The Cubs have undergone a major overhaul this offseason, as Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have worked hard at making the team younger while also bolstering a farm system lacking depth.
However, through it all, one question keeps popping in my head: Who is going to be the Cubs ace?
Currently, Matt Garza appears to be the de facto ace for the Cubs. However, that is in name only. On a good team, he would be no better than a #2 or #3 starter.
The Cubs top pitching prospects don't project to be future aces either, as Trey McNutt and Dillon Maples both project as #2 starters, at best.
Thus, the Cubs will need to look outside their organization to find an ace. Enter Cole Hamels.
Hamels, who recently agreed to a one-year, $15 million deal with the Phillies, buying out his last year of arbitration, is likely to be a free agent after 2012. The Phillies have discussed an extension with him, but it doesn't appear that it will happen.
The Cubs will likely have some cash to spend after the 2012 season. Carlos Zambrano and his $15.5 million remaining commitment will be off the books, along with Ryan Dempster ($14 million) and Marlon Byrd ($6.5 million). Even with arbitration raises for current Cubbies (Geovany Soto, Chris Volstad, Ian Stewart, Jeff Samardzija, Blake DeWitt and first time eligible Starlin Castro), the Cubs should have at least $20-25 million to spend.
That should be enough to sign someone like Hamels. The most recent comparable pitcher to hit free agency was C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia was 27 when he reached free agency, while Hamels will be 29. Sabathia ended up signing an 8-year, $182 million contract for an average salary of $22.75 per year. I expect Hamels to get 8 years and close to $200 million.
As with most star players, the biggest competition for Hamels services will likely come from the Yankees and the Red Sox. Which means the Cubs could end up in a bidding war. But, if I were the GM for the Cubs, I would go all out in an attempt to sign Hamels. Even if the Cubs are on the 3-year rebuilding plan, they are going to need an ace when the team is ready to contend in 2014 or 2015 and Hamels appears to be the best candidate for that role.
Side Note:
I have recently joined the staff of Full Spectrum Baseball and will be writing fantasy articles for their site to be posted weekly on Saturday and Tuesday mornings. The site has some excellent writers, led by Bill Ivie (I70 Baseball) and Daniel Aubain (COSFBA) and I'm looking forward to working with them. Please check out the new site (just went live today) and let us know what you think.
Not a good idea...many players sign big, long-term deals...Hendry signed medicre players such as Zambrano ("head case"), Soriano-no speed, strikes out too often, and pathetic defense, and an outfielder from Japan, who could not hit lefties with little power, who was passed his prime. I've waited fifty years+ for the Cubs to win...I'd rather build through the farm system and not sign veterans to huge guaranteed contracts...
ReplyDeleteThat's fine that you expressed the opinion that Hamels would be a good sign. But it is completely irresponsible to say "The Phillies have discussed an extension with him, but it doesn't appear that it will happen".
ReplyDeleteWhere is your evidence of such a conclusion? It seems far more credible to say that the fact that no long term deal in place yet suggests he may wind up a free agent. The Phillies have increased their payroll by about 50% in the last 4 years, and already been generous to players in general. Whether they want to expand that approach additionally is probably what separates a deal from getting done. It's not a great sign that they haven't jumped at it (a lot of clammoring to get this done for over a year has populated Phillie blogs), but there is adequate time to state any likely finish. Sabathia money wasn't an unfair estimate.
Also, don't sell a potential bidding field short by limiting it to the Yanks and Red Sox. At a minimum, the Dodgers with new ownership could be a player. Washington and Florida, should hey sell tickets the way the Phillies do might evolve as they move closer to steady contender. I'm of the understanding that Toronto is sitting on a lot of cash, but is being patient until they feel they are closer to contending, maybe just 1 year away. Maybe the Mets situation clears up in the coming months as well.
I'm a Phillies fan if disclosure explains any unintended subjectivity.
Ken,
ReplyDeleteGood comments. Although I have no evidence that the Phillies won't reach an extension with Hamels, what I have seen on the rumor front is that, since he accepted just a one year deal, its an indication that the sides are far apart on an extension. I think he will end up testing free agency, but that's just my opinion.
Also, while I agree that other teams could be involved in the bidding for Hamels, it always seems that, if the Yankees or Red Sox really want a player, they are going to get hem. Maybe I've become a bit jaded over the years, watching the Yankees throw tons of money at players they want, while other teams are stuck with the leftovers.
Maybe times are changing a little, as the Yankees have been pretty quiet this offseason. But, when it comes down to it, I don't see the Marlins or Nats competing with the Yankees, Red Sox or perhaps even the Cubs for the top free agents.
Mark