed, its hard to understand the Cubs wanting to sign Kerry Wood. At this point, Wood is considered a luxury, not a necessity. Its not like he's going to magically propel the Cubs into contention.
After giving the Cubs a hometown discount last year and signing for a below market rate, Wood is looking to get market value this offseason. Based on free agent signings so far, Wood would probably require around $3-5 million annually for 1-2 years.
After trading setup man Sean Marshall, who was in line to earn $3.1 million in 2012, I have a hard time seeing the Cubs signing Wood for around the same amount. Perhaps Theo Epstein is thinking that they could sign Wood to a two year deal and then trade him next offseason for prospects. However, I tend to think that Wood is going to want a no-trade clause in his contract, should he sign with the Cubs.
Signing Wood would give the Cubs an experienced man in the pen who could perhaps help mentor the younger pitchers and bridge the gap. But it would also take away an opportunity for someone like Chris Carpenter or Rafael Dolis to get experience at the major league level.
I would rather see the Cubs use the money elsewhere, as, to me at least, spending $3-4 million on a reliever for a non-contending team just doesn't make sense.
So, with the direction the Cubs are headed, its hard to understand the Cubs wanting to sign Kerry Wood. At this point, Wood is considered a luxury, not a necessity. Its not like he's going to magically propel the Cubs into contention.
After giving the Cubs a hometown discount last year and signing for a below market rate, Wood is looking to get market value this offseason. Based on free agent signings so far, Wood would probably require around $3-5 million annually for 1-2 years.
After trading setup man Sean Marshall, who was in line to earn $3.1 million in 2012, I have a hard time seeing the Cubs signing Wood for around the same amount. Perhaps Theo Epstein is thinking that they could sign Wood to a two year deal and then trade him next offseason for prospects. However, I tend to think that Wood is going to want a no-trade clause in his contract, should he sign with the Cubs.
Signing Wood would give the Cubs an experienced man in the pen who could perhaps help mentor the younger pitchers and bridge the gap. But it would also take away an opportunity for someone like Chris Carpenter or Rafael Dolis to get experience at the major league level.
I would rather see the Cubs use the money elsewhere, as, to me at least, spending $3-4 million on a reliever for a non-contending team just doesn't make sense.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
Can the Cubs really find someone to take Alfonso Soriano off their hands?
Last week the Cubs did the (seemingly) impossible and trade headcase Carlos Zambrano while actually getting a decent player in return (Chris Volstad). Sure, the Cubs had to pay $15 million of the $18 million that Zambrano is owed in 2012, but, as Theo Epstein put it:
This is what Epstein had to say about Soriano:
As with Zambrano, the Cubs are willing to pick up most of the $54 million remaining on Soriano's contract and it was reported recently that the Orioles talked to the Cubs about him, but that talks were probably not very serious. In fact, about a month ago, one Orioles club official said there's no chance that the Orioles wanted him.
Nonetheless, there is some interest in Soriano and, if the Cubs move him, it will likely be to an AL team (where he could DH) and they are unlikely to get much in return. For example, if the Cubs were able to work out a trade with the Orioles, they might be able to get a lower tier prospect from them, such as Tyler Henson or Ronnie Welty.
The difference between Soriano and Zambrano is that the Big Z is still at least a serviceable pitcher with only one year remaining on his contract, whereas Soriano still has 3 years remaining. Thus, even if the Cubs are willing to pick up all but $3 million per year of Soriano's contract, that still means the acquiring team will be paying that much each year for at best a DH and at worst a pinch hitter.
Bottom line, don't be surprised to see the Cubs move Soriano before Spring Training starts. Just don't expect much in return.
“The calculus for us was would we rather spend that $18 million on one year of Carlos and try to make it work with him here. Best case scenario is that if it did work, he’d be leaving as a free agent at the end of the year. Or, if we had to spend that money anyways as a sunk cost, would we rather spend it on a 25-year-old who we can put in our rotation and control for three seasons? That made a lot more sense.”This gives me hope that the Cubs could pull off something similar with Alfonso Soriano, as the same scenario pertains to him as well. If the Cubs consider the $54 million remaining on his contract a sunk cost, it comes down to whether it make more sense to eat a large chunk of that contract in hopes of getting a young player with some upside in return.
