Minor League Monday: 2011 MLB Composite Top 100 Prospects

After the good response to the 2011 Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospects, I've decided to take it a step further and put together a 2011 MLB Composite Top 100 Prospects list.  For this list, I selected 10 Top 100 lists from publications and websites and awarded points to each player ranked, with 100 points for 1st on down to 1 point for 100th.

Also, check out the MLB Composite Top 100 Prospects page, which has links to my spreadsheet and the websites I used.  I would like to particularly thank FantasyRundown.com, which was extremely valuable for this exercise.

So, without further ado, here is the 2011 MLB Composite Top 100 Prospects List:

# Pos Player Team Hi Low Pts

1 of Bryce Harper Was 1 7 993

2 of Mike Trout LA 1 6 986

3 c Jesus Montero NYY 3 7 970

4 of Domonic Brown Phi 2 10 959

5 p Jeremy Hellickson TB 2 19 937

6 p Julio Teheran Atl 2 22 932

7 1B Eric Hosmer KC 3 13 929

8 p Aroldis Chapman Cin 3 23 923

9 2B Dustin Ackley Sea 4 25 903

10 3b Mike Moustakas KC 5 23 893

11 c/of Wil Myers KC 6 34 862

12 of Desmond Jennings TB 9 26 855

13 p Shelby Miller Stl 9 29 839

14 p Matt Moore TB 10 36 830

15 1b Freddie Freeman Atl 12 43 812

16 1b Brandon Belt SF 7 37 810

17 p Michael Pineda Sea 12 56 809

18 p Jameson Taillon Pit 8 66 796

19 p Kyle Drabek Tor 13 35 785

20 ss Manny Machado Bal 14 38 780

21 p Zach Britton Bal 10 52 770

22 p Martin Perez Tex 12 34 767

23 p Mike Montgomery KC 7 54 766

24 p Jacob Turner Det 16 55 764

25 3b Lonnie Chisenhall Cle 17 40 723

26 p Jarrod Parker Ari 11 67 715

27 p John Lamb KC 11 59 683

28 p Tyler Matzek Col 24 64 662

29 p Cris Sale WS 19 75 649

30 p Kyle Gibson Min 24 61 647

31 p Mike Minor Atl 21 61 642

32 1b/of Jonathan Singleton Phi 11 63 634

33 p Manny Banuelos NYY 12 73 631

34 c Wilin Rosario Col 10 69 604

35 of Aaron Hicks Min 10 71 579

36 p Casey Kelly SD 19 78 565

37 p Jordan Lyles Hou 20 77 563

38 of Brett Jackson Chi 16 NR 562

39 2b Jason Kipnis Cle 28 67 561

40 2b Brett Lawrie Tor 27 NR 551

41 ss Nick Franklin Sea 18 66 551

42 3b Miguel Sano Min 29 98 539

43 c Devin Mesoraco Cin 24 72 518

44 ss Jose Iglesias Bos 29 81 513

45 c Gary Sanchez NYY 22 79 512

46 p Chris Archer TB 27 NR 500

47 p Randall Delgado Atl 21 NR 482

48 ss Grant Green Oak 26 NR 460

49 p Simon Castro SD 34 85 446

50 p Alex White Cle 33 NR 440

51 1b Yonder Alonso Cin 15 NR 438

52 2b/ss Jean Segura LAA 32 95 424

53 c Derek Norris Was 33 NR 420

54 p Dellin Betances NYY 32 NR 408

55 c Tony Sanchez Pit 43 93 404

56 p Zack Wheeler SF 35 NR 389

57 ss Jurickson Profar Tex 33 81 389

58 p Drew Pomeranz Cle 40 99 378

59 ss Billy Hamilton Cin 46 NR 375

60 ss Dee Gordon LA 26 NR 370

61 1b Anthony Rizzo SD 38 NR 361

62 p Jarred Cosart Phi 34 NR 352

63 p Tanner Scheppers Tex 15 NR 350

64 1b/of Chris Carter Oak 30 91 320

65 p Danny Duffy KC 22 NR 298

66 p Jenrry Mejia NYM 32 NR 287

67 p Trey McNutt Chi 48 NR 287

68 3b Zack Cox Stl 53 NR 272

69 p Anthony Ranaudo Bos 41 NR 266

70 sp Brody Colvin Phi 48 NR 256

71 3b Nick Castellanos Det 32 NR 254

72 ss Wilmer Flores NY 44 NR 250

73 sp Zach Lee LA 47 NR 250

74 c Travis d'Arnaud Tor 36 NR 246

75 3b Matt Dominguez Fla 55 98 240

76 c Hank Conger LAA 47 NR 236

77 p Arodys Vizcaino Atl 47 NR 235

78 ss Danny Espinosa Was 50 NR 217

79 p Tyler Chatwood LAA 25 NR 216

80 of Nick Weglarz Cle 33 NR 214

81 c Yasmani Grandal Cin 58 NR 200

82 p Tyler Skaggs Ari 61 NR 200

83 p Jake Odorizzi KC 44 NR 197

84 of Ben Revere Min 38 NR 188

85 of Jaff Decker SD 26 NR 172

86 c J.P. Arencibia Tor 38 NR 171

87 p Craig Kimbrel Atl 56 NR 153

88 ss Christian Colon KC 51 NR 150

89 3b Nolan Arenado Col 60 NR 150

90 p Stetson Allie Pit 39 NR 139

91 of Michael Choice Oak 52 NR 137

92 p Jordan Walden LAA 46 NR 131

93 ss Hak-Ju Lee TB 48 NR 131

94 p Matt Harvey NY 48 NR 131

95 of Trayvon Robinson LA 45 NR 130

96 p Chris Dwyer KC 66 NR 127

97 p Jason Knapp Cle 33 NR 127

98 p Jake McGee TB 71 NR 125

99 p Andrew Brackman NYY 60 NR 123

100 3b/ss Brent Morel WS 57 NR 117

(Sorry for the poor formatting, I'm still trying to figure out how to use Google Docs.  For a prettier version, click HERE.)

