When your most consistent pitcher over the last three years gets roughed up for 7 runs while recording only one out, you know something is wrong. If it was just an isolated incident, you could write it off as a bad day. But this is the 6th straight poor start on the young season for Ryan Dempster, who now sports a 9.58 ERA and 1.87 whip.
Mike Quade thinks Dempster is "just not executing his pitches", but there's got to be more to it than that, right?
Is he hiding an injury? PitchFX does not show a significant drop in his velocity. His average fastball velocity for 2011 is at 90.2 mph, down only slightly from 2010 (90.9 mph) and 2009 (90.6 mph). His fastball usually hovers around 90 mph and it was in the 89-91 range tonight.
Something certainly is not right with Dempster and with the early struggles of Matt Garza and the injuries to both Andrew Cashner and Randy Wells, the Cubs can ill afford their de facto "ace" to struggle as well. The bullpen's arms have to be nearly falling off by now.
Dempster will get to face the offensively challenged Dodgers next, which could provide Dempster with a chance to get back on track. However, if he struggles against them, then it might be time to really worry.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Is Tyler Colvin in danger of being demoted?
The rumors have not started yet and he hasn't even received the dreaded vote of confidence from manager Mike Quade, but its looking more and more like Ty Colvin could be demoted to AAA Iowa.
While Kosuke Fukudome has gotten off to his typical hot April start (.458/.552/.479), Colvin, who was suppose to split time with Fukudome, has struggled (.128/.196/.319). Quade has taken notice and pushed Colvin to the back of the bench, with Reed Johnson serving as Fukudome's platoon partner and Jeff Baker platooning with Carlos Pena at first.
As a result, playing time has been sparse for Colvin. Colvin has started just one of the last 10 games and that was the first game of the double-header on April 20th. Its hard to get out of a slump when you are not playing regularly and Colvin is just 1 for 10 in those 10 games.
By the looks of it, a demotion would make sense. Colvin would get regular playing time to work on his swing and the Cubs could call up someone who could provide more help off the bench. Looking at the Iowa stats, there are 3 outfielders tearing it up so far in Lou Montanez (.435/.487/.739), Bryan LaHair (.375/.464/.732) and Tony Campana (.328/.381/.448), who could provide an offensive spark for the Cubs.
I think it is in the best interests of the Cubs and Colvin for him to go to Iowa and get his head on straight, especially if he is just going to rot on the bench in Chicago.
While Kosuke Fukudome has gotten off to his typical hot April start (.458/.552/.479), Colvin, who was suppose to split time with Fukudome, has struggled (.128/.196/.319). Quade has taken notice and pushed Colvin to the back of the bench, with Reed Johnson serving as Fukudome's platoon partner and Jeff Baker platooning with Carlos Pena at first.
As a result, playing time has been sparse for Colvin. Colvin has started just one of the last 10 games and that was the first game of the double-header on April 20th. Its hard to get out of a slump when you are not playing regularly and Colvin is just 1 for 10 in those 10 games.
By the looks of it, a demotion would make sense. Colvin would get regular playing time to work on his swing and the Cubs could call up someone who could provide more help off the bench. Looking at the Iowa stats, there are 3 outfielders tearing it up so far in Lou Montanez (.435/.487/.739), Bryan LaHair (.375/.464/.732) and Tony Campana (.328/.381/.448), who could provide an offensive spark for the Cubs.
I think it is in the best interests of the Cubs and Colvin for him to go to Iowa and get his head on straight, especially if he is just going to rot on the bench in Chicago.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Could Sean Marshall be an option for the Cubs' rotation?
Last year around this time the Cubs had some serious bullpen issues, which led Lou Piniella to do the unthinkable (although not to me) and move Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen.
This year, the roles are reversed, as the starters are the ones struggling. With injured starters Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner at least a few weeks away from returning, maybe its time to think outside the box once again and convert Sean Marshall back to a starter (at least temporarily).
As I discussed in yesterday's post, there is not a lot of help to be found in the minors and fill-ins Casey Coleman and James Russell don't appear to be the answer.
Could Marshall be an option?
Marshall last started a game in 2009, when he was still serving as the Cubs long man and spot starter. Since then, he has been used mostly as a set up man. If the Cubs were to convert him to a starter, he would need to be stretched out, which (using Zambrano last year as a guide) could take about 2 weeks. (He could get stretched out by relieving Coleman or Russell after their typical early exits).
Another factor is that it appears that Marshall has found his niche in the bullpen. For his career, Marshall has an ERA of 4.86 as a starter and 2.76 out of the pen. In 2009, his last year as a (spot) starter, Marshall had a 5.24 ERA as a starter versus a 3.23 ERA out of the pen.
On the other hand, Marshall has proven to be one of the Cubs better pitchers the last few years. One of the arguments against moving Zambrano to the pen last year is that you don't put your "ace" in the pen, as he gives you more value (and innings) as a starter. Marshall is not an ace, but he is a better starter than either Coleman or Russell and would be more valuable pitching 6-7 innings every 5 days, than pitching 1 inning every other day.
Then there is the question of who would replace Marshall in the pen. I certainly would not want to see James Russell there, but the Cubs have a couple options at AAA Iowa. Both righty Chris Carpenter and lefty John Gaub have posted a 1.93 ERA in 9.1 IP so far this year. Gaub appears to be over his wildness issues from last year, posting an 18/6 K/BB ratio, while Carpenter appears to be adapting well since converting to the pen last year. Either one could step in and take Marshall's place in the pen.
If it takes a couple weeks to stretch out Marshall and it takes about 4 weeks or so for either Cashner or Wells to return, that would probably give Marshall only about 3-4 starts before he would have to head back to the pen. However, if Cashner or Wells has a setback, then the Cubs have a viable option for as long as it takes for them to get healthy.
Plus, if Carpenter or Gaub have proven themselves as reliable relievers, then Marshall could return to his old role as spot starter/long reliever. Otherwise, he returns to the setup role and Carpenter or Gaub return to AAA for more seasoning.
