Heading into the offseason, Jim Hendry said that the Cubs could contend with just 3 or 4 moves. Well, Hendry has made his 3 or 4 moves and, combined with the emergence of Tyler Colvin and Starlin Castro last year, the 2011 Cubs roster will look a lot different that the 2010 version. But will it be better?
Let's take a look at the key differences and see if the Cubs really have improved (at least on paper):
First Base - The Cubs effectively swapped Derrek Lee for Carlos Pena. Before he was traded to Atlanta, Lee hit .251/.335/.416 with the Cubs versus Pena's .196/.325/.407. Despite Pena's atrocious average, he and Lee posted similar OPS' (.732 for Pena, .752 for Lee) as well as OPS+ (102 for Pena versus Lee's 95 with the Cubs). Digging deeper into the numbers, Pena posted a better WAR than Lee in 2010 (1.1 versus 0.8) as well as over the last 4 years (11.1 versus 8.3). I think that Lee was a far better player than Pena, in his prime, but recent history and Pena's age (32 versus Lee, 35) gives the edge to Pena.
EDGE: 2011
Second Base - Here the Cubs are replacing Mike Fontenot, the lefthanded hitter in the platoon with Jeff Baker, with a new lefthanded hitter, Blake DeWitt. In 169 AB's with the Cubs, before he was traded, Fontenot hit .284/.332/.402. In 184 AB's with the Cubs, after coming over in the Ted Lilly trade, DeWitt hit .250/.314/.375. For their (brief) careers, Fontenot has an OPS of .749, a OPS+ of 92 and a career WAR of 2.8 (with the Cubs). DeWitt boasts a career OPS of .713, OPS of 91 and a career WAR of 3.1 (in two fewer years than Fontenot). Neither player has a clear edge here, so I will call it a tie.
EDGE: PUSH
Shortstop - Starlin Castro replaced Ryan Theriot at short early in the season, with Theriot moving to second, before eventually being traded. In his first season with the Cubs, Castro hit .300/.347/.408, giving him a OPS of .755, OPS+ of 97 and a WAR of 0.4. For his career, Theriot hit .287/.350/.362 with the Cubs, with an OPS of .712, an OPS+ of 83 and a WAR of 5.0 (-0.7 for 2010). Theriot has moved on to the Cardinals and the Cubs are a better team without him.
EDGE: 2011
Right Field - Here Tyler Colvin is replacing 2010 opening day starter Kosuke Fukudome. Colvin hit .254/.316/.500 in 2010, whereas Fukudome has a career line of .259/.368/.410. Despite the edge in OBP, Fukudome's lack of power hurts him here as Colvin's 2010 OPS (.816) and OPS+ (109) beat Fukudome's career OPS (.778) and OPS+ (100). However, it should be noted that, just looking at 2010, Fukudome's OPS (.809) and OPS+ (111) are comparable to Colvin's. All things considered, I like Colvin's upside (and contract) better than Fukudome's, thus giving him the slight edge.
EDGE: 2011
Starting Rotation - One might think that Matt Garza is taking Tom Gorzelanny's spot in the rotation, but Garza is really replacing Ted Lilly in the rotation, as Gorzelanny was considered the 6th starter (as evidenced by Carlos Zambrano replacing him in the rotation upon his return from exile). In his 4 years with the Cubs, Lilly was one of the most consistent pitchers in the rotation, posting a 3.70 ERA, a 23 ERA+ and a 12.4 WAR. For his career, Lilly posted a 4.18 ERA, 108 ERA+ and a cumulative WAR of 25.1. On the other hand, Garza has a career ERA of 3.97, an ERA+ of 107 and cumulative WAR of 9.8. Garza's WAR of 9.0 over the last 3 years is comparable to Lilly's WAR of 9.2 over the last 3 years (with the Cubs). With their stats fairly similar, the deciding factor comes down to age and contract again, with Garza getting the edge in both.
