Cubs out on Brandon Webb. Should they pursure anyone else?

Less than a week after the Cubs were reportedly one of two teams leading the chase for Brandon Webb, according to Bill Ladson of MLB.com, the Cubs are now out of the hunt, according to ESPN's Jayson Stark.  The leaders now appear to be the Texas Rangers and the Cincinnati Reds, per Ken Rosenthal.

Thus, with that ship ready to sail, is there anyone else worth pursuing?

The Cubs have been linked to the Tampa Rays' Matt Garza in the past, but according to Marc Topkin of Tampabay.com, the Rays are not looking to move a starter, despite having 6 of them.

However, even if the Rays did look to move Garza, they would probably ask for a lot in return and, at this point, I'm willing to stick with what we've got, instead of pursuing costly free agents and even more costly (in terms of talent given up) trades.

The Cubs 2011 rotation will likely include Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano.  The final three spots will be decided in the spring between Randy Wells, Tom Gorzelanny, Carlos Silva, Casey Coleman, Thomas Diamond, Andrew Cashner and Chris Archer.  Wells and Gorzelanny would seem to have a leg up on the others, based on their 2010 performances, however Gorzelanny is rumored to be on the trading block. 

The Cubs made be better served going with a full blown youth movement by putting Cashner and Archer in the rotation, letting them take their lumps in 2011, but giving them the experience they need to succeed in 2012 and 2013, when the Cubs will have more money available to spend to put together a contender.

In any case, I am not too optimistic about the Cubs chances for 2011.  They have too many questions and not enough answers.  A youth movement might be what is needed to breathe some life back into this franchise.  But, it appears that Jim Hendry is just treading water for now, waiting for more salary space to open up so he can go on another spending spree.

Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect List

This week I am adding a new feature to the site, the Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect List.  The idea is pretty simple, albeit time consuming.  I have scoured the internet to find as many Top 10 Prospect lists for the Cubs as I could.  Then, using a formula of 10 points for 1st, 9 points for 2nd, etc. I assigned points for each of lists, added them up and sorted the total points from highest to lowest to give me a composite Top 10.

First, I did this for 2010, to get a bit of historical perspective.  I used the Top 10 lists from 12 different sites (including CBGB).  Some sites had lists of prospects greater than 10, but I cut them all off at 10, so as to be consistent. 

I have added a separate page with the details of the Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect lists (2011 and 2010), including links to all of the "expert" sites.  Below is a summary of the 2010 results:

2010 Composite Top Prospects
			Total	Hi	Low
	Rank	Name	Pts	Rank	Rank
	1	Starlin Castro	115	1	3
	2	Josh Vitters	102	1	4
	3	Brett Jackson	83	2	7
	4	Andrew Cashner	80	1	7
	5	Jay Jackson	77	2	7
	6	Hak-Ju Lee	72	2	8
	7	Chris Carpenter	34	6	NR
	8	Kyler Burke	25	6	NR
	9	Ryan Flaherty	17	7	NR
	10	D.J. LeMahieu	13	6	NR
	Others earning points:
	Logan Watkins (9), Chris Archer (9), Welington Castillo (9), Tyler Colvin (5), Dae-Eun Rhee (3), Chris Huseby (3), John Gaub (2), Jose Valdez (1), Brandon Guyer (1)

A few interesting things to note from the above:  

• The top 6 players were on all 12 Top 10 lists included in the compilation, but after that it was anybody's guess as to who else belonged in the top 10.
• Starlin Castro was the consensus #1 prospect, but Josh Vitters was close behind (hindsight is 20/20).
• Castro was #1 on 8 lists, whereas Vitters was #1 on 2 and Andrew Cashner was #1 on 2.
• The Cubs Minor League Player of the Year (Brandon Guyer) and Pitcher of the Year (Chris Archer) both did not make the Composite Top 10.  Archer made it on 4 lists, whereas Guyer made it on only one list (by yours truly).

With that completed, I moved on to the 2011 list.  As it is still early in the offseason, only 6 out of the 12 sites have their Top 10 lists posted so far.  Thus, I will update this again in the Spring, when all sites have provided their lists.  But for now, here is the 2011 Cubs Composite Top 10 Prospect list:

2011 Composite Top Prospects
			Total	Hi	Low
	Rank	Name	Pts	Rank	Rank
	1	Brett Jackson	56	1	3
	2	Chris Archer	53	1	4
	3	Trey McNutt	47	2	7
	4	Hak-Ju Lee	40	1	7
	5	Josh Vitters	28	2	7
	6	Jay Jackson	23	2	8
	7	Chris Carpenter	22	6	9
	8	Brandon Guyer	19	6	10
	9	D.J. LeMahieu	8	7	NR
	10	Hayden Simpson	8	6	NR
	Others earning points:
	Junior Lake (6), Reggie Golden (5), Welington Castillo (4), Jae-Hoon Ha (3), Rafael Dolis (3), Robinson Chirinos (2), Robinson Lopez (1), Russ Canzler (1), Ryan Flaherty (1).

