Despite Theo Epstein's comments that Matt Garza is "exactly (the) type of pitcher we want to build around", it appears that, with the Cubs planning to go through a complete rebuilding, the Cubs are willing to listen to offers for their "ace".
David Kaplan recently reported that the trade talks are heating up, with Toronto, Boston and the Yankees interested. Jon Paul Morosi also reported today that the Tigers have emerged as potential suitors for Garza.
With Garza one on the best starting pitchers remaining on the block and the Cubs apparently targeting young starting pitching in return, what can we expect the Cubs to get in exchange for Garza?
First, its hard to see the Red Sox making a serious push for Garza, as they have already traded away some of their minor league depth in acquiring Mark Melancon from the Astros and Andrew Bailey from the A's. So, it probably comes down to the Blue Jays, Tigers and Yankees as the most likely suitors.
Second, we cannot expect to get the kind of returns that pitchers Mat Latos or Gio Gonzalez netted, as Garza is only under team control for 2 more years, whereas the aforementioned pitchers are all under control for at least 4 years.
The Trevor Cahill trade may be a good benchmark as Cahill is a lesser pitcher than Garza, but under team control longer. Cahill and lefty reliever Craig Breslow netted the A's Jarrod Parker, the Diamondbacks 4th best prospect (per Baseball America), plus a good outfield prospect in Collin Cowgill as well as relief prospect Ryan Cook.
The Cubs should be able to acquire at least a couple good prospects for Garza, with one being a top pitching prospect who is close to the majors. Looking at the prospects for the Yankees, Tigers and Jays, here are the players I would target:
Yankees
New York probably has two of the best pitching prospects of any team involved in the Garza discussions in Dellin Betances (3.70 ERA and 142 K's in 126.1 IP between AA/AAA) and Manny Banuelos (3.75 ERA and 125 K's in 129.2 IP at AA/AAA). Any trade with the Yankees would have to include one of these two pitchers. However, Betances may be easier to pry away from them as Banuelos is a lefty and thus inherently more valuable.
After that, I would target one or two lower level prospects, such as second baseman Corban Joseph (.277/.353/.415 in AA) or outfielder Mason Williams (.349/.395/.468 in 269 AB's in low A).
Tigers
First and foremost on the list of players I would target from the Tigers is Jacob Turner (3.44 ERA with 110 K's in 131 IP between AA/AAA). He ranked as the Tigers number one prospect (by Baseball America) prior to the 2011 season and should be number one on the Cubs list.
If the Tigers claim that Turner is "untouchable", then another possibility might be lefty Andy Oliver (4.71 ERA with 143 K's in 147 IP at AAA). He has battled wildness the last two years (over 4.2 BB/9 each year), but still projects as a front-line starter.
In addition to one of those two pitchers, perhaps the Cubs could acquire one of the Tigers top outfield prospects in either Daniel Fields (.220/.308/.326 in high A) or Avisail Garcia (.264/.297/.389 in high A). Both have good tools that haven't translated to the field yet and are probably expendable in Detroit's eyes.
Blue Jays
Toppping my list from the Jays would be Kyle Drabek. He struggled in both the majors (6.06 ERA in 78.2 IP) and at AAA (7.44 ERA in 75 IP) in 2011, but ranked as the Jays top prospect heading into the season. The son of former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, Kyle has top of the rotation stuff and was part of the Phillies trade for Roy Halladay back in 2009.
Other than Drabek, most of the Jays top pitching prospects are still in the low minors or do not project to be front-line starters. Thus, I would probably target a better secondary prospect (in addition to Drabek). One such prospect is outfielder Jake Marisnick (.320/.392/.496 in low A). Another possibility might be catcher Travis d'Arnaud (.311/.371/.542), who is currently blocked by J.P. Arencibia in Toronto, but that might be a bit of a stretch.
After trading Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer for Garza, Fernando Perez (no longer with the Cubs) and Zach Rosscup last year, its hard to see the Cubs coming out ahead in this game. But if the Cubs really are intent on trading Garza, then acquiring one of these top pitching prospects could at least lessen the sting a little.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Are the Cubs becoming a Small Market Team?
OK, I'll admit it. I'm spoiled.
After years of seeing Cubs ownership pocket the profits while the play on the field suffered, it was refreshing to see the Cubs actually go out and spend money on free agents and become an instant contender. Sure, it was mainly done to drive up the price of the team, but it was nice to finally see the Cubs act like a large market team.
Now I'm concerned that we are heading back towards the old way of doing things. I'm not talking about the Cubs apparent unwillingness to go out and sign Prince Fielder to a 10 year $240 million contract. I actually think that's probably in the Cubs best interest, in the long run.
What concerns me is the Cubs dangling pitchers Matt Garza and Sean Marshall, guys who are actually paid what they are worth, in an attempt to acquire younger, cheaper players. These are guys who the Cubs should be trying to sign to extensions, not trade.
The Marshall rumors make the least sense to me, as the Cubs appear to be looking to trade him to the Reds for starter Travis Wood (and perhaps a couple minor leaguers). If the Cubs are really that desperate to find starting pitching, why not just convert Marshall back to a starter role? C.J. Wilson worked as a reliever in the majors for the better part of 5 years, before becoming a starter. It worked out so well for him, that he was the most highly sought after free agent starter on the market this year, eventually signing for 5 years and $77 million.
I could see Marshall becoming a successful starter in the majors, if the Cubs would just give him the chance. However, he was pigeonholed into the bullpen and, largely due to his success in that role, that is where he has stayed.
