Call me an optimist. But the Carlos Beltran trade the other day had me thinking the Cubs can land a top prospect for Aramis Ramirez.
In case you missed it, the Mets traded Carlos Beltran to the Giants for Zach Wheeler, who ranked #35 on Baseball America's Top 50 midseason prospects list.
My reason for optimism: there are some similarities between Beltran and Ramirez.
First, both are having bounce-back years after a disappointing 2010 season. Beltran missed over half of 2010 and hit only .255/.341/427 when healthy. He was hitting .289/.391/.513 this year before the trade.
Ramirez hit only .241/.294/.452 last year, but has bounced back to hit .294/.334/.510 this year.
Second, both are earning about the same amount this year. Beltran is a little more expensive, with about $6 million left on his contract. Ramirez has about $5.3 million left on his contract this year and would want his option for 2012 dropped, if traded.
Third, they are the best hitters available at their respective positions. Beltran was the top outfielder on the market and Ramirez would be the best third baseman available, if he is open to a trade.
But, therein lies the problem. Ramirez has been coy about his willingness to accept a trade, especially in July. Although his agent says he would probably only accept a trade in August, Ramirez hinted yesterday that he might accept a deal in July.
And that is the biggest difference between Ramirez and Beltran. If Ramirez does not want to accept a trade in July, the Cubs would lose a lot of leverage in their efforts to trade him.
Chances are that Ramirez would be claimed by some team if the Cubs try to pass him through waivers in August. That means the Cubs would only be able to negotiate with that team. If the team claimed him only to prevent other teams from acquiring him, then the chances of a deal are nil. Even if the team that claimed him really wanted him, they still have the advantage of exclusive negotiating rights and could force the Cubs into a take-it-or-leave-it position.
Thus, if the Cubs want to acquire a top prospect, then Ramirez needs to be willing to accept a July trade. Otherwise, they will be looking at another deal for middling prospects, along the lines of last year's Derrek Lee trade.
I'm not faulting Ramirez here, as a 10 and 5 player, he has the right to reject any trades. But its up to Jim Hendry and the Cubs to convince him to accept a July trade.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Brett Jackson Watch: No promotion yet
For those of you hoping that Brett Jackson would get the call when Kosuke Fukudome was traded, you will have to keep waiting. Tyler Colvin earned the promotion and rightly so. He deserves a shot to show whether last year was a fluke or not. If he cannot cut it, then I'm sure Jackson will get the call.
As for now, Jackson has not been doing much to warrant a call-up anyway. He is hitting only .204/.298/.367 at Iowa with 21 K's in 49 AB's. For the week he went 5 for 20 (.250) with a homer and 8 K's (to only 1 walk).
Colvin hasn't exactly shown much at AAA either, hitting .256/.270/.478 with 55 K's in 203 AB's and his 130 K's in 471 major league AB's raises a red flag too.
Truth is, Colvin is probably not the long-term solution, but Jackson is not ready yet, so Colvin will get another shot. But its not too hard to imagine an outfield of Brett Jackson in right, Matthew Szczur in center and (sigh) Alfonso Soriano in left, possibly as soon as July 2012.
Here are Brett Jackson's stats through July 28:
As for now, Jackson has not been doing much to warrant a call-up anyway. He is hitting only .204/.298/.367 at Iowa with 21 K's in 49 AB's. For the week he went 5 for 20 (.250) with a homer and 8 K's (to only 1 walk).
Colvin hasn't exactly shown much at AAA either, hitting .256/.270/.478 with 55 K's in 203 AB's and his 130 K's in 471 major league AB's raises a red flag too.
Truth is, Colvin is probably not the long-term solution, but Jackson is not ready yet, so Colvin will get another shot. But its not too hard to imagine an outfield of Brett Jackson in right, Matthew Szczur in center and (sigh) Alfonso Soriano in left, possibly as soon as July 2012.
Here are Brett Jackson's stats through July 28:
| Year | Lev | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | AA-AAA | 80 | 295 | 50 | 73 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 35 | 17 | 52 | 95 | .247 | .361 | .431 | .791 |
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Its Official: Cubs trade Kosuke Fukudome to Indians for two prospects
Updating an earlier post, the Cubs have traded outfielder Kosuke Fukudome (and about $3.9 million) to the Indians for prospects Abner Abreu and Carlton Smith.
It appears that the Cubs agreed to chip in a significant portion of Fukudome's contract (the Indians will pay only about $800K), in order to get back better prospects in return. However, even an $800,000 Fukudome couldn't garner a top prospect.
Abner Abreu was ranked #23 on Baseball America Top 30 Indians prospects prior to the 2010 season, but dropped off the list this year. He was hitting just .244/.294/.429 at High A Kingston, but shows an interesting combo of power (12 homers) and speed (19 steals). His weakness is his ability to make consistent contact (102 K's in 336 AB).
Carlton Smith was a 21st round pick in the 2004 draft. Although drafted as a starter, he was converted to the pen in 2009 and has posted mixed results since. This year, he has a 4.50 ERA in 46 IP with a 46/20 K/BB ratio. He profiles as a middle reliever, at best.
Overall, I like this trade for two reasons: First, the Cubs have added some minor league depth. Somthing they have lacked ever since the Matt Garza trade. Second, this allows the Cubs to call up Tyler Colvin and give him the chance to re-establish himself in the majors (the Cubs recalled Colvin prior to today's game).
Sure, Abreu and Smith may never amount to much, but if Colvin can find his groove and become one of the core players the Cubs build around going forward, the Cubs will be better off in the end.
It appears that the Cubs agreed to chip in a significant portion of Fukudome's contract (the Indians will pay only about $800K), in order to get back better prospects in return. However, even an $800,000 Fukudome couldn't garner a top prospect.
Abner Abreu was ranked #23 on Baseball America Top 30 Indians prospects prior to the 2010 season, but dropped off the list this year. He was hitting just .244/.294/.429 at High A Kingston, but shows an interesting combo of power (12 homers) and speed (19 steals). His weakness is his ability to make consistent contact (102 K's in 336 AB).
Carlton Smith was a 21st round pick in the 2004 draft. Although drafted as a starter, he was converted to the pen in 2009 and has posted mixed results since. This year, he has a 4.50 ERA in 46 IP with a 46/20 K/BB ratio. He profiles as a middle reliever, at best.
Overall, I like this trade for two reasons: First, the Cubs have added some minor league depth. Somthing they have lacked ever since the Matt Garza trade. Second, this allows the Cubs to call up Tyler Colvin and give him the chance to re-establish himself in the majors (the Cubs recalled Colvin prior to today's game).
Sure, Abreu and Smith may never amount to much, but if Colvin can find his groove and become one of the core players the Cubs build around going forward, the Cubs will be better off in the end.
Indians desperately need Kosuke Fukudome?
Perhaps there is a God after all (or at least one who doesn't hate the Cubs).
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Indians are in "serious talks" to acquire Cubs outfielder Kosuke Fukudome and Buster Olney is reporting that the Cubs could get two prospects for him, with the Cubs picking up more than half of the $4.7 million remaining on his contract.
At this point, I would take whatever I could get for Fukudome. Sure he gets on base, but that's about the extent of his skills. Ship him off and let's see if Tyler Colvin gain regain his 2010 form.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Indians are in "serious talks" to acquire Cubs outfielder Kosuke Fukudome and Buster Olney is reporting that the Cubs could get two prospects for him, with the Cubs picking up more than half of the $4.7 million remaining on his contract.