Thus, with 1/2 of the sites posting their lists, there is a tight race for first between Brett Jackson and Chris Archer, which is not surprising.  There are also 3 distinct groupings, the first 4, the second 4 and then everyone else, indicating that, once you get past the top 8 prospects, the remaining 2 are anybody's guess.

In any case, I hope you have found this exercise as interesting as I did.

Cubs sign Kerry Wood to one year $1.5 million contract

Finally, Jim Hendry has signed a decent free agent without overspending. 

Today it was announced that the Cubs have agreed to terms with Kerry Wood on a one year, $1.5 million contract.  After years of overspending (remember John Grabow's 2 year, $7.5 million contract?), Jim Hendry finally found a way to acquire a free agent without overspending.  Perhaps Wood gave the Cubs a home-town discount, but in any case this is a good signing for Hendry and the Cubs.

Wood, who reinvented himself as a reliever in 2007 after injuries derailed his career as a starter, returns to the Cubs after a 2 year hiatus.  He will serve as Carlos Marmol's setup man and possible fallback option, should Marmol experience the wildness he has in the past.

Also, with the Wood signing, Hendry has completed two of the three objectives he laid out for himself this offseason.  He has acquired a first baseman and a righthanded setup man.  All he has left now is to acquire a starting pitcher.  Assuming the reports of Hendry having around $10 million to spend this offseason are true, Hendry has spend $6.5 million so far (with $5 million of Carlos Pena's $10 million contract deferred to 2012), leaving around $3.5 million to spend.  I'm not sure if that will be enough to land someone like Brandon Webb, but it might be enough to land Jeff Francis.

At this rate, Hendry should complete his offseason shopping in time for Christmas.

Could the Yankees pursue Carlos Zambrano?

With the Philadelphia Phillies sneaking in at the last minute to steal Cliff Lee away from the New York Yankees (as well as the Texas Rangers), Yankees GM Brian Cashman is scrambling to find pitching.

The Yankees recently signed former Cub Mark Prior and are rumored to be interested in the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano, as well as free agent Kerry Wood.  If that doesn't smack of desperation, I don't know what does.

Pursuing Zambrano makes some sense for the Yankees, as they now have former Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild as their coach and he helped Zambrano return to form down the stretch this year.

Perhaps Jim Hendry can use Cashman's desperation against him and dump the albatross Zambrano contract on the Yankees without having to eat a significant chunk of it.  However, it seems unlikely to happen, as Zambrano still has a no-trade clause and may not want to leave Chicago and the Yankees may not want to deal with Zambrano and his shenanigans.

The other effect that the Lee signing is that the available pitchers are now more in demand and thus the price on possible Cubs trade targets Matt Garza and Zach Greinke has just gone up.  This just makes it more likely that the Cubs will end up signing Brandon Webb or some other bounce-back candidate.

One thing is for sure, with the thin free agent pitching market, we will see more pitchers being traded this offseason.  Whether that means that Hendry can finally dump Zambrano on some other team is uncertain, but I am sure he will check into the possibility.

Getting back on track

Sorry for the lack of posts recently, I and my kids have been dealing with the flu the last week or so (that flu shot I got really didn't help much).

I will get back on track today with a new post and am working on a new feature for the site, which I hope to have up before the weekend.

Stay tuned....

Baseball Bloggers Alliance

I would like to take some time from my normal musings to talk about a site I discovered not too long ago. 

I stumbled across the Baseball Bloggers Alliance website a month ago when I had just started this blog and was looking for a way to get the word out.  After browsing through the site, I was impressed and signed up immediately to join the Alliance.

The BBA was started in April 2009 by Daniel Shoptaw and has been growing ever since.  Currently there are 230 members of the Alliance, covering every major league team as well as general topics such as baseball history and fantasy baseball.  It's truly a one-stop place to catch up on all things baseball.

