Potential 2011 Cubs Starting Lineups

I know the World Series is just starting and we still a little ways off from free agency, but I couldn't help thinking about what the Cubs lineup might look like next year.

There's been a lot of speculation as to what Jim Hendry will do this offseason:  will he try to make a big splash or will he look internally to fill the Cubs holes?  Only time will tell, but here is how the Cubs lineup could look under those two scenarios and a couple in-between.

The "All-in" Option (aka the "we're only one piece from contending" option)

If Hendry is going to make a big splash this offseason, there is really only one name that fits the bill:  Adam Dunn.  Its uncertain if the Cubs will have the money to land Dunn, but he would be the lefthanded power hitter that Hendry thought he was getting when he signed Milton Bradley.

Should Dunn join the Cubs, then Tyler Colvin would stay in right field and Kosuke Fukudome would be the Cubs 4th outfielder.  Thus, your fielders would be:  Geovany Soto (Catcher), Dunn (first), Blake DeWitt (second), Starlin Castro (short), Aramis Ramirez (third), Alfonso Soriano (left), Marlon Byrd (Center) and Tyler Colvin (right).

Based on that starting 8, here's how I would set the lineup:

1. Marlon Byrd
2. Starlin Castro
3. Aramis Ramirez
4. Adam Dunn
5. Alfonso Soriano
6. Tyler Colvin
7. Geovany Soto
8. Blake DeWitt
9. pitcher

Signing Dunn would allow the Cubs to move Byrd to leadoff, where he has had success in the past.  I like Castro in the 2 hole, as he makes good contact and could be a good hit-and-run guy.

The only question mark in Ramirez in the 3rd spot.  This is assuming he bounces back from his down year in 2010, if not, then the Cubs might have to move Byrd to the 3rd spot and put DeWitt in the second spot.

The Mid-Tier Option (aka the "let's make it look like we're trying to contend so as to not drive away the fans" option).

If the Cubs decided not to pursue Adam Dunn, they could go after someone like Adrian Beltre (with Ramirez moving to first) or Adam LaRoche.  Sure, it wouldn't be as flashy as an Adam Dunn, but it would at least give the appearance that they are trying to compete.

If they were to sign either of those players, here's how I would fill out the lineup card:

1. Starlin Castro
2. Blake DeWitt
3. Marlon Byrd
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Adrian Beltre/Adam LaRoche
6. Alfonso Soriano
7. Tyler Colvin
8. Geovany Soto
9. pitcher

The biggest question marks here are DeWitt in the 2 hole, however I am hard-pressed to find a more suitable guy, and Ramirez in the cleanup spot (he has to prove himself worthy of reclaiming that spot).

The Low-end Option (aka the "lets sign a token free agent and hope that fans keep showing up to the games" option)

The premise here is that Hendry goes out and signs a free agent to give themselves a bit of an upgrade at a position, such as signing Orlando Hudson to play second over DeWitt.

If the Cubs go this route, here's how I would stack the lineup:

1. Starlin Castro
2. Orlando Hudson
3. Marlon Byrd
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Alfonso Soriano
6. Tyler Colvin
7. Geovany Soto
8. Kosuke Fukudome
9. pitcher

This of course assumes that, by not signing a free agent first baseman, Tyler Colvin would shift to first and Fukudome would regain the right field job.  Again, you would still have the same questions surrounding Ramirez and whether Hudson would be a good second hitter (Fukudome could also hit second, as he does get on base).

The Do Nothing Option (aka the "we're officially rebuilding" option)

In this scenario, Tyler Colvin moves to first, Kosuke Fukudome plays right and the Cubs do not look to make any offensive upgrades.

If the Cubs go in this direction, here's how I would set the lineup:

1. Starlin Castro
2. Kosuke Fukudome
3. Marlon Byrd
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Alfonso Soriano
6. Tyler Colvin
7. Geovany Soto
8. Blake DeWitt
9. pitcher

This is not far off from the lineup that Mike Quade used down the stretch, with the exception of Fukudome and Castro being flipped in the 1st and 2nd spots.

In any case, none of these lineups scream "offensive juggernaut" and all of them assume a resurgence by Aramis Ramirez, which is certainly not a given.  Thus, my preference would be to do nothing this offseason.  Instead, wait for some more of the bloated contracts to come off the books after the 2011 season in hopes of landing someone like Adrian Gonzalez to be the key player to build around going forward.