At this point, I would take whatever I could get for Fukudome. Sure he gets on base, but that's about the extent of his skills. Ship him off and let's see if Tyler Colvin gain regain his 2010 form.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Cubs stuck in a waiting game
The Cubs are desperate to move their high priced players. I already discussed how the Cubs would pay a large portion of Alfonso Soriano's contract to trade him. Now, rumor has it, the Cubs called the Yankees trying to convince them to take Carlos Zambrano off their hands. The Yankees were not interested.
The problem is that, although the Cubs are desperate to move Zambrano and Soriano, there are no teams desperate enough to acquire them. At least, not yet.
That could change as we get closer to the deadline. We've already seen the Mets trade Carlos Beltran, and the Cardinals traded Colby Rasmus in what amounted to a three team deal to acquire Edwin Jackson.
With every move, the available quantity and quality of talent decreases until eventually Zambrano and Soriano could end up as the best players available. Although it may be unlikely that we reach that point, especially before the trade dealine, the Cubs do know that a deal doesn't have to be made before July 31st, as its unlikely either player will be claimed on waivers.
In the meantime, Jim Hendry can try to trade his more movable pieces, such as Carlos Pena or Jeff Baker, and hope that a team eventually becomes desperate enough to take Zambrano or Soriano of his hands.
The problem is that, although the Cubs are desperate to move Zambrano and Soriano, there are no teams desperate enough to acquire them. At least, not yet.
That could change as we get closer to the deadline. We've already seen the Mets trade Carlos Beltran, and the Cardinals traded Colby Rasmus in what amounted to a three team deal to acquire Edwin Jackson.
With every move, the available quantity and quality of talent decreases until eventually Zambrano and Soriano could end up as the best players available. Although it may be unlikely that we reach that point, especially before the trade dealine, the Cubs do know that a deal doesn't have to be made before July 31st, as its unlikely either player will be claimed on waivers.
In the meantime, Jim Hendry can try to trade his more movable pieces, such as Carlos Pena or Jeff Baker, and hope that a team eventually becomes desperate enough to take Zambrano or Soriano of his hands.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
What can the Cubs realistically expect in return for Carlos Pena?
Yesterday, SI's Jon Heyman tweeted that Carlos Pena "will almost surely be moved". Indications are the Arizona (per Heyman) and Pittsburgh (per Bob Biertempfel) could be potential suitors.
One benefit of trading Pena is salary relief. As Tim Dierkes of MLBtraderumors.com notes, due to Pena's unique contract, the Cubs could save 2/3rds of his $10 million by trading him now (i.e. 1/3rd of this season's $5 million salary and all of the $5 million deferred to 2012).
However, the Cubs should not be all about saving money at this point. They need to beef up their farm system and, in particular, their minor league starting pitching depth. Thus, if the Cubs need to agree to pay the $5 million of deferred salary to get a better prospect, I would be OK with that.
Of the two suitors for Pena, Pittsburgh might make the most sense. Of their Top 10 prospects, as determined by Baseball America, 7 are pitchers, so they have some pitching depth. With the success of the major league starters this season, Pittsburgh may be willing to part with one of their pitching prospects to beef up their offense.
So, who could the Cubs realistically get in return for Pena?
Well, I would rule out the Pirates top 3 pitching prospects (Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and Luis Heredia), right off the bat, as there is no way the Pirates would give up any of them for a two-month rental. However, there are a couple pitching prospects in the Pirates Top 10 that I think the Cubs could have a shot at getting: Rudy Owens or Jeff Locke.
After a strong 2010 season in AA (2.46 ERA and 132 K's in 150 IP), Owens has struggled somewhat in his first year at AAA (4.63 ERA and only 63 K's in 103 IP). Ranked as the Pirates #7 prospect by Baseball America, Owens' fastball sits in the low 90's and he projects as a mid-rotation starter, at best.
Locke has also been less than stellar this year, with a 4.44 ERA in 107.1 IP. His 98 strikeouts look nice (8.2 K/9), but he doesn't seem to miss enough bats (104 hits allowed).
If the Pirates have soured on either one of them, the Cubs could probably get one of those two for Pena. If not, then they may have to turn to the Diamondbacks and try to fill another need. His fastball also sits in the low 90's and he projects as a number 4 starter.
Unlike the Pirates, the Diamondbacks' strength appears to be corner infielders. Arizona had two third basemen (Matt Davidson #3 and Bobby Borchering #7) amongst their Top 10 prospects prior to the season. In addition, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has rocketed up the prospect charts with a strong showing at AA and may have surpassed the D'backs other first base prospect, Brandon Allen, as their first baseman of the future.
If Arizona trades from their strength, then I could see the Cubs possibly getting Brandon Allen or Bobby Borchering (or Davidson--whoever they value less) from them in return for Pena. This would allow the Cubs to let Aramis Ramirez walk or possibly forgo the Albert Pujols/Prince Fielder sweepstakes this offseason and focus their extra dollars on pitching (i.e. where they really need it).
I think that, if the Cubs could get what I suggested from either the Pirates or Diamondbacks, it would help the team in the long run. The problem is, I have a hard time believing, given his contract status and all, that Jim Hendry is looking past 2012.
One benefit of trading Pena is salary relief. As Tim Dierkes of MLBtraderumors.com notes, due to Pena's unique contract, the Cubs could save 2/3rds of his $10 million by trading him now (i.e. 1/3rd of this season's $5 million salary and all of the $5 million deferred to 2012).
However, the Cubs should not be all about saving money at this point. They need to beef up their farm system and, in particular, their minor league starting pitching depth. Thus, if the Cubs need to agree to pay the $5 million of deferred salary to get a better prospect, I would be OK with that.
Of the two suitors for Pena, Pittsburgh might make the most sense. Of their Top 10 prospects, as determined by Baseball America, 7 are pitchers, so they have some pitching depth. With the success of the major league starters this season, Pittsburgh may be willing to part with one of their pitching prospects to beef up their offense.
So, who could the Cubs realistically get in return for Pena?
Well, I would rule out the Pirates top 3 pitching prospects (Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and Luis Heredia), right off the bat, as there is no way the Pirates would give up any of them for a two-month rental. However, there are a couple pitching prospects in the Pirates Top 10 that I think the Cubs could have a shot at getting: Rudy Owens or Jeff Locke.
After a strong 2010 season in AA (2.46 ERA and 132 K's in 150 IP), Owens has struggled somewhat in his first year at AAA (4.63 ERA and only 63 K's in 103 IP). Ranked as the Pirates #7 prospect by Baseball America, Owens' fastball sits in the low 90's and he projects as a mid-rotation starter, at best.
Locke has also been less than stellar this year, with a 4.44 ERA in 107.1 IP. His 98 strikeouts look nice (8.2 K/9), but he doesn't seem to miss enough bats (104 hits allowed).
If the Pirates have soured on either one of them, the Cubs could probably get one of those two for Pena. If not, then they may have to turn to the Diamondbacks and try to fill another need. His fastball also sits in the low 90's and he projects as a number 4 starter.
Unlike the Pirates, the Diamondbacks' strength appears to be corner infielders. Arizona had two third basemen (Matt Davidson #3 and Bobby Borchering #7) amongst their Top 10 prospects prior to the season. In addition, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has rocketed up the prospect charts with a strong showing at AA and may have surpassed the D'backs other first base prospect, Brandon Allen, as their first baseman of the future.
If Arizona trades from their strength, then I could see the Cubs possibly getting Brandon Allen or Bobby Borchering (or Davidson--whoever they value less) from them in return for Pena. This would allow the Cubs to let Aramis Ramirez walk or possibly forgo the Albert Pujols/Prince Fielder sweepstakes this offseason and focus their extra dollars on pitching (i.e. where they really need it).