This is what Epstein had to say about Soriano:
"He also hit 26 home runs and drove in 88 runs last year. He's a valuable offensive player, so it's our responsibility as an organization to work with him and to get the best out of him. At some point in the future, if there's a transaction that makes sense with any of our players that puts the Cubs in a better position moving forward, we are going to pursue it. But in respect to Alfonso, he has power and is an offensive contributor. We can work with him to get the best out of him and see where that takes us."In other words, if the right deal comes along, he's gone, otherwise, we'll stick with him and try to make the best of a bad situation.
As with Zambrano, the Cubs are willing to pick up most of the $54 million remaining on Soriano's contract and it was reported recently that the Orioles talked to the Cubs about him, but that talks were probably not very serious. In fact, about a month ago, one Orioles club official said there's no chance that the Orioles wanted him.
Nonetheless, there is some interest in Soriano and, if the Cubs move him, it will likely be to an AL team (where he could DH) and they are unlikely to get much in return. For example, if the Cubs were able to work out a trade with the Orioles, they might be able to get a lower tier prospect from them, such as Tyler Henson or Ronnie Welty.
The difference between Soriano and Zambrano is that the Big Z is still at least a serviceable pitcher with only one year remaining on his contract, whereas Soriano still has 3 years remaining. Thus, even if the Cubs are willing to pick up all but $3 million per year of Soriano's contract, that still means the acquiring team will be paying that much each year for at best a DH and at worst a pinch hitter.
Bottom line, don't be surprised to see the Cubs move Soriano before Spring Training starts. Just don't expect much in return.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Cubs get their (first base) man.
Ever since the Padres acquired Yonder Alonso from the Reds on December 17, there has been rumors that the Cubs were after the Padres other first base prospect Anthony Rizzo.
Well today, the Cubs finally landed him and righthander Zach Cates in exchange for Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na.
Rizzo was ranked as the Padres top prospect by Baseball America after hitting .331/.404/.652 in 356 Ab's at AAA Tuscon this year. However, he struggled in his first taste of the majors, hitting only .141/.281/.242 in 128 AB's. The move to Wrigley should help his power numbers (he hit only 1 HR with the Padres, after hitting 26 at Tuscon).
Jed Hoyer was quoted as saying that Rizzo will start the season in AAA while Bryan LaHair will start at first for the Cubs. However, it should only be temporary, as Rizzo is definitely the Cubs future at first. If LaHair struggles, look for Rizzo to get a mid-season callup.
Hoyer is quite familiar with Rizzo, as Hoyer was the Padres GM when they traded Adrian Gonzalez for Rizzo (and others). So, its obvious that Hoyer likes Rizzo.
Cates was a 3rd round pick in 2010 who probably projects best as a reliever. Na has decent speed, but projects to be a 4th outfielder.
Overall, I like the move. Cashner has not proven himself to be durable enough to be a starter and the Padres apparently agree, saying that Cashner will setup closer Huston Street in 2012. Rizzo, on the other hand, is projected to be a .270 hitter capable of hitting 30 homers a season, according to Baseball America. He has a career .296/.366/.514 line in 5 minor league seasons.
With all the positions apparently set, the Cubs will now shift their attention to their pitching, as Hoyer says they want to gather "as many quality arms as we can".
Well today, the Cubs finally landed him and righthander Zach Cates in exchange for Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na.
Rizzo was ranked as the Padres top prospect by Baseball America after hitting .331/.404/.652 in 356 Ab's at AAA Tuscon this year. However, he struggled in his first taste of the majors, hitting only .141/.281/.242 in 128 AB's. The move to Wrigley should help his power numbers (he hit only 1 HR with the Padres, after hitting 26 at Tuscon).