In addition to containing blog feeds from all the members, the members also vote on who should be included in the Hall of Fame (each January), the All-Star Game (each June) and post-season awards (each October). 

Its a great idea (and one that I wish I had thought of) and I encourage everyone to check us out.

Rule 5 Draft: Marquez Smith goes unclaimed; Cubs select Mason Tobin for Rangers

The Rule 5 draft was held this morning and Cubs prospect Marquez Smith made it through unclaimed.  Jim Hendry got lucky here as I thought for sure someone would select him.  With Smith still around, the Cubs have some needed depth at third and Aramis Ramirez' potential replacement in 2012.

As for the Cubs pick, they selected Mason Tobin from the Angels and promptly traded him to the Rangers for cash considerations.  This is interesting in that, I would think that if the Cubs were going to trade for Texas' Chris Davis, they would have made Tobin a part of that deal.  So, to me it appears that the Cubs are passing on Davis, at least for now.

I will give you more updates on the latest rumors coming out of the last day of the Winter Meetings later today.

Winter Meetings Day 3 wrap: Quiet evening for the Cubs

All's quiet for the Cubs tonight, after making their big splash with the Carlos Pena signing earlier today.

Tomorrow is the Rule 5 draft.  Hopefully, Marquez Smith will make it through unclaimed.

More updates tomorrow.

Cubs sign Carlos Pena to 1 year, $10 million deal

After endless speculation, the Cubs finally landed their 2011 first baseman late last night, signing Carlos Pena to a 1-year, $10 million contract, some of which is deferred.

My first reaction when I heard that the Cubs signed Pena was thinking good, they got an excellent defensive player who hits left handed and has power.  Then I heard the salary and I thought "Are you serious? $10 million and he didn't even hit over the Mendoza line last year?  Damn that Scott Boras!!!"

While I think that Pena is a good pickup and will likely bounce-back in 2011, that $10 million figure might put a wrench is Jim Hendry's other plans for this winter.  It is assumed that Hendry has around $10 million to spend this winter.  So, depending on how much of that salary is deferred, Hendry just used up a large chunk of it on one player.

This could possibly mean that the Cubs will no longer pursue Brandon Webb and will instead look to trade for a starter or go with internal options.  The latest rumors support this theory, as the Cubs are one of 4 teams interested in Matt Garza, according to Bruce Levine.  Levine also states that the Cubs have talked to the Tigers about a Tom Gorzelanny for Armando Galarraga (the guy who had his perfect game stolen from him by Jim Joyce).

Finally, this doesn't mean that the Cubs will stop their pursuit of Texas' Chris Davis.  Levine states in his article that the Cubs continue to "kick the tires" on a trade for Davis with Texas interested in Robinson Chirinos.  Davis could be a valuable backup at first and third, and could take over for Aramis Ramirez or Carlos Pena in 2012.  Plus, if Darren O'Day is included in the deal, Jim Hendry would have the right handed reliever that he craves.

The rumors continue to swirl around the Cubs and it looks like Hendry is not slowing down.  I will try to provide you with another update tonight.

Winter Meetings rumors: Cubs step up pursuit of first baseman

After a relatively quiet first day of the Winter Meetings for the Cubs and GM Jim Hendry, things picked up today as Hendry stepped up his pursuit of a first baseman.

First, Hendry met with Carlos Pena's agent, Scott Boras, according to Carrie Muskat, but salary figures were not discussed.

Then, Hendry reportedly was targeting free agent Adam LaRoche, according to Scott Miller of CBS Sports, and wanted to "close the deal soon."

Finally, Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse reported that Hendry was working on a multi-player deal with the Rangers involving Chris Davis and reliever Darren O'Day.  According to Jeff Wilson of the Fort-Worth Star Telegram, the Cubs are interested in Davis, but don't want to part with much.

It appears that Hendry wants to get his first baseman before the Winter Meetings end.  This makes sense in that, it is the Cubs' biggest need and his salary will determine what they have left to spend on a starter and a right handed reliever.

If Hendry can trade for Davis and O'Day, he will fill two of the holes at low to moderate salaries.  Davis will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2011 season, whereas O'Day is arbitration eligible for the first time this year and should see a significant raise over the $400K he earned last year.

Although I have my concerns about Davis and his high strikeout rate, I think that a trade for Davis and O'Day would be a good move for Hendry.  O'Day is an excellent reliever, posting ERA's right around 2.00 the last two years.  If Hendry can land both of them while only giving up a catching prospect (Welington Castillo or Robinson Chirinos seem to be on the table) and one or two other lower prospects, I'd say go for it.