I think that, if the Cubs could get what I suggested from either the Pirates or Diamondbacks, it would help the team in the long run. The problem is, I have a hard time believing, given his contract status and all, that Jim Hendry is looking past 2012.
Monday, July 25, 2011
When is the best time to trade a player like Alfonso Soriano?
Last week Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago wrote that the Cubs may be willing to pay a high percentage of Alfonso Soriano's salary in order to facilitate a trade. Obviously, the Cubs are trying to cut their losses here and shed some salary. But it got me thinking, when is the best time to trade a player like Soriano? That is, when you've got a bad contract, when is it best to try to dump that player?
As I see it, there's probably three scenarios where it makes sense to trade a player like Soriano:
1. When that player is blocking a promising prospect.
If you have a prospect who can replace the bad contract player (we'll call him the "BCP") and give your team the same production (at a fraction of the cost), then it would make sense to move that player and eat a large part of the contract. Basically, if you could move the BCP and save over $414K of salary (the major league minimum), then you should probably do so.
Using Soriano as an example, say the Cubs find a trade partner who would take Soriano, if the Cubs paid 75% of his salary ($13.5 million). If the Cubs had an outfield prospect who could take over for Soriano and produce at the same level, then it would make sense, as you would be saving about $4.0 million a year and getting the same production.
However, the Cubs best outfield prospect, Brett Jackson, has hit only .256/.373/.443 in a half a season at AA Tennessee. That equates to a .206/.300/.342 line, using the Major League Equivalency calculator and that's not going to cut it.
2. You can get a better free agent for less
If you can get a free agent that can outproduce the BCP, then it would make sense as well, if the combined cost of the free agent plus the cost of the BCP's salary you have to pick up is the than the BCP's total salary. For example, if you can trade the BCP and save $4.5 million and then turn around and acquire a free agent for $4 million, who can produce better than the BCP, then it would make sense to trade the BCP.
For the Cubs, Ryan Ludwick and Josh Willingham are two free agents who have similar WAR to that of Soriano (at least in recent years). Ludwick made $6.775 million this year and Willingham made $6.0 million. Chances are they would make around that amount (or a little more) on the open market.
Thus, for this to work, the Cubs would probably have to find a team to take Soriano off their hands, with the Cubs paying only around $12 million (or less) of his contract. That may be hard to do, as other teams may not be willing to pay Soriano $6 million a year for the next three years at this stage in his career.
3. When things can only get worse
If you've got a BCP who is 29 years old, you may hold out hope that they will bounce back and resuscitate their career. However, when you have a player on the wrong side of 35, who's production will likely continue to decline, its probably best to cut your losses and move on.
This probably won't work for most small market teams, as they probably wouldn't want to be stuck paying a large chunk of a BCP's contract. Then again, most small market teams wouldn't pay a player $18 million a year, unless you're the Nationals (how's that working out for ya).
At age 35, Soriano's production is only going to get worse over the next few years. Willingham (32) and Ludwick (33) are both younger than Soriano and more likely to sustain their production over the next few years. If you sign either one of them to a 3 year, $21 million deal, chances are you are going to come out ahead.
This is the main reason Jim Hendry is looking to move Soriano now (and he may not get another chance).
As I see it, there's probably three scenarios where it makes sense to trade a player like Soriano:
1. When that player is blocking a promising prospect.
If you have a prospect who can replace the bad contract player (we'll call him the "BCP") and give your team the same production (at a fraction of the cost), then it would make sense to move that player and eat a large part of the contract. Basically, if you could move the BCP and save over $414K of salary (the major league minimum), then you should probably do so.
Using Soriano as an example, say the Cubs find a trade partner who would take Soriano, if the Cubs paid 75% of his salary ($13.5 million). If the Cubs had an outfield prospect who could take over for Soriano and produce at the same level, then it would make sense, as you would be saving about $4.0 million a year and getting the same production.
However, the Cubs best outfield prospect, Brett Jackson, has hit only .256/.373/.443 in a half a season at AA Tennessee. That equates to a .206/.300/.342 line, using the Major League Equivalency calculator and that's not going to cut it.
2. You can get a better free agent for less
If you can get a free agent that can outproduce the BCP, then it would make sense as well, if the combined cost of the free agent plus the cost of the BCP's salary you have to pick up is the than the BCP's total salary. For example, if you can trade the BCP and save $4.5 million and then turn around and acquire a free agent for $4 million, who can produce better than the BCP, then it would make sense to trade the BCP.
For the Cubs, Ryan Ludwick and Josh Willingham are two free agents who have similar WAR to that of Soriano (at least in recent years). Ludwick made $6.775 million this year and Willingham made $6.0 million. Chances are they would make around that amount (or a little more) on the open market.
Thus, for this to work, the Cubs would probably have to find a team to take Soriano off their hands, with the Cubs paying only around $12 million (or less) of his contract. That may be hard to do, as other teams may not be willing to pay Soriano $6 million a year for the next three years at this stage in his career.
3. When things can only get worse
If you've got a BCP who is 29 years old, you may hold out hope that they will bounce back and resuscitate their career. However, when you have a player on the wrong side of 35, who's production will likely continue to decline, its probably best to cut your losses and move on.
This probably won't work for most small market teams, as they probably wouldn't want to be stuck paying a large chunk of a BCP's contract. Then again, most small market teams wouldn't pay a player $18 million a year, unless you're the Nationals (how's that working out for ya).
At age 35, Soriano's production is only going to get worse over the next few years. Willingham (32) and Ludwick (33) are both younger than Soriano and more likely to sustain their production over the next few years. If you sign either one of them to a 3 year, $21 million deal, chances are you are going to come out ahead.
This is the main reason Jim Hendry is looking to move Soriano now (and he may not get another chance).
Minor League Monday: Cubs mid-season minor league all-stars
As a follow-up to last week's Cubs mid-season top 10 prospect list, this week I decided to choose my mid-season minor league all-star team. As opposed to last week's list, which looks at performance and upside, this all-star team is decided purely on who has the best stats this year at their respective position.
So, without further ado, here are your 2011 All-Stars:
CATCHER - Welington Castillo, Iowa(.304/.370/.557)
Castillo has hit 16 homers between class A Daytona and Iowa. Could he be the Cubs catcher of the future?
Honorable Mention: Steve Clevenger, Iowa/Tennessee (.309/.368/.481)
FIRST BASE - Bryan LaHair, Iowa (.338/.415/.671)
In addition to his ridiculous slash line, LaHair has posted 28 homers in just 331 AB's at Iowa. At 28, he's a little old to be a prospect, but a Carlos Pena trade could give him a shot to prove he's not a 4-A guy.
Honorable Mention: Richard Jones, Peoria (.304/.353/.541)
SECOND BASE - D.J. LeMahieu, Iowa/Tennessee (.348/.378/.462)
LeMahieu has split his time this year between third (41 games) and second (38 games), but he played mostly at second during his brief stint in the majors, which is why I put him here. However, he would be an all-star at either position.
Honorable Mention: Logan Watkins, Daytona (.288/.375/.405)
THIRD BASE - Greg Rohan, Daytona/Peoria (.317/.370/.436)
Third is a pretty weak position for the Cubs, so Rohan takes the prize. He hasn't shown much power this year (just 5 HR's), but has hit for a good average and gets on base at a good clip.
Honorable Mention: Marquez Smith, Iowa (.283/.353/.448)
SHORT STOP - Marwin Gonzalez, Iowa/Tennessee (.314/.365/.446)
With Starlin Castro in the majors and Hak-Ju Lee now with Tampa, Gonzalez may be the Cubs top short stop prospect. But that's not saying much.