Jed Hoyer was quoted as saying that Rizzo will start the season in AAA while Bryan LaHair will start at first for the Cubs. However, it should only be temporary, as Rizzo is definitely the Cubs future at first. If LaHair struggles, look for Rizzo to get a mid-season callup.
Hoyer is quite familiar with Rizzo, as Hoyer was the Padres GM when they traded Adrian Gonzalez for Rizzo (and others). So, its obvious that Hoyer likes Rizzo.
Cates was a 3rd round pick in 2010 who probably projects best as a reliever. Na has decent speed, but projects to be a 4th outfielder.
Overall, I like the move. Cashner has not proven himself to be durable enough to be a starter and the Padres apparently agree, saying that Cashner will setup closer Huston Street in 2012. Rizzo, on the other hand, is projected to be a .270 hitter capable of hitting 30 homers a season, according to Baseball America. He has a career .296/.366/.514 line in 5 minor league seasons.
With all the positions apparently set, the Cubs will now shift their attention to their pitching, as Hoyer says they want to gather "as many quality arms as we can".
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Projecting the Cubs future starting rotations and closers
UPDATED FOR THE ANTHONY RIZZO FOR ANDREW CASHNER TRADE
With the acquisition of Chris Vostad for Carlos Zambrano and it looking less likely that the Cubs will trade Matt Garza, due to their steep price, the Cubs 2012 starting rotation is coming into focus. Beyond that though, the picture becomes less clear.
Let's take a look at the possible Cubs starting rotations and closers over the next several years.
Starting Rotation
Currently, the Cubs have Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Travis Wood and Chris Volstad.
They were rumors at the end of the season that they could might consider moving Jeff Samardzija back to the rotation, however, after acquiring Wood and Volstad, its less likely that will happen. Casey Coleman also saw some time in the rotation in 2011, but will likely be relegated to the pen or AAA in 2012. The Cubs are rumored to have Randy Wells on the block, which might open up a spot for one of these two, but things have been pretty quiet on that front lately.
The Cubs top pitching prospect, Trey McNutt, who ranked 4th on the Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect list, struggled at AA Tennessee in 2011, with a 4.55 ERA and only 65 K's in 95 IP. He will likely need to prove he can get advanced hitters out before him moves up to AAA Iowa and could be at least 1-2 years away from the majors.
2011 Dillon Maples, who tied McNutt for 4th place on the Composite Top 10 list, was drafted out of high school and is likely at least 3-4 years away. Beyond McNutt and Maples, the Cubs have a few intriguing prospects in Benjamin Wells, Austin Kirk and Dae-Eun Rhee. Each has some upside, but still have a lot to prove in the minors.
Closer
Carlos Marmol is signed through 2013, but has been the subject of trade rumors as well. However, the Cubs may wait until after the 2012 season to trade him in hopes that he boosts his trade value with a strong season, following a sub-par 2011.
After Marmol, Samardzija could be an option at closer and Andrew Cashner has been mentioned as a possible closer candidate in the past. Former top 10 prospect Chris Carpenter, who was converted to relief in 2011, could also be a possibility. Finally, Rafael Dolis, who pitched mostly in relief in AA in 2011, converting 17 saves, is another possibility. Dolis' fastball was rated as the best in the Cubs system by Baseball America and I think he will eventually replace Marmol as closer.
Thus, here are my predictions for the Cubs rotation and closer through 2015:
2012
2013
2014
2015
The Cubs were able to acquire some pitching depth through trades and the recent draft, so I feel a little better about their pitching going forward. Still, its going to take some time for them to develop.
With the acquisition of Chris Vostad for Carlos Zambrano and it looking less likely that the Cubs will trade Matt Garza, due to their steep price, the Cubs 2012 starting rotation is coming into focus. Beyond that though, the picture becomes less clear.
Let's take a look at the possible Cubs starting rotations and closers over the next several years.
Starting Rotation
Currently, the Cubs have Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Travis Wood and Chris Volstad.