With Theo Epstein (large market) and Jed Hoyer (small market) at the helm, the Cubs should have the experience to work both sides of the equation. Utilize the draft and international signings to build from within, while spending when necessary to fill in the gaps.
While the carryover effects of some of the large contracts from past management may limit the clubs ability to go out and land the big fish, they should not prevent the Cubs from retaining the valuable commodities they already have.
After years of seeing Cubs ownership pocket the profits while the play on the field suffered, it was refreshing to see the Cubs actually go out and spend money on free agents and become an instant contender. Sure, it was mainly done to drive up the price of the team, but it was nice to finally see the Cubs act like a large market team.
Now I'm concerned that we are heading back towards the old way of doing things. I'm not talking about the Cubs apparent unwillingness to go out and sign Prince Fielder to a 10 year $240 million contract. I actually think that's probably in the Cubs best interest, in the long run.
What concerns me is the Cubs dangling pitchers Matt Garza and Sean Marshall, guys who are actually paid what they are worth, in an attempt to acquire younger, cheaper players. These are guys who the Cubs should be trying to sign to extensions, not trade.
The Marshall rumors make the least sense to me, as the Cubs appear to be looking to trade him to the Reds for starter Travis Wood (and perhaps a couple minor leaguers). If the Cubs are really that desperate to find starting pitching, why not just convert Marshall back to a starter role? C.J. Wilson worked as a reliever in the majors for the better part of 5 years, before becoming a starter. It worked out so well for him, that he was the most highly sought after free agent starter on the market this year, eventually signing for 5 years and $77 million.
I could see Marshall becoming a successful starter in the majors, if the Cubs would just give him the chance. However, he was pigeonholed into the bullpen and, largely due to his success in that role, that is where he has stayed.
With Theo Epstein (large market) and Jed Hoyer (small market) at the helm, the Cubs should have the experience to work both sides of the equation. Utilize the draft and international signings to build from within, while spending when necessary to fill in the gaps.
While the carryover effects of some of the large contracts from past management may limit the clubs ability to go out and land the big fish, they should not prevent the Cubs from retaining the valuable commodities they already have.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Cubs Rotation in a state of flux?
The Cubs starting pitching was dreadful in 2011, posting a combined ERA of 4.79 and leading the Cubs to a 14th place finish in both Team ERA (4.33) and runs allowed (756).
In light of this, you would think that the first order of business for new President Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer would be to shore up the rotation. However, most recent rumors involve the Cubs trading Matt Garza, the only starter to post an ERA under 4.00 in 2011.
I realize that pitching is in high demand and sometimes it makes sense to move a player if the price is right, however I'm not seeing that in this case. Garza is still under team control for two more years and is projected to make around $8.7 million in 2012, a reasonable price for your "ace".
If the Cubs could get a good return on Garza and then turn around and sign a replacement via free agency, it would make more sense. However, teams are already balking at the Cubs high asking price and the only free agent pitcher the Cubs have had recent discussions with is Paul Maholm, not exactly an even trade.
For his part, Epstein has said that Garza is "the type of guy we'd like to build around," which puts me a little more at ease, because a rotation of Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells and a pitcher to be named later (Jeff Samardzija, anyone?), does not inspire a lot of confidence.
Pitching should be priority #1 (and maybe even priority #2) or we will be in for another long season.
In light of this, you would think that the first order of business for new President Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer would be to shore up the rotation. However, most recent rumors involve the Cubs trading Matt Garza, the only starter to post an ERA under 4.00 in 2011.
I realize that pitching is in high demand and sometimes it makes sense to move a player if the price is right, however I'm not seeing that in this case. Garza is still under team control for two more years and is projected to make around $8.7 million in 2012, a reasonable price for your "ace".
If the Cubs could get a good return on Garza and then turn around and sign a replacement via free agency, it would make more sense. However, teams are already balking at the Cubs high asking price and the only free agent pitcher the Cubs have had recent discussions with is Paul Maholm, not exactly an even trade.
For his part, Epstein has said that Garza is "the type of guy we'd like to build around," which puts me a little more at ease, because a rotation of Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells and a pitcher to be named later (Jeff Samardzija, anyone?), does not inspire a lot of confidence.
Pitching should be priority #1 (and maybe even priority #2) or we will be in for another long season.
Monday, December 19, 2011
Are the Cubs in or out on Prince Fielder?
Ever since the offseason began, there have been conflicting reports as to whether the Cubs are pursuing Prince Fielder or not.
It all started back in late November when ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that neither Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder made long-term sense for the Cubs. Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal countered that the Cubs were pursuing both Pujols and Fielder, due to the dwindling number of sluggers available in free agency.
But that was just the start. From there, we heard Tom Ricketts say that any mega-deal for Pujols or Fielder was up to Theo Epstein.
On December 5th, Jon Paul Morosi seemingly contradicted himself within his own article, saying that the Cubs are one of 6 teams that are pursuing Fielder but then saying that "they might not be a serious player".
On December 7th, we heard from Jon Heyman that the Cubs were eyeing Fielder more than Pujols and that their interest appears sincere. However, manager Dale Sveum told reporters that the Cubs "aren't in any kind of process with Fielder." Jed Hoyer told MLB.com that their pursuit of Prince has been overblown. While, for what its worth, one of Fielder's friends said that he is very interested in the Cubs.
On December 8th, there was the infamous Peter Gammons tweet that the Cubs did not have the cash for Fielder.
Jon Heyman tweeted on December 12th that the Cubs are definitely in the mix for Fielder.