Honorable Mention: Junior Lake, Tennessee/Daytona (.276/.307/.433)
OUTFIELD - Evan Crawford, Daytona (.333/.393/.436); Matt Szczur, Daytona/Peoria (.300/.348/.415); Brad Snyder, Iowa (.306/.349/.506)
While Crawford's season stats looks nice, he's old for class A (23). Snyder has been at AAA for the last 5 years, so he should have it mastered by now. Szczur is the one to watch here.
Honorable Mention: Jae-Hoon Ha (.270/.308/.425)
STARTING PITCHERS - Robert Whitenack, Tennessee/Daytona (7-0, 1.93 ERA); Nicholas Struck, Iowa/Tennessee/Daytona (8-6, 3.25 ERA); Austin Kirk, Peoria (5-7, 3.63 ERA); Zach Rosscup, Daytona (4-2, 2.54 ERA); and Aaron Kurcz, Daytona (4-4, 3.53 ERA).
Whitenack is lost for the rest of the season due to Tommy John surgery. Struck has advanced quickly and has held his own in the notoriously hitter friendly PCL. Kirk and Rosscup may not wow you with their stuff, but they get outs. Kurcz has split his time between starting (12 games) and relieving (10 games) and has a 3.72 ERA as a starter.
Honorable Mention: Chris Rusin, Iowa/Tennessee (4-2, 3.96 ERA)
RELIEVERS - Frank Batista, Daytona (2.05 ERA, 19 saves); Jeff Beliveau, Tennessee/Daytona (1.29 ERA, 3 saves)
Right hander Batista leads all Cubs minor leaguers with 19 saves.
Lefty Beliveau has been dominant, striking out 70 in 55.2 IP (11.3 K/9).
Honorable Mention: Scott Maine, Iowa (3.67 ERA, 9 saves)
So, without further ado, here are your 2011 All-Stars:
CATCHER - Welington Castillo, Iowa(.304/.370/.557)
Castillo has hit 16 homers between class A Daytona and Iowa. Could he be the Cubs catcher of the future?
Honorable Mention: Steve Clevenger, Iowa/Tennessee (.309/.368/.481)
FIRST BASE - Bryan LaHair, Iowa (.338/.415/.671)
In addition to his ridiculous slash line, LaHair has posted 28 homers in just 331 AB's at Iowa. At 28, he's a little old to be a prospect, but a Carlos Pena trade could give him a shot to prove he's not a 4-A guy.
Honorable Mention: Richard Jones, Peoria (.304/.353/.541)
SECOND BASE - D.J. LeMahieu, Iowa/Tennessee (.348/.378/.462)
LeMahieu has split his time this year between third (41 games) and second (38 games), but he played mostly at second during his brief stint in the majors, which is why I put him here. However, he would be an all-star at either position.
Honorable Mention: Logan Watkins, Daytona (.288/.375/.405)
THIRD BASE - Greg Rohan, Daytona/Peoria (.317/.370/.436)
Third is a pretty weak position for the Cubs, so Rohan takes the prize. He hasn't shown much power this year (just 5 HR's), but has hit for a good average and gets on base at a good clip.
Honorable Mention: Marquez Smith, Iowa (.283/.353/.448)
SHORT STOP - Marwin Gonzalez, Iowa/Tennessee (.314/.365/.446)
With Starlin Castro in the majors and Hak-Ju Lee now with Tampa, Gonzalez may be the Cubs top short stop prospect. But that's not saying much.
Honorable Mention: Junior Lake, Tennessee/Daytona (.276/.307/.433)
OUTFIELD - Evan Crawford, Daytona (.333/.393/.436); Matt Szczur, Daytona/Peoria (.300/.348/.415); Brad Snyder, Iowa (.306/.349/.506)
While Crawford's season stats looks nice, he's old for class A (23). Snyder has been at AAA for the last 5 years, so he should have it mastered by now. Szczur is the one to watch here.
Honorable Mention: Jae-Hoon Ha (.270/.308/.425)
STARTING PITCHERS - Robert Whitenack, Tennessee/Daytona (7-0, 1.93 ERA); Nicholas Struck, Iowa/Tennessee/Daytona (8-6, 3.25 ERA); Austin Kirk, Peoria (5-7, 3.63 ERA); Zach Rosscup, Daytona (4-2, 2.54 ERA); and Aaron Kurcz, Daytona (4-4, 3.53 ERA).
Whitenack is lost for the rest of the season due to Tommy John surgery. Struck has advanced quickly and has held his own in the notoriously hitter friendly PCL. Kirk and Rosscup may not wow you with their stuff, but they get outs. Kurcz has split his time between starting (12 games) and relieving (10 games) and has a 3.72 ERA as a starter.
Honorable Mention: Chris Rusin, Iowa/Tennessee (4-2, 3.96 ERA)
RELIEVERS - Frank Batista, Daytona (2.05 ERA, 19 saves); Jeff Beliveau, Tennessee/Daytona (1.29 ERA, 3 saves)
Right hander Batista leads all Cubs minor leaguers with 19 saves.
Lefty Beliveau has been dominant, striking out 70 in 55.2 IP (11.3 K/9).
Honorable Mention: Scott Maine, Iowa (3.67 ERA, 9 saves)
Friday, July 22, 2011
Brett Jackson Watch: Adjusting to the new league
After being promoted to Iowa last week, Brett Jackson appears to be having some difficulty adjusting to the new league.
Over the last week he has gone just 4 for 24 (.167) with 11 K's. The good news is that he has drawn 6 walks during that time, giving him a .333 OBP.
I wouldn't worry too much about it, every player goes through an adjustment period when reaching a new level. However, this is just another example of why we need to be patient with Jackson and not try to advance him too quickly.
Here are his combined stats between Tennessee and Iowa through July 21st:
Over the last week he has gone just 4 for 24 (.167) with 11 K's. The good news is that he has drawn 6 walks during that time, giving him a .333 OBP.
I wouldn't worry too much about it, every player goes through an adjustment period when reaching a new level. However, this is just another example of why we need to be patient with Jackson and not try to advance him too quickly.
Here are his combined stats between Tennessee and Iowa through July 21st:
| Year | Lev | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | AA-AAA | 75 | 275 | 49 | 68 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 16 | 51 | 87 | .247 | .367 | .433 | .799 |
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
How did last year's fire sale turn out for the Cubs?
With the Cubs selling again this year, here's a look at last year's deadline (and waiver) deals and how they have turned out (so far).
July 31, 2010 - Cubs trade Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot to the Dodgers for Blake DeWitt, Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit
Both Lilly and Theriot were set to become free agents after the 2010 season, with Lilly projected to be a Type A free agent. Thus, the Cubs could have received a compensation pick for Lilly in this year's draft, if they had kept him an offered him arbitration. Of course, if Lilly accepted arbitration, the Cubs would have been stuck.
Blake DeWitt - DeWitt was labeled as the Cubs starting second baseman after the acquisition, but split time with Darwin Barney at the end of 2010 before Barney beat him out for the job this Spring. DeWitt has been an adequate bench player but becomes arbitration eligible after this season and is a potential non-tender candidate.
Brett Wallach - Wallach was thought to be the better of the two prospects the Cubs received in the trade. But, after posting a 5.76 ERA in 7 starts with Peoria down the stretch last year, Wallach did not appear in Baseball America's list of the Cubs Top 30 prospects this preseason. Wallach has continued to struggle with a 5.71 ERA at Daytona this year.