In any case, I see it as a win-win scenario for the Cubs (and Marshall).
This year, the roles are reversed, as the starters are the ones struggling. With injured starters Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner at least a few weeks away from returning, maybe its time to think outside the box once again and convert Sean Marshall back to a starter (at least temporarily).
As I discussed in yesterday's post, there is not a lot of help to be found in the minors and fill-ins Casey Coleman and James Russell don't appear to be the answer.
Could Marshall be an option?
Marshall last started a game in 2009, when he was still serving as the Cubs long man and spot starter. Since then, he has been used mostly as a set up man. If the Cubs were to convert him to a starter, he would need to be stretched out, which (using Zambrano last year as a guide) could take about 2 weeks. (He could get stretched out by relieving Coleman or Russell after their typical early exits).
Another factor is that it appears that Marshall has found his niche in the bullpen. For his career, Marshall has an ERA of 4.86 as a starter and 2.76 out of the pen. In 2009, his last year as a (spot) starter, Marshall had a 5.24 ERA as a starter versus a 3.23 ERA out of the pen.
On the other hand, Marshall has proven to be one of the Cubs better pitchers the last few years. One of the arguments against moving Zambrano to the pen last year is that you don't put your "ace" in the pen, as he gives you more value (and innings) as a starter. Marshall is not an ace, but he is a better starter than either Coleman or Russell and would be more valuable pitching 6-7 innings every 5 days, than pitching 1 inning every other day.
Then there is the question of who would replace Marshall in the pen. I certainly would not want to see James Russell there, but the Cubs have a couple options at AAA Iowa. Both righty Chris Carpenter and lefty John Gaub have posted a 1.93 ERA in 9.1 IP so far this year. Gaub appears to be over his wildness issues from last year, posting an 18/6 K/BB ratio, while Carpenter appears to be adapting well since converting to the pen last year. Either one could step in and take Marshall's place in the pen.
If it takes a couple weeks to stretch out Marshall and it takes about 4 weeks or so for either Cashner or Wells to return, that would probably give Marshall only about 3-4 starts before he would have to head back to the pen. However, if Cashner or Wells has a setback, then the Cubs have a viable option for as long as it takes for them to get healthy.
Plus, if Carpenter or Gaub have proven themselves as reliable relievers, then Marshall could return to his old role as spot starter/long reliever. Otherwise, he returns to the setup role and Carpenter or Gaub return to AAA for more seasoning.
In any case, I see it as a win-win scenario for the Cubs (and Marshall).
Monday, April 25, 2011
Minor League Monday: Is there any help on the way for the Cubs' beleaguered starting rotation?
Let's face it, the Cubs starters have been terrible, posting a combined 6.03 ERA in 21 starts so far. It hasn't helped that two of the Cubs' starters (Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner) went down with injuries after just one start and that their replacements, James Russell (12.71 ERA as a starter) and Casey Coleman (7.43 ERA), have been pathetic.
Is there any help on the way from the minors?
Well, the starting pitching at AAA Iowa has been just as bad, with Thomas Diamond (9.92 ERA), Robert Coello (8.40 ERA) and Austin Bibens-Dirkx (6.63 ERA) yet to impress. The best options for the Cubs at AAA are 37 year old retread Ramon Ortiz (4.02 ERA in 3 starts) and J.R. Mathes (3.94 ERA), who didn't even make the Baseball America Cubs' Top 30 prospect list.
One of the Cubs top prospects, Jay Jackson, just recently made his first start for Iowa and although he pitched well (2 ER in 5 IP), I think the Cubs are going to want him to get a few more starts before calling him up.
The story isn't much better down at AA Tennessee, as Alberto Cabrera (5.06 ERA), Chris Rusin (5.68) and Brooks Raley (6.92 ERA) have all gotten off to slow starts. The Cubs' top pitching prospect, Trey McNutt, just recently came back from a blister issue, so he likely isn't an option. Another highly regarded Cubs prospect, Rafael Dolis, has a 1.46 ERA and 13 K's in 12.1 IP. However, he has only made 15 starts above A ball (including 3 this year).
So, with Russell's turn in the rotation coming up tomorrow, the Cubs have a big decision on their hands. Do they continue to trot Russell out there (and continue to blow up their bullpen) or do they try someone else?
Well, the best options at AAA, Ortiz and Mathes, are not on the Cubs' 40-man roster and both recently made starts, on the 23rd and 22nd, respectively, so they are out of the picture.
Thus, if the Cubs want to replace Russell in the rotation Tuesday, there is really only one possibility: Rafael Dolis and it looks like the Cubs may be leaning towards giving him the start. He last pitched on April 19th and as of now Tennessee hasn't announced a starter for tonight's game (which would be his normal turn in the rotation).
So, keep an eye on Tennessee tonight to see if Dolis makes his start. If he does, expect to see another James Russell masterpiece tomorrow, but if Dolis doesn't make the start, expect to see him in a Cubs' uniform tomorrow.
UPDATE: Dolis is now listed as the starter for Tennessee, so we get to enjoy another start by Russell tomorrow night.
Is there any help on the way from the minors?
Well, the starting pitching at AAA Iowa has been just as bad, with Thomas Diamond (9.92 ERA), Robert Coello (8.40 ERA) and Austin Bibens-Dirkx (6.63 ERA) yet to impress. The best options for the Cubs at AAA are 37 year old retread Ramon Ortiz (4.02 ERA in 3 starts) and J.R. Mathes (3.94 ERA), who didn't even make the Baseball America Cubs' Top 30 prospect list.
One of the Cubs top prospects, Jay Jackson, just recently made his first start for Iowa and although he pitched well (2 ER in 5 IP), I think the Cubs are going to want him to get a few more starts before calling him up.
The story isn't much better down at AA Tennessee, as Alberto Cabrera (5.06 ERA), Chris Rusin (5.68) and Brooks Raley (6.92 ERA) have all gotten off to slow starts. The Cubs' top pitching prospect, Trey McNutt, just recently came back from a blister issue, so he likely isn't an option. Another highly regarded Cubs prospect, Rafael Dolis, has a 1.46 ERA and 13 K's in 12.1 IP. However, he has only made 15 starts above A ball (including 3 this year).