Minor League Review: Iowa Cubs

The Iowa Cubs, led by manager Ryne Sandberg, finished with a record of 82-62, tied with Memphis for best in the league.  Unfortunately, Memphis was in the same division as Iowa and made the playoffs over the Cubs by virtue of a tiebreaker.

As with most AAA teams, Iowa's roster was filled with a mixture of prospects and AAAA "organizational depth" type players.  Here is a breakdown of some of the top hitters from both categories.

Prospects

Darwin Barney - Barney hit .299/.333/.378 for Iowa and impressed the Cubs in a late-season promotion.  Barney played mostly short for Iowa, but is capable of playing second and third as well.  He could battle Blake DeWitt for the Cubs' starting second base job, but is more likely to be the Cubs utility player.

Marquez Smith - with Josh Vitters struggling at AA, Smith may have moved ahead of him on the Cubs third base depth chart.  Smith hit .317/.384/.574 for Iowa with 17 HR's in just 303 AB's.  If the Cubs cannot find another option when Aramis Ramirez moves on, Smith could be starting at third for the Cubs in 2012.

Wellington Castillo - the Cubs former top catching prospect, Castillo has seen his stock drop in recent years.  He bounced back a little in 2010 with a .255/.317/.498 line, including 13 HR's (in just 239 AB's) and received a September callup as a result.  He's got a cannon arm (39% caught stealing) and could become the backup catcher for the Cubs in 2011.

Chris Robinson - Robinson split time with Castillo at catcher with Castillo playing in 68 games to Robinson's 66.  After a strong 2009 season in which he hit .326/.345/.435 at Iowa, Robinson struggled to the tune of .248/.300/.326 in 2010.  He also has a strong arm, but was only able to throw out 19% of basestealers in 2010.  He profiles as a backup catcher.

James Adduci - after sneaking into the Cubs Top 30 Prospects list (by Baseball America) at number 30, Adduci struggled in his first taste of AAA with a .248/.302/.302 line.  He doesn't have much power, but he has good speed (he led the team with 23 SB's) and can play all 3 outfield spots.  He will seek a spot on the Cubs roster in 2011 as a backup outfielder.

Matt Camp - a 13th round pick in 2006, Camp was Iowa's utility infielder in 2010, splitting time at second (55 games), third (41 games) and short (33 games).  Along the way he hit a respectable .264/.335/.323.  Nonetheless, he profiles as a utility infielder, at best.

AAAA Guys

Although these guys are a bit old to be considered prospects, they still had good years with Iowa and are worth keeping an eye on in case one of them turn out to be the next Casey McGehee.

Brad Snyder - Snyder, who turned 28 during the season, hit .308/.381/.568 and led the team in doubles (37),  HR's (25), Rbi's (106) and runs (97).  A former 1st round pick (18th overall) by the Cleveland Indians, Snyder never got a shot with them, but finally made his big league debut this September appearing in 12 games.  He is definitely one player to keep an eye on next Spring.

Bryan LaHair - LaHair, who will be 28 in November, put up similar numbers to Snyder, hitting .308/.385/.557.  He tied Snyder for the team lead in HR's, despite 55 fewer AB's.  He wasn't drafted as highly as Snyder (only 39th round in 2002), but could make some noise for the big club in 2011.

Micah Hoffpauir - Hoffpauir is 30 and has been a regular at AAA since 2005.  He is a career .294/.356/.510 at AAA, but has only hit .251/.312/.421 in 359 major league AB's.  He is the epitome of a AAAA player, but could be a useful pinch hitter in the bigs.

Sam Fuld - Fuld is a player that many Cubs fans should be familiar with.  He filled in admirably (.299/.409/.412) when Milton Bradley was injured in 2009, but only saw limited action with the Cubs in 2010 (28 AB's).  He hit .272/.383/.394 at Iowa this year and provides good depth, but is unlikely to ever earn a starting job.

Pitching

On the pitching side, there were more true prospects to choose from, as most pitchers make a stop at AAA before reaching the big leagues.  Here's a look at some of Iowa's noteworthy pitchers for 2010:

Jay Jackson - the Cubs 5th best prospect, as determined by Baseball America, heading into the season, Jackson's season was a tale of two halves.  He had a strong first half of the season (3.64 ERA) before losing it in the second half (6.20 ERA).  He was successful in a brief experiment as a reliever at Iowa (1.17 ERA in 15.1 IP) before returning to full time starting in the second half and one wonders if the relief experiment affected him somehow.