Some interesting things to note:

• Of the 100 prospects, only 50 were named on each of the 10 lists.
• The 10 lists included 180 different prospects.
• The Kansas City Royals had the most prospects on the list with 9.
• The Milwaukee Brewers were the only team with no prospects on the list.

Anyway, I hope you find the list useful.  I usually put something like this together each year as part of my fantasy baseball draft prep.

Fantasy Friday: The 2 year plan and how I used it to finish 3rd last year

After a successful championship run in 2009 (which you can read about HERE), in which I gutted my team of most of my decent keepers, I headed into the offseason with little hope of contending in 2010.  A series of trades and some carryover players netted me the following keeper list:

Nate Schierholtz $7
Garrett Jones $5
Mike Fontenot $5
Tim Hudson $7
Tom Gorzelanny $2

So, while other teams were heading into the auction with up to 12 keepers, I had 5 and not very impressive at that.  Thus, I decided to employ the 2 year plan, which is basically a variation of the stars and scrubs strategy.   The general rules of the 2 year plan are as follows:

1. Go after some top-tier talent at the auction - These are players that you can trade to contending teams for their keepers.  I decided to go with one big hitter (Matt Holliday for $45) and a big pitcher.  I targeted Roy Halladay as my big pitcher, but dropped out of the bidding after it reached $50 and ended up reallocating that $50 between pitching and hitting.
2. Go after players in their growth years - here you go after guys who may not have reached their full potential yet, but could the following year.  I ended up acquiring Colby Rasmus ($22), Jay Bruce ($29), Kelly Johnson ($21), Ian Desmond ($19), Chase Headley ($18), Jonathan Sanchez ($20), Chris Volstad ($7) and Jason Hammel ($9).  
3. This year's trash could be next year's treasure - the concept here is to go after players who might have little or no value this year, but could be valuable the next year.  I acquired Mat Gamel for $2 (a player without a position), Chris Dickerson for $3 (thinking he would win the leftfield job at some point), Jesus Flores (injured) for $3, Brandon Webb for $13 (injured, but it is a competitive league), and some speculative closers, such as Samuel Gervacio ($2), Evan Meek ($1) and Hong-Chih Kuo ($1).

I then filled out my roster with Cody Ross ($17), Ryan Doumit ($18), Sean Marshall ($2) and Chris Narveson ($1).

My plan was to wait a couple months and trade Holliday and some other players for keepers.  However, a funny thing happened on my way to playing for 2011, my team got off to a hot start and I found myself in the money in early May.  So, not to let an opportunity go to waste, I used my FAAB to acquire Yorvit Torrealba and Roger Bernadina to fill the holes in my roster (the injured Flores and Dickerson) and acquired Jamey Carroll to fill in for the injured Gamel.

However, the biggest moves were two trades I was able to make:  (1) Trading Jay Bruce for Ted Lilly, which helped solidify my pitching staff, and (2) trading Gamel, Webb and Drew Storen (a reserve keeper from 2009) for Joey Votto, Matt Lindstrom and Skip Schumaker.  Votto helped carry my offense all season and Lilly, once he regained his form, teamed with Jonathan Sanchez to give me an excellent one-two punch at the top of my rotation.

The problem though is that, once I made these moves, I was up against our in-season cap and pretty much out of trade bait.  Thus, I was unable to overcome the top two teams (although  I did keep it close up to the end).

So, what did I learn from all this?  That if you play the 2-year plan right, you can still position yourself to be successful in the current year.  But, if things go south early on, you still have the trade chips to acquire the players needed to contend the following year.

Spring Training Battle #1: 5th Outfielder

With Cubs manager Mike Quade recently saying that he sees only two openings on the non-pitching side (one infielder and one outfielder), I figured it was a good time to start my Spring Training Battles series.  Over the next 4 weeks, I will take a look at the battle for 5th outfielder, utility infielder, the rotation and the bullpen, starting this week with the 5th outfielder spot.

The Contenders

Reed Johnson - Johnson, a right handed hitter, would fit nicely on the bench, which already features lefty Kosuke Fukudome.  He is a career .312/.373/.463 hitter against lefties and formed a platoon with Fukudome when he was with the Cubs from 2008-2009.  Plus, he is a fan favorite.  He can play all three outfield spots and is a decent, but not spectacular defender.  He is not currently on the 40-man roster.

Fernando Perez - Perez, who recently returned to switch hitting, after batting righthanded all last year, has good speed and gives Quade another option in the leadoff spot.  In 7 minor league seasons, Perez has hit .279/.362/.387 with 223 SB's.  He has had a couple cups of coffee in the majors, but nothing to write home about (.234/.301/.351 in 94 AB's).  He too can play all 3 outfield spots and he is on the 40-man roster.