So, with Russell's turn in the rotation coming up tomorrow, the Cubs have a big decision on their hands. Do they continue to trot Russell out there (and continue to blow up their bullpen) or do they try someone else?
Well, the best options at AAA, Ortiz and Mathes, are not on the Cubs' 40-man roster and both recently made starts, on the 23rd and 22nd, respectively, so they are out of the picture.
Thus, if the Cubs want to replace Russell in the rotation Tuesday, there is really only one possibility: Rafael Dolis and it looks like the Cubs may be leaning towards giving him the start. He last pitched on April 19th and as of now Tennessee hasn't announced a starter for tonight's game (which would be his normal turn in the rotation).
So, keep an eye on Tennessee tonight to see if Dolis makes his start. If he does, expect to see another James Russell masterpiece tomorrow, but if Dolis doesn't make the start, expect to see him in a Cubs' uniform tomorrow.
UPDATE: Dolis is now listed as the starter for Tennessee, so we get to enjoy another start by Russell tomorrow night.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Ryan Braun signs extension with Brewers; Prince Fielder now closer to becoming a Cub
Yesterday, the Milwaukee Brewers announced that they have signed outfielder Ryan Braun to an extension through the year 2020. While that's great for Braun and the Brewers, the general consensus around baseball is this pretty much guarantees that the Brewers will let first baseman Prince Fielder walk after this season.
Which brings us to the Cubs.
With money to spare this upcoming offseason and Carlos Pena looking more and more like a stopgap than a long-term solution, Fielder is looking like he could be option number one for 2012 (and beyond).
And it could be a HUGE mistake.
Fielder is currently listed at 5'11" and 275 pounds. He looks more like he should be playing on the offensive line instead of first base and like his father, Cecil, before him, his weight could become an issue.
Cecil Fielder was one of the most prodigious homerun hitters of his time. He hit 51 homeruns in 1990, the first player to reach 50 homers since George Foster in 1977 (yes, before steroids, 50 homeruns was difficult to reach). In 7 seasons from 1990-1996, Cecil hit 258 homers (about 37 per year).
After that, things went downhill fast. He was traded to the Yankees in the middle of 1996 and in 1997 he hit only 13 homeruns. The Yankees blamed his weight for his power failure and he ended up playing only one more year in the majors (with the Angels in 1998) before his career was over.
The concern here is that Prince could follow a similar career path as his father. His weight will always be an issue and could lead to a similar dropoff in production that his father experienced in his early 30's.
Fielder will get his big payday from some team, probably around 7 years, $140 million. However, chances are that, by year 4 or 5 of that contract, he will either be a full-time DH or out of baseball.
Which brings us to the Cubs.
With money to spare this upcoming offseason and Carlos Pena looking more and more like a stopgap than a long-term solution, Fielder is looking like he could be option number one for 2012 (and beyond).
And it could be a HUGE mistake.
Fielder is currently listed at 5'11" and 275 pounds. He looks more like he should be playing on the offensive line instead of first base and like his father, Cecil, before him, his weight could become an issue.
Cecil Fielder was one of the most prodigious homerun hitters of his time. He hit 51 homeruns in 1990, the first player to reach 50 homers since George Foster in 1977 (yes, before steroids, 50 homeruns was difficult to reach). In 7 seasons from 1990-1996, Cecil hit 258 homers (about 37 per year).
After that, things went downhill fast. He was traded to the Yankees in the middle of 1996 and in 1997 he hit only 13 homeruns. The Yankees blamed his weight for his power failure and he ended up playing only one more year in the majors (with the Angels in 1998) before his career was over.
The concern here is that Prince could follow a similar career path as his father. His weight will always be an issue and could lead to a similar dropoff in production that his father experienced in his early 30's.
Fielder will get his big payday from some team, probably around 7 years, $140 million. However, chances are that, by year 4 or 5 of that contract, he will either be a full-time DH or out of baseball.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Has Carlos Zambrano reinvented himself as a pitcher?
There was a time when Carlos Zambrano was considered a power pitcher. He featured a low 90's sinker and a 4-seam fastball that he could throw in the mid-to-upper 90's.
However, with his sinker now averaging around 89-90 mph and his 4-seamer in the low 90's, his days of being a power pitcher are behind him. But, as we saw Monday night against the Padres (and at the end of last season) it appears that Zambrano has learned how to pitch with his "new stuff".
One of the best inventions (for baseball fans anyway) over the last several years is Pitch f/x, which made its debut in 2006 and is installed in every MLB ballpark. Pitch f/x is a system used to determine the speed and movement of each pitch.
The folks over at Fangraphs have put together a Pitch f/x analysis for every pitcher and looking at the trends for Carlos Zambrano from 2007-2011 paints and interesting picture.
For one thing, you can see that from 2007-2011, Zambrano's average 4-seam fastball velocity (FA-Vel) has dropped from 91.7 in 2007 to 89.6 so far this year. But the more interesting thing I take away from this analysis is the change in the mix of pitches that Zambrano is throwing.
Zambrano basically throws 3 different fastballs: the 4-seam (FA), the sinker (FT) and a cutter (FC). He also mixes in a split-finger fastball (FS) on occassion, but he really only features the 3.
According to the Pitch f/x Type chart, back in 2007-2008 Zambrano was still featuring mostly his 4-seamer, throwing it over 65% of the time. However, as his velocity started to dip, so did his reliance on his 4-seamer, to the point that in 2011, he has only thrown it 17.5% of the time.
On the other side of the spectrum, we see an increase in his use of his sinker and cutter. In 2007, he threw either the sinker or cutter a total of 11.2%, while now he is throwing those pitches a combined 58.4%.
Why the change? I think (and this is pure speculation) that the Big Z finally realized that he could no longer blow his straight fastball past hitters and decided to use his other fastballs more, as they have better movement.