Kyle Smit - After being acquired by the Cubs, Smit pitched well as a reliever for Tennessee with a 1.96 ERA in 18.1 IP. He was ranked as the Cubs 20th best prospect by Baseball America. He has struggled this year with a 6.34 ERA thus far, but still remains on the prospect radar.
Overall not a great haul for a quality pitcher and a decent middle infielder. It would be nice to have Lilly on this year's team, with our rotation issues. However, this trade was mostly a salary dump and it did free up a spot for Barney, who is a Theriot-type of hitter at a fraction of the cost.
August 11, 2010 - Cubs trade Mike Fontenot to the Giants for Evan Crawford
A "Super Two" player, Fontenot would have been headed for his second year of arbitration this past offseason, if the Cubs had kept him (he ended up getting a $1.05 million contract from the Giants). With all their infield prospects and the acquisition of DeWitt, Fontenot was expendable and anything the Cubs got in return would be gravy.
Evan Crawford - although he doesn't appear on any prospect lists, Crawford has been a good get for the Cubs. He is currently hitting .333/.393/.436 for Daytona and has shown off his speed with 23 steals in 28 attempts. Primarily a center fielder, he can play all 3 outfield positions and could become a 4th or 5th outfielder for the Cubs.
Overall I would rate this as a win for the Cubs. They traded a redundant player for a decent prospect and saved some money in the process.
August 18, 2010 - Cubs trade Derrek Lee to Braves for Robinson Lopez, Ty'relle Harris and Jeffrey Lorick
This was the first of the Cubs two waiver deals. After turning down a potential trade to the Angels in July, Lee finally agreed to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Braves.
Robinson Lopez - Lopez was the top prospect in this deal and ranked 19th on Baseball America's list of Cubs top prospects. He too has struggled this year, with a 5.60 ERA at Peoria. However, he is only 20 years old and can hit 97 mph.
Ty'relle Harris - Another reliever, Harris posted a 5.40 ERA in 11.2 IP with Tennessee after the acquisition. He has fared even better this year, with a 2.10 ERA at Tennessee earning him a promotion to Iowa. He has struggled with command (28 walks in 37.1 IP this year), but could still be a useful part of the Cubs pen.
Jeffrey Lorick - Lorick has posted average numbers for Daytona this year (4.57 ERA and just 54 K's in 88.2 IP). He has been used primarily as a starter by the Cubs, but had better success out of the pen while in the Braves organization and that may be where his future lies.
Again, another salary dump for the Cubs who got a couple decent prospects in return. As they say, you can never have too much pitching.
July 31, 2010 - Cubs trade Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot to the Dodgers for Blake DeWitt, Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit
Both Lilly and Theriot were set to become free agents after the 2010 season, with Lilly projected to be a Type A free agent. Thus, the Cubs could have received a compensation pick for Lilly in this year's draft, if they had kept him an offered him arbitration. Of course, if Lilly accepted arbitration, the Cubs would have been stuck.
Blake DeWitt - DeWitt was labeled as the Cubs starting second baseman after the acquisition, but split time with Darwin Barney at the end of 2010 before Barney beat him out for the job this Spring. DeWitt has been an adequate bench player but becomes arbitration eligible after this season and is a potential non-tender candidate.
Brett Wallach - Wallach was thought to be the better of the two prospects the Cubs received in the trade. But, after posting a 5.76 ERA in 7 starts with Peoria down the stretch last year, Wallach did not appear in Baseball America's list of the Cubs Top 30 prospects this preseason. Wallach has continued to struggle with a 5.71 ERA at Daytona this year.
Kyle Smit - After being acquired by the Cubs, Smit pitched well as a reliever for Tennessee with a 1.96 ERA in 18.1 IP. He was ranked as the Cubs 20th best prospect by Baseball America. He has struggled this year with a 6.34 ERA thus far, but still remains on the prospect radar.
Overall not a great haul for a quality pitcher and a decent middle infielder. It would be nice to have Lilly on this year's team, with our rotation issues. However, this trade was mostly a salary dump and it did free up a spot for Barney, who is a Theriot-type of hitter at a fraction of the cost.
August 11, 2010 - Cubs trade Mike Fontenot to the Giants for Evan Crawford
A "Super Two" player, Fontenot would have been headed for his second year of arbitration this past offseason, if the Cubs had kept him (he ended up getting a $1.05 million contract from the Giants). With all their infield prospects and the acquisition of DeWitt, Fontenot was expendable and anything the Cubs got in return would be gravy.
Evan Crawford - although he doesn't appear on any prospect lists, Crawford has been a good get for the Cubs. He is currently hitting .333/.393/.436 for Daytona and has shown off his speed with 23 steals in 28 attempts. Primarily a center fielder, he can play all 3 outfield positions and could become a 4th or 5th outfielder for the Cubs.
Overall I would rate this as a win for the Cubs. They traded a redundant player for a decent prospect and saved some money in the process.
August 18, 2010 - Cubs trade Derrek Lee to Braves for Robinson Lopez, Ty'relle Harris and Jeffrey Lorick
This was the first of the Cubs two waiver deals. After turning down a potential trade to the Angels in July, Lee finally agreed to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Braves.
Robinson Lopez - Lopez was the top prospect in this deal and ranked 19th on Baseball America's list of Cubs top prospects. He too has struggled this year, with a 5.60 ERA at Peoria. However, he is only 20 years old and can hit 97 mph.
Ty'relle Harris - Another reliever, Harris posted a 5.40 ERA in 11.2 IP with Tennessee after the acquisition. He has fared even better this year, with a 2.10 ERA at Tennessee earning him a promotion to Iowa. He has struggled with command (28 walks in 37.1 IP this year), but could still be a useful part of the Cubs pen.
Jeffrey Lorick - Lorick has posted average numbers for Daytona this year (4.57 ERA and just 54 K's in 88.2 IP). He has been used primarily as a starter by the Cubs, but had better success out of the pen while in the Braves organization and that may be where his future lies.
Again, another salary dump for the Cubs who got a couple decent prospects in return. As they say, you can never have too much pitching.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Will Aramis Ramirez stay or will he go?
Despite Aramis Ramirez' agent, Paul Kinzer, saying that Ramirez won't give up his no-trade clause, rumors continue to swirl around the Cubs third baseman. (Of course, when you're hitting .345/.387/.782 with 7 homers in the month of July, that's bound to happen).
The team with the most interest appears to be the Angels as Nick Cafardo and Ken Rosenthal have both reported.
Ramirez reiterated again this week that "Right now I'm not interested in a trade". The key words being "right now". We saw Derrek Lee go through this last year and eventually get traded (in August).
The biggest issue for Ramirez appears to be his family and being away from them for an extended period of time (if he were traded). As a family man, I can understand that. However, weighing against that is the chance to go to a contender and possibly play in the World Series.
Chances are that, as we get closer to the end of the season, Ramirez' stance may change and an August trade is a possibility. The problem is, unlike Derrek Lee last year, its unlikely that Ramirez will clear waivers in August and the Cubs may lose some leverage as a result.
It will be an interesting situation to watch going forward, as Ramirez is now the Cubs' biggest trade chip and the one player who can garner them some top prospects in a trade.
The team with the most interest appears to be the Angels as Nick Cafardo and Ken Rosenthal have both reported.
Ramirez reiterated again this week that "Right now I'm not interested in a trade". The key words being "right now". We saw Derrek Lee go through this last year and eventually get traded (in August).
The biggest issue for Ramirez appears to be his family and being away from them for an extended period of time (if he were traded). As a family man, I can understand that. However, weighing against that is the chance to go to a contender and possibly play in the World Series.