The Longshots

Luis Montanez - a former first round pick of the Cubs, Montanez has spent 11 seasons in the minors while only accumulating 251 AB's in the majors.  He is right handed and can play all 3 outfield spots, but is not a particularly strong defender.  He is also a non-roster invitee.

Matt Camp - another non-roster invitee, Camp's calling card is his versatility, as he can play 2B, 3B and all 3 outfield spots.  He is a career .269/.332/.329 hitter in 5 minor league seasons.  His drawback is that he is a left handed hitter and probably doesn't mesh with the current bench.

Brad Snyder - another left handed hitter and former first round pick, Snyder can play all three outfield spots and has good power.  A career .279/.357/.488 hitter in the minors, he has only 27 AB's in the majors. 

Bryan LaHair - LaHair had a great year at AAA in 2010, hitting .308/.385/.557 with 25 HR's in just 422 AB's.  He's left handed and can play left, right or first base.  He also has fared OK in his limited major league experience, hitting .250/.315/.346 in 150 AB's in 2008.

James Adduci - yet another left hander, Adduci can play all 3 outfield spots as well as first base.  He is a career .276/.350/.349 hitter with some speed (112 SB's in 7 minor league seasons).  He has zero major league experience.

Prediction

My guess is that Reed Johnson will win the 5th outfielder spot, as his experience, versatility and ability to hit left handers outweighs Perez' speed and versatility.  Perez will start the year at AAA and will be the first callup if there is an injury.  The others will just serve as depth, in case of emergency. 

NL Central Preview: Chicago Cubs

Team:  Chicago Cubs
Predicted Finish:  4th

Key Additions: Carlos Pena, Matt Garza, Kerry Wood, Reed Johnson, Todd Wellemeyer, Braden Looper, Augie Ojeda, Fernando Perez
Key Subtractions:  Derrek Lee, Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, Tom Gorzelanny, Xavier Nady, Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos

Projected Lineup

1. Blake DeWitt, 2B
2. Starlin Castro, SS
3. Marlon Byrd, CF
4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
5. Carlos Pena, 1B
6. Alfonso Soriano, LF
7. Tyler Colvin, RF
8. Geovany Soto, C
9. pitcher

Starting Rotation

1. Ryan Dempster
2. Carlos Zambrano
3. Matt Garza
4. Randy Wells
5. Carlos Silva

Closer -  Carlos Marmol

2011 Outlook:

The new look Cubs head into the Spring with cautious optimism, after Mike Quade led them to a 24-13 record down the stretch.  Much of the Cubs makeover took place last season with the trades of Derrek Lee, Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot.  Carlos Pena has been added to replace Lee.  Matt Garza replaces Lilly and Blake DeWitt replaces Theriot.  The pitching should be solid, but not spectacular, but the key is the hitting.

Its no secret that the Cubs offense revolves around Aramis Ramirez.  With his injuries in 2009 and his struggles at the start of 2010, the offense suffered.  Its no surprise then that the Cubs two best offensive months in 2010 (July and August, when they averaged 4.8 runs per game) corresponded with Ramirez' two best offensive months.  Ramirez hit .313/.340/.667 in July and .301/.356/.505 in August.  The rest of the cast has not changed significantly, so the Cubs will have to hope for a rebound from Ramirez if they are to have any hopes of contending.

On the pitching side, the acquisition of Matt Garza proves that Jim Hendry is still in "win now" mode (the farm system be damned).  Ryan Dempster finally gets the nod as the Cubs opening day starter, getting the recognition as the Cubs one true Ace.  Carlos Zambrano has stated that his anger issues are behind him, but we'll see if he can build upon his strong second half performance.  As for the rest of the rotation, although I've penciled in Randy Wells and Carlos Silva, there is an open competition amongst those two and several others for the final two spots.  I'm personally hoping that Andrew Cashner wins one spot, as he has the most upside of all the candidates.

Overall Prediction

While Jim Hendry was trying to make over the Cubs under payroll constraints, 3 other teams (the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds) were making significant moves to improve their clubs.  I think the Cubs are improved in general, but not enough to catch those teams.  Look for the Cubs to finish around .500 and in 4th place.

Minor League Monday: The Cubs Non-roster Invitees

Every year teams invite a bunch of players, who are not on the 40-man roster, to Spring Training with the big club.  Some of these players are top prospects who the team wants to get a look at, as well as give them some experience in major league camp.  For the Cubs, prospects Chris Carpenter, Jay Jackson, Trey McNutt, Marquez Smith, Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson are among the non-roster invitees.

However, the majority of the NRI's are AAAA or veteran players whom the team sees as organization depth or possible reserves.  Here is a look at those players for the Cubs and their chances of making the opening day roster:

Angel Guzman - Guzman is still recovering from shoulder surgery and is unlikely to be ready by opening day.  He will probably be sent to AAA where he'll continue his rehab.  If he proves he's healthy (and effective), he could be a mid-season call-up.

Braden Looper/Todd Wellemeyer - Both Looper and Wellemeyer will be competing for the 5th starter job.  If either one of them wins the job, it will be a long season for the Cubs.  Both have experience in the bullpen and could earn the long-reliever spot, but its more likely that they'll be sent to AAA and called upon only in the case of emergency.