They were rumors at the end of the season that they could might consider moving Jeff Samardzija back to the rotation, however, after acquiring Wood and Volstad, its less likely that will happen. Casey Coleman also saw some time in the rotation in 2011, but will likely be relegated to the pen or AAA in 2012. The Cubs are rumored to have Randy Wells on the block, which might open up a spot for one of these two, but things have been pretty quiet on that front lately.
The Cubs top pitching prospect, Trey McNutt, who ranked 4th on the Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect list, struggled at AA Tennessee in 2011, with a 4.55 ERA and only 65 K's in 95 IP. He will likely need to prove he can get advanced hitters out before him moves up to AAA Iowa and could be at least 1-2 years away from the majors.
2011 Dillon Maples, who tied McNutt for 4th place on the Composite Top 10 list, was drafted out of high school and is likely at least 3-4 years away. Beyond McNutt and Maples, the Cubs have a few intriguing prospects in Benjamin Wells, Austin Kirk and Dae-Eun Rhee. Each has some upside, but still have a lot to prove in the minors.
Closer
Carlos Marmol is signed through 2013, but has been the subject of trade rumors as well. However, the Cubs may wait until after the 2012 season to trade him in hopes that he boosts his trade value with a strong season, following a sub-par 2011.
After Marmol, Samardzija could be an option at closer and Andrew Cashner has been mentioned as a possible closer candidate in the past. Former top 10 prospect Chris Carpenter, who was converted to relief in 2011, could also be a possibility. Finally, Rafael Dolis, who pitched mostly in relief in AA in 2011, converting 17 saves, is another possibility. Dolis' fastball was rated as the best in the Cubs system by Baseball America and I think he will eventually replace Marmol as closer.
Thus, here are my predictions for the Cubs rotation and closer through 2015:
2012
- Matt Garza
- Ryan Dempster
- Randy Wells
- Chris Volstad
- Travis Wood
2013
- Matt Garza
- Randy Wells
- Chris Volstad
- Travis Wood
- Casey Coleman
2014
- Trey McNutt
- Randy Wells
- Chris Volstad
- Travis Wood
- Casey Coleman
2015
- Trey McNutt
- Travis Wood
- Dae-Eun Rhee
- Dillon Maples
- Casey Coleman
The Cubs were able to acquire some pitching depth through trades and the recent draft, so I feel a little better about their pitching going forward. Still, its going to take some time for them to develop.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Cubs finally dump Carlos Zambrano
Just when you thought the Cubs would never find a team to take their resident headcase off their hands, along come the Miami Marlins to save the day.
Bruce Levine reports that the Cubs agreed to send Carlos Zambrano and $15.5 million to the Marlins for pitcher Chris Volstad.
Cubs fans have long grown tired of Zambrano's antics and apparently management has as well. Despite Theo Epstein saying that Zambrano has a chance to earn his way back to being a Cub, it appears now that was not the case.
Volstad owns a career 4.59 ERA over 3 1/2 seasons, but seemed to improve during the second half of 2011, posting a 4.04 ERA in 62.1 IP. A sinkerballer, Volstad has a career 1.56 GO/AO ratio. He is in his first year of arbitration and under team control through 2014.
Overall I like this trade for the Cubs. It reminds me a little of the Milton Bradley trade, except that, instead of taking a bad contract in return, the Cubs just had to throw a lot of cash the Marlins way and were able to get a decent pitcher in return.
Already Marlin fans are claiming victory, just like Mariner fans did after the Bradley trade. But we all know how that worked out in the end.
So, good riddance Zambrano. You and Ozzie Guillen are made for each other.
Bruce Levine reports that the Cubs agreed to send Carlos Zambrano and $15.5 million to the Marlins for pitcher Chris Volstad.
Cubs fans have long grown tired of Zambrano's antics and apparently management has as well. Despite Theo Epstein saying that Zambrano has a chance to earn his way back to being a Cub, it appears now that was not the case.
Volstad owns a career 4.59 ERA over 3 1/2 seasons, but seemed to improve during the second half of 2011, posting a 4.04 ERA in 62.1 IP. A sinkerballer, Volstad has a career 1.56 GO/AO ratio. He is in his first year of arbitration and under team control through 2014.