Casey Coleman - Coleman pitched well at Iowa (4.07 ERA in 117.1 IP) and earned a promotion to the bigs where he posted a 4.11 ERA in 57 IP.  He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but does have an excellent changeup and will have to rely on control to be successful.  He should be the Cubs 6th or 7th starter for 2011.

Jeff Samardzija - fans are probably wondering if Samardzija will go down as the Cubs worst draft pick and signing in history as he has failed to live up to his lofty expectations to this point.  He has split time between starter and reliever at both the big league and minor league level the last few years and it may have hampered his development.  For the record, Jeff pitched better as a starter this year at Iowa with a 4.33 ERA in 15 starts, including 76 K's in 81 IP.

Thomas Diamond - another former first round pick getting a second chance with the Cubs, Diamond pitched briliantly for Iowa with a 3.16 ERA and 104 K's in 108.1 IP.  He was not able to repeat that success in the majors, as walks got the best of him (18 in 29 IP) and led to a 6.83 ERA.  However, he did strike out 36 batters in those 29 innings, giving some a ray of hope.

Brian Schlitter - Brian had a fine season at AAA with a 3.15 ERA and 42 K's in 45.2 IP.  He also led Iowa in saves with 13.  However, he absolutely got hammered in his brief taste of the bigs (12.38 ERA in 8 IP).  He'll likely return to Iowa to start 2011 and will serve as bullpen depth.

Jeff Stevens - Stevens finished second in saves with 10, while posting a 3.16 ERA and 43 K's in 42.2 IP.  He fared a little better than Schlitter in his brief stint in the bigs (6.11 ERA in 17.2 IP), but is also probably nothing more than bullpen depth.

John Gaub - rated as the Cubs 14th best prospect (and one of my personal favorites), Gaub struggled with his command at Iowa (25 walks in 29 IP) leading to a 6.52 ERA.  He ended up leaving the team for "personal reasons" and his status for 2011 is unknown at this time.

Mike Parisi - the Cubs picked up Parisi as a rule 5 pick last December from the Cardinals.  He struggled at Iowa with an 8.50 ERA in 18 IP before undergoing surgery in May to remove a bone chip from his elbow, which may have contributed to his struggles.  He should be fully recovered by next Spring.

Next week I will present my list of the 2011 Cubs Top 10 Prospects.

Minor League Review: Tennessee Smokies

Due to my "other" job getting in the way last week, I was unable to complete my review of the AA Tennessee Smokies.  Therefore, to make up for it, I will be posting back-to-back MLR's today and tomorrow, starting with Tennessee today and Iowa tomorrow.

Tennessee had the best overall record in the Southern League at 86-53 and won both halves of the season.  They advanced to the championship series before eventually losing to Jacksonville in 4 games.

Hitting

Tennessee was the best hitting team in the league with a .284 ave. and also led the league in runs (749), HR's (120), OBP (.353) and SLG (.441).  With such a potent offense, there were too many offensive stars to just select a handful to profile, therefore I will go through them all, by position.

Catcher - the catching position featured the two-headed monster of Robinson Chirinos and Steve Clevenger who combined to hit .318 with 20 HR's, 48 doubles,  111 rbi's and score 90 runs.  Clevenger hit .372 against right handers and .317/.367/.461 overall.  Chirinos supplied most of the power (15 HR's) and hit .318/.412/.580 overall.  He earned a late promotion to Iowa, where he hit .364/.435/.600 in 15 games and is regarded as the Cubs best catching prospect, despite being a little old (26).

First base - Signed as a non-drafted free agent, Blake Lalli has shown the ability to hit for average (.306 career ave.) and get on base (.369 career OBP), but has shown little power (.417 career SLG).  His 2010 number were no different, with a slash line of .311/.403/.389.  At best he would be a first baseman in the mould of Mark Grace.  At worst, he would be a good pinch hitter.

Second base - Tony Thomas, the Cubs 3rd round pick in 2007, had a fine season in 2010 with a .276/.338/.485 line.  He showed good speed, leading the team with 11 triples and stealing 15 bases, while only being caught 2 times.  He should get his first taste of AAA in 2011.

Shortstop - Cubs uber-prospect Starlin Castro started the season as the Smokies shortstop and proceeded to hit .376/.421/.569 in 26 games before being promoted to the Cubs.  Nate Sampson (.262/.307/.309) and Marwin Gonzalez (.246/.284/.341) split the shortstop duties after Castro's promotion, but you would be hard pressed to call either of them a prospect.

