Heading into the offseason, Jim Hendry said that the Cubs could contend with just 3 or 4 moves. Well, Hendry has made his 3 or 4 moves and, combined with the emergence of Tyler Colvin and Starlin Castro last year, the 2011 Cubs roster will look a lot different that the 2010 version. But will it be better?
Let's take a look at the key differences and see if the Cubs really have improved (at least on paper):
First Base - The Cubs effectively swapped Derrek Lee for Carlos Pena. Before he was traded to Atlanta, Lee hit .251/.335/.416 with the Cubs versus Pena's .196/.325/.407. Despite Pena's atrocious average, he and Lee posted similar OPS' (.732 for Pena, .752 for Lee) as well as OPS+ (102 for Pena versus Lee's 95 with the Cubs). Digging deeper into the numbers, Pena posted a better WAR than Lee in 2010 (1.1 versus 0.8) as well as over the last 4 years (11.1 versus 8.3). I think that Lee was a far better player than Pena, in his prime, but recent history and Pena's age (32 versus Lee, 35) gives the edge to Pena.
EDGE: 2011
Second Base - Here the Cubs are replacing Mike Fontenot, the lefthanded hitter in the platoon with Jeff Baker, with a new lefthanded hitter, Blake DeWitt. In 169 AB's with the Cubs, before he was traded, Fontenot hit .284/.332/.402. In 184 AB's with the Cubs, after coming over in the Ted Lilly trade, DeWitt hit .250/.314/.375. For their (brief) careers, Fontenot has an OPS of .749, a OPS+ of 92 and a career WAR of 2.8 (with the Cubs). DeWitt boasts a career OPS of .713, OPS of 91 and a career WAR of 3.1 (in two fewer years than Fontenot). Neither player has a clear edge here, so I will call it a tie.
EDGE: PUSH
Shortstop - Starlin Castro replaced Ryan Theriot at short early in the season, with Theriot moving to second, before eventually being traded. In his first season with the Cubs, Castro hit .300/.347/.408, giving him a OPS of .755, OPS+ of 97 and a WAR of 0.4. For his career, Theriot hit .287/.350/.362 with the Cubs, with an OPS of .712, an OPS+ of 83 and a WAR of 5.0 (-0.7 for 2010). Theriot has moved on to the Cardinals and the Cubs are a better team without him.
EDGE: 2011
Right Field - Here Tyler Colvin is replacing 2010 opening day starter Kosuke Fukudome. Colvin hit .254/.316/.500 in 2010, whereas Fukudome has a career line of .259/.368/.410. Despite the edge in OBP, Fukudome's lack of power hurts him here as Colvin's 2010 OPS (.816) and OPS+ (109) beat Fukudome's career OPS (.778) and OPS+ (100). However, it should be noted that, just looking at 2010, Fukudome's OPS (.809) and OPS+ (111) are comparable to Colvin's. All things considered, I like Colvin's upside (and contract) better than Fukudome's, thus giving him the slight edge.
EDGE: 2011
Starting Rotation - One might think that Matt Garza is taking Tom Gorzelanny's spot in the rotation, but Garza is really replacing Ted Lilly in the rotation, as Gorzelanny was considered the 6th starter (as evidenced by Carlos Zambrano replacing him in the rotation upon his return from exile). In his 4 years with the Cubs, Lilly was one of the most consistent pitchers in the rotation, posting a 3.70 ERA, a 23 ERA+ and a 12.4 WAR. For his career, Lilly posted a 4.18 ERA, 108 ERA+ and a cumulative WAR of 25.1. On the other hand, Garza has a career ERA of 3.97, an ERA+ of 107 and cumulative WAR of 9.8. Garza's WAR of 9.0 over the last 3 years is comparable to Lilly's WAR of 9.2 over the last 3 years (with the Cubs). With their stats fairly similar, the deciding factor comes down to age and contract again, with Garza getting the edge in both.