Scott Rice - a former first round pick (in 1999) and a career minor leaguer, about the only thing Rice has going for him is that he's left handed.  He has a career minor league ERA of 4.25 and a 4.60 career ERA at AAA.  He will likely spend the season at AAA.

Steve Clevenger/Chris Robinson - a couple of the Cubs catching prospects, Clevenger and Robinson fall behind Koyie Hill and Welington Castillo on the Cubs depth chart.  Unless Hill and Castillo both get injured, its unlikely that we'll be seeing either of these two in the majors this year.

Scott Moore - a first round pick (8th overall) in the 2002 draft, Moore has yet to establish himself at the major league level, with a career line of .223/.270/.370 in 184 AB's.  He has some pop (110 career HR's in 9 minor league seasons), but is unlikely to make the team.

Augie Ojeda - a veteran of 9 major league seasons and a career utility man, Ojeda could compete for the utility role with the Cubs.  He is probably the only true backup shortstop the Cubs have (Darwin Barney is more of a second baseman) and that alone could earn him a spot on the Cubs roster.

Bobby Scales - another utility guy, Scales can play second, third and the outfield.  However, he is behind Barney on the depth chart and will likely spend 2011 in AAA.

James Adduci/Matt Camp - both of these guys are fringe prospects, at best.  They have decent speed, but little power.  Adduci is a corner outfielder and Camp a super-utility guy (having played 2B, 3B, SS and OF).  They could be called upon in case of emergency, but are destined for AAA.

Luis Montanez - a former first round pick of the Cubs, Montantez has seen some major league action (.223/.257/.323 in 251 career AB's).  However, he is likely to spend the season at AAA.

Bryan LaHair/Brad Snyder - both Snyder (.279/.357/.488, 124 HR's in 8 seasons) and LaHair (.290/.356/.480, 121 HR's in 8 seasons) have put up decent numbers in the minors, but have failed to perform at the major league level.  The biggest strike against both of them is that they are both left handed and, with lefty Kosuke Fukudome already on the bench, there is no room for another lefty outfielder.

Which brings us to the best bet to make the major league opening day roster:

Reed Johnson - back for a return engagement with the Cubs, Johnson is the most likely NRI to make the club in 2011.  He hits righthanded, can play all 3 outfield positions and is a career .312/.373/.463 hitter against lefthanders.  In addition, if Tyler Colvin struggles against lefthanders this year, look for Johnson to work his way into a platoon.

Overall, Angel Guzman, Augie Ojeda and Reed Johnson are the non-roster invitees most likely to see any significant playing time with the Cubs in 2011.  Brad Snyder, Bryan LaHair, Steve Clevenger and Chris Robinson are intriguing prospects, but are blocked at the major league level.  No other player is likely to have an impact.

Fantasy Friday: Preparing for the draft

If you're like me, draft day is one of the most exciting and at the same time unnerving days of the year.  You never feel like you are fully prepared and, like a college final exam, try to cram as much knowledge into your brain as possible.  Here are some tips that I have found helpful in preparing for the draft which may help take some of the worry out of the process.

Stay up-to-date on the latest news

As I alluded to in last week's Fantasy Friday installment, it is important to stay on top of the latest news.  Whether its a season-ending injury or a last minute trade, don't be the guy who throws out a player's name in the draft who is in the other league or hurt.  I always make sure that I check out the latest news the night before the draft as well as the morning of the draft (if I have time).

Make a list and check it twice

Whether you are preparing for a straight draft or auction, it is important to have a draft list. 

For a straight draft, this should be a ranking of the pool of players from 1 to 300 (or however deep your league goes into the player pool).  There are various websites that put together lists like this and they can be a good starting point.  But you should make sure you adjust these lists for injuries, changes in role, trades, etc.

You should also put together a list of players ranked by position, which helps you figure out when talent at a specific position is getting scarce and its time for you to draft that position.  You don't want to be stuck with a hole at any position.

For an auction league, you should have a list of available players sorted by highest value to lowest value.  However, I have found that the best tool for an auction league is a listing by position, sorted by highest to lowest value.  From there, you can identify "tiers" of players (i.e. $30-40, $20-30, $10-20, $1-10) and see where the depth of each position lies.  For example, if there is only one third baseman who falls in the $30-40 range, but 5 third baseman in the $20-30 range, then you would want to target the group in the $20-30 range, as the $30-40 player will probably be overbid due to scarcity.  By targeting the 5 players in the $20-30 range, you can probably get one for at or below value, as the other owners will likely drop out of the bidding knowing that there are others available.  However, don't wait until the last player in that group is left or you will have to overbid to get him.

Mock Drafts and Mock Auctions

Another useful tool when preparing for the draft is to check out the various Mock Draft and Mock Auctions sites.  One such site is mockdraftcentral.com.  Also, fatasy sports sites, such as cbssports.com, have their own mock drafts that you can join and participate in.

These sites are useful in that they can give you an early indication as to which players might be over or undervalued.  By comparing the Average Draft Position to your draft list or the Average Auction Value to your auction values, you can find potential bargins for your upcoming draft. 

Depth Charts

Another important and sometimes overlooked tool is the depth chart.  There are various websites that have depth charts for each team, including Rotoworld, CBSsports and Rototimes.  Depth charts are important, esepcially in deep leagues, as it gives you insight into who the backups are in case of injury.

However, even with all these sites available, I find it more useful to put together my own depth chart.  The main difference between my depth chart and theirs is that mine includes each players' contract status (how long they are signed for or under team control) and minor leaguers who could replace them. 