EDGE: 2011
Bullpen - The Cubs bullpen was a shambles in 2010, with Lou Piniella trying Carlos Zambrano in the setup role before eventually using Andrew Cashner and Sean Marshall in that role. The addition of Kerry Wood allows Cashner to focus on starting (he is effectively replacing Gorzelanny) and gives the Cubs a strong righty/lefty combo at the back of the pen. If John Grabow can regain his form, after an injury plagued season, and the Cubs can find a couple more decent relievers (from numerous candidates), the 2011 bullpen cannot help but be better.
EDGE: 2011
Manager - Mike Quade was named iterim manager when Lou Piniella took early retirement and immediately breathed new life into the franchise. Its unknown if he can work the same magic in 2011, but he will certainly bring a change of pace from Lou's tired old "I don't know what to do" routine. Ryne Sandberg may have been a more popular choice amongst Cub fans, but Quade is definitely a step up from the fading into the sunset Piniella.
EDGE: 2011
Conclusion
When I started writing this article, I fully expected the 2010 squad to be better than the 2011 version. However, the 2011 roster stacks up well versus 2010. Will it be enough to contend in 2011? I doubt it. But maybe the Cubs can at least finish above .500.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Sunday, January 23, 2011
The Cubs "Leadoff Man by Committee"
Its no secret that the Cubs lack a true leadoff hitter. 2010 saw several different players man the top spot, including Ryan Theriot, Kosuke Fukudome, Blake DeWitt, Darwin Barney, Marlon Byrd, Tyler Colvin and Starlin Castro. The Cubs leadoff men hit a combined .251/.316/.363 in 2010 and with the man used most in the leadoff spot now in St. Louis (Theriot), the Cubs will likely have to make due with some sort of Leadoff Man by Comittee.
To make it more interesting, Fukudome, who started the second most games in the leadoff spot, is no longer a starter and Castro, who seems like a good fit for the leadoff spot, seems to be locked into the 2 hole.
So, what will Quade do? Chances are he'll mix and match, based on matchups and who he has starting on any given day.
Here's how I think it'll play out:
Blake DeWitt will see the majority of the starts in the leadoff spot. He's not an ideal choice, as he has a career .335 OBP, but the Cubs are probably hoping he'll grow into the role. DeWitt should get 3-4 starts in the leadoff spot each week.
Kosuke Fukudome, who had the second most starts at leadoff in 2010, will probably get around 1-2 starts a week, to rest Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd or Tyler Colvin, and will hit leadoff on those occasions that he starts. Fukudome was second on the team in OBP at .371 (behind only Geovany Soto's .393).
Darwin Barney could get 1-2 starts a week in place of DeWitt and will leadoff in those instances. Again, not the ideal leadoff man, as he owns a career .334 OBP in the minors, but the Cubs appear willing to try anyone.
If Quade goes with the above committee (and indications from the end of last year say he probably will), then the leadoff spot will likely be a weak one again for the Cubs in 2011. My only hope is that Brett Jackson arrives soon.
To make it more interesting, Fukudome, who started the second most games in the leadoff spot, is no longer a starter and Castro, who seems like a good fit for the leadoff spot, seems to be locked into the 2 hole.
So, what will Quade do? Chances are he'll mix and match, based on matchups and who he has starting on any given day.
Here's how I think it'll play out:
Blake DeWitt will see the majority of the starts in the leadoff spot. He's not an ideal choice, as he has a career .335 OBP, but the Cubs are probably hoping he'll grow into the role. DeWitt should get 3-4 starts in the leadoff spot each week.
Kosuke Fukudome, who had the second most starts at leadoff in 2010, will probably get around 1-2 starts a week, to rest Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd or Tyler Colvin, and will hit leadoff on those occasions that he starts. Fukudome was second on the team in OBP at .371 (behind only Geovany Soto's .393).
Darwin Barney could get 1-2 starts a week in place of DeWitt and will leadoff in those instances. Again, not the ideal leadoff man, as he owns a career .334 OBP in the minors, but the Cubs appear willing to try anyone.