In other news, Hendry was to meet again with Jonathan Mauer, Brandon Webb's agent, this afternoon, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, after meeting with him last night (according to Troy Renck).  It appears to be a 3 horse race for Webb, according to Jerry Crasnick, with the Cubs, Nationals and Rangers all in the hunt.

If the price is right, Webb could be a good high upside acquisition for the Cubs.  However, I cannot justify giving more than $5 million of guaranteed money to a pitcher who has made only one start in the last two years, even if he's a former Cy Young award winner.

Finally, the Cubs have apparently put Tom Gorzelanny on the block, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, and the Tigers have asked about him per Steve Kornacki of MLive.com. 

At first glance, this does not make a lot of sense, as the Cubs would be trading a cheap, left handed and proven starter.  However, Hendry may be trying to sell high on Gorzelanny.  Gorzellany's numbers look pretty good at face value, with a 4.09 ERA and 119 K's in 136 IP.  But his 4.5 BB/9 IP is troubling as is his 1.50 whip for the year.

Not sure what kind of return to expect for a player like Gorzelanny, but perhaps Hendry is trying to use him to acquire a reliever.

I will continue to keep tabs on these and other rumors involving the Cubs as the Winter Meetings wind down over the next couple days, as well as providing you will the results of the Rule 5 draft on Thursday (will Marquez Smith be taken and who will the Cubs pick).  Stay tuned....

A bad contract waiting to happen: Comparing Jayson Werth's contract to Alfonso Soriano's

It was bound to happen at some point.  Once every so often, some GM signs a player to a contract that has people scratching their heads and saying "absolutely bat**** crazy".  This year's "Are you kidding me?" award goes to Nationals GM Mike Rizzo, who signed outfielder Jayson Werth to a 7-year, $126 million contract.

Four years ago, Cubs GM Jim Hendry received a lot of flak for signing outfielder Alfonso Soriano to an 8-year, $136 million contract, which at least one blogger called "the worst contract in baseball history."  Cubs fans are just beginning to understand what that blogger meant, as Soriano's contract is one of the reasons that Hendry options are limited this offseason.
 
At the risk of making Jim Hendry look good, let's compare the two contracts and see which one could end up being the worst contract:

Hitting

Werth had a strong year in 2010, posting the highest OPS mark (.921) of his career.  However, Soriano was coming off his career year, hitting .277/.351/.560 and becoming just the 4th memeber of the 40/40 club along with Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds and Jose Canseco (a Who's Who of the Steroid Era).  That and the fact that he did it in a notorious pitcher's park in Washington was enough to drive up his asking price. 
However, if you look at their career stats at the time of their signings, the picture gets a little muddier.  Werth had the higher career OPS (.848 to .836) and a higher cumulative OPS+ (OPS adjusted for park effects) of 719 to Soriano's 689.  However, Soriano had a higher cumulative oWAR (offensive wins against replacement) of 22.6 to Werth's 15.6.  Werth is hurt by the fact that he didn't become a full-time player until 2008 (when he turned 29) and that he missed his entire age 27 year due to injury.  Soriano is hurt by his inability to take a walk (for a leadoff hitter, no less).

Finally, Soriano averaged more homeruns and stolen bases than Werth, as well as rbi's and runs.  However, this again is skewed by the fact that Werth did not become a full-time starter until later in his career.

Overall, I would give a slight edge here to Soriano.

Defense

This one is a little more difficult to evaluate, as Soriano switched positions in the year before he signed his contract.  In his first 5 full seasons, Soriano played second base and played it badly.  His cumulative dWAR during that time was -7.8.  However, in his one year with Washington, Soriano was moved to left field and posted a respectable 1.6 dWAR.  As the Cubs were signing him as a left fielder, they could overlook his poor play at second and see that he was at least an above average outfielder.

As for Werth, he posted decent dWAR's ranging from 0.3 to 1.3 in his first 4 seasons, before being exposed in 2009 (-0.8) and 2010 (0.0).  Some of this could be attributed to his playing out of position in center field for 33 games in 2009 and 2010, however it doesn't explain the total drop off.

Finally, if you look at their range factors, Soriano's one year RF/9 in left field of 2.28 was better than Werth's career RF/9 in right field of 2.18, and if you look at their final year before they signed, the difference was even greater (2.28 to 1.98).

Overall, evaluating them both as just outfielders, the edge would have to go to Soriano.