Overall I like this trade for the Cubs. It reminds me a little of the Milton Bradley trade, except that, instead of taking a bad contract in return, the Cubs just had to throw a lot of cash the Marlins way and were able to get a decent pitcher in return.
Already Marlin fans are claiming victory, just like Mariner fans did after the Bradley trade. But we all know how that worked out in the end.
So, good riddance Zambrano. You and Ozzie Guillen are made for each other.
Projecting the Cubs future lineups.
NOTE: UPDATED FOR THE RIZZO FOR CASHNER TRADE
Around this time of year, when there is a lull in the Cubs Hot Stove season, I often find myself thinking of the Cubs future and what their team might look like. Part of my inspiration is a feature that Baseball America puts out as part of each team's Top 10 prospect page, where they project a team's future lineup 4 years out. Thus, this year, they project the Cubs' 2015 lineup.
Its a fun little exercise and can be a valuable tool for fantasy leaguers (especially those in Dynasty Leagues), who want to get a jump on the next big prospect (or even unearth a potential sleeper).
So, with a nod to Baseball America, here are my thoughts on the Cubs future lineups, going position by position:
Catcher
Geovany Soto is under team control for two more years and has been up and down each year since his ROY campaign in 2008. Welington Castillo is the Cubs top catching prospect, ranking #6 on the Cubs 2012 Composite Top 10 Prospect List, and should at least serve as Soto's backup in 2012.
Despite his struggles in 2011, Soto is a better hitter than Castillo, although Castillo has a better arm. If the Cubs find that Soto is becoming too expensive, they could let Soto walk after the 2013 season and make Castillo the starter beginning in 2014.
First Base
The Cubs do not appear to be interested in Prince Fielder (at least not at his current asking price). But, fear not, for they may have drafted their own version of Prince, taking Dan Vogelbach in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft.
At 6'0" and 240, Vogelbach is a large specimen with prodigious power, breaking Bryce Harper's record for the longest homerun at the annual Power Showcase. But, like Prince, he has to watch his weight. He actually dropped 40 pounds between 2010 and 2011, and he will need to maintain that if he wants to play in the NL.
As a high schooler, it could take 3-4 years for Vogelbach to develop. So, unless the Cubs go out and trade for Anthony Rizzo or Kendrys Morales, Bryan LaHair may be the Cubs starting first baseman for a while. If that doesn't pan out, the Cubs could call up Josh Vitters and move Ian Stewart to first. However, Vogelbach is likely the future for the Cubs.
Second Base
Darwin Barney showed enough in 2011 to be penciled in as the Cubs starter for 2012. However, after hitting .306/.334/.374 in the first half, he tailed off considerably in the second half with a .238/.286/.328 line. With a career OPS of .711 in the minors and .656 in 608 AB's in the majors, I'm not convinced that Barney is the long-term answer at second for the Cubs.
However, after losing Ryan Flaherty in the Rule 5 draft and trading away D.J. LaMahieu and Hak-Ju Lee the last two years, the Cubs do not have a lot of quality middle infield prospects in their system, at least at the upper levels. Junior Lake could potentially play second for the Cubs, but his minor league track record is actually worse than Barney's.
Baseball America lists 2011 draftee Zeke DeVoss as the Cubs second baseman in 2015, however he might not make his major league debut until 2014. Until then, we'll likely see Barney man the keystone position.
Shortstop
OK, this one is a no-brainer. Starlin Castro is the present and future shortstop for the Cubs. No questions asked.
Third Base
The Cubs traded their disappointing outfielder, Tyler Colvin, for the Rockies disappointing third baseman, Ian Stewart, this offseason and Stewart should open the season as the starter. In his second year of arbitration, the Cubs control Stewart through the 2013 season, by which time they hope that Josh Vitters will finally be ready to take over.
Vitters showed some improvement at the plate this year at AA Tennessee, hitting .283/.322/.448 and the Cubs hope he can build upon that in 2012. Vitters could get a September callup in 2012 and push Stewart for the starting job in 2013.