If Quade goes with the above committee (and indications from the end of last year say he probably will), then the leadoff spot will likely be a weak one again for the Cubs in 2011. My only hope is that Brett Jackson arrives soon.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
With Tom Gorzelanny gone, Cubs lineup and rotation pretty much set
With the recent trade of Tom Gorzelanny, the Cubs have pretty much finalized their starting lineup and rotation.
So here is my early projections for the starting lineup, rotation and remaining roster spots for 2011.
Starting lineup and bench:
Catcher - Geovany Soto
First Base - Carlos Pena
Second - Blake DeWitt
Short - Starlin Castro
Third - Aramis Ramirez
Left - Alfonso Soriano
Center - Marlon Byrd
Right - Tyler Colvin
4th OF - Kosuke Fukudome (assuming he's not traded)
5th OF - TBD - most likely newly acquired Fernando Perez
UT IF 1 - Jeff Baker
UT IF 2 - Darwin Barney
Backup Catch - Koyie Hill
Chances are that Fukudome will see a good amount of playing time (350-400 AB's), spelling each of the other outfielders, 2-3 times a week. Barney could beat out DeWitt for the second base job, but that is unlikely. The Cubs didn't trade for DeWitt to make him a bench player. They will give him every opportunity to prove how mediocre he is before finally going in another direction.
Starting Rotation
1 - Matt Garza
2 - Ryan Dempster
3 - Carlos Zambrano
4 - Andrew Cashner
5 - Carlos Silva, Randy Wells or Jeff Samardzija
Bullpen
Closer - Carlos Marmol
Setup - Kerry Wood, Sean Marshall
Middle - John Grabow, the two "losers" in the 5th rotation spot battle, and one more long reliever/mopup guy
The trade of Tom Gorzelanny and the acquisition of Kerry Wood will allow the Cubs to move Andrew Cashner into the rotation. He may take some lumps along the way, but should benefit from the experience. The 5th starting spot is up in the air, as the Cubs aren't sure what to expect from Silva or Wells. Samardzija will likely end up in the pen.
Thus, with Spring Training about a month away, the key battles are already shaping up to be the 5th starter spot, possibly the second base job, the bench and the last bullpen spot. To me, the most interesting battle will be the 5th starter (and 4th, since Cashner is not guaranteed the spot). I will give you detailed previews of the Spring Training battles next month.
So here is my early projections for the starting lineup, rotation and remaining roster spots for 2011.
Starting lineup and bench:
Catcher - Geovany Soto
First Base - Carlos Pena
Second - Blake DeWitt
Short - Starlin Castro
Third - Aramis Ramirez
Left - Alfonso Soriano
Center - Marlon Byrd
Right - Tyler Colvin
4th OF - Kosuke Fukudome (assuming he's not traded)
5th OF - TBD - most likely newly acquired Fernando Perez
UT IF 1 - Jeff Baker
UT IF 2 - Darwin Barney
Backup Catch - Koyie Hill
Chances are that Fukudome will see a good amount of playing time (350-400 AB's), spelling each of the other outfielders, 2-3 times a week. Barney could beat out DeWitt for the second base job, but that is unlikely. The Cubs didn't trade for DeWitt to make him a bench player. They will give him every opportunity to prove how mediocre he is before finally going in another direction.
Starting Rotation
1 - Matt Garza
2 - Ryan Dempster
3 - Carlos Zambrano
4 - Andrew Cashner
5 - Carlos Silva, Randy Wells or Jeff Samardzija
Bullpen
Closer - Carlos Marmol
Setup - Kerry Wood, Sean Marshall
Middle - John Grabow, the two "losers" in the 5th rotation spot battle, and one more long reliever/mopup guy
The trade of Tom Gorzelanny and the acquisition of Kerry Wood will allow the Cubs to move Andrew Cashner into the rotation. He may take some lumps along the way, but should benefit from the experience. The 5th starting spot is up in the air, as the Cubs aren't sure what to expect from Silva or Wells. Samardzija will likely end up in the pen.