Whatever the reason, it appears to be working well for him. Although he is not inducing as many groundouts as he used to early on in his career, his strikeout rate is up, from a low of 6.2 K/9 in 2008 to its current level of 8.1.
So, kudos to Carlos for adjusting his arsenal to match his stuff and let's hope it continues to pay off for him.
However, with his sinker now averaging around 89-90 mph and his 4-seamer in the low 90's, his days of being a power pitcher are behind him. But, as we saw Monday night against the Padres (and at the end of last season) it appears that Zambrano has learned how to pitch with his "new stuff".
One of the best inventions (for baseball fans anyway) over the last several years is Pitch f/x, which made its debut in 2006 and is installed in every MLB ballpark. Pitch f/x is a system used to determine the speed and movement of each pitch.
The folks over at Fangraphs have put together a Pitch f/x analysis for every pitcher and looking at the trends for Carlos Zambrano from 2007-2011 paints and interesting picture.
For one thing, you can see that from 2007-2011, Zambrano's average 4-seam fastball velocity (FA-Vel) has dropped from 91.7 in 2007 to 89.6 so far this year. But the more interesting thing I take away from this analysis is the change in the mix of pitches that Zambrano is throwing.
Zambrano basically throws 3 different fastballs: the 4-seam (FA), the sinker (FT) and a cutter (FC). He also mixes in a split-finger fastball (FS) on occassion, but he really only features the 3.
According to the Pitch f/x Type chart, back in 2007-2008 Zambrano was still featuring mostly his 4-seamer, throwing it over 65% of the time. However, as his velocity started to dip, so did his reliance on his 4-seamer, to the point that in 2011, he has only thrown it 17.5% of the time.
On the other side of the spectrum, we see an increase in his use of his sinker and cutter. In 2007, he threw either the sinker or cutter a total of 11.2%, while now he is throwing those pitches a combined 58.4%.
Why the change? I think (and this is pure speculation) that the Big Z finally realized that he could no longer blow his straight fastball past hitters and decided to use his other fastballs more, as they have better movement.
Whatever the reason, it appears to be working well for him. Although he is not inducing as many groundouts as he used to early on in his career, his strikeout rate is up, from a low of 6.2 K/9 in 2008 to its current level of 8.1.
So, kudos to Carlos for adjusting his arsenal to match his stuff and let's hope it continues to pay off for him.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Minor League Monday: Brett Jackson making some noise in AA
Brett Jackson is on fire!
Through 10 games at the Cubs' Double A Tennessee affiliate, he's hitting .441/.535/.647, with 5 stolen bases and an impressive 8/7 BB/K ratio. Speculation has already started that he could earn an early call-up, similar to Starlin Castro (who was called up on May 7th last year).
So, the question is not if Brett Jackson will be called up this year, but when.
My feeling is that, even though he's tearing the cover off the ball, the Cubs probably won't call him up until June, at the earliest.
Here is why I think they'll wait:
Thus, I would not expect to see Brett Jackson in a Cubs uniform until the first week of June, when he'll either replace Colvin (if he's still struggling) or Fukudome (if he's traded).
Until then, if we want to see the Cubs' center fielder of the future, we'll just have to go to Tennessee.
Through 10 games at the Cubs' Double A Tennessee affiliate, he's hitting .441/.535/.647, with 5 stolen bases and an impressive 8/7 BB/K ratio. Speculation has already started that he could earn an early call-up, similar to Starlin Castro (who was called up on May 7th last year).
So, the question is not if Brett Jackson will be called up this year, but when.
My feeling is that, even though he's tearing the cover off the ball, the Cubs probably won't call him up until June, at the earliest.
Here is why I think they'll wait:
- Outfield Logjam - Last year, the Cubs offense needed a spark and the weakest position was second base, which featured a platoon of Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker. Thus, calling up Castro and moving Ryan Theriot to second seemed like a logical move. This year, the Cubs have 4 potential starting outfielders already (Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukudome and Tyler Colvin). Colvin has struggled so far, but Soriano, Byrd and Fukudome (when healthy) have all performed well. The Cubs would probably have to find someone to take Fukudome off their hands before they give Jackson a shot.
- Contact Ability - While Jackson has been pretty good at taking a walk in his minor league career (12% career walk rate), his strikeout rate of 22% is double that of Castro's (11%). Castro's ability to make contact is one of the reasons he's been so successful in the majors. As the old adage says, if you put the ball in play (usually) good things happen. So, although Jackson seems to be improving in this area (if his early returns are any indication), he still has some work to do.
- Super Two Status - The Cubs didn't think twice about Castro gaining Super Two status last year, while calling him up before June, so why should they be concerned now? Well, as we have seen this past offseason, the free spending Cubs are becoming a thing of the past. It looks like Jim Hendry will be spending the Ricketts' money more wisely as we go forward. No longer does he have the Tribune Company telling him to spend whatever it takes to build a contender. Now it appears that more focus is on developing players from within and then (hopefully) locking up those players before they become free agents. If they can delay the arbitration process for a year, it would certainly help.
Thus, I would not expect to see Brett Jackson in a Cubs uniform until the first week of June, when he'll either replace Colvin (if he's still struggling) or Fukudome (if he's traded).
Until then, if we want to see the Cubs' center fielder of the future, we'll just have to go to Tennessee.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Matt Garza continues to pitch poorly. Is the air still too dry?
Is it too late to ask for a refund?
After selling the farm for Matt Garza, the last thing Cubs fans want to see is for him to struggle out of the gate. But his first 3 starts have certainly been a struggle.
After complaining about the dry air in Arizona leading to his struggles this spring, he doesn't have that excuse anymore.
So why is he pitching so poorly? Speculation abounds:
Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald suggests that he is throwing too many strikes.
ChiCitySports.com suggests that he is not throwing enough fastballs and getting beat on his "soft stuff".
Or perhaps he's just unlucky.
Whatever the issue is, Garza is not endearing himself to Cubs fans. So far he has blamed the dry air in Arizona and taken a veiled shot at his pitching coach. Sometimes you have to take the blame for your own poor performances.