On December 15th, we heard Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (pay site) say that the Cubs are ramping up their pursuit of Fielder, whereas Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweeted that the Cubs "are not major players" for Fielder" as they are "not ready to spend big".
December 16th brought us a feature by Ken Rosenthal saying that the Cubs are the frontrunners for Fielder. However, Dale Sveum told both Paul Sullivan and Gordon Wittenmyer that the Cubs have not had any contact with Fielder.
Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago reported on December 17th that, according to two major league sources, the Cubs "will continue to be involved in the Prince Fielder free-agent bidding." But, as of yesterday, Nick Cafardo remained skeptical.
Which brings us to today and we still don't know which direction the Cubs are headed. Either the Cubs are legitimate contenders for Fielder's services or it is all just a smokescreen, as Joe Strauss suggests, as the Cubs pursue younger players such as the Padres' Anthony Rizzo.
My feeling is that it really could go either way, but that it all depends on the market for Fielder. If the Cubs can get him for around 6 years and $150 million, then they'll do it, but if Fielder and agent Scott Boras are truly seeking a 10-year deal in the neighborhood of $225 million plus, the Cubs will pass and go after the younger players.
Either case would be a good get for the Cubs, as a shorter term contract with Fielder will make it less likely for him to eat himself into a DH role, whereas a younger player, such as Rizzo could be under team control for 6 years.
Both scenarios would be preferable to another 10-year-Alfonso-Soriano-type contract and hopefully that is Theo Epstein's thinking as well.
It all started back in late November when ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that neither Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder made long-term sense for the Cubs. Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal countered that the Cubs were pursuing both Pujols and Fielder, due to the dwindling number of sluggers available in free agency.
But that was just the start. From there, we heard Tom Ricketts say that any mega-deal for Pujols or Fielder was up to Theo Epstein.
On December 5th, Jon Paul Morosi seemingly contradicted himself within his own article, saying that the Cubs are one of 6 teams that are pursuing Fielder but then saying that "they might not be a serious player".
On December 7th, we heard from Jon Heyman that the Cubs were eyeing Fielder more than Pujols and that their interest appears sincere. However, manager Dale Sveum told reporters that the Cubs "aren't in any kind of process with Fielder." Jed Hoyer told MLB.com that their pursuit of Prince has been overblown. While, for what its worth, one of Fielder's friends said that he is very interested in the Cubs.
On December 8th, there was the infamous Peter Gammons tweet that the Cubs did not have the cash for Fielder.
Jon Heyman tweeted on December 12th that the Cubs are definitely in the mix for Fielder.
On December 15th, we heard Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (pay site) say that the Cubs are ramping up their pursuit of Fielder, whereas Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweeted that the Cubs "are not major players" for Fielder" as they are "not ready to spend big".
December 16th brought us a feature by Ken Rosenthal saying that the Cubs are the frontrunners for Fielder. However, Dale Sveum told both Paul Sullivan and Gordon Wittenmyer that the Cubs have not had any contact with Fielder.
Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago reported on December 17th that, according to two major league sources, the Cubs "will continue to be involved in the Prince Fielder free-agent bidding." But, as of yesterday, Nick Cafardo remained skeptical.
Which brings us to today and we still don't know which direction the Cubs are headed. Either the Cubs are legitimate contenders for Fielder's services or it is all just a smokescreen, as Joe Strauss suggests, as the Cubs pursue younger players such as the Padres' Anthony Rizzo.
My feeling is that it really could go either way, but that it all depends on the market for Fielder. If the Cubs can get him for around 6 years and $150 million, then they'll do it, but if Fielder and agent Scott Boras are truly seeking a 10-year deal in the neighborhood of $225 million plus, the Cubs will pass and go after the younger players.
Either case would be a good get for the Cubs, as a shorter term contract with Fielder will make it less likely for him to eat himself into a DH role, whereas a younger player, such as Rizzo could be under team control for 6 years.
Both scenarios would be preferable to another 10-year-Alfonso-Soriano-type contract and hopefully that is Theo Epstein's thinking as well.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
The 2012 Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect List (version 1.0)
Its time once again to unveil the Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect List.
For those of you who were not around last year, this is where I search the internet to find as many Top 10 Prospect lists for the Cubs as I can. Then, using a formula of 10 points for 1st, 9 points for 2nd, etc. I assign points for each of the lists, add them up and sort the total points from highest to lowest to give me a composite Top 10.
For this, the 2012 version 1.0, I found 8 websites with 9 different lists. You can find links to each listing at the Cubs Composite Top Prospects page. I will update this list in late January or early February, as I expect at least a couple more lists to be posted by then.
So, without further ado, here they are your 2012 Composite Top 10 Cubs Prospects:
A few interesting tidbits from this exercise:
For those of you who were not around last year, this is where I search the internet to find as many Top 10 Prospect lists for the Cubs as I can. Then, using a formula of 10 points for 1st, 9 points for 2nd, etc. I assign points for each of the lists, add them up and sort the total points from highest to lowest to give me a composite Top 10.
For this, the 2012 version 1.0, I found 8 websites with 9 different lists. You can find links to each listing at the Cubs Composite Top Prospects page. I will update this list in late January or early February, as I expect at least a couple more lists to be posted by then.
