Projecting the Cubs future lineups.

NOTE: UPDATED FOR THE RIZZO FOR CASHNER TRADE

Around this time of year, when there is a lull in the Cubs Hot Stove season, I often find myself thinking of the Cubs future and what their team might look like.  Part of my inspiration is a feature that Baseball America puts out as part of each team's Top 10 prospect page, where they project a team's future lineup 4 years out.  Thus, this year, they project the Cubs' 2015 lineup. 

Its a fun little exercise and can be a valuable tool for fantasy leaguers (especially those in Dynasty Leagues), who want to get a jump on the next big prospect (or even unearth a potential sleeper).

So, with a nod to Baseball America, here are my thoughts on the Cubs future lineups, going position by position:

Catcher

Geovany Soto is under team control for two more years and has been up and down each year since his ROY campaign in 2008.  Welington Castillo is the Cubs top catching prospect, ranking #6 on the Cubs 2012 Composite Top 10 Prospect List, and should at least serve as Soto's backup in 2012.

Despite his struggles in 2011, Soto is a better hitter than Castillo, although Castillo has a better arm.  If the Cubs find that Soto is becoming too expensive, they could let Soto walk after the 2013 season and make Castillo the starter beginning in 2014.

First Base

The Cubs do not appear to be interested in Prince Fielder (at least not at his current asking price).  But, fear not, for they may have drafted their own version of Prince, taking Dan Vogelbach in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft.

At 6'0" and 240, Vogelbach is a large specimen with prodigious power, breaking Bryce Harper's record for the longest homerun at the annual Power Showcase.  But, like Prince, he has to watch his weight.  He actually dropped 40 pounds between 2010 and 2011, and he will need to maintain that if he wants to play in the NL.

As a high schooler, it could take 3-4 years for Vogelbach to develop.  So, unless the Cubs go out and trade for Anthony Rizzo or Kendrys Morales, Bryan LaHair may be the Cubs starting first baseman for a while.  If that doesn't pan out, the Cubs could call up Josh Vitters and move Ian Stewart to first. However, Vogelbach is likely the future for the Cubs.

Second Base

Darwin Barney showed enough in 2011 to be penciled in as the Cubs starter for 2012.  However, after hitting .306/.334/.374 in the first half, he tailed off considerably in the second half with a .238/.286/.328 line.  With a career OPS of  .711 in the minors and .656 in 608 AB's in the majors, I'm not convinced that Barney is the long-term answer at second for the Cubs.

However, after losing Ryan Flaherty in the Rule 5 draft and trading away D.J. LaMahieu and Hak-Ju Lee the last two years, the Cubs do not have a lot of quality middle infield prospects in their system, at least at the upper levels.  Junior Lake could potentially play second for the Cubs, but his minor league track record is actually worse than Barney's.

Baseball America lists 2011 draftee Zeke DeVoss as the Cubs second baseman in 2015, however he might not make his major league debut until 2014.  Until then, we'll likely see Barney man the keystone position.

Shortstop

OK, this one is a no-brainer.  Starlin Castro is the present and future shortstop for the Cubs.  No questions asked.

Third Base

The Cubs traded their disappointing outfielder, Tyler Colvin, for the Rockies disappointing third baseman, Ian Stewart, this offseason and Stewart should open the season as the starter.  In his second year of arbitration, the Cubs control Stewart through the 2013 season, by which time they hope that Josh Vitters will finally be ready to take over.

Vitters showed some improvement at the plate this year at AA Tennessee, hitting .283/.322/.448 and the Cubs hope he can build upon that in 2012.  Vitters could get a September callup in 2012 and push Stewart for the starting job in 2013.

However, the future at third appears to be the Cubs top pick in the 2011 draft, Javier Baez.  Although he was drafted as a shortstop, most scouts see him eventually moving to third. 

Outfield

The Cubs have been trying to trade left fielder Alfonso Soriano for the last two years.  However, despite their willingness to eat a large part of the $54 million remaining on his contract, there has not been a lot of interest.  At age 35 and well into his decline years, the Cubs could end up just releasing Soriano before his contract expires after the 2014 season, but its just as likely that they keep trotting him out there.   


Marlon Byrd is the incumbent in center, but is a free agent after the 2012 season.  By then, Brett Jackson should be ready to take over in center, but that may just be temporary as the organization believes that Matt Szczur is their center fielder of the future. 

The signing of David DeJesus gives the Cubs some flexibility should they finally part ways with Soriano, but for 2012 DeJesus is slated to start in right and lead off for the Cubs.  DeJesus is signed through 2013, by which time the Cubs hope Szczur will be ready.

Thus, with Szczur taking the center field job in 2014 and Jackson manning right field starting in 2013, the only question that remains is who will take over for Soriano after the 2014 season.  Baseball America predicts that Josh Vitters will be moved to left field, in part to make room for Javier Baez.  However, I don't see that happening.

The Cubs could go with 2010 second round pick Reggie Golden, who is still raw but projects to have good power, or they could go with someone like Jae-Hoon Ha, a player with good all around tools, but probably best known for his defense.  I think the Cubs will eventually go with Golden as he profiles better as a corner outfielder.

Of course, all of the above assumes that the Cubs don't go out and spend a boatload of money on free agents or trade to fill their holes.

With that said, here are how the Cubs lineups might look for 2012-2015:

2012

1. David DeJesus - RF
2. Darwin Barney - 2B
3. Starlin Castro - SS
4. Marlon Byrd - CF
5. Bryan LaHair - 1B, with Anthony Rizzo possibly taking over mid-season
6. Geovany Soto - C
7. Alfonso Soriano - LF
8. Ian Stewart - 3B
9. pitcher

2013

1. David DeJesus - RF
2. Brett Jackson - CF
3. Starlin Castro - SS
4. Anthony Rizzo - 1B
5. Geovany Soto - C
6. Alfonso Soriano - LF
7. Ian Stewart - 3B
8. Darwin Barney - 2B
9. pitcher

2014

1. Matt Szczur - CF
2. Zeke DeVoss - 2B
3. Starlin Castro - SS
4. Anthony Rizzo - 1B
5. Brett Jackson - RF
6. Josh Vitters/Javier Baez - 3B
7. Alfonso Soriano - LF
8. Welington Castillo - C
9. pitcher

2015

1. Matt Szczur - CF
2. Brett Jackson - RF
3. Starlin Castro - SS
4. Javier Baez - 3B
5. Anthony Rizzo/Dan Vogelbach - 1B
6. Zeke DeVoss - 2B
7. Reggie Golden - LF
8. Welington Castillo - C
9. pitcher

Up next I'll try to project the Cubs future starting rotations and closers.