Can he turn it around this season? His track record certainly says that he should. However, if his "slump" continues much longer, it could become a mental thing and when pitchers start thinking too much, it can only hurt the ballclub (just ask Ebby Calvin "Nuke" LaLoosh).
After selling the farm for Matt Garza, the last thing Cubs fans want to see is for him to struggle out of the gate. But his first 3 starts have certainly been a struggle.
After complaining about the dry air in Arizona leading to his struggles this spring, he doesn't have that excuse anymore.
So why is he pitching so poorly? Speculation abounds:
Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald suggests that he is throwing too many strikes.
ChiCitySports.com suggests that he is not throwing enough fastballs and getting beat on his "soft stuff".
Or perhaps he's just unlucky.
Whatever the issue is, Garza is not endearing himself to Cubs fans. So far he has blamed the dry air in Arizona and taken a veiled shot at his pitching coach. Sometimes you have to take the blame for your own poor performances.
Can he turn it around this season? His track record certainly says that he should. However, if his "slump" continues much longer, it could become a mental thing and when pitchers start thinking too much, it can only hurt the ballclub (just ask Ebby Calvin "Nuke" LaLoosh).
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Is Kosuke Fukudome getting Wally Pipp(ed) out of the leadoff spot?
With Kosuke Fukudome resting a sore hamstring the last few days, Cubs manager Mike Quade has used Starlin Castro as the leadoff hitter, with Darwin Barney hitting second. The experiment has been pretty successful, to say the least.
Castro has gone 8 for 15 in the leadoff spot, scoring 4 runs in the process. While Barney, hitting in Castro's usual spot, has gone 4 for 11, with 3 runs scored and 2 rbi's.
I know, its a small sample size, but it is enough to probably make Quade consider Castro and Barney as a regular 1-2 punch.
Both players have similar minor league numbers in terms of making contact (strikeout rates around 11%) and drawing walks (walk rates between 6-7%). The contact numbers are great, but they both could be a little more patient at the plate.
Castro is a star in the making and will probably hit no matter where you put him in the lineup. He's probably best suited for hitting atop the lineup (either in the 1 or 2 spot) at this point in his career, but if he adds some muscle and starts turning those doubles into homeruns, he could become an excellent #3 hitter.
As for Barney, the jury is still out on him. He's been pretty impressive so far this year, but his minor league numbers are just average at best. In fact, I think he could end up being another Ryan Theriot, without as much speed (and The Riot is not a blazer).
Barney is probably not the Cubs long-term answer at second, but he's good enough to keep the spot warm until one of the other infield prospects (Ryan Flaherty or D.J. LeMahieu) are ready.
For now, expect to see Castro and Barney get more looks in the top 2 spots, along with the old lineup of Fukudome and Castro.
Castro has gone 8 for 15 in the leadoff spot, scoring 4 runs in the process. While Barney, hitting in Castro's usual spot, has gone 4 for 11, with 3 runs scored and 2 rbi's.
I know, its a small sample size, but it is enough to probably make Quade consider Castro and Barney as a regular 1-2 punch.
Both players have similar minor league numbers in terms of making contact (strikeout rates around 11%) and drawing walks (walk rates between 6-7%). The contact numbers are great, but they both could be a little more patient at the plate.
Castro is a star in the making and will probably hit no matter where you put him in the lineup. He's probably best suited for hitting atop the lineup (either in the 1 or 2 spot) at this point in his career, but if he adds some muscle and starts turning those doubles into homeruns, he could become an excellent #3 hitter.
As for Barney, the jury is still out on him. He's been pretty impressive so far this year, but his minor league numbers are just average at best. In fact, I think he could end up being another Ryan Theriot, without as much speed (and The Riot is not a blazer).
Barney is probably not the Cubs long-term answer at second, but he's good enough to keep the spot warm until one of the other infield prospects (Ryan Flaherty or D.J. LeMahieu) are ready.
For now, expect to see Castro and Barney get more looks in the top 2 spots, along with the old lineup of Fukudome and Castro.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
James Russell knocked around; Cubs sign Doug Davis
OK, maybe the stories aren't entirely related, but its obvious the Cubs have some concerns about their pitching depth. If they didn't, they certainly did after James Russell's start tonight.
According to Gordon Wittenmyer, the Cubs signed Doug Davis to a minor league deal today. He will report to extended spring training to stretch himself out before reporting to the minors. Patrick Mooney reports that Jim Hendry expects Davis to be in AAA by the end of April.
What has the Cubs so nervous that they would sign a 35 year old pitcher who posted a 7.51 ERA in 8 starts last year with the Brewers? Perhaps its that they have to rely on unproven starters like Russell, who gave up 7 hits and 4 runs in just 1.2 IP tonight. Or perhaps its that the Cubs other option to fill the 5th starter role, Thomas Diamond, got lit up tonight in his AAA start to the tune of 9 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks in just 3.1 IP.
The Cubs do not want to rush their youngsters, such as Trey McNutt, and risk hurting their development for what might be a lost cause of a season already. Which is why Doug Davis was signed and another retread, Ramon Ortiz, is pitching at AAA.
If Russell continues to struggle, it won't be long until we see either Ortiz or Davis in a Cubs uniform.
Maybe its not too late to bring back Carlos Silva.
According to Gordon Wittenmyer, the Cubs signed Doug Davis to a minor league deal today. He will report to extended spring training to stretch himself out before reporting to the minors. Patrick Mooney reports that Jim Hendry expects Davis to be in AAA by the end of April.
What has the Cubs so nervous that they would sign a 35 year old pitcher who posted a 7.51 ERA in 8 starts last year with the Brewers? Perhaps its that they have to rely on unproven starters like Russell, who gave up 7 hits and 4 runs in just 1.2 IP tonight. Or perhaps its that the Cubs other option to fill the 5th starter role, Thomas Diamond, got lit up tonight in his AAA start to the tune of 9 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks in just 3.1 IP.
The Cubs do not want to rush their youngsters, such as Trey McNutt, and risk hurting their development for what might be a lost cause of a season already. Which is why Doug Davis was signed and another retread, Ramon Ortiz, is pitching at AAA.