Chances are that, as we get closer to the end of the season, Ramirez' stance may change and an August trade is a possibility. The problem is, unlike Derrek Lee last year, its unlikely that Ramirez will clear waivers in August and the Cubs may lose some leverage as a result.
It will be an interesting situation to watch going forward, as Ramirez is now the Cubs' biggest trade chip and the one player who can garner them some top prospects in a trade.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Minor League Monday: Cubs Mid-season Top 10 Prospects
With Baseball America releasing its Midseason Top 50 Prospects on July 7th (Brett Jackson was ranked 32nd and Matt Szczur was ranked 48th), I thought it was time to update the Cubs Top 10 prospects. For those of you who may have missed it, in the pre-season I put together my own Top 10 list as well as a composite Top 10 list.
This list will give you an idea on who's rising and who's falling (based primarily on their 2011 performances):
Risers - Matt Szczur, Ryan Flaherty, D.J. LeMahieu, Robert Whitenack, Welington Castillo, Nicholas Struck, Austin Kirk
Fallers - Hayden Simpson, Christopher Carpenter, Jay Jackson, Rafael Dolis
This list will give you an idea on who's rising and who's falling (based primarily on their 2011 performances):
- Brett Jackson - He didn't hit for a high average in his half season at AA Tennessee, but he still earned a promotion to AAA Iowa. He will probably get a September callup to Chicago and will battle for the center field job next Spring.
- Matthew Szczur - after signing a baseball only contract prior to the season, Szczur has proved to everyone that he made the right choice. He is the fastest riser amongst the Cubs prospects, ranking 10th on the preseason composite list.
- Javier Baez - the Cubs top pick in the 2011 draft has yet to sign, but the Cubs will do everything in their power to get him into the fold before the August 15th deadline. He has a quick bat, but scouts do not like his makeup. He could be the next Alex Rodriguez or the next Milton Bradley.
- Trey McNutt - blister issues have hampered him this year and his 4.80 ERA is nothing to write home about. But he is still the Cubs top pitching prospect.
- Ryan Flaherty - another riser, Flaherty has shown more power this year, with 15 homers in 317 AB's. He is on pace to more than double last year's output and his .305/.384/.523 line at Tennessee recently earned him a promotion to Iowa. He could be an option at third for the Cubs next year.
- D.J. LeMahieu - the Cubs best pure hitter earned a cup of coffee with the Cubs when Darwin Barney was on the DL. He is hitting .353/.381/.462 between Tennessee and Iowa and could also be an integral part of the Cubs plans for the future.
- Jae-Hoon Ha - he may not have any plus skills, but Ha seems to do everything at least above average. He has some pop, runs the bases well (despite average speed) and has a strong arm (as a former catcher). He was recently promoted to Tennessee after hitting .276/.311/.422 at Daytona.
- Robert Whitenack - Whitenack was well on his way to having a breakout season between Daytona and Tennessee before Tommy John surgery cut his season short. His season ended with a 7-0 record and 1.93 ERA, making him the highest rising pitcher. Its a shame that we will have to wait at least a year before seeing him pitch again.
- Josh Vitters - although he has bounced back from a sub-par 2010 season to hit for a decent average this year (.281 in 83 games), Vitters has apparently been passed up by both Ryan Flaherty and D. J. LeMahieu on the organization's depth chart. His stock is slipping and he is at risk of dropping out of the Cubs top 10 for the first time since being drafted.
- Welington Castillo - although he has split the catching duties at AAA Iowa with fellow prospect Chris Robinson, Castillo has hit well with a .301/.361/.534 line in 176 AB's. He has the best arm and release of the Cubs catching prospect, throwing out 37% of base stealers in his 6 seasons and could at least make the Cubs forget about Koyie Hill for 2012.
Risers - Matt Szczur, Ryan Flaherty, D.J. LeMahieu, Robert Whitenack, Welington Castillo, Nicholas Struck, Austin Kirk
Fallers - Hayden Simpson, Christopher Carpenter, Jay Jackson, Rafael Dolis
Friday, July 15, 2011
The sign of the apocalypse: Cubs sign Dave Bush
Just when you thought the Cubs couldn't get any more desperate in their search for starting pitching depth, Jim Hendry proves us wrong again by signing major league washout Dave Bush to a minor league contract.
Pray to God that he never sees the light of day on the Cubs major league roster. But if he does, he will join the ever growing list of failed 5th starter reclamation projects, along with Ramon Ortiz and Doug Davis.
At least Todd Wellemeyer had the good sense to retire before subjecting himself to this humiliation.
Pray to God that he never sees the light of day on the Cubs major league roster. But if he does, he will join the ever growing list of failed 5th starter reclamation projects, along with Ramon Ortiz and Doug Davis.
At least Todd Wellemeyer had the good sense to retire before subjecting himself to this humiliation.
Brett Jackson Watch: Movin' on up!
This was a big week for Brett Jackson as he earned a promotion to....AAA Iowa!
OK, so its not the big leagues, but this is probably the smart move for the Cubs. This will give Jackson more time to develop while playing against tougher competition.
Yes, the Cubs are being conservative with Jackson, but I think they should be. To me, Jackson is kind of the mirror of Starlin Castro. Jackson shows patience at the plate, but tends to strike out too much, whereas Castro shows little patience, but makes good contact.
If you make good contact, you can succeed in the majors, even without patience, as Castro has shown. However, if you do not make good contact, the ability to take a walk will not be enough and you will struggle.
For the week, Jackson went just 2 for 24 with 6 K's, including a 1 for 5 with 2 K's performance in his Iowa debut last night. He's been running hot and cold all season (so we should expect a hot week next).
Here are he stats through 7/14/2011:
OK, so its not the big leagues, but this is probably the smart move for the Cubs. This will give Jackson more time to develop while playing against tougher competition.
Yes, the Cubs are being conservative with Jackson, but I think they should be. To me, Jackson is kind of the mirror of Starlin Castro. Jackson shows patience at the plate, but tends to strike out too much, whereas Castro shows little patience, but makes good contact.
If you make good contact, you can succeed in the majors, even without patience, as Castro has shown. However, if you do not make good contact, the ability to take a walk will not be enough and you will struggle.
For the week, Jackson went just 2 for 24 with 6 K's, including a 1 for 5 with 2 K's performance in his Iowa debut last night. He's been running hot and cold all season (so we should expect a hot week next).
Here are he stats through 7/14/2011:
| Year | Lev | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | AA-AAA | 68 | 251 | 46 | 64 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 32 | 15 | 45 | 76 | .255 | .370 | .442 | .812 |
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Revisiting the Matt Garza trade
Its been over a half a year since my rant on the Matt Garza trade, so I thought I'd clear my head of all negative thoughts and try to take a fresh look at the trade and how it has worked out so far for both teams.
For those of you who may have forgotten, the Cubs acquired Garza and Fernando Perez from the Rays for Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos, Hak-Ju Lee and Sam Fuld. Perez has recently been released by the Cubs, but he was not a key component of the trade anyway, so I will ignore him.
Matt Garza
Although the Cubs gave up the amount of talent befitting an ace, Garza has never been considered one. He is what he is, a good pitcher who takes the ball every 5 days. This year has been more of the same. With the exception of one stint on the DL in May, Garza has taken the ball every 5 days and has posted an ERA slightly below league average (94 ERA+).
With the injuries the Cubs rotation has suffered this year, Garza's stability has been a welcome addition to the rotation, even if his performance has not been as good as expected. Of course, the Cubs could have held on to their prospects and just kept Tom Gorzelanny, who has pitched better than Garza (97 ERA+) (albeit in fewer innings).