So, without further ado, here they are your 2012 Composite Top 10 Cubs Prospects:
| 2012 Composite Top Prospects | |||||
| Total | Hi | Low | |||
| Rank | Name | Pts | Rank | Rank | |
| 1 | Brett Jackson | 87 | 1 | 2 | |
| 2 | Javier Baez | 84 | 1 | 2 | |
| 3 | Matthew Szczur | 61 | 3 | 8 | |
| 4 | Trey McNutt | 48 | 4 | NR | |
| 4 | Dillon Maples | 48 | 4 | NR | |
| 6 | Josh Vitters | 26 | 6 | NR | |
| 6 | Welington Castillo | 26 | 3 | NR | |
| 8 | Jeimer Candelario | 23 | 5 | NR | |
| 9 | Daniel Vogelbach | 21 | 7 | NR | |
| 10 | Benjamin Wells | 14 | 7 | NR | |
| Others earning points: | |||||
| Chris Carpenter (13), Junior Lake (12), Rafael Dolis (8), Reggie Golden (6), Zeke DeVoss (5), Jae-Hoon Ha (3), Pin-Chieh Chen (3), Austin Kirk (2), Anthony Zych (2), Marco Hernandez (2), Dae-Eun Rhee (1). | |||||
A few interesting tidbits from this exercise:
- Either Brett Jackson or Javier Baez was the top prospect on all 9 lists, with Jackson receiving 6 first place votes and Baez 3.
- After the top 2, only Matt Szczur was named on all 9 lists, receiving six 3rds, a 5th, a 7th and an 8th.
- 8 players (from Reggie Golden to Dae-Eun Rhee on the others receiving points list) were named on only one list, showing just how diversified the opinions are regarding top prospects.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Finally! Cubs Non-Tender Koyie Hill
Maybe it just took new management to see the light or maybe someone finally asked "why are we paying this guy $850K when we have minor leaguers who can produce better results at half the price?".
Whatever the case, the Cubs finally non-tendered Koyie Hill last night after five seasons with the team. During those 5 seasons, Hill hit .208/.270/.295 and the fact that he averaged over 200 AB's the last 3 seasons is the most mind-boggling thing of all.
Sometimes managers stick with their veterans a little too long and block a youngster from getting an opportunity. This was the case in 2010, when Geovany Soto got hurt and Mike Quade kept putting Hill in the lineup instead of giving Welington Castillo a chance.
Now, Castillo will get that chance and I, for one, am interested to see what he can do. Castillo has hit a combined .270/.332/.507 in 471 AB's the last two years at AAA Iowa, including 28 homeruns. His plate discipline leaves a little to be desired, but his defense (37% CS in his minor league career) and his pop should be enough to make people forget about Hill.
As for the other arbitration eligible players (Jeff Baker, Blake DeWitt, Matt Garza, Geovany Soto, Ian Stewart and Randy Wells), all were tendered contracts and will most likely receive raises headed into 2012.
Whatever the case, the Cubs finally non-tendered Koyie Hill last night after five seasons with the team. During those 5 seasons, Hill hit .208/.270/.295 and the fact that he averaged over 200 AB's the last 3 seasons is the most mind-boggling thing of all.
Sometimes managers stick with their veterans a little too long and block a youngster from getting an opportunity. This was the case in 2010, when Geovany Soto got hurt and Mike Quade kept putting Hill in the lineup instead of giving Welington Castillo a chance.
Now, Castillo will get that chance and I, for one, am interested to see what he can do. Castillo has hit a combined .270/.332/.507 in 471 AB's the last two years at AAA Iowa, including 28 homeruns. His plate discipline leaves a little to be desired, but his defense (37% CS in his minor league career) and his pop should be enough to make people forget about Hill.
As for the other arbitration eligible players (Jeff Baker, Blake DeWitt, Matt Garza, Geovany Soto, Ian Stewart and Randy Wells), all were tendered contracts and will most likely receive raises headed into 2012.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Who's on First?
Stop me if you've heard this one before.
After spending most of last offseason looking for a first baseman, the Cubs find themselves in the same predicament this year.
Albert Pujols' $254 million, 10 year contract will probably raise the stakes on the other big name free agent first baseman, Prince Fielder. Fielder won't command that type of contract, but I could certainly see him getting 8 years and at least $20 million per. I'm thinking something along the lines of Mark Texeira's 8 year, $180 million contract.
According to Joel Sherman, many major league executives believe that the Cubs will end up getting Fielder. The general thinking is that Theo Epstein wants to make a "statement sign" in his first year and recognizes that there is a dearth of power hitters expected to hit free agency in coming years.
This goes against the Peter Gammons report from a couple days ago that said the Cubs lacked the cash to sign Prince Fielder. However, as much as I respect Gammons, this statement does not make any sense, considering how much cash the Cubs actually have to spend. Perhaps the Cubs are feeding Gammons some misinformation, so that they can be the mystery team that ends up signing Fielder.
If the Cubs do get outbid on Fielder, there are not a lot of other options out there. There was some speculation that the Angels would non-tender Kendrys Morales, however recent reports say that they will tender him a contract. Angels GM Jerry Dipoto sees Morales as possible protection for Pujols, which may mean they are more likely to trade Mark Trumbo. In either case, they have at least one extra first baseman/DH, so something's got to give.
Carlos Pena could be a fallback option for the Cubs. However, he is looking for a multi-year deal and I don't think the Cubs are willing to offer more than a one year contract.
What concerns me though is a little tidbit hidden away in a Gordon Wittenmyer article from December 5, in which Theo Epstein, in his first meeting with Cubs' career minor leaguer Bryan LaHair told him that he has a chance to win at least a major share of the first base job next spring.
If that is the case, we could be in for a long winter and another long season.
After spending most of last offseason looking for a first baseman, the Cubs find themselves in the same predicament this year.