If Russell continues to struggle, it won't be long until we see either Ortiz or Davis in a Cubs uniform.
Maybe its not too late to bring back Carlos Silva.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Minor League Monday: Where the Cubs Top Prospects are Playing
The minor league season (for full-season leagues) kicked off last week. For those of you who like to follow the next generation of Cubbies, here is where the Cubs Top Prospects are playing, along with an update on their early season performances.
Iowa Cubs
One step away from the big show, the Iowa Cubs are expected to feature pitchers Chris Carpenter and Jay Jackson. Carpenter was moved to the pen last year and has made one appearance so far for Iowa, giving up 1 run in 1.1 IP.
Jackson is still in extended spring training as he recovers from shoulder fatigue.
The team also features prospect Marquez Smith.
Tennessee Smokies
The Smokies are absolutely loaded with prospects this season as the Cubs top three prospects, Brett Jackson,Trey McNutt and Josh Vitters, will be joined there by fellow top 10 prospects D.J. LeMahieu and Rafael Dolis.
Jackson (7 for 17), Vitters (6 for 15) and LeMahieu (7 for 18) have all gotten off to hot starts. While McNutt (2.2 scoreless and hitless innings) and Dolis (4.0 IP, 5 K's and 1 ER) have pitched well in their lone appearances.
The team also features rising prospect Alberto Cabrera as well as former Top 10 prospect Ryan Flaherty.
With all that talent, the Smokies should contend for the league crown.
Daytona Cubs
The only Top 10 Prospect on Daytona's roster is outfielder Jae-Hoon Ha. He has started out the season well, going 5 for 14.
Other hitting prospects of note include catcher Welington Castillo (5 for 15), shortstop Junior Lake (4 for 12) and second baseman Logan Watkins (3 for 10). Michael Burgess, who the Cubs acquired in the Tom Gorzelanny trade, also takes up residence here and is off to a 2 for 12 start.
On the pitching side, Brett Wallach, who was acquired in the Ted Lilly trade last season, was roughed up in his first start (4.1 IP, 6 runs/3 ER). Aaron Kurcz, who also received votes in the composite top 10 list, gave up 3 ER in 5 IP in his lone start.
Also keep an eye on Dae-Eun Rhee, who is in his first full year after Tommy John surgery in 2009. He's looked good so far (4 K's in 3.2 IP). Jeffrey Beliveau should garner some attention as well, as his 3 K's in 1.1 IP so far can attest.
Peoria Chiefs
The Chiefs feature 2010 first round pick Hayden Simpson, who finally made his minor league debut and is off to an excellent start, striking out 7 in 3.2 IP.
Matt Szczur, who Phil Rogers thinks could be the Cubs next great center fielder, is also stationed here. He has gone 3 for 8 so far this season.
The team also features 2009 third round pick Austin Kirk and Northwestern alum Eric Jokisch.
Rookie Ball
Notably absent from the above is 2010 second round pick Reggie Golden. Golden played just 4 games for the rookie Arizona League Cubs after signing late last year and will likely either return there or be assigned to short-season Boise.
Iowa Cubs
One step away from the big show, the Iowa Cubs are expected to feature pitchers Chris Carpenter and Jay Jackson. Carpenter was moved to the pen last year and has made one appearance so far for Iowa, giving up 1 run in 1.1 IP.
Jackson is still in extended spring training as he recovers from shoulder fatigue.
The team also features prospect Marquez Smith.
Tennessee Smokies
The Smokies are absolutely loaded with prospects this season as the Cubs top three prospects, Brett Jackson,Trey McNutt and Josh Vitters, will be joined there by fellow top 10 prospects D.J. LeMahieu and Rafael Dolis.
Jackson (7 for 17), Vitters (6 for 15) and LeMahieu (7 for 18) have all gotten off to hot starts. While McNutt (2.2 scoreless and hitless innings) and Dolis (4.0 IP, 5 K's and 1 ER) have pitched well in their lone appearances.
The team also features rising prospect Alberto Cabrera as well as former Top 10 prospect Ryan Flaherty.
With all that talent, the Smokies should contend for the league crown.
Daytona Cubs
The only Top 10 Prospect on Daytona's roster is outfielder Jae-Hoon Ha. He has started out the season well, going 5 for 14.
Other hitting prospects of note include catcher Welington Castillo (5 for 15), shortstop Junior Lake (4 for 12) and second baseman Logan Watkins (3 for 10). Michael Burgess, who the Cubs acquired in the Tom Gorzelanny trade, also takes up residence here and is off to a 2 for 12 start.
On the pitching side, Brett Wallach, who was acquired in the Ted Lilly trade last season, was roughed up in his first start (4.1 IP, 6 runs/3 ER). Aaron Kurcz, who also received votes in the composite top 10 list, gave up 3 ER in 5 IP in his lone start.
Also keep an eye on Dae-Eun Rhee, who is in his first full year after Tommy John surgery in 2009. He's looked good so far (4 K's in 3.2 IP). Jeffrey Beliveau should garner some attention as well, as his 3 K's in 1.1 IP so far can attest.
Peoria Chiefs
The Chiefs feature 2010 first round pick Hayden Simpson, who finally made his minor league debut and is off to an excellent start, striking out 7 in 3.2 IP.
Matt Szczur, who Phil Rogers thinks could be the Cubs next great center fielder, is also stationed here. He has gone 3 for 8 so far this season.
The team also features 2009 third round pick Austin Kirk and Northwestern alum Eric Jokisch.
Rookie Ball
Notably absent from the above is 2010 second round pick Reggie Golden. Golden played just 4 games for the rookie Arizona League Cubs after signing late last year and will likely either return there or be assigned to short-season Boise.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
James Russell or Thomas Diamond to fill void in rotation
I know what you're saying "Pitching depth is suppose to be a Cubs' strength this season, so much so that the Cubs were able to release last year's surprise starter, Carlos Silva, without blinking an eye. Is this really the best they can come up with?"