EDGE: 2011
Bullpen - The Cubs bullpen was a shambles in 2010, with Lou Piniella trying Carlos Zambrano in the setup role before eventually using Andrew Cashner and Sean Marshall in that role. The addition of Kerry Wood allows Cashner to focus on starting (he is effectively replacing Gorzelanny) and gives the Cubs a strong righty/lefty combo at the back of the pen. If John Grabow can regain his form, after an injury plagued season, and the Cubs can find a couple more decent relievers (from numerous candidates), the 2011 bullpen cannot help but be better.
EDGE: 2011
Manager - Mike Quade was named iterim manager when Lou Piniella took early retirement and immediately breathed new life into the franchise. Its unknown if he can work the same magic in 2011, but he will certainly bring a change of pace from Lou's tired old "I don't know what to do" routine. Ryne Sandberg may have been a more popular choice amongst Cub fans, but Quade is definitely a step up from the fading into the sunset Piniella.
EDGE: 2011
Conclusion
When I started writing this article, I fully expected the 2010 squad to be better than the 2011 version. However, the 2011 roster stacks up well versus 2010. Will it be enough to contend in 2011? I doubt it. But maybe the Cubs can at least finish above .500.
God, I hope you're right. I'd like to enjoy watching games past May this year. Last year was really unbearable. Onto 2011! Pitchers and catchers report in a couple weeks :)
ReplyDeleteThanks for the article, Captain Obvious...
ReplyDeleteI think they'll be a better team but I'm not hoping for much more than a better than .500 record. If we finish with a winning record I'll be happy.
ReplyDeleteif you combine Silva's first half with Zambrano's second half we had a 19 game winner on the staff. I don't see either pitcher doing that again so we will see if 2011 staff is better or worse than 2010. I think we led the league in quality starts last year but it was run production and the bullpen in the 7-8th inning that killed us. Will we have better run production - kind of hinges on Aramis if you ask me. I definitely see the bullpen being better.
ReplyDeleteI doubt that Colvin will replace Fukie, especially in April when Fukie can actually hit. I see Colvin as the 4th OF only. So RF is a push, not a 2011. I think Aramis might be better this year (contract year) but I doubt Byrd will be and I doubt Soriano will be, either. Soto will still be good but not better than in 2010. And SS will only be better if Starlin improves his fielding and his patience at the plate. Theriot was only a factor in April and May and Castro came up to play SS May 1. All told, only the manager is better and the defense is still abysmal. I foresee 95 losses. Or more.
ReplyDeleteI like the premise of your article, but the reasoning and numbers are flawed because you use OPS. What does OPS tell us? Given the relatively more important weight of OBP to SLG (1.3:1), OPS gives us no information. An .816 OPS is not necessarily better than a .778 OPS. Fukudome and Colvin's weighted on base averages (wOBA) are much more similar than the OPS analysis would concede.
ReplyDeleteStill, I agree 2011 will be better than 2010. I'd even go so far as saying there is a 10-20% chance of making the playoffs. It's far less likely than so, but still a shot
Actually, how much a team outslugs its opponents correlates more strongly with a teams record than does how much much a team out-OBPs its opponents. And difference in OPS does a great job of predicting records because it correlates much more strongly with runs score/allowed than does slugging or OBP alone. The problem is that for individual players, these small differences do not mean much because they are within sampling error of one another.
ReplyDeleteAs for this year's Cubs, having a healthy ARam will be a big difference: his injuries really hurt his play last year. I don't expect as big a year out of Byrd (who really had a great half-year). I just do not see the slugging necessary to really compete. They still might be a 0.500 team, however.
LIKE!!!
ReplyDeleteThe biggest problem with the 2011 Cubs is the division they are playing in. The NL Central could be the most competative in baseball this year with the Brewers, Reds, Cardinals and Cubs all making significant moves in the offseason. Ultimately I think it will come down to who wins the head-to-head matchups. I predict that the NL Wild Card will come out of the Central but I see the Cubs falling just short of it with an 85-88 win season good enough for third place in the NL Central. (I hope I'm wrong and they can push 90, but I don't see it)
ReplyDeleteIt will be good enough for Hendry to keep his job and he will continue to spend good money in the farm system (see the Szczur, Silva, and Cabezas signings) and put the team in a good position for the future.
Actually they are a worse team and this Clown Quade should not have been given the job. Sandberg certainly could not have done worse.
ReplyDelete