Albert Pujols' $254 million, 10 year contract will probably raise the stakes on the other big name free agent first baseman, Prince Fielder. Fielder won't command that type of contract, but I could certainly see him getting 8 years and at least $20 million per. I'm thinking something along the lines of Mark Texeira's 8 year, $180 million contract.
According to Joel Sherman, many major league executives believe that the Cubs will end up getting Fielder. The general thinking is that Theo Epstein wants to make a "statement sign" in his first year and recognizes that there is a dearth of power hitters expected to hit free agency in coming years.
This goes against the Peter Gammons report from a couple days ago that said the Cubs lacked the cash to sign Prince Fielder. However, as much as I respect Gammons, this statement does not make any sense, considering how much cash the Cubs actually have to spend. Perhaps the Cubs are feeding Gammons some misinformation, so that they can be the mystery team that ends up signing Fielder.
If the Cubs do get outbid on Fielder, there are not a lot of other options out there. There was some speculation that the Angels would non-tender Kendrys Morales, however recent reports say that they will tender him a contract. Angels GM Jerry Dipoto sees Morales as possible protection for Pujols, which may mean they are more likely to trade Mark Trumbo. In either case, they have at least one extra first baseman/DH, so something's got to give.
Carlos Pena could be a fallback option for the Cubs. However, he is looking for a multi-year deal and I don't think the Cubs are willing to offer more than a one year contract.
What concerns me though is a little tidbit hidden away in a Gordon Wittenmyer article from December 5, in which Theo Epstein, in his first meeting with Cubs' career minor leaguer Bryan LaHair told him that he has a chance to win at least a major share of the first base job next spring.
If that is the case, we could be in for a long winter and another long season.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Rule 5 Draft Recap: Cubs lose two position players and gain a pitcher
In an pretty tame Rule 5 draft, where only 12 players were selected in the major league phase, the Cubs lost two of their infield prospects while picking up a right handed power arm.
As predicted, the Cubs lost prospect Ryan Flaherty, who was selected 4th overall by the Orioles. According to Baseball America, he's a pretty safe bet to stick with Baltimore due to his versatility and his lefthanded bat.
The second prospects lost by the Cubs was Marwin Gonzalez, who was taken with the 23rd pick (but was only the 10th player taken, due to many teams passing) by the Red Sox. When first reported, I didn't understand this pick from the Red Sox perspective, until it was reported later that Gonzalez was traded to the Astros. On an Astros team fully in rebuilding mode, Gonzalez has a very good chance of sticking in the majors as a utility infielder.
To make up for their losses, the Cubs selected righty Lendy Castillo with the 6th overall pick. Castillo is a converted short stop who can hit 96 mph with his fastball but still needs to work on his secondary pitches. However, I don't see him making the team out of Spring Training and he will likely be offered back to his original club (the Phillies).
Overall, with the trade of DJ LeMahieu and the losses of Flaherty and Gonzalez, the Cubs minor league infield depth took a major hit today. Josh Vitters, Junior Lake and Logan Watkins are the only remaining infield prospects that made Baseball America's 2011 Top 30 Cubs Prospects list. However, the addition of Javier Baez from the 2011 draft will help offset those losses.
As predicted, the Cubs lost prospect Ryan Flaherty, who was selected 4th overall by the Orioles. According to Baseball America, he's a pretty safe bet to stick with Baltimore due to his versatility and his lefthanded bat.
The second prospects lost by the Cubs was Marwin Gonzalez, who was taken with the 23rd pick (but was only the 10th player taken, due to many teams passing) by the Red Sox. When first reported, I didn't understand this pick from the Red Sox perspective, until it was reported later that Gonzalez was traded to the Astros. On an Astros team fully in rebuilding mode, Gonzalez has a very good chance of sticking in the majors as a utility infielder.
To make up for their losses, the Cubs selected righty Lendy Castillo with the 6th overall pick. Castillo is a converted short stop who can hit 96 mph with his fastball but still needs to work on his secondary pitches. However, I don't see him making the team out of Spring Training and he will likely be offered back to his original club (the Phillies).
Overall, with the trade of DJ LeMahieu and the losses of Flaherty and Gonzalez, the Cubs minor league infield depth took a major hit today. Josh Vitters, Junior Lake and Logan Watkins are the only remaining infield prospects that made Baseball America's 2011 Top 30 Cubs Prospects list. However, the addition of Javier Baez from the 2011 draft will help offset those losses.
Winter Meetins Wrap Up: Cubs acquire Ian Stewart
Just when you thought the Cubs would leave Dallas without making a move, Troy Renck announced that the Cubs have completed a trade to acquire Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers for Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu.
On the face of it, I think this is a pretty fair trade. Both teams acquire players, in Stewart and Colvin, who are coming off of down years and might benefit from a change in scenery. In addition, while I like LeMahieu and hate to see him go, Weathers is a former first round pick (8th overall in 2007) with a plus fastball and slider who was once considered the Rockies closer of the future.
Stewart has more major league experience than Colvin, amassing 1242 at bats and a .236/.323/.428 line compared to Colvin's 581 at bats and .215/.274/.422 line. Both players strike out too much, with Colvin striking out in 28% of his at bats compared to Stewart's 32%. However, Stewart has shown a better ability to take a walk and both have similar power numbers.
LeMahieu has a career line of .317/.353/.399 in the minors and, due to a lack of power, probably projects best as a utility infielder. Weathers has struggled with command in the minors. He has a career 7.1 BB/9 in the minors and gave up 48 walks in 45.2 IP this year.