Yes, it is. For now. James Russell and Thomas Diamond appear to be the best options to fill the remaining starting rotation spot, with one of them likely getting the start next Tuesday. Russell, who was stretched out during the spring and Diamond, who starts Iowa's opener today and will be on his normal 5 days rest next Tuesday, are the most viable options at this time.
Pitchers like Chris Carpenter and Jay Jackson have more upside than either Russell or Diamond. However, Carpenter has been converted to a reliever and Jackson is in extended Spring Training, as he recovers from an injury.
Other pitchers, such as top pitching prospect, Trey McNutt, still need more time to develop. I wouldn't expect to see McNutt until September, at the earliest.
Casey Coleman will fill in for Cashner against Milwaukee on Sunday and the Cubs will likely make a decision by Monday as to who will take Wells' spot.
Personally, I would like to see Diamond get another shot.
Yes, it is. For now. James Russell and Thomas Diamond appear to be the best options to fill the remaining starting rotation spot, with one of them likely getting the start next Tuesday. Russell, who was stretched out during the spring and Diamond, who starts Iowa's opener today and will be on his normal 5 days rest next Tuesday, are the most viable options at this time.
Pitchers like Chris Carpenter and Jay Jackson have more upside than either Russell or Diamond. However, Carpenter has been converted to a reliever and Jackson is in extended Spring Training, as he recovers from an injury.
Other pitchers, such as top pitching prospect, Trey McNutt, still need more time to develop. I wouldn't expect to see McNutt until September, at the earliest.
Casey Coleman will fill in for Cashner against Milwaukee on Sunday and the Cubs will likely make a decision by Monday as to who will take Wells' spot.
Personally, I would like to see Diamond get another shot.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner both heading to the DL
When it rains, it pours....
Gordon Wittenmyer tweeted recently that both Randy Wells (forearm) and Andrew Cashner (shoulder) are heading to the DL. Casey Coleman is expected to replace one of them in the rotation, while the other replacement has yet to be determined.
It is also unclear how long Wells and Cashner will be out. Jim Hendry stressed that Wells' injury was the forearm and not the elbow, but sometimes the two can be related. Cashner's injury was labeled as a "mild strain" in his rotator cuff, which gives hope that he could return when his 15 days are up.
Thus, the Cubs pitching depth is going to be tested early. I would like to see either Jay Jackson or Chris Carpenter get the call, but I have a feeling the Cubs will give Thomas Diamond another try.
Stay tuned for more....
Gordon Wittenmyer tweeted recently that both Randy Wells (forearm) and Andrew Cashner (shoulder) are heading to the DL. Casey Coleman is expected to replace one of them in the rotation, while the other replacement has yet to be determined.
It is also unclear how long Wells and Cashner will be out. Jim Hendry stressed that Wells' injury was the forearm and not the elbow, but sometimes the two can be related. Cashner's injury was labeled as a "mild strain" in his rotator cuff, which gives hope that he could return when his 15 days are up.
Thus, the Cubs pitching depth is going to be tested early. I would like to see either Jay Jackson or Chris Carpenter get the call, but I have a feeling the Cubs will give Thomas Diamond another try.
Stay tuned for more....
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Cubs fans hold their breath as Andrew Cashner goes for MRI
Andrew Cashner pitched well today in his major league debut as a starter, lasting 5.1 IP and giving up only 1 run. However, the big news is that he had to leave early due to "shoulder tightness". He was taken to Northwestern Memorial Hospital for an MRI.
Everyone will cross their fingers and wait for the results. (Here's hoping that its just tendinitis or something else benign and that he'll be back soon after a little rest).
If he has to miss any time, I would expect Casey Coleman to get the call to fill in for Cashner.
As for today's game, Cashner was brilliant while he lasted, inducing 9 groundouts and striking out 2. He left with a 4-1 lead.
Of course, Jeff Samardzija then proceeded to walk everyone in sight and the lead quickly evaporated in the top of the 7th. However, the Cubs showed some resiliency by scoring 2 runs in the bottom of the 7th to retake the lead.
Sean Marshall was a little shaky, giving up a run in the 9th, but still managed to get the save while Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol got the day off.
With the win, the Cubs evened their record at 2-2 and will look to build on that as Ryan Dempster squares off against Armando "he stole my no-hitter" Galarraga tomorrow afternoon.
Everyone will cross their fingers and wait for the results. (Here's hoping that its just tendinitis or something else benign and that he'll be back soon after a little rest).
If he has to miss any time, I would expect Casey Coleman to get the call to fill in for Cashner.
As for today's game, Cashner was brilliant while he lasted, inducing 9 groundouts and striking out 2. He left with a 4-1 lead.
Of course, Jeff Samardzija then proceeded to walk everyone in sight and the lead quickly evaporated in the top of the 7th. However, the Cubs showed some resiliency by scoring 2 runs in the bottom of the 7th to retake the lead.
Sean Marshall was a little shaky, giving up a run in the 9th, but still managed to get the save while Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol got the day off.
With the win, the Cubs evened their record at 2-2 and will look to build on that as Ryan Dempster squares off against Armando "he stole my no-hitter" Galarraga tomorrow afternoon.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Minor League Monday: Grading the Cubs first round picks from 2000-2004
Last week I took a look at the Cubs first round picks from 2005 to 2009 and noted that in 3 of the 5 years the Cubs did well with their pick. Someone suggested that I take a look at 2000-2004 and see if the results are different. Jim Hendry was promoted to GM in July 2002. Prior to that, he was the Director of Player Development, in charge of both scouting and minor league operations from 1995 to 2001, so he would have had a significant role in the 2000 and 2001 drafts. In addition, in his role as Assistant GM (from October 2001 to July 2002), he also would have had some input for the 2002 draft.
2000 - Luis Montanez (3rd overall)
What might-have-been: Chase Utley (15th), Adam Wainwright (29th)
Montanez was suppose to be a power-hitting middle infielder, but never panned out with the Cubs. He stayed in the Cubs organization until 2006 when he became a minor league free agent and singed with the Orioles. He has played sporadically with the Orioles the last 3 years, compiling a .223/.257/.323 line.