Chris Archer
The centerpiece of the deal, Archer has struggled with his new organization, posting a 4.72 ERA in 89.2 IP with the Rays' AA affiliate. The Cubs may have done well to sell high on Archer as he has appeared more hittable this year (10.0 H/9) and has shown the same control problems (4.7 BB/9 this year) that he experienced after his promotion to Tennessee last year (5.0 BB/9). Some of the luster is off his prospect status, but his 8.3 K/9 gives the Rays some hope.
Brandon Guyer
After his breakout year in 2010, in which he hit .344/.398/.588 for AA Tennessee, Guyer has continued to hit with the Rays, posting a .318/.389/.509 line at AAA. He has earned a couple of brief promotions to the Rays and hit a 2-run homerun in his first big league at bat. He could turn out to be the best prospect of this deal.
Robinson Chirinos
Another breakout performer in 2010 (.326/.416/.583, primarily at AA), Chirinos has come back to earth a bit in 2011 hitting .269/.343/.387 with the Rays' AAA affiliate. He still is considered a strong defender, although his long release gives him problems throwing out runners (just 24% caught stealing). He could be the Rays starting catcher as early as next year.
Hak-Ju Lee
I think Lee probably has the biggest upside of all the prospects included in this deal and that has shown this season with the Rays' high A affiliate. Lee has hit .330/.399/.458 in 288 AB's so far this year and has shown off his plus speed (20 SB's), while also showing that he still has a lot to learn about the nuances of base stealing (11 CS). Still rail thin (6'2", 170 lbs), Lee has shown little power in his career (3 HR's in 2011), but his other tools make up for it.
Sam Fuld
Placed into the Rays' starting lineup at the beginning of the season, Fuld hit .289/.358/.433 in April, earning him cult-hero status in Tampa. However, once the AL pitchers adjusted to him, they exposed him for what he is, a good defender with some speed who is best suited to be a 4th or 5th outfielder. On the season, he is hitting just .238/.299/.351.
Overall, other than Chris Archer, the Cubs dealt from positions of strength within the organization. Losing players like Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos and Hak-Ju Lee hurts the Cubs depth, but they still have outfield prospects Tony Campana, Brett Jackson and Matt Szczur; catching prospects Welington Castillo and Chris Robinson, and an abundance of young infielders, including major leaguers Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney.
I'm not as mad about the trade as I originally was, but I still think the Cubs could have gotten a better pitcher for the price they paid.
For those of you who may have forgotten, the Cubs acquired Garza and Fernando Perez from the Rays for Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos, Hak-Ju Lee and Sam Fuld. Perez has recently been released by the Cubs, but he was not a key component of the trade anyway, so I will ignore him.
Matt Garza
Although the Cubs gave up the amount of talent befitting an ace, Garza has never been considered one. He is what he is, a good pitcher who takes the ball every 5 days. This year has been more of the same. With the exception of one stint on the DL in May, Garza has taken the ball every 5 days and has posted an ERA slightly below league average (94 ERA+).
With the injuries the Cubs rotation has suffered this year, Garza's stability has been a welcome addition to the rotation, even if his performance has not been as good as expected. Of course, the Cubs could have held on to their prospects and just kept Tom Gorzelanny, who has pitched better than Garza (97 ERA+) (albeit in fewer innings).
Chris Archer
The centerpiece of the deal, Archer has struggled with his new organization, posting a 4.72 ERA in 89.2 IP with the Rays' AA affiliate. The Cubs may have done well to sell high on Archer as he has appeared more hittable this year (10.0 H/9) and has shown the same control problems (4.7 BB/9 this year) that he experienced after his promotion to Tennessee last year (5.0 BB/9). Some of the luster is off his prospect status, but his 8.3 K/9 gives the Rays some hope.
Brandon Guyer
After his breakout year in 2010, in which he hit .344/.398/.588 for AA Tennessee, Guyer has continued to hit with the Rays, posting a .318/.389/.509 line at AAA. He has earned a couple of brief promotions to the Rays and hit a 2-run homerun in his first big league at bat. He could turn out to be the best prospect of this deal.
Robinson Chirinos
Another breakout performer in 2010 (.326/.416/.583, primarily at AA), Chirinos has come back to earth a bit in 2011 hitting .269/.343/.387 with the Rays' AAA affiliate. He still is considered a strong defender, although his long release gives him problems throwing out runners (just 24% caught stealing). He could be the Rays starting catcher as early as next year.
Hak-Ju Lee
I think Lee probably has the biggest upside of all the prospects included in this deal and that has shown this season with the Rays' high A affiliate. Lee has hit .330/.399/.458 in 288 AB's so far this year and has shown off his plus speed (20 SB's), while also showing that he still has a lot to learn about the nuances of base stealing (11 CS). Still rail thin (6'2", 170 lbs), Lee has shown little power in his career (3 HR's in 2011), but his other tools make up for it.
Sam Fuld
Placed into the Rays' starting lineup at the beginning of the season, Fuld hit .289/.358/.433 in April, earning him cult-hero status in Tampa. However, once the AL pitchers adjusted to him, they exposed him for what he is, a good defender with some speed who is best suited to be a 4th or 5th outfielder. On the season, he is hitting just .238/.299/.351.
Overall, other than Chris Archer, the Cubs dealt from positions of strength within the organization. Losing players like Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos and Hak-Ju Lee hurts the Cubs depth, but they still have outfield prospects Tony Campana, Brett Jackson and Matt Szczur; catching prospects Welington Castillo and Chris Robinson, and an abundance of young infielders, including major leaguers Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney.
I'm not as mad about the trade as I originally was, but I still think the Cubs could have gotten a better pitcher for the price they paid.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Matt Garza on the block? NO!
You've got to love trading season in MLB, especially if you are a rumor monger like me. However, sometime the rumors get so far-fetched that you wonder why they are even reported.
Take the latest example: On Saturday, Phil Rogers of the Tribune reported that the Red Sox have strong interest in acquiring Matt Garza from the Cubs.
Repeat after me: Not gonna happen!
Sam McAdam of CSNNE confirmed this, saying "the Cubs have no interest in trading Matt Garza".
For one thing, if Jim Hendry were to trade Garza and not get back as much as he gave up for him, he would be run out of town. In case you missed it, Hendry basically traded the Cubs entire farm system for Garza. I don't know what kind of prospects the Red Sox have, but I imagine they don't have enough, especially after trading for Adrian Gonzalez this past offseason.
In addition, the Cubs have been struggling all year to fill their starting rotation. The last thing they need to do is trade their one decent starter for a bunch of prospects. Not if they have any hope of contending in the near future.
Put simply, the idea of trading Garza at this point is so ridiculous that Hendry will probably do it. He has spent the last several years making head-scratching moves. Why change now?
Take the latest example: On Saturday, Phil Rogers of the Tribune reported that the Red Sox have strong interest in acquiring Matt Garza from the Cubs.
Repeat after me: Not gonna happen!
Sam McAdam of CSNNE confirmed this, saying "the Cubs have no interest in trading Matt Garza".
For one thing, if Jim Hendry were to trade Garza and not get back as much as he gave up for him, he would be run out of town. In case you missed it, Hendry basically traded the Cubs entire farm system for Garza. I don't know what kind of prospects the Red Sox have, but I imagine they don't have enough, especially after trading for Adrian Gonzalez this past offseason.
In addition, the Cubs have been struggling all year to fill their starting rotation. The last thing they need to do is trade their one decent starter for a bunch of prospects. Not if they have any hope of contending in the near future.