This last two points are important, for two reasons.  First, if a player is in the last year of his contract with his team, there is a possibility that he could be traded in July, if that team is out of contention.  This could mean a change in roll (for example, a closer who is traded to a team that already has a closer and therefore becomes the setup man) or a loss of stats (if you are in a NL or AL only league that doesn't count stats from players traded to the other league).  Second, if that player has been traded, it usually means that the team trading him is going to give the prospect a chance at that position and you want to be the team that has that prospect on its reserve roster.

Prospect Lists

Seems like everyone and their brother has a prospect list.  I recently discovered a website that provides links to all the prospects lists on the web (Fantasy Rundown), which has proved invaluable to my draft preparation.

If you are in a keeper league or dynasty league, you already know the importance of scouting minor leaguers to find the next big star.  Many times minor leaguers can be the difference between a successful season or a dissappointing one.  For example, one team in my league went into last year's draft with Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg and Michael Stanton on his reserve roster.  He finished second (and would have won if Strasburg had not gotten hurt).

One thing to keep in mind though is that it is not just talent, but also opportunity that plays a role here.  A player like Yonder Alonso of the Reds has plenty of talent, but he doesn't do you much good stuck at AAA behind Joey Votto.  If you're choosing between two minor leaguers ranked about the same, select the player who has the better opportunity for playing time (here's where that depth chart comes in handy).

On the other hand, don't get too caught up on the opportunity aspect that you pass on a high ranked prospect for a lower one with better opportunity. If a player is good enough, the team will make room for him.

Overall

There are a lot of good resources on the web to help you prepare for your draft.  Hopefully the tips above will help give you an edge over the competition and allow you to dominate your draft.

NL Central Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

Team:  Pittsburgh Pirates
Predicted Finish:  5th

Key Additions: Kevin Correia, Lyle Overbay, Matt Diaz, Scott Olsen, Garrett Atkins, Joe Beimel
Key Subtractions:  Zach Duke, Lastings Milledge, Andy LaRoche, Delwyn Young, Chan Ho Park
Projected Lineup

1. Andrew McCutchen, CF
2. Jose Tabata, LF
3. Neil Walker, 2B
4. Pedro Alvarez, 3B
5. Garret Jones/Matt Diaz, RF
6. Lyle Overbay, 1B
7. Ronny Cedeno, SS
8. Chris Snyder/Ryan Doumit, C
9. pitcher

Starting Rotation

1. Paul Maholm
2. Ross Ohlendorf
3. James McDonald
4. Kevin Correia
5. Scott Olsen

Closer - Joel Hanrahan

2011 Outlook:

The Pirates have been in rebuilding mode seemingly forever and set a record for the most consecutive losing seasons (18), however it appears that those efforts are finally starting to pay off.  Former first round picks Neil Walker (2004), Andrew McCutchen (2005) and Pedro Alvarez (2008), along with 2008 acquisition Jose Tabata (acquired from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady trade) form a good, young nucleus of players to build around.  In addition, 2010 first rounder Jameson Taillon and 2009 first rounder Tony Sanchez are the top two prospects in the Pirates organization, according to Baseball America.  Put it all together and the future is finally starting to look bright for the Pirates.  The problem is the future is not 2011, as the Pirates still have holes in their lineup and rotation.

The Pirates offense was dead last in the NL in runs scored in 2010 with just 587 (3.6 per game) and other than swapping out Lastings Milledge for Lyle Overbay, not much has changed.  The hope for the Pirates offense is that the youngsters will continue to improve and give the offense a boost.  The free agent signings of Overbay and Diaz appear to be just stop gap measures, as Overbay was signed to just a one year deal and Diaz two years.  If the Pirates fail to contend, as is likely, Overbay could be traded at the July deadline. 

On the pitching side, the Pirates appear to have gotten a steal in James McDonald, who posted a 3.52 ERA with 61 K's in 64 IP, after being acquired from the Dodgers for Octavio Dotel.  However, he is going to need some help if the Pirates are going to improve on their last place finish in team ERA (5.00) in 2010.  Kevin Correia is a good, cheap acquisition and Scott Olsen will eat some innings, if healthy, but neither of them are high quality pitchers and both could be gone by the trade deadline. 

If the pitching staff is going to improve, the Pirates will be counting on minor leaguers Bryan Morris (6th on the Pirates Top 10 Prospects list by Baseball America), Rudy Owens (7th) and Jeff Locke (8th), as well as former 2006 first rounder Brad Lincoln to step up.  Morris and Owens should start the year in AAA and Locke in AA, while Lincoln could push for a spot in the 2011 rotation. 

Overall Prediction

The Pirates are heading in the right direction, but are still a couple years away from putting it all together.  They should have enough to escape the cellar, in part thanks to an awful Astros team, but do not have enough to contend for the Central title. 

With an improving farm system, the top pick in the 2011 draft and their best pitching prospects (Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and Luis Heredia) 2-3 years away, the Pirates could be making some noise in 2013 and 2014.  However, for 2011, they will continue to live in the second division and will probably push the record for most consecutive losing seasons to 19.

Could the Carlos Marmol contract come back to haunt the Cubs?

Ah the life of a Major League GM.  You basically get to play fantasy baseball will real players and other people's money.  The only drawback is that you have people like me scrutinizing your every move.