Other Factors

When he signed with the Cubs, Soriano was moving from a pitcher's park (0.86 HR park factor) to a hitter's park (1.21 HR park factor), whereas Werth is moving from a hitter's park (1.13 HR park factor) to a pitcher's park (1.00 HR park factor) per ESPN's park factor database.

Also, Soriano signed after his age 30 year for 8 years, wheras Werth is signing after his age 31 year for 7 years, thus both contracts run through their age 38 years.  Werth gets $1 million more per year, but we can chalk that up to inflation. 

Based on the above, one can make the case that Hendry may be off the hook as having signed the "worst contract in baseball history", as Soriano seems to have an edge in each category.  However, as they say in the world of investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results.  As seen with Soriano, knee injuries have taken away his ability to steal bases and hurt his defense, thereby decreasing his value significantly over the last few years. 

It remains to be seen how Werth will perform over the life of his contract, but as is typical with the long-term contracts signed after the age of 30, one would expect that, by year 4 or 5, the Nats will be regretting this contract (if they aren't already).

Red Sox deal to acquire Adrian Gonzalez may fall through: Do the Cubs still have a chance?

By now I'm sure you've heard that the Red Sox reached a tentative agreement to acquired Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez for 4 prospects:  Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and everyone's favortie the PTBNL.  The deal was contingent on the Red Sox reaching an extension with Gonzalez, however Sunday extension deadline passed with no agreement and it appears the deal may fall through (although opinions on this vary).

The Cubs may not have a chance to acquire Gonzalez in either case, as the Padres are saying that they will not field more offers for Gonzalez (at least this winter).  But we at least know what kind of package it will take to acquire the All-Star first baseman.

According to Baseball America's 2011 Top 10 Red Sox prospects rankings, Kelly, Rizzo and Fuentes ranked #1, 3 and 6 on that list.  Baseball America hasn't come out with the Cubs Top 10 list yet, but that would be the equivalent of the Cubs trading Brett Jackson, Chris Archer and Hak-Ju Lee for Gonzalez.  In other words, its a pretty steep price in terms of prospects.

If I were Jim Hendry, I would be reluctant to part with those prospects, even for a player Gonzalez' caliber (and who I think would just explode at Wrigley).  I'm sure that Hendry would be reluctant to make that trade too, especially with the Ricketts' emphasizing developing players from within. 

Thus, with Gonzalez' price likely too steep for Hendry, he is back to checking out other options.  Carlos Pena remains an option and the Cubs apparently checked in on the Dodgers' James Loney, however its not clear if Loney is even available.

Chances are the Cubs will have to settle for Carlos Pena.  If its a one year deal, that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.  Problem is, many Cub fans were hoping for more.

Cub Legend Ron Santo passed away last night at the age of 70

According to Paul Sullivan of Chicago Breaking Sports, Cubs legend and broadcaster Ron Santo passed away Thursday night.

My thoughts and prayers go out to Santo's family and friends. 

Cub Nation will miss him.

Jeff Baker signed and Koyie Hill tendered - Does this mean there is a trade looming?

Paul Sullivan of Chicago Breaking Sports is reporting that the Cubs have signed Jeff Baker to a 1 year $1.175 million contract.  In addition, the Cubs have offered Koyie Hill arbitration, meaning that neither player was non-tendered.

Thus, the Cubs now have 4 catchers on their 40-man roster, which is one too many.  This makes me think that we may be seeing Texas' Chris Davis in a Cubs uniform soon.

With Geovany Soto returning to form and under team control for at least 3 more years, the Cubs may feel they can part with one of their catching prospects and trade either Welington Castillo or Robinson Chirinos to Texas for Davis. 

It would be a deal from strength for both the Cubs and Texas, as Davis is blocked at first by Mitch Moreland.  Given that Davis will only make a little over $400K next year, acquiring him would allow Jim Hendry more payroll flexibility to sign the starter and right handed reliever he covets.

The picture should become more clear during next week's Winter Meetings, but I have to believe the Cubs will not head into the 2011 season with 4 catchers on their roster.

Adam Dunn heading to the South Side

The White Sox signed Adam Dunn today to a 4-year, $56 million contract.  This should allow Dunn to show off his defensive versatility for the Sox, as he can now play DH, DH or DH for them.

If you watched "The Club" on the MLB Network, you know that Kenny Williams was hot after Dunn at the trade deadline this year, but was not able to reach an agreement with the Nats.

Now, Williams has finally got his man. 

As a result of the signing, the Nats will get the Sox's 23rd pick in next year's draft.