Third Base - Josh Vitters manned the hot corner for Tennessee in 2010 and his struggles this season (.223/.292/.383) have already been well documented by me (and others).  Needless to say, he will need a strong season next year to regain his top prospect status.  With Vitters getting injured mid-season, Russ Canzler also saw significant time at third, putting up an impressive .287/.372/.566 line.  He led the team with 21 HR's in only 355 AB's, however he also committed 17 errors in 56 games at third and may be better suited for first base or one of the outfield corners.

Left Field - A 7th round selection in the 2007 draft, Ty Wright started 72 games in left for the Smokies, hitting .298/.339/.474 with 10 HR's before being promoted to Iowa.  He was replaced by Cubs Minor League Player of the Year Brandon Guyer, who split time at all 3 OF spots (42 games in left, 15 in center and 51 in right).  Guyer hit .344/.398/.588, leading the team in average and doubles (39), while finishing second in SB's (30).

Center Field - Tony Campana was the main man in the middle for the Smokies, hitting a sparkling .319/.378/.384 and leading the team with 48 SB's.  While he doesn't have much power, Campana has speed to burn, with 136 SB's in 282 career minor league games.

Right Field - A former 3rd round pick by the Phillies in 2007, Matthew Spencer started 77 games in right for Tennessee.  While his overall line of .268/.333/.454 is not very exciting, he did finish second on the team with 17 HR's and added 10 SB's to boot.

Pitching

The tremendous hitting wasn't the only thing going for this team as the pitching staff finished 3rd in team ERA (3.71).  There were plenty of notable pitching performances to choose from, but here are some of the highlights.

Chris Carpenter - Rated the Cubs 8th best prospect by Baseball America heading into the season, Carpenter was one of the best pitchers for the Smokies going 8-6 with a 3.16 ERA.  He used his heavy fastball to induce a 1.78 GO/AO ratio and also struck out 100 in his 119.2 IP.  After struggling in 3 late-season starts at AAA Iowa, he will likely return there to start 2011.

Craig Muschko - a 22nd round pick in 2007, Muschko led the team in IP (143.1) and wins (9), while posting a 3.77 ERA and 103 K's.  Muschko has excellent control (1.69 BB/9 IP) and, while he doesn't have overpowering stuff, he could fit nicely in a 4th or 5th starter role.

Hung-Wen Chen - signed out of Taiwan, Chen finished second among the starters with a 2.96 ERA and 8 wins.  He doesn't have a high strikeout rate (just 5.4 per 9 IP), but does keep the walks down (2.1 BB/9 IP).

Austin Bibens-Dirkx - Dirkx has battled injuries the last few years, but had a relatively healthy year in 2010 and compiled a 3.27 ERA in 85.1 IP with Tennessee.  He held opponent's to a .196 average while giving up only 59 hits.  He struggled some after a promotion to Iowa (4.61 ERA in 52.2 IP) and will start there in 2011.

Jeremy Papplebon - the younger brother of Boston's Jonathan Papplebon, Jeremy has not lived up to his brother's high standards.  He struggled this year with a 5.54 ERA in 76.1 IP as well as elbow issues.  He will likely need to return to Tennessee to prove himself healthy.

Chris Archer - although I discussed him in my Daytona write-up, Archer deserves another mention for his performance at Tennessee.  Archer led the starters with a 1.80 ERA and was second in wins, despite only pitching a half season with the Smokies.

David Cales - Cales, a former 24th round pick in 2008, led the team with 10 saves while posting a 2.51 ERA in 46.2 IP.  He struggled after a promotion to Iowa (6.67 ERA in 27 IP) and will return there for the start of the 2011 season.

Stay tuned tomorrow for my review of the Iowa Cubs and be on the lookout next week as I present my Top 10 Cubs Prospects list.

AFL Update: Vitters off to slow start

The Arizona Fall League got underway a couple weeks ago and with the teams nearly one third of the way through their season, I figured it would be a good time to check in on how the Cubs representatives are doing.

Josh Vitters - one of the Cubs top prospects last year, is trying to reestablish himself after a down year at AA Tennessee this year.  So far though, he hasn't shown much in the AFL, hitting just .242/.278/.394 in 33 AB's.

Ryan Flaherty - started out slow as well, hitting just .231 in his first 9 games before going 3 for 3 last night.  He is now hitting .310/.429/.379 with 6 walks in his 10 games.