Take the recent Carlos Marmol signing.  On the face of it, its a pretty good deal for the Cubs and Marmol.  The Cubs signed Marmol to a 3 year, $20 million deal, effectively locking him up through his arbitration years.  Marmol gets $3.2 million in 2011, $7 million in 2012 and $9.8 million in 2013.  He could have easily made more in arbitration in any of those years.  Thus, the Cubs get cost certainty and Marmol gets financial security. 

However, there are two things that make me nervous about this deal.

First, every year it appears that Marmol is one hiccup away from developing full-on Steve Blass disease.  Just two years ago, he gave up 65 walks in just 74 IP (7.9 BB/9).  In 2010, he cut down on the walks, giving up "only" 52 in 77.2 IP (6.0 BB/9).  He is an ulcer-generator for his managers, but to his credit, he doesn't give up a lot of hits (5.5 H/9 for his career) or HR's (career 0.7 HR/9, including 0.1 and 0.2 in 2010 and 2009, respectively), and he strikes out a ton of hitters (16.0 K/9 in 2010 and 11.7 K/9 for his career), thus limiting the damage.  He is the right handed version of former Cubs and Phillies closer Mitch Williams and, as we saw with Williams, these type of pitchers can fall apart in a hurry (Williams was washed up at 29).

The second thing that concerns me is the injury bug.  Marmol has been relatively healthy since his debut in 2006, but as we saw with Angel Guzman and John Grabow, that can change in a hurry.  According to a Baseball Prospectus article, in the 2002 and 2003 seasons, 75 of the nearly 700 pitchers who appeared in the majors had Tommy John surgery.  That's about 1 in 9 pitchers.  In addition, if a torn elbow ligament doesn't get you, you can still be struck down by shoulder issues (as Guzman knows).  The truth is that pitching is an unnatural act and the more you pitch the more likely you will develop some kind of injury.

The bottom line is that, whenever you sign a pitcher to a long-term deal, you are taking a gamble.  Whether it be an injury or lack of effectiveness, something can and usually does go wrong.  Thus, if I had to choose, I would rather sign pitchers who are eligible for arbitration on a year by year basis (no long-term deals).  Once they are eligible for free agency, I would only sign them to a long-term contract (no more than 5 years), if they have proven to be effective and durable.

Then again, even with those precautions, you could still end up with another Carlos Zambrano.

Minor League Monday: Cubs Sleeper Prospects

Every year it seems that a few prospects come out of nowhere and have a breakout year that shoots them up the organization's depth chart.  In 2010, Brandon Guyer was that type of player, entering the season unranked amongst the Cubs top 30 prospects (by Baseball America), before hitting .344/.398/.588 and ending up as a consensus top 10 Cubs prospect (before the trade).

Here are some players who I think are on the verge of putting it together and could make that leap this year:

Jae-Hoon Ha, RF, Peoria - Ha had a nice slash line of .317/.334/.468 at Peoria in 2010, leading the team in average.  He needs to learn to be more patient (just 16 walks in 541 career ABs), but at 20 years old, he has time on his side.

Jeff Beliveau, LHP, Daytona - Beliveau was downright nasty at two levels in 2010, recording a 2.66 ERA with 97 K's in just 64.1 IP.  He needs to cut down on the walks (career 4.7 BB/9 IP), but his career 12.2 K/9 IP speaks volumes.  Oh, and did I mention he's lefthanded.  He could work his way into the Cubs pen by season end.

Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Daytona - listed as the Cubs 12th best prospect by Baseball America heading into the 2010 season, Rhee struggled to regain his form after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2009.  However, as it usually take pitchers 18 months to fully recover from TJS, I am expecting better things from Rhee in 2011.

Tony Campana, CF, Tennessee - listed at 5'8" and 160 lbs., Campana is the epitome of a slap hitter.  However, he has speed to burn, with 48 SB's in 2010, after stealing 66 in 2009.  He hit 319/.378/.384 in 2010 and could be this year's version of Brandon Guyer.

Charles Thomas, RHP, Rookie League - the Cubs have had success with converting hitters into pitchers and Thomas is the latest experiment.  Thomas started his career as a corner infielder, but after hitting .244/.297/.357 in two seasons, the Cubs moved him to the bullpen.  Some reports have him throwing in the upper 90's with a decent splitter and a slider.

There are some of my picks to click in 2011.  I think maybe 1-2 of these guys could move into the Top 10 prospects list before the year is out.

What to keep an eye on this Spring for the Cubs.

Pitchers and catcher report.  Each year I hear that phrase, its music to my ears.  While I follow the Bears and the Illini Basketball teams, I'm more of a casual fan, but when it comes to baseball I am a true fanatic.