However, the future at third appears to be the Cubs top pick in the 2011 draft, Javier Baez. Although he was drafted as a shortstop, most scouts see him eventually moving to third.
Outfield
The Cubs have been trying to trade left fielder Alfonso Soriano for the last two years. However, despite their willingness to eat a large part of the $54 million remaining on his contract, there has not been a lot of interest. At age 35 and well into his decline years, the Cubs could end up just releasing Soriano before his contract expires after the 2014 season, but its just as likely that they keep trotting him out there.
Marlon Byrd is the incumbent in center, but is a free agent after the 2012 season. By then, Brett Jackson should be ready to take over in center, but that may just be temporary as the organization believes that Matt Szczur is their center fielder of the future.
The signing of David DeJesus gives the Cubs some flexibility should they finally part ways with Soriano, but for 2012 DeJesus is slated to start in right and lead off for the Cubs. DeJesus is signed through 2013, by which time the Cubs hope Szczur will be ready.
Thus, with Szczur taking the center field job in 2014 and Jackson manning right field starting in 2013, the only question that remains is who will take over for Soriano after the 2014 season. Baseball America predicts that Josh Vitters will be moved to left field, in part to make room for Javier Baez. However, I don't see that happening.
The Cubs could go with 2010 second round pick Reggie Golden, who is still raw but projects to have good power, or they could go with someone like Jae-Hoon Ha, a player with good all around tools, but probably best known for his defense. I think the Cubs will eventually go with Golden as he profiles better as a corner outfielder.
Of course, all of the above assumes that the Cubs don't go out and spend a boatload of money on free agents or trade to fill their holes.
With that said, here are how the Cubs lineups might look for 2012-2015:
2012
Around this time of year, when there is a lull in the Cubs Hot Stove season, I often find myself thinking of the Cubs future and what their team might look like. Part of my inspiration is a feature that Baseball America puts out as part of each team's Top 10 prospect page, where they project a team's future lineup 4 years out. Thus, this year, they project the Cubs' 2015 lineup.
Its a fun little exercise and can be a valuable tool for fantasy leaguers (especially those in Dynasty Leagues), who want to get a jump on the next big prospect (or even unearth a potential sleeper).
So, with a nod to Baseball America, here are my thoughts on the Cubs future lineups, going position by position:
Catcher
Geovany Soto is under team control for two more years and has been up and down each year since his ROY campaign in 2008. Welington Castillo is the Cubs top catching prospect, ranking #6 on the Cubs 2012 Composite Top 10 Prospect List, and should at least serve as Soto's backup in 2012.
Despite his struggles in 2011, Soto is a better hitter than Castillo, although Castillo has a better arm. If the Cubs find that Soto is becoming too expensive, they could let Soto walk after the 2013 season and make Castillo the starter beginning in 2014.
First Base
The Cubs do not appear to be interested in Prince Fielder (at least not at his current asking price). But, fear not, for they may have drafted their own version of Prince, taking Dan Vogelbach in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft.
At 6'0" and 240, Vogelbach is a large specimen with prodigious power, breaking Bryce Harper's record for the longest homerun at the annual Power Showcase. But, like Prince, he has to watch his weight. He actually dropped 40 pounds between 2010 and 2011, and he will need to maintain that if he wants to play in the NL.
As a high schooler, it could take 3-4 years for Vogelbach to develop. So, unless the Cubs go out and trade for Anthony Rizzo or Kendrys Morales, Bryan LaHair may be the Cubs starting first baseman for a while. If that doesn't pan out, the Cubs could call up Josh Vitters and move Ian Stewart to first. However, Vogelbach is likely the future for the Cubs.
Second Base
Darwin Barney showed enough in 2011 to be penciled in as the Cubs starter for 2012. However, after hitting .306/.334/.374 in the first half, he tailed off considerably in the second half with a .238/.286/.328 line. With a career OPS of .711 in the minors and .656 in 608 AB's in the majors, I'm not convinced that Barney is the long-term answer at second for the Cubs.