Chris Carpenter has fared the best of the Cubs pitching representatives with a 2.70 ERA and 6 K's in 6.2 IP.

Kyle Smit has also fared well, if somewhat lucky, with a 2.84 ERA in 6.1 IP, despite 6 walks.

David Cales has done OK with a 3.86 ERA in 4.2 IP

Jake Muyco has been hit kinda hard with a 4.50 ERA while giving up 10 hits and 3 walks in his 6 IP.

If you are aware of the AFL rosters, you will notice one name missing from the above list in Brett Jackson.  Arguably the Cubs top prospect, Jackson missed the start of the AFL as he was named to the USA Baseball team that finished tied for 3rd in the Pan Am qualifier.  During the tournament, Jackson served as backup center fielder to another highly touted prospect, Mike Trout, and went 6 for 9 with a HR and 6 rbi's.

Another Cubs prospect who played for Team USA is the Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Chris Archer.  Archer didn't show any signs of slowing down, as he went 1-0 in his two starts with a 2.70 ERA and 15 K's in 10 IP.

Cubs bullpen options for 2011

Last offseason, Jim Hendry had 3 primary goals:  (1) Trade Milton Bradley, (2) find a center fielder and (3) find a setup man (preferably righthanded).  While 2 out of 3 ain't bad for Meatloaf, it was pretty bad for the Cubs.

The Cubs bullpen struggled out of the gate, with the anointed setup man, Esmailin Caridad, pitching poorly and then spending most of the year on the DL with forearm and elbow issues.  In addition, John Grabow, who Hendry felt worthy of a two-year, $7.5 million contract, also pitched poorly and spent the majority of the season on the DL with a knee injury.

After losing Caridad and Grabow, the Cubs tried everything to shore up their bullpen, from rookies (Andrew Cashner, Justin Berg and James Russell), a AAAA guy (Jeff Samardzija), a retread (Bob Howry) and even their "Ace" (Carlos Zambrano), but nothing worked.

The only good pitchers out of the bullpen were Sean Marshall (who ended up becoming the Cubs setup man) and closer Carlos Marmol.

Its clear that the Cubs need to add another veteran arm or two in their bullpen, if they expect to be competitive next year.  Since the Cubs have pretty much exhausted their internal options, it appears that they will need to look outside their organization (via free agency or trade) to bolster their bullpen.

Free Agents

1. Jon Rauch - Rauch saved 21 games for the Twins this year before being replaced by Capps.  He has a career 3.53 ERA as a reliever.
2. Chad Qualls - after posting a 3.32 ERA from 2004-2009, Qualls had a disappointing season in 2010 with a 7.32 ERA.  The Cubs could probably sign him on a cheap one year deal plus incentives, but one has to wonder what caused his problems in 2010.
3. Frank Francisco - another former closer, Francisco saved 25 games in 2009.  Francisco has put up good numbers in Texas (3.75 career ERA), despite pitching half his games in a hitters park.
4. Brian Fuentes - he is getting a little old (he turns 36 next August) but once again proved himself as a valuable reliever, with a 2.81 ERA this season.  However, he pitches left handed and the Cubs may prefer signing a righthander.
5. Octavio Dotel - he started the year as the Pirates' closer and was subsequently traded to the Dodgers and then the Rockies.  He too is getting old (he will be 37 to start next season), but has proven he can still be effective (4.08 ERA and 75 K's in 64 IP).
6. Rafael Soriano - likely the best reliever on the free agent market this offseason, he will probably be too expensive for the Cubs' taste.
7. Kerry Wood/Kevin Gregg - the Cubs have been down this road before and will likely pass.
8. A bevy of middle relievers - there is always an abundance of middle relievers on the market each year and the Cubs could sign one or two of them to add some depth and expience to their squad.

Trade Candidates

1. Heath Bell - despite contending this year, the Padres could look to shed some payroll this offseason and Bell is a logical choice to trade.  Not only will he be heading into his third and final year of arbitration, where he is likely to get a significant raise from his current $4 million salary, but the Padres have plenty of other options to be their closer.  However, I don't think he would be happy in a setup role for Marmol.
2. Matt Capps - the Cubs lost out on Capps last offseason when he ended up signing with the Nationals.  After spending half a season as the Nats closer, he was traded to the Twins.  However, with Joe Nathan set to return as the Twins closer in 2011, Capps could become expendable.
3. Francisco Rodriguez - the Mets could look to trade Rodriguez this offseason, especially after he hurt himself in a domestic dispute in August and missed the rest of the year with a torn ligament in his thumb.  Perhaps a Fukudome for Rodriguez trade would work?