So, with the Cubs pitchers and catchers reporting yesterday, here are my 5 things to keep an eye on this Spring for the Cubs:

1. Spring Training Battles - The 4th and 5th spot in the rotation appear to be the biggest battles this Spring, but there will also be competition for the second base job, right field, the bullpen and the bench.  Randy Wells and Carlos Silva are the incumbents in the rotation, but should see competition from Casey Coleman, Andrew Cashner, James Russell, as well as Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer.  At second, Blake DeWitt seems to have the inside track, but Darwin Barney is not going to go down without a fight.  The left field job is Tyler Colvin's to lose, but Kosuke Fukudome is also in the picture.  Finally, there are a host of candidates for the bullpen and bench that have to be sorted out before opening day.
2. Aramis Ramirez - After his struggles at the beginning of last year, I'm sure that everyone will be watching Ramirez intently to see if he can bounce back.  After hitting just .207/.268/.380 in the first half, he came back to hit .276/.321/.526 after the All-Star game.  If he can carry that over to this year, it would certainly help to boost the Cubs offense.
3. Carlos Zambrano - Zambrano looked like the ace of old down the stretch, however I am not convinced that he has regained his stuff.  His velocity is still down from his heyday and perhaps he is finally accepting that and reinventing himself, but I still want to see more before I am convinced.
4. The Lineup - The Cubs have several hitters (Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Marlon Byrd, Tyler Colvin, Carlos Pena and Alfonso Soriano) who can all hit in the .270-.280 range with 20+ homeruns.  I am curious as to how Mike Quade will line them up.
5. Leadoff - I alluded to this in an earlier article, but every Cub fan knows that the Cubs lack a true leadoff hitter.  When Quade took over the team late in the season, he seemed to mix and match at the leadoff spot.  I'm curious whether he will continue this trend or if he will pick one guy and stick with him.

I will keep an eye on all of these things this spring and give my take on them, including a series of articles on the Spring Training Battles.  It should be an interesting spring.

Fantasy Friday: Sifting through the Spring Training Noise

Welcome to the first installment of Fantasy Friday here at CBGB.  A vehicle for me to write about the game I love.  For those of you who might be wondering what qualifies me to write about fantasy baseball, this will be my 15th year of fantasy baseball.  During that time, I have participated in a highly competitive, NL only, 5X5 auction league in which I have consistently finished "in the money", including one championship.  I have also participated in various other leagues and formats over the years.  I don't claim to be an expect and some of the "wisdom" I will share in this feature may be old hat for you more experienced owners, but hopefully I will be able to provide you with some tips that will be useful for your league.

With that said, let's get to it.

Spring Training is a few days away and along with it comes an abundance of information.  This is truly the information age as fantasy players have numerous sources of information on the net, from fantasy websites down to local papers, to gather the latest info on players and teams.  There are various types of information that come out during spring training, lets look at some of them and how you should interpret them.

Health News

There are two types of stories that fall into this category, the "I'm in the best shape of my life" story and injury news. 

The first type of story is pretty irrelevant.  Each year you will hear of players who are "in the best shape of their lives" or who have dropped so much weight, etc.  For example, we are already hearing reports that C.C. Sabathia has lost 30 pounds.  Well, good for him.  It doesn't change much though.  He was already an ace and will still be an ace.  Don't overbid based on these types of reports as you will likely be disappointed.

Conversely, if a player has gained weight (not muscle), then you should be concerned.  A prime example is Pablo Sandoval last year, his performance was affected so much by his weight that the San Francisco Giants threatened to send him to the minors this year if he didn't get in shape (for the record he is apparently following their orders).

As far as injury news is concerned, you should pay close attention to any injury reports.  Minor sprains and strains shouldn't be a cause for concern, but if a pitcher is experiencing shoulder or elbow pain, watch out.  Another type of injury to watch out for with pitchers is when a pitcher complains of forearm pain, as this often is a precursor of elbow problems (and eventually Tommy John surgery).  It may not be immediate and it may not happen in every case, but you would be surprised at how many pitchers fall into this category.

Predictions

Every spring there are players who will make bold predictions for the coming season.  You will hear such things as "I am going to steal 50 bases this year" or "I'm going to hit 40 home runs".  These can all be taken with a grain of salt, as Cubs fans will tell you.  Many of us still remember when Carlos Zambrano, back in March 2007, predicted he would win the Cy Young award and the Cubs would win the World Series.

I wouldn't pay much attention to these kind of predictions from players as they rarely come true. 

Manager Comments

Here's where you need to pay more attention.  Sometimes it can be something as seemingly unimportant as a manager saying he is impressed with a youngster or praising their performances that can clue you in on a potential sleeper.  For example, last spring, Braves manager Bobby Cox praised young relievers Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters.  Both of whom ended up having fine debuts with the Braves and are now in competition for the closer role.

Another example, from my own personal experience, happened back when Chris Carpenter joined the Cardinals in 2004.  I remember reading an article where Tony LaRussa or Dave Duncan commented on how good Carpenter's stuff looked and used that tidbit as the basis to take a chance on Carpenter for $2 in the auction.  Needless to say, that was one of my better moves.

Also, pay attention to what managers say regarding strategy.  Last spring, Padres manager Bud Black promised that the Padres would be more agressive on the basepaths.  He backed it up too, as the Padres as a team attempted more stolen bases in 2010 (174) than in 2009 (111), giving a few players a boost in value, such as Yorvit Torrealba (7 SB's in 2010 vs. 1 in 2009), Chase Headley (17 vs 10) and David Eckstein (8 vs. 3).

Box Scores

During the first half of the spring games, it is difficult to look at the box scores from the games and gather any meaningful information from them, as managers are experimenting with different lineups, taking a look at some prospects or splitting up their roster for split squad games.  However, during the last week or so, you should pay attention as that is when managers usually trot out their starters.

If you review the lineups during the last week of spring, you will probably see the lineup that the manager will be using for the regular season.  This is important as players' value can be affected based on their spot in the lineup, e.g. a guy hitting cleanup will have more RBI opportunities that a guy hitting 8th.