Overall, I like the trade, as the Cubs dealt away a couple spare parts for a potential starting third baseman and another bullpen arm. The Cubs still have Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt as fall back options should Stewart not pan out, plus there's always the possibility that Josh Vitters finally figures things out. In any case, its a low risk move that could pay off.
In other news, the Cubs are not players for Prince Fielder, according to Peter Gammons, because they do not have the cash. I find that a little hard to believe, unless the Cubs are saving their money for more pressing needs, such as pitching.
If Fielder is not an option, there isn't much left on the free agent market, unless the Cubs want to revisit Derek Lee or Carlos Pena. Thus, their best bet might be a trade. As one of my commentors, wilee23, pointed out, with the recent signing of Albert Pujols, the Angels might make Kendrys Morales available.
In any case, its obvious that the Cubs are taking a different approach to rebuilding the team than in years past. It may not make them a contender next year, but, if they do things right they could build a strong nucleus that they can keep under team control for several years.
On the face of it, I think this is a pretty fair trade. Both teams acquire players, in Stewart and Colvin, who are coming off of down years and might benefit from a change in scenery. In addition, while I like LeMahieu and hate to see him go, Weathers is a former first round pick (8th overall in 2007) with a plus fastball and slider who was once considered the Rockies closer of the future.
Stewart has more major league experience than Colvin, amassing 1242 at bats and a .236/.323/.428 line compared to Colvin's 581 at bats and .215/.274/.422 line. Both players strike out too much, with Colvin striking out in 28% of his at bats compared to Stewart's 32%. However, Stewart has shown a better ability to take a walk and both have similar power numbers.
LeMahieu has a career line of .317/.353/.399 in the minors and, due to a lack of power, probably projects best as a utility infielder. Weathers has struggled with command in the minors. He has a career 7.1 BB/9 in the minors and gave up 48 walks in 45.2 IP this year.
Overall, I like the trade, as the Cubs dealt away a couple spare parts for a potential starting third baseman and another bullpen arm. The Cubs still have Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt as fall back options should Stewart not pan out, plus there's always the possibility that Josh Vitters finally figures things out. In any case, its a low risk move that could pay off.
In other news, the Cubs are not players for Prince Fielder, according to Peter Gammons, because they do not have the cash. I find that a little hard to believe, unless the Cubs are saving their money for more pressing needs, such as pitching.
If Fielder is not an option, there isn't much left on the free agent market, unless the Cubs want to revisit Derek Lee or Carlos Pena. Thus, their best bet might be a trade. As one of my commentors, wilee23, pointed out, with the recent signing of Albert Pujols, the Angels might make Kendrys Morales available.
In any case, its obvious that the Cubs are taking a different approach to rebuilding the team than in years past. It may not make them a contender next year, but, if they do things right they could build a strong nucleus that they can keep under team control for several years.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Rule 5 Draft Preview
The annual Rule 5 Draft is tomorrow, here is a quick preview from the Cubs' perspective.
Unprotected Players
According to The Cub Reporter, the Cubs have 50 prospects that have been left unprotected for this year's draft. A quick glance through the list finds some interesting names, particularly former Top 10 prospects Ryan Flaherty and Jay Jackson, as well as other notables such as Dae-Eun Rhee, Rebel Ridling, Kyler Burke (former OF converted to pitcher), Michael Burgess (acquired for Tom Gorzelanny) and Ryan Searle.
Baseball America (pay site) lists Ryan Flaherty, Ryan Searle and Dae-Eun Rhee as a potential picks in this year's draft. Flaherty could be a useful utility man for some team in 2012, as he can play second, third, short and the corner outfield spots. Searle and Rhee are both pitchers with some upside who some small market team might be willing to take a chance on.
Frankly, I like Flaherty and was surprised the Cubs left him unprotected and would think he will probably be selected in the draft. However, I thought the same thing about Marquez Smith last year and he went unclaimed, so take that for what its worth.
Potential Cubs Targets
The Cubs select 6th in this year's Rule 5 Draft, but, as typical, there is not a lot of high profile talent available in this year's draft. However, here are a couple of intriguing names the Cubs may consider:
Drew Cumberland - he retired last year due to a rare medical condition, but has been cleared to play this year. He has speed and is a career .316/.380/.430 hitter in the minors. I can see him being a potential upgrade over Darwin Barney at second in the future. However, he would probably serve a utility role in 2012.
Diego Moreno - he has thrown only 194 innings in 5 minor league seasons, but has an upper-90's fastball with a good, but inconsistent slider. With a career minor league ERA of 2.41 and whip of 0.93, he could be a good addition to the Cubs pen in 2012 and a future late inning guy.
Other than that, there is not much of interest, so don't expect another Josh Hamilton or Johan Santana to fall into someone's lap.
Unprotected Players
According to The Cub Reporter, the Cubs have 50 prospects that have been left unprotected for this year's draft. A quick glance through the list finds some interesting names, particularly former Top 10 prospects Ryan Flaherty and Jay Jackson, as well as other notables such as Dae-Eun Rhee, Rebel Ridling, Kyler Burke (former OF converted to pitcher), Michael Burgess (acquired for Tom Gorzelanny) and Ryan Searle.
Baseball America (pay site) lists Ryan Flaherty, Ryan Searle and Dae-Eun Rhee as a potential picks in this year's draft. Flaherty could be a useful utility man for some team in 2012, as he can play second, third, short and the corner outfield spots. Searle and Rhee are both pitchers with some upside who some small market team might be willing to take a chance on.