Now, without that distraction around, the Cubs can go back to trying to find a first baseman who can actually catch the ball.

Chicago Cubs Rule 5 Draft Preview

With the Rule 5 draft taking place during next week's Winter Meetings, Baseball America (pay site) has come out with its annual preview of the event.  As expected, Cubs prospect Marquez Smith is listed as one of the players who could be selected next week.  Although I still think it was a mistake to leave Smith off the 40-man roster, doing so left the Cubs with one open roster spot and therefore the ability to make a selection in next week's draft.

Due to their poor performance on the field in 2010, the Cubs will have the 9th overall selection in the Rule 5 draft.  Based on the available talent, I think the Cubs will most likely go with a right handed pitcher to give them some bullpen depth, but its possible they could also select a second baseman to give Blake DeWitt and Darwin Barney some competition. 

Based on those assumptions, here are some players who I think could interest the Cubs:

Wynn Pelzer, rhp, Baltimore - Pelzer posted a 4.25 ERA and 103 K's in 114.1 IP this year.  He throws hard and has been mentioned by Baseball America in the past as a potential closer. 

Aneury Rodriguez, rhp, Tampa Bay - used mostly as a starter in the minors, the Cubs could hide him in the big league pen for a year as a swing man/long reliever.  He had a combined 3.71 ERA and 100 K's in 123.2 IP this year.  Baseball America projects him as a number 4 or 5 starter.

Adam Miller, rhp, Cleveland - Miller hasn't pitched since 2008, due to finger tendon issues, but is a former top prospect and the Cubs could take a chance with him.  If he shows he's ready in spring training, the Cubs may have found themselves another potential setup man.

Kyle Waldrop, rhp, Minnesota - Waldrop had a 2.57 ERA in 87.2 IP in AAA this year.  He doesn't miss a lot of bats (just 60 K's), but he does induce a lot of ground balls (3.73 G/F ratio).  Might be a nice guy to bring in from the pen when the Cubs need a double play.

If the Cubs decide to go with a second baseman, two names stick out:

Brad Emaus, 2b/3b, Toronto - Baseball America compares him to Dan Uggla, as an offensive-minded second baseman.  He hit .290/.397/.476 at AAA this year and could give DeWitt/Barney some competition for the second base job.

Ryan Adams, 2b, Baltimore - another offensive-minded second baseman, Adams hit .298/.365/.464 at AA this year.  Like Emaus, he is a below average defender and according to Baseball America, scouts say he has a lackadaisical approach. 

With so many question marks in their bullpen, my guess is that the Cubs will select a pitcher in the Rule 5 draft.  Pelzer would be a nice selection, if he lasts that long.  If not, then Miller might be a nice, low-risk, high-upside pick.

Non-tender Candidates: Koyie Hill and Jeff Baker

For those of you who might not keep track of this stuff, tomorrow is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players who are arbitration eligible.  What this means is, if a team wants to keep a player for next year, they must tender him a contract, otherwise, if they "non-tender" him, he becomes a free agent.

The Cubs have 6 players eligible for arbitration this year:  Geovany Soto, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny, Jeff Baker and Koyie Hill.  It is assumed that the Cubs will tender contracts to Soto, Marmol, Marshall and Gorzelanny.  Each of these players should see a significant jump in their salaries for 2011 as a result of the arbitration process (or through contract negotiations). 

Thus, the cost consious Cubs may be looking for ways to save money.  One way to do so would be to non-tender Jeff Baker and/or Koyie Hill.  Baker made $975K last year and Hill made $700K.  Both would be expected to get raises for 2011 if they ended up going to arbitration (no one has ever lost money in arbitration).  However, the Cubs have some younger, cheaper options in Darwin Barney and either Welington Castillo or Robinson Chirinos. 

By going with the rookies (who only need to be paid the league minimum of about $400K), the Cubs could potentially save around $1.2 million.  It may not seem like a lot, but it could be the difference in landing the right haded setup man that the Cubs crave.

The Cubs have been talking to the agents of Baker and Hill, but if the asking prices are too high for their liking, the Cubs will let them walk. 

My guess is that the Cubs tender a contract to Jeff Baker, but decide to non-tender Koyie Hill.  Baker is a usefull utility player who hits lefties well.  Hill, on the other hand, is a decent defensive backstop, but offers little offense.  With Castillo and Chirinos coming up behind him, there is no need to pay Hill close to a million dollars when they can get the same production (or better) from one of the rookies.