Utley turned out to be the power-hitting middle infielder the Cubs were looking for and Wainwright has become the Cardinals ace (although Tommy John surgery knocked him out before the start of this year). Thus, out of the 27 picks after the Cubs, only 2 players have become All Stars (which shows how much of a crap shoot the draft really is).
Grade: F
2001 - Mark Prior (2nd overall)
What might-have-been: Mark Texeira (5th), David Wright (38th, 1st round supplemental)
For 1 1/2 seasons, from 2002-2003, the Cubs appeared to have picked the best player in the draft. Prior was absolutely dominating in 2003, with a 179 ERA+, and almost led the Cubs to the promised land. Unfortunately that was the peak of Prior's career. A series of injuries have derailed his once promising future and, although he is still lingering around, he is a shell of his former self.
Texeira now looks like the best player taken in the first round and he and Wright would both look good in a Cubs uniform. However, if Prior had somehow led the Cubs to a World Series title in 2003, no one would have cared so much about his subsequent injuries.
Grade: C
2002 - Bobby Brownlie (21st overall)
What might-have-been: Matt Cain (25th), Joe Blanton (24th), Jeff Francoeur (23rd)
Brownlie could never make it past AAA and was last seen pitching in Newark of the Independent League back in 2009. Matt Cain is one of the 4 aces that led the Giants to the World Series title in 2010. Blanton and Francouer are nothing special, but at least they made it to the majors and have had some success.
Grade: F
2003 - Ryan Harvey (6th overall)
What might-have-been: Chad Billingsley (24th), Carlos Quentin (29th), Nick Markakis (7th), Ian Stewart (10th), Conor Jackson (19th)
As you can see, there was a lot of talent available in the 2003 draft. Unfortunately the Cubs couldn't find any of it. Harvey was a power hitting outfield prospect who never could make consistent enough contact. He played at AA in the Rockies organization last year and hit .213/.267/.402.
Although none of the players taken after Harvey have been consistent All Stars, they have all put together solid major league careers to date.
Grade: F
2004 - No Pick
What might-have-been: Phil Hughes (23rd), Blake DeWitt (28th)
The Cubs lost their 2004 first round pick for signing LaTroy Hawkins as a free agent (I think). The Twins, who selected in the Cubs 22nd spot, picked Glen Perkins, who hasn't shown much in the minors.
Phil Hughes was the best player taken after that spot and he pitched well in 2008 and 2009 before missing most of 2010 with an injury. Blake DeWitt was also taken after the Cubs' spot, so I guess we could have gotten him for free.
Grade: F
So, out of the five picks, only one has had any impact on the Cubs and that was only for a few years. Thus, one could say that all of the Cubs first round picks from 2000-2004 were pretty much busts. But, as last week showed, at least the Cubs are getting better.
2000 - Luis Montanez (3rd overall)
What might-have-been: Chase Utley (15th), Adam Wainwright (29th)
Montanez was suppose to be a power-hitting middle infielder, but never panned out with the Cubs. He stayed in the Cubs organization until 2006 when he became a minor league free agent and singed with the Orioles. He has played sporadically with the Orioles the last 3 years, compiling a .223/.257/.323 line.
Utley turned out to be the power-hitting middle infielder the Cubs were looking for and Wainwright has become the Cardinals ace (although Tommy John surgery knocked him out before the start of this year). Thus, out of the 27 picks after the Cubs, only 2 players have become All Stars (which shows how much of a crap shoot the draft really is).
Grade: F
2001 - Mark Prior (2nd overall)
What might-have-been: Mark Texeira (5th), David Wright (38th, 1st round supplemental)
For 1 1/2 seasons, from 2002-2003, the Cubs appeared to have picked the best player in the draft. Prior was absolutely dominating in 2003, with a 179 ERA+, and almost led the Cubs to the promised land. Unfortunately that was the peak of Prior's career. A series of injuries have derailed his once promising future and, although he is still lingering around, he is a shell of his former self.
Texeira now looks like the best player taken in the first round and he and Wright would both look good in a Cubs uniform. However, if Prior had somehow led the Cubs to a World Series title in 2003, no one would have cared so much about his subsequent injuries.
Grade: C
2002 - Bobby Brownlie (21st overall)
What might-have-been: Matt Cain (25th), Joe Blanton (24th), Jeff Francoeur (23rd)
Brownlie could never make it past AAA and was last seen pitching in Newark of the Independent League back in 2009. Matt Cain is one of the 4 aces that led the Giants to the World Series title in 2010. Blanton and Francouer are nothing special, but at least they made it to the majors and have had some success.
Grade: F
2003 - Ryan Harvey (6th overall)
What might-have-been: Chad Billingsley (24th), Carlos Quentin (29th), Nick Markakis (7th), Ian Stewart (10th), Conor Jackson (19th)
As you can see, there was a lot of talent available in the 2003 draft. Unfortunately the Cubs couldn't find any of it. Harvey was a power hitting outfield prospect who never could make consistent enough contact. He played at AA in the Rockies organization last year and hit .213/.267/.402.
Although none of the players taken after Harvey have been consistent All Stars, they have all put together solid major league careers to date.
Grade: F
2004 - No Pick
What might-have-been: Phil Hughes (23rd), Blake DeWitt (28th)
The Cubs lost their 2004 first round pick for signing LaTroy Hawkins as a free agent (I think). The Twins, who selected in the Cubs 22nd spot, picked Glen Perkins, who hasn't shown much in the minors.
Phil Hughes was the best player taken after that spot and he pitched well in 2008 and 2009 before missing most of 2010 with an injury. Blake DeWitt was also taken after the Cubs' spot, so I guess we could have gotten him for free.
Grade: F
So, out of the five picks, only one has had any impact on the Cubs and that was only for a few years. Thus, one could say that all of the Cubs first round picks from 2000-2004 were pretty much busts. But, as last week showed, at least the Cubs are getting better.
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