Thus, with Spring Training about a month away, the key battles are already shaping up to be the 5th starter spot, possibly the second base job, the bench and the last bullpen spot. To me, the most interesting battle will be the 5th starter (and 4th, since Cashner is not guaranteed the spot). I will give you detailed previews of the Spring Training battles next month.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Cubs trade Tom Gorzelanny to Nationals for 3 prospects
Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago broke the news today that the Cubs have traded pitcher Tom Gorzelanny to the Washington Nationals for 3 prospects. It was later reported that those prospects are outfielder Michael Burgess (twitter), pitcher A.J. Morris (twitter) and pitcher Graham Hicks (twitter).
Burgess is the key piece of this trade. He is a former first round pick (in the 2007 draft) who has a strong arm and good power. He has hit at least 18 homeruns in each of his 3 full minor league seasons and has cut down his strikeout rate each year despite moving up the ladder. If he continues to develop, he could eventually take over in right field (moving Tyler Colvin to left) when Alfonso Soriano's contract expires.
Morris is a former 4th round pick (2009) who spent the 2010 season at high A Potomac where he compiled a 3.88 ERA and 61 K's in 72 IP as a swingman. The third prospect is also expected to be a pitcher.
Hicks is also a former 4th round pick (2008). He has yet to get past A ball and has a career 5.33 ERA in 3 minor league seasons.
Overall, this is a decent trade for the Cubs. Given his history (and high walk rate--4.1/9IP in his career), the Cubs should not have been expecting a big haul for Gorzelanny. Burgess is a good prospect, as Baseball America has him ranked somewhere between #11-20 on the Nationals list, but he no longer fit in the Nationals plans and, like Gorzelanny with the Cubs, was expendable. Morris shows some promise, but will probably be no more than a long-reliever in the majors and Hicks appears to be nothing more than a throw-in.
Finally, all you fantasy players out there should take note, Gorzelanny should benefit from the move to Washington and its spacious ballpark.
Burgess is the key piece of this trade. He is a former first round pick (in the 2007 draft) who has a strong arm and good power. He has hit at least 18 homeruns in each of his 3 full minor league seasons and has cut down his strikeout rate each year despite moving up the ladder. If he continues to develop, he could eventually take over in right field (moving Tyler Colvin to left) when Alfonso Soriano's contract expires.
Morris is a former 4th round pick (2009) who spent the 2010 season at high A Potomac where he compiled a 3.88 ERA and 61 K's in 72 IP as a swingman. The third prospect is also expected to be a pitcher.
Hicks is also a former 4th round pick (2008). He has yet to get past A ball and has a career 5.33 ERA in 3 minor league seasons.
Overall, this is a decent trade for the Cubs. Given his history (and high walk rate--4.1/9IP in his career), the Cubs should not have been expecting a big haul for Gorzelanny. Burgess is a good prospect, as Baseball America has him ranked somewhere between #11-20 on the Nationals list, but he no longer fit in the Nationals plans and, like Gorzelanny with the Cubs, was expendable. Morris shows some promise, but will probably be no more than a long-reliever in the majors and Hicks appears to be nothing more than a throw-in.
Finally, all you fantasy players out there should take note, Gorzelanny should benefit from the move to Washington and its spacious ballpark.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Reed Johnson returns to Cubs. All is right in the World.
In a move to appease their ever-skeptical and dwindling fan base, the Cubs have signed former Cub and fan favorite Reed Johnson to a minor league deal.
Known for his hard-nosed play, Johnson spent last year with the Dodgers after spending the previous two years with the Cubs.
Reading between the lines, this move gives Jim Hendry a little more outfield depth to play with and makes it more likely that he trades Kosuke Fukudome. Hendry still needs to free up some salary space, to make some room for the expected arbitration raises for Geovany Soto, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny and the recently acquired Matt Garza.