Frankly, I like Flaherty and was surprised the Cubs left him unprotected and would think he will probably be selected in the draft. However, I thought the same thing about Marquez Smith last year and he went unclaimed, so take that for what its worth.
Potential Cubs Targets
The Cubs select 6th in this year's Rule 5 Draft, but, as typical, there is not a lot of high profile talent available in this year's draft. However, here are a couple of intriguing names the Cubs may consider:
Drew Cumberland - he retired last year due to a rare medical condition, but has been cleared to play this year. He has speed and is a career .316/.380/.430 hitter in the minors. I can see him being a potential upgrade over Darwin Barney at second in the future. However, he would probably serve a utility role in 2012.
Diego Moreno - he has thrown only 194 innings in 5 minor league seasons, but has an upper-90's fastball with a good, but inconsistent slider. With a career minor league ERA of 2.41 and whip of 0.93, he could be a good addition to the Cubs pen in 2012 and a future late inning guy.
Other than that, there is not much of interest, so don't expect another Josh Hamilton or Johan Santana to fall into someone's lap.
Winter Meetings Day 3: More Rumors
Things are starting to heat up on the Prince Fielder front, now that it appears Albert Pujols is down to 3 teams (the Cardinals, Angels and a mystery team). Although Jon Heyman tweeted yesterday that the Cubs' interest in Prince Fielder is sincere and Fielder is apparently interested in the Cubs, Cubs' GM Jed Hoyer told Paul Sullivan that the Cubs' pursuit of Fielder has been overblown.
Then what exactly are the Cubs up to?
Well, they are discussing a potential Ian Stewart for Tyler Colvin swap with the Rockies. With the signing of David DeJesus last week, Colvin is expendable and Stewart could potentially fill the third base hole for the Cubs.
The Cubs are also one of many potential suitors for Hiroki Kuroda, tweets Jon Heyman. I think Kuroda would be a good addition on a 1 or 2 year contract, but I wouldn't go much longer than that.
Both Danny Knobler and Bruce Levine are reporting that the Rangers are trying to pry Matt Garza away from the Cubs. However, the Cubs are said to be looking for an overwhelming offer for Garza (as they should) and its unclear if the Rangers are even in that neighborhood yet.
Kerry Wood has said that he wants to pitch for the Cubs or retire. However, the Cubs should not expect to get him for $1.5 million again, as he recently said he want a raise.
Finally, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena both have declined arbitration tweets Paul Sullivan and Jon Heyman. Thus, the Cubs will net two supplemental picks in next year's draft.
That's all for now, but stay tuned as I will be posting a Rule 5 Draft preview shortly.
Then what exactly are the Cubs up to?
Well, they are discussing a potential Ian Stewart for Tyler Colvin swap with the Rockies. With the signing of David DeJesus last week, Colvin is expendable and Stewart could potentially fill the third base hole for the Cubs.
The Cubs are also one of many potential suitors for Hiroki Kuroda, tweets Jon Heyman. I think Kuroda would be a good addition on a 1 or 2 year contract, but I wouldn't go much longer than that.
Both Danny Knobler and Bruce Levine are reporting that the Rangers are trying to pry Matt Garza away from the Cubs. However, the Cubs are said to be looking for an overwhelming offer for Garza (as they should) and its unclear if the Rangers are even in that neighborhood yet.
Kerry Wood has said that he wants to pitch for the Cubs or retire. However, the Cubs should not expect to get him for $1.5 million again, as he recently said he want a raise.
Finally, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena both have declined arbitration tweets Paul Sullivan and Jon Heyman. Thus, the Cubs will net two supplemental picks in next year's draft.
That's all for now, but stay tuned as I will be posting a Rule 5 Draft preview shortly.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Winter Meetings Day Two: On to Plan B
With the Marlins, Cardinals and the ever-present "mystery team" all offering 10 year deals to Albert Pujols, its likely that that ship has sailed for the Cubs. However, fear not, it may have all been a ploy to make the Cardinals overpay for Pujols, as Jon Heyman tweets that the Cubs are more interested in Prince Fielder.
The Mariners appear to be the frontrunners for Prince, as they are the only team to offer a longer deal at this point. Its also possible that the Marlins could get involved if they miss out on Pujols. Whatever happens though, Fielder will likely wait until Pujols sets the market before signing with a team.
Another option at first base for the Cubs could be the Marlins Gaby Sanchez, if they land Pujols, according to Paul Sullivan who believes Sanchez fits the Cubs long-term gameplan. Also, don't rule out a return of Carlos Pena, says Sullivan.
In other, more disturbing news, Carlos Zambrano has told friends that he thinks he will be back with the Cubs in 2012. If that's true, then my current over/under on games pitched before his next (and final) Cubs meltdown is 12.
Finally, with all the talk surrounding Pujols, Fielder and C.J. Wilson getting Cubs fans excited, Gordon Wittenmyer cautions that the Cubs are not looking to make a big splash this offseason. Although the Cubs met with Pujols' agent, Dan Lozano, it was because they are interested in bringing back pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to add depth. In addition, the Cubs appear more content to pursue players such as Colorado's Ian Stewart, than any of the big fish.
Thus, it appears that the Cubs may not get a big bopper like I hoped. So, unless they can improve their pitching significantly, expect another long year in 2012.
The Mariners appear to be the frontrunners for Prince, as they are the only team to offer a longer deal at this point. Its also possible that the Marlins could get involved if they miss out on Pujols. Whatever happens though, Fielder will likely wait until Pujols sets the market before signing with a team.