In addition, it should go without saying that spring stats are pretty much meaningless.  For example, most managers will pitch their closers early in a game to make sure they get their work in and therefore someone else usually ends up getting the save.  Thus, you can have a guy lead the league in saves in Spring Training and never get one during the regular season. 

Overall

There is a lot of information available to sift through during Spring Training, some of it meaningful, some of it garbage.  The key thing is to find that one piece of information that might differentiate a player from another option (especially when it comes down to the end-game) and gives you the best chance to find a potential breakout candidate.

Could Albert Pujos be in the cards for the Cubs?

What once seemed impossible is looking more and more possible.

It appears that Albert Pujols and the Cardinals are at an impasse in their negotiations, with the latest report from John Heyman (via Twitter) saying there is "virtually no chance" that they reach an agreement by the February 16 deadline.

If true, then the stars could be lining up for the Cubs to make a big splash next offseason.

How so?  Let's count the ways:

1. The Cubs will have lots of money to spend.  With the contracts of Aramis Ramirez ($14.6 million), Kosuke Fukudome ($14.5 million), Carlos Silva ($12.75 million), John Grabow ($4.8 million) and Jeff Samardzija ($3.5 million) all coming off the books, Jim Hendry will have the payroll flexibility to go after any player he wants.
2. The Yankees and Red Sox probably won't bid.  Both the Yankees (Mark Teixeira, signed through 2016) and the Red Sox (Adrian Gonzalez, who will likely be signed to an extension before opening day) have their first basemen in place.  This likely takes the two biggest spenders in baseball out of the equation (although they could still sign Pujols and use him as a DH).
3. The Cubs will have an opening at first.  Carlos Pena was signed to a one year deal, likely with Jim Hendry keeping an eye on the contract situations with both Pujols and Milwaukee's Prince Fielder.  If Pujols hits free agency, the Cubs would have no problem letting Pena walk in favor of Pujols.
4. Marketing.  Pujols is already one of the best known players in baseball, despite working in a small media market.  Imagine what the Chicago media machine could do for him.
5. The Cubs need a spark.   The last couple years have been a downer for Cubs fans and this year looks like it will be more of the same.  With attendance waning, Hendry may look for a big box office draw like Pujols to spark fans interest again.  Plus, El Hombre would instantly make the Cubs a contender.

Put it all together and it has the makings of a fairy tale, happily ever after kind of story for the Cubs.  We just have to wait 7 days to see if our dreams really could come true.

NL Central Preview: Houston Astros

Team:  Houston Astros
Predicted Finish:  6th

Key Additions:  J.A. Happ, Bill Hall, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Clint Barmes
Key Subtractions:  Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Matt Lindstrom, Geoff Blum, Brian Moehler

Projected Lineup

1. Michael Bourn, CF
2. Clint Barmes, SS
3. Hunter Pence, RF
4. Carlos Lee, 1B/LF
5. Chris Johnson, 3B
6. Bill Hall, 2B
7. Brian Bogusevic/Brett Wallace, LF/1B
8. Humberto Quintero/Jason Castro, C
9. Pitcher

Starting Rotation

1. Brett Myers
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. J.A. Happ
4. Bud Norris
5. Ryan Rowland-Smith/Jordan Lyles

Closer - Brandon Lyon

2011 Outlook:

The Astros are in the midst of a rebuilding project that started at last year's trade deadline.  Gone is ace Roy Oswalt, who was traded to the Phillies for J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose (who was then traded for first base prospect Brett Wallace) and prospect Jonathan Villar.  Also traded at last year's deadline was former Killer B, Lance Berkman. 

The Astros will be trying to rebuild an offense than finished 15th in the NL in runs scored, with 611 (only Pittsburgh scored fewer runs at 587).  Bill Hall was signed to provide some pop at second base and the Astros acquired Clint Barmes from Colorado to play short.  While they may be mild upgrades over the players they are replacing (Jeff Keppinger and Tommy Manzella), the Astros offense will again struggle to score runs in 2011. 

On the pitching side, the Astros have a decent rotation of Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, J.A. Happ, Bud Norris and Ryan Rowland-Smith.  Wandy bounced back from a rough first half of 2010 to post an overall 3.60 ERA, while Myers emerged as the Astros de-facto ace, going 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA.  Happ has proven to be a quality pitcher, when healthy.  Norris had an up-and-down rookie season and, if he learns to control his stuff (4.5 BB/9IP), he could be a breakout candidate.  Rowland-Smith had a rough 2010 season, but should benefit from the move to the NL.  He will compete with top prospect Jordan Lyles for the 5th starter job, however, my guess is that the Astros will play the Super-Two game and keep Lyles in the minors until late May or early June.

In the bullpen, former closer Matt Lindstrom is gone, solidifying Brandon Lyon as the Astros' closer after taking over mid-season 2010.  Beyond Lyon, there is not too much to be excited about.  Wilton Lopez pitched well in relief in 2010 and Mark Melancon pitched well after being acquired in the Lance Berkman trade, but beyond them the bullpen has a lot of holes.

Overall Prediction

After finishing the 2010 season in 4th place, one game ahead of the Cubs and one behind the Brewers, the Astros figure to take a step back in 2011.  The Brewers and Cubs have improved their teams this offseason, while the Astros are in the midst of a roster makeover.  With the Pirates youth movement starting to take hold, the Astros will be hard pressed to escape the cellar in 2011.