Gorzelanny has been rumored to be on the block, however, I see that as more of a move to restock the farm system than to free up salary space.
In any case, I don't think Hendry is done with his offseason moves.
Known for his hard-nosed play, Johnson spent last year with the Dodgers after spending the previous two years with the Cubs.
Reading between the lines, this move gives Jim Hendry a little more outfield depth to play with and makes it more likely that he trades Kosuke Fukudome. Hendry still needs to free up some salary space, to make some room for the expected arbitration raises for Geovany Soto, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny and the recently acquired Matt Garza.
Gorzelanny has been rumored to be on the block, however, I see that as more of a move to restock the farm system than to free up salary space.
In any case, I don't think Hendry is done with his offseason moves.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Updated 2011 Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect List
With the Cubs trading away 4 players listed in my 2011 Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect List, I have updated the list to remove those players.
For those website that had more than 10 players listed, I just bumped up everyone 3 spots. For those that only had 10 listed, I just removed the traded players and bumped up the remaining players, as necessary.
In addition, 4 other sites (Baseball America, Hardball Times, Fangraphs and Top Prospect Alert) have posted their Top Cubs Prospects, so I have added them to the equation.
With that said, here is the updated list. I will update the links over the weekend.
For those website that had more than 10 players listed, I just bumped up everyone 3 spots. For those that only had 10 listed, I just removed the traded players and bumped up the remaining players, as necessary.
In addition, 4 other sites (Baseball America, Hardball Times, Fangraphs and Top Prospect Alert) have posted their Top Cubs Prospects, so I have added them to the equation.
With that said, here is the updated list. I will update the links over the weekend.
| 2011 Composite Top Prospects | |||||
| Total | Hi | Low | |||
| Rank | Name | Pts | Rank | Rank | |
| 1 | Brett Jackson | 98 | 1 | 2 | |
| 2 | Trey McNutt | 89 | 1 | 5 | |
| 3 | Josh Vitters | 70 | 3 | 7 | |
| 4 | Christopher Carpenter | 61 | 2 | NR | |
| 5 | Jay Jackson | 52 | 3 | 7 | |
| 6 | Hayden Simpson | 34 | 4 | NR | |
| 7 | D.J. LeMahieu | 21 | 4 | NR | |
| 8 | Rafael Dolis | 19 | 6 | NR | |
| 9 | Reggie Golden | 18 | 6 | NR | |
| 10 | Matt Szczur, Jae-Hoon Ha | 11 | 5 | NR | |
| Others earning points: | |||||
| Robinson Lopez (9), Junior Lake (8), Welington Castillo (7), Ryan Flaherty (7), Alberto Cabrera (4), Russ Canzler (3), Austin Reed (3), Marquez Smith (2), Aaron Kurcz (2), Darwin Barney (2). | |||||
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Looking into the crystal ball: Predicting the Cubs future
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Here are my predictions for the future of the Cubs:
2011
With a new manager, first baseman, bullpen and the addition of Matt Garza to the rotation, the Cubs start hot out of the gate. Despite their typical "June Swoon", they remain only 5 games behind the Cardinals and Reds for the division lead at the All Star Break. Jim Hendry, in an effort to boost the sagging offense, trades Brett Jackson, Blake DeWitt and Casey Coleman to the Diamondbacks for Kelly Johnson. The move fails as the Cubs finish 4th, with a 75-87 record, 20 games back of the Reds for first and also behind the Cardinals and the surprising Pirates. Kelly Johnson becomes a free agent after the season, despite numerous extension offers from the Cubs, saying that Cub fans are racist against whites and too hung-up on trying to win a World Series to have fun at the ballpark.
With money to burn, Jim Hendry goes on another spending spree in the offseason, signing Prince Fielder to a 10-year/$250 million contract, Brandon Phillips to a 6-year/$90 million contract and Wandy Rodriguez to an 8-year/$140 million contract. Mike Quade immediately anoints Phillips (and his career .316 OBP) as the Cubs new leadoff hitter, saying he is the next Alfonso Soriano.