Put simply, the idea of trading Garza at this point is so ridiculous that Hendry will probably do it. He has spent the last several years making head-scratching moves. Why change now?
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Minor League Monday: Who is the Cubs third baseman of the future?
Aramis Ramirez is signed through the 2011 season with a $16 million club option for 2012. Chances are that the Cubs will decline his 2012 option and look elsewhere for a third baseman. Josh Vitters has long been considered the heir apparent to Ramirez, but scouts are not that sure anymore.
Who are the internal third base options for the Cubs? Let's take a look:
Marquez Smith
Smith enjoyed a fine season with AAA Iowa in 2010, hitting .297/.371/.556 with 20 homers in 347 AB's (including 44 at Tennessee). However, after his strong season, the Cubs were apparently not impressed and left him off the 40 man roster prior to the Rule 5 draft, exposing him to other teams. They were not impressed either, as no one selected him in the draft.
This year, Smith has continued to hit well at Iowa (albeit with less power) with a .283/.353/.448 line, but just 6 homeruns in 223 AB's. Its probably not enough to force his way into the Cubs plans and its likely he will be with another team next year.
D. J. LeMahieu
LeMahieu is considered the best pure hitting prospect in the Cubs system. In 236 minor league games, he has hit .327. The problem is that is about the extent of his abilities, as he has limited power, with a career .408 slugging percentage.
He doesn't have the range to play second or short and is not the typical third baseman, due to his limited power. The Cubs believe that he can eventually hit 15 homeruns a year in the majors, once he learns to turn on inside pitches. This would give him an upside of maybe Wade Boggs or Bill Madlock. In other words, he could pass as a third baseman, but he would need to hit for a high average to make up for his lack of power.
Chances are he will end up more as a utility infielder with the Cubs. We already saw a little bit of this during his June callup, when he played 13 games at second, 2 at third and 1 at first.
Ryan Flaherty
Unlike LeMahieu, Flaherty probably has the power to stick at third. However, his problem has been defense. The Cubs don't seem to consider him a third baseman either, as they have shifted him all around the field in his brief minor league career. He has played 147 games at second, 111 at short, 86 at third, 32 in the outfield corners and 4 at first.
He too is likely destined to be a utility fielder and could become the next Mark DeRosa or Juan Uribe, a super-utility type who can play the infield and outfield corners along with a passable second and short. He has the pop to hit 20 homers a year in the bigs and, with his versatility, could make himself a valuable member of the Cubs in the not-so-distant future.
Josh Vitters
Prior to this season, Vitters still ranked as the Cubs highest third base prospect by Baseball America. BA had him as the Cubs 5th best prospect (out of 30), with LeMahieu at #13, Flaherty #22 and Smith unranked.
Vitters makes solid contact (career 83.8% contact rate in the minors), but that can be misleading. He shows a lack of patience (career 3.8% walk rate), often swinging at bad pitches and putting them in play for easy outs. His career line of .276/.316/.437 doesn't scream future major leaguer and his defense has come into question as well, with 13 errors in 53 games at third this year.
The Cubs have started playing him at first base this year (29 games at AA Tennessee), indicating that they may be giving up on him as their future third baseman. He's still young (just 21) and has time to turn things around, but it appears that the Cubs' patience is starting to wear thin.
Looking at the Cubs internal options, it appears that none of the minor leaguers are ready to take over third next year and thus the Cubs may have to pick up Ramirez' option or find a one year stopgap. However, if forced to choose one of them to be the Cubs' third baseman of the future, I would go with D. J. LeMahieu. He has shown the best combination of hitting and defense amongst the alternatives. If he could just develop average power, he could be a real asset to the team.
Who are the internal third base options for the Cubs? Let's take a look:
Marquez Smith
Smith enjoyed a fine season with AAA Iowa in 2010, hitting .297/.371/.556 with 20 homers in 347 AB's (including 44 at Tennessee). However, after his strong season, the Cubs were apparently not impressed and left him off the 40 man roster prior to the Rule 5 draft, exposing him to other teams. They were not impressed either, as no one selected him in the draft.
This year, Smith has continued to hit well at Iowa (albeit with less power) with a .283/.353/.448 line, but just 6 homeruns in 223 AB's. Its probably not enough to force his way into the Cubs plans and its likely he will be with another team next year.
D. J. LeMahieu
LeMahieu is considered the best pure hitting prospect in the Cubs system. In 236 minor league games, he has hit .327. The problem is that is about the extent of his abilities, as he has limited power, with a career .408 slugging percentage.
He doesn't have the range to play second or short and is not the typical third baseman, due to his limited power. The Cubs believe that he can eventually hit 15 homeruns a year in the majors, once he learns to turn on inside pitches. This would give him an upside of maybe Wade Boggs or Bill Madlock. In other words, he could pass as a third baseman, but he would need to hit for a high average to make up for his lack of power.
Chances are he will end up more as a utility infielder with the Cubs. We already saw a little bit of this during his June callup, when he played 13 games at second, 2 at third and 1 at first.
Ryan Flaherty
Unlike LeMahieu, Flaherty probably has the power to stick at third. However, his problem has been defense. The Cubs don't seem to consider him a third baseman either, as they have shifted him all around the field in his brief minor league career. He has played 147 games at second, 111 at short, 86 at third, 32 in the outfield corners and 4 at first.
He too is likely destined to be a utility fielder and could become the next Mark DeRosa or Juan Uribe, a super-utility type who can play the infield and outfield corners along with a passable second and short. He has the pop to hit 20 homers a year in the bigs and, with his versatility, could make himself a valuable member of the Cubs in the not-so-distant future.
Josh Vitters
Prior to this season, Vitters still ranked as the Cubs highest third base prospect by Baseball America. BA had him as the Cubs 5th best prospect (out of 30), with LeMahieu at #13, Flaherty #22 and Smith unranked.
Vitters makes solid contact (career 83.8% contact rate in the minors), but that can be misleading. He shows a lack of patience (career 3.8% walk rate), often swinging at bad pitches and putting them in play for easy outs. His career line of .276/.316/.437 doesn't scream future major leaguer and his defense has come into question as well, with 13 errors in 53 games at third this year.
The Cubs have started playing him at first base this year (29 games at AA Tennessee), indicating that they may be giving up on him as their future third baseman. He's still young (just 21) and has time to turn things around, but it appears that the Cubs' patience is starting to wear thin.
Looking at the Cubs internal options, it appears that none of the minor leaguers are ready to take over third next year and thus the Cubs may have to pick up Ramirez' option or find a one year stopgap. However, if forced to choose one of them to be the Cubs' third baseman of the future, I would go with D. J. LeMahieu. He has shown the best combination of hitting and defense amongst the alternatives. If he could just develop average power, he could be a real asset to the team.
Friday, July 8, 2011
Brett Jackson Watch: Back into a groove
It was a good week for Brett Jackson. No, check that, it was a GREAT week for Brett.
Coming off one of his worst hitting weeks, Brett bounced back with an 11 for 25 week (.440), with 6 walks, 3 homers and 4 multi-hit games. This brings his season line up to .273/.388/.476.
Its nice to see Brett bounce back after a tough week. Hopefully he can carry the momentum forward and earn a promotion to AAA.
Here are his season stats through 7/7/2011:
Coming off one of his worst hitting weeks, Brett bounced back with an 11 for 25 week (.440), with 6 walks, 3 homers and 4 multi-hit games. This brings his season line up to .273/.388/.476.
Its nice to see Brett bounce back after a tough week. Hopefully he can carry the momentum forward and earn a promotion to AAA.
Here are his season stats through 7/7/2011:
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