Another option at first base for the Cubs could be the Marlins Gaby Sanchez, if they land Pujols, according to Paul Sullivan who believes Sanchez fits the Cubs long-term gameplan. Also, don't rule out a return of Carlos Pena, says Sullivan.
In other, more disturbing news, Carlos Zambrano has told friends that he thinks he will be back with the Cubs in 2012. If that's true, then my current over/under on games pitched before his next (and final) Cubs meltdown is 12.
Finally, with all the talk surrounding Pujols, Fielder and C.J. Wilson getting Cubs fans excited, Gordon Wittenmyer cautions that the Cubs are not looking to make a big splash this offseason. Although the Cubs met with Pujols' agent, Dan Lozano, it was because they are interested in bringing back pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to add depth. In addition, the Cubs appear more content to pursue players such as Colorado's Ian Stewart, than any of the big fish.
Thus, it appears that the Cubs may not get a big bopper like I hoped. So, unless they can improve their pitching significantly, expect another long year in 2012.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Winter Meetings Day One: Cubs Aim High
With the first day of the Winter Meetings coming to a close, let's take a look at some of the Cubs' activity.
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs met with Albert Pujols' agent, Dan Lozano, today. Although Rosenthal would not characterize the nature of the talks, previous rumors have the Cubs potentially offering a shorter-term contract, but a higher annual salary than other teams.
Its a risky move for the Cubs and it will be interesting to see what's more important to Pujols. My gut feeling is that he will prefer an 8 or 9 year contract, as opposed to a potential 5 or 6 year deal that the Cubs may offer. For example, if the Cubs offer him a 6 year deal worth $25 million per year, for a total of $150 million, whereas the Cardinals offer a 9 year deal worth $200 million, Pujols will have to consider whether he will be able to make up the $50 million difference over the 3 year difference in contract years. With Pujols turning 38, a $16.7 million per year contract may be hard to come by, given normal deterioration of skills.
However, from the Cubs' standpoint, a shorter deal makes sense, given Pujols' age and the fact the Cubs have been burned in the past by long contract.
Speaking of Alfonso Soriano, Jon Heyman tweets that the Cubs have been getting a bit of interest in the overpaid outfielder. Soriano would be a good fit for an AL team, where his defense or lack thereof would not be a factor. However, as Heyman points out, the Cubs would have to eat a large part of his contract.
The Cubs are also trying to gauge the market for lefty C.J. Wilson, according to Ken Rosenthal. Wilson makes a lot of sense for the Cubs, but at the right price. I cannot see Epstein and Hoyer paying $20 million a year for Wilson, but $15 to $18 million would be more palatable. However, if the Yankees get into the bidding, Wilson price will quickly go out of the Cubs range.
Former Dodger, Hiroki Kuroda, also appears to be of interest to the Cubs, tweets Phil Rogers of the Trib. The risk here is that Kuroda will turn 37 before next season and would move from pitcher-friendly Dodger stadium to Wrigley. I wouldn't go more than 2 years/$25 million for him, but he could be a decent fallback if Wilson can't be had.
Finally, in a move that was LONG overdue, the Golden Era Committee elected Ron Santo to the Hall of Fame. I was going to write a long rant about how it is bittersweet that this happens now, in that it would have meant a lot more if it had happened while Santo was still alive, but Herb Gould beat me to it. Nonetheless, it is still a great honor and I am happy for his family.
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs met with Albert Pujols' agent, Dan Lozano, today. Although Rosenthal would not characterize the nature of the talks, previous rumors have the Cubs potentially offering a shorter-term contract, but a higher annual salary than other teams.
Its a risky move for the Cubs and it will be interesting to see what's more important to Pujols. My gut feeling is that he will prefer an 8 or 9 year contract, as opposed to a potential 5 or 6 year deal that the Cubs may offer. For example, if the Cubs offer him a 6 year deal worth $25 million per year, for a total of $150 million, whereas the Cardinals offer a 9 year deal worth $200 million, Pujols will have to consider whether he will be able to make up the $50 million difference over the 3 year difference in contract years. With Pujols turning 38, a $16.7 million per year contract may be hard to come by, given normal deterioration of skills.
However, from the Cubs' standpoint, a shorter deal makes sense, given Pujols' age and the fact the Cubs have been burned in the past by long contract.
Speaking of Alfonso Soriano, Jon Heyman tweets that the Cubs have been getting a bit of interest in the overpaid outfielder. Soriano would be a good fit for an AL team, where his defense or lack thereof would not be a factor. However, as Heyman points out, the Cubs would have to eat a large part of his contract.
The Cubs are also trying to gauge the market for lefty C.J. Wilson, according to Ken Rosenthal. Wilson makes a lot of sense for the Cubs, but at the right price. I cannot see Epstein and Hoyer paying $20 million a year for Wilson, but $15 to $18 million would be more palatable. However, if the Yankees get into the bidding, Wilson price will quickly go out of the Cubs range.
Former Dodger, Hiroki Kuroda, also appears to be of interest to the Cubs, tweets Phil Rogers of the Trib. The risk here is that Kuroda will turn 37 before next season and would move from pitcher-friendly Dodger stadium to Wrigley. I wouldn't go more than 2 years/$25 million for him, but he could be a decent fallback if Wilson can't be had.
Finally, in a move that was LONG overdue, the Golden Era Committee elected Ron Santo to the Hall of Fame. I was going to write a long rant about how it is bittersweet that this happens now, in that it would have meant a lot more if it had happened while Santo was still alive, but Herb Gould beat me to it. Nonetheless, it is still a great honor and I am happy for his family.
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