2012
With a revamped lineup and a rotation featuring Matt Garza, Wandy Rodriguez, Andrew Cashner, Trey McNutt and Jeff Samardzija (yes, that Jeff Samardzija), the Cubs run away with the NL Central, winning 100 games and leading the league in ERA. Tom Ricketts signs Jim Hendry to a 5 year extension mid-season, only to see the Cubs lose in the first round to the Wild Card Florida Marlins.
2013
After another early exit from the playoffs, Cubs Manager Mike Quade says that the Cubs are too lefty oriented and need a right handed power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Jim Hendry promptly signs free agent Mark Reynolds, who led the AL with 250 strikeouts in 125 games, to a 3-year/$45 million contract.
Despite deteriorating numbers and decreased velocity, Hendry also signs Matt Garza to a 5-year/$100 million extension.
2014
After striking out for the 100th time with a runner on third and only one out, Cubs fans boo Mark Reynolds mercilessly. After the game, Reynolds tells reporters, "Cubs fan don't understand baseball. A strikeout doesn't hurt the team. At least I'm not hitting into a double play". Reynolds is traded in the offseason for a box of Special K's with the Cubs' agreeing to pay all of Reynolds' remaining salary.
Despite a winning season, the aging Cubs fail to make the playoffs.
2015
After Prince Fielder reports to Spring Training weighing 300 lbs and starts the season hitting only .150 in April, Cubs Manager Mike Quade decides to make Fielder the Cubs' DH. Fielder isn't happy with the move, but says he will do what is best for the team.
Weighed down by bloated contracts for under performing players (Garza, Fielder and Phillips) and the departed Reynolds, the Cubs fail to produce a winning record for the first time in 3 years, falling to 65-97 and 5th place.
Hendry, with no payroll room to make any significant moves in the offseason, decides that he needs another starting pitcher (despite having 8 viable starters on the roster) and trades Minor League Player of the Year, Reggie Golden, and Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Hayden Simpson and three other prospects for Dan Hudson.
Rinse. Repeat....
Here are my predictions for the future of the Cubs:
2011
With a new manager, first baseman, bullpen and the addition of Matt Garza to the rotation, the Cubs start hot out of the gate. Despite their typical "June Swoon", they remain only 5 games behind the Cardinals and Reds for the division lead at the All Star Break. Jim Hendry, in an effort to boost the sagging offense, trades Brett Jackson, Blake DeWitt and Casey Coleman to the Diamondbacks for Kelly Johnson. The move fails as the Cubs finish 4th, with a 75-87 record, 20 games back of the Reds for first and also behind the Cardinals and the surprising Pirates. Kelly Johnson becomes a free agent after the season, despite numerous extension offers from the Cubs, saying that Cub fans are racist against whites and too hung-up on trying to win a World Series to have fun at the ballpark.
With money to burn, Jim Hendry goes on another spending spree in the offseason, signing Prince Fielder to a 10-year/$250 million contract, Brandon Phillips to a 6-year/$90 million contract and Wandy Rodriguez to an 8-year/$140 million contract. Mike Quade immediately anoints Phillips (and his career .316 OBP) as the Cubs new leadoff hitter, saying he is the next Alfonso Soriano.
2012
With a revamped lineup and a rotation featuring Matt Garza, Wandy Rodriguez, Andrew Cashner, Trey McNutt and Jeff Samardzija (yes, that Jeff Samardzija), the Cubs run away with the NL Central, winning 100 games and leading the league in ERA. Tom Ricketts signs Jim Hendry to a 5 year extension mid-season, only to see the Cubs lose in the first round to the Wild Card Florida Marlins.
2013
After another early exit from the playoffs, Cubs Manager Mike Quade says that the Cubs are too lefty oriented and need a right handed power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Jim Hendry promptly signs free agent Mark Reynolds, who led the AL with 250 strikeouts in 125 games, to a 3-year/$45 million contract.