However, after losing Ryan Flaherty in the Rule 5 draft and trading away D.J. LaMahieu and Hak-Ju Lee the last two years, the Cubs do not have a lot of quality middle infield prospects in their system, at least at the upper levels. Junior Lake could potentially play second for the Cubs, but his minor league track record is actually worse than Barney's.
Baseball America lists 2011 draftee Zeke DeVoss as the Cubs second baseman in 2015, however he might not make his major league debut until 2014. Until then, we'll likely see Barney man the keystone position.
Shortstop
OK, this one is a no-brainer. Starlin Castro is the present and future shortstop for the Cubs. No questions asked.
Third Base
The Cubs traded their disappointing outfielder, Tyler Colvin, for the Rockies disappointing third baseman, Ian Stewart, this offseason and Stewart should open the season as the starter. In his second year of arbitration, the Cubs control Stewart through the 2013 season, by which time they hope that Josh Vitters will finally be ready to take over.
Vitters showed some improvement at the plate this year at AA Tennessee, hitting .283/.322/.448 and the Cubs hope he can build upon that in 2012. Vitters could get a September callup in 2012 and push Stewart for the starting job in 2013.
However, the future at third appears to be the Cubs top pick in the 2011 draft, Javier Baez. Although he was drafted as a shortstop, most scouts see him eventually moving to third.
Outfield
The Cubs have been trying to trade left fielder Alfonso Soriano for the last two years. However, despite their willingness to eat a large part of the $54 million remaining on his contract, there has not been a lot of interest. At age 35 and well into his decline years, the Cubs could end up just releasing Soriano before his contract expires after the 2014 season, but its just as likely that they keep trotting him out there.
Marlon Byrd is the incumbent in center, but is a free agent after the 2012 season. By then, Brett Jackson should be ready to take over in center, but that may just be temporary as the organization believes that Matt Szczur is their center fielder of the future.
The signing of David DeJesus gives the Cubs some flexibility should they finally part ways with Soriano, but for 2012 DeJesus is slated to start in right and lead off for the Cubs. DeJesus is signed through 2013, by which time the Cubs hope Szczur will be ready.
Thus, with Szczur taking the center field job in 2014 and Jackson manning right field starting in 2013, the only question that remains is who will take over for Soriano after the 2014 season. Baseball America predicts that Josh Vitters will be moved to left field, in part to make room for Javier Baez. However, I don't see that happening.
The Cubs could go with 2010 second round pick Reggie Golden, who is still raw but projects to have good power, or they could go with someone like Jae-Hoon Ha, a player with good all around tools, but probably best known for his defense. I think the Cubs will eventually go with Golden as he profiles better as a corner outfielder.
Of course, all of the above assumes that the Cubs don't go out and spend a boatload of money on free agents or trade to fill their holes.
With that said, here are how the Cubs lineups might look for 2012-2015:
2012
- David DeJesus - RF
- Darwin Barney - 2B
- Starlin Castro - SS
- Marlon Byrd - CF
- Bryan LaHair - 1B, with Anthony Rizzo possibly taking over mid-season
- Geovany Soto - C
- Alfonso Soriano - LF
- Ian Stewart - 3B
- pitcher
- David DeJesus - RF
- Brett Jackson - CF
- Starlin Castro - SS
- Anthony Rizzo - 1B
- Geovany Soto - C
- Alfonso Soriano - LF
- Ian Stewart - 3B
- Darwin Barney - 2B
- pitcher
- Matt Szczur - CF
- Zeke DeVoss - 2B
- Starlin Castro - SS
- Anthony Rizzo - 1B
- Brett Jackson - RF
- Josh Vitters/Javier Baez - 3B
- Alfonso Soriano - LF
- Welington Castillo - C
- pitcher
- Matt Szczur - CF
- Brett Jackson - RF
- Starlin Castro - SS
- Javier Baez - 3B
- Anthony Rizzo/Dan Vogelbach - 1B
- Zeke DeVoss - 2B
- Reggie Golden - LF
- Welington Castillo - C
- pitcher
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