Despite deteriorating numbers and decreased velocity, Hendry also signs Matt Garza to a 5-year/$100 million extension.
2014
After striking out for the 100th time with a runner on third and only one out, Cubs fans boo Mark Reynolds mercilessly. After the game, Reynolds tells reporters, "Cubs fan don't understand baseball. A strikeout doesn't hurt the team. At least I'm not hitting into a double play". Reynolds is traded in the offseason for a box of Special K's with the Cubs' agreeing to pay all of Reynolds' remaining salary.
Despite a winning season, the aging Cubs fail to make the playoffs.
2015
After Prince Fielder reports to Spring Training weighing 300 lbs and starts the season hitting only .150 in April, Cubs Manager Mike Quade decides to make Fielder the Cubs' DH. Fielder isn't happy with the move, but says he will do what is best for the team.
Weighed down by bloated contracts for under performing players (Garza, Fielder and Phillips) and the departed Reynolds, the Cubs fail to produce a winning record for the first time in 3 years, falling to 65-97 and 5th place.
Hendry, with no payroll room to make any significant moves in the offseason, decides that he needs another starting pitcher (despite having 8 viable starters on the roster) and trades Minor League Player of the Year, Reggie Golden, and Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Hayden Simpson and three other prospects for Dan Hudson.
Rinse. Repeat....
Friday, January 7, 2011
Cubs acquire Matt Garza in 8 player trade
So much for "building from within".
According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago, the Cubs and Tampa Rays have agreed to an 8 player deal that nets the Cubs Matt Garza.
The Cubs trade prospects Christ Archer, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos, Hak-Ju Lee and Sam Fuld to the Rays for Garza, minor league outfielder Fernando Perez and a minor league pitcher. For those of you scoring at home, those are the Cubs #2 (Archer), #4 (Lee) and #8 (Guyer) prospects on my Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect list, including the Cubs Minor League Player (Guyer) and Pitcher (Archer) of the Year. Add in Chirinos, who was among the prospects also receiving votes in the composite list, and Fuld, a valuable 4th or 5th outfielder, and that is a VERY steep price to pay for a pitcher not named Roy Halladay.
My reaction to the trade: I HATE IT!!!!
After all this talk about doing things the right way, spending more money on scouting and player development and building from within, this move proves that Jim Hendry and the Cubs are still in "win now" mode. After a losing season that saw attendance drop, this move stinks of desperation-- an effort to try to make the on-field product look better and put fannies in the seats.
Don't get me wrong, Garza is a good pitcher, but his addition is not going to win the Cubs any division titles (let alone World Series titles). Three of the Cubs division rivals (the Brewers, Reds and Cardinals) have all made moves to improve their team, while the Cubs have been basically treading water and waiting for their overblown contracts to come off the books.
It is this short-term focus, that generally prevails with Cubs management, that is keeping them from achieving the ultimate goal--the World Series--and until their mindset changes or a certain GM is fired, the Cubs will continue to fail to reach that goal.
According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago, the Cubs and Tampa Rays have agreed to an 8 player deal that nets the Cubs Matt Garza.
The Cubs trade prospects Christ Archer, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos, Hak-Ju Lee and Sam Fuld to the Rays for Garza, minor league outfielder Fernando Perez and a minor league pitcher. For those of you scoring at home, those are the Cubs #2 (Archer), #4 (Lee) and #8 (Guyer) prospects on my Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect list, including the Cubs Minor League Player (Guyer) and Pitcher (Archer) of the Year. Add in Chirinos, who was among the prospects also receiving votes in the composite list, and Fuld, a valuable 4th or 5th outfielder, and that is a VERY steep price to pay for a pitcher not named Roy Halladay.
My reaction to the trade: I HATE IT!!!!
After all this talk about doing things the right way, spending more money on scouting and player development and building from within, this move proves that Jim Hendry and the Cubs are still in "win now" mode. After a losing season that saw attendance drop, this move stinks of desperation-- an effort to try to make the on-field product look better and put fannies in the seats.
Don't get me wrong, Garza is a good pitcher, but his addition is not going to win the Cubs any division titles (let alone World Series titles). Three of the Cubs division rivals (the Brewers, Reds and Cardinals) have all made moves to improve their team, while the Cubs have been basically treading water and waiting for their overblown contracts to come off the books.
It is this short-term focus, that generally prevails with Cubs management, that is keeping them from achieving the ultimate goal--the World Series--and until their mindset changes or a certain GM is fired, the Cubs will continue to fail to reach that goal.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
I'm Back! Rumors for the New Year.
Hey everyone, sorry for the lack of post lately, various things have been keeping me busy and away from the blog.
So, to get everyone back up to speed, including myself, here are the latest Cubs rumors.
First off is the biggest name on the Cubs radar, Matt Garza. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun Times reported yesterday that the Cubs lead in the Matt Garza derby and were apparently close to a deal. This surprised Cubs officials, according to Carrie Muskat of MLB.com and Dave Kaplan of CSN Chicago reports that the Cubs and Rays have discussed Garza, but that no other names have been discussed yet.
If the Cubs end up making a deal for Garza, it will probably be a costly one (in terms of prospects). Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago suggests that Hak-Ju Lee and Robinson Chirinos would likely be part of the deal, and Christ Archer and Andrew Cashner's names have been tossed about too as possible Rays targets.
If the Cubs are truly looking to "build from within" as Tom Ricketts suggested, then I really don't get this type of move. The Cubs would be depleting their farm system for a pitcher that I do not consider "ace" material. Archer and Cashner have just as much of a chance to develop into an ace as Garza does.
So, if I was Jim Hendry, I would pass on Garza unless the asking price drops considerably.
A rumor that was shot down quickly was that the Cubs might pursue Texas' Michael Young to play second, since the Rangers' signing of Adrian Beltre makes Young expendable. ESPN's Buster Olney nipped that rumor in the bud, saying the Cubs are not planning on upgrading at second base.
Finally, in a minor move, the Cubs lost righty Brian Schlitter when the Yankees claimed him on waivers this week. Not a big loss in terms of talent, but I will miss him for his name alone. Now I can no longer say that "this game is going into the Schlitter", when he comes in. <Sigh>
So, to get everyone back up to speed, including myself, here are the latest Cubs rumors.
First off is the biggest name on the Cubs radar, Matt Garza. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun Times reported yesterday that the Cubs lead in the Matt Garza derby and were apparently close to a deal. This surprised Cubs officials, according to Carrie Muskat of MLB.com and Dave Kaplan of CSN Chicago reports that the Cubs and Rays have discussed Garza, but that no other names have been discussed yet.
If the Cubs end up making a deal for Garza, it will probably be a costly one (in terms of prospects). Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago suggests that Hak-Ju Lee and Robinson Chirinos would likely be part of the deal, and Christ Archer and Andrew Cashner's names have been tossed about too as possible Rays targets.
If the Cubs are truly looking to "build from within" as Tom Ricketts suggested, then I really don't get this type of move. The Cubs would be depleting their farm system for a pitcher that I do not consider "ace" material. Archer and Cashner have just as much of a chance to develop into an ace as Garza does.
So, if I was Jim Hendry, I would pass on Garza unless the asking price drops considerably.
A rumor that was shot down quickly was that the Cubs might pursue Texas' Michael Young to play second, since the Rangers' signing of Adrian Beltre makes Young expendable. ESPN's Buster Olney nipped that rumor in the bud, saying the Cubs are not planning on upgrading at second base.
Finally, in a minor move, the Cubs lost righty Brian Schlitter when the Yankees claimed him on waivers this week. Not a big loss in terms of talent, but I will miss him for his name alone. Now I can no longer say that "this game is going into the Schlitter", when he comes in. <Sigh>
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)