My preference would be for the Cubs to sign Chad Qualls to an incentive laden one year contract with an option year at a reasonable price ($3-4 million per year).  This would give Qualls a chance to prove himself again and the Cubs the opportunity to hold onto him for another year, if he does bounce back.

This would be the best scenario for the Cubs as they are unlikely to contend next year, but could keep Qualls around should they think of themselves as a contender for 2012.

The Cubs could then wait out the free agent middle relievers in hopes of signing one or two to a cheap deal or a minor league deal and thereby add some veteran depth to the bullpen.

Cubs hire Quade: Will Sandberg become the next Girardi?

A little over 4 years ago, the Cubs hired Lou Piniella to manage the Cubs, with Jim Hendry picking him over Joe Girardi.  The thinking at the time was that Hendry wanted someone with major league experience.

Today, the Cubs announced the hiring of Mike Quade as the next manager of the Cubs, passing over Ryne Sandberg (and others).  Already there is speculation as to whether they chose the right guy.  An informal poll on the Tribune website shows 52% of those who voted saying that Quade is not the right hire.  In addition, Phil Rogers of the Tribune says Quade's worthy, but Sandberg deserved it.

Obviously, Sandberg is disappointed and will seek other jobs.  Chances are we will never see Sandberg as the Cubs manager.  Like Joe Girardi, that ship has likely sailed.  My fear is that, just like Girardi, Sandberg will go on to be a successful manager of another team, while Quade fails to repeat his late season success and is gone after his two years are up.

Don't get me wrong, I hope that Quade is successful and has a long run with the Cubs, but I think he is in a tough spot as he will be under intense scrutiny and everyone will constantly wonder if Sandberg would have been a better choice.

Of course, if Quade manages to win a World Series title with the Cubs, he will be a hero.  However, given the Cubs history, the chances of that happening are pretty slim.

Cubs place 6 players on Baseball America's League Top 20 lists

Baseball America wrapped up the League Top 20 prospects lists this week and the Cubs had 6 players mentioned, with 2 players making two lists.

Here are the players who made the list:

2010 League Top Prospects

1. Austin Reed, P, Arizona League (ranked #11)
2. Trey McNutt, P, Midwest League (#7)
3. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Midwest League (#13)
4. Chris Archer, P, Florida State League (#2), Southern League (#9)
5. Brett Jackson, OF, Florida State League (#7), Southern League (#8)
6. Brandon Guyer, OF, Southern League (#14)

Not too shabby, however not quite as good as last year, when the Cubs had 9 prospects make the lists, as follows:

2009 League Top Prospects

1. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Northwest League (#1)
2. Brett Jackson, OF, Northwest League (#3)
3. Logan Watkins, 2B/SS, Northwest League (#19)
4. Josh Vitters, 3B, Midwest League (#3), Florida State League (#14)
5. Chris Archer, P, Midwest League (#16)
6. Chris Carpenter, P, Midwest League (#20)
7. Starlin Castro, SS, Florida State League (#6)
8. Jay Jackson, P, Southern League (#11)
9. Jeff Samardzija, P, International League (#16)

I think this is a testament to the depth of the Cubs farm system.  Anytime you can get more than 5 prospects mentioned on these lists, its a good thing.  Also, I wouldn't worry too much about the drop off from 2009 to 2010, as Castro didn't spend enough time in the minors to be considered.  In addition, Samardzija's and Vitters down years were offset by the emergence of Trey McNutt and Brandon Guyer.

Overall the Cubs farm system is on the rise and Jim Hendry should be commended for making it happen.

Managerial search update: Decision looming?

The Cubs keep moving forward with their managerial search, as according to multiple sources, Tom Ricketts has interviewed Mike Quade, Ryne Sandberg and Eric Wedge.  He is likely to meet with Bob Melvin as well.

Paul Sullivan of the Tribune suggests that the search is nearing its conclusion and gives us a pros and cons look at each of the 5 candidates (including Joe Girardi).  Gordon Wittenmyer takes it a step further and says that "several insiders" expect an announcement before the World Series "unless Girardi joins the mix".

Phil Rogers suggests, as a lot of people already believe, that the Cubs are waiting on Joe Girardi.  While Steve Rosenbloom says why not wait "if nobody else wants their candidates".

The risk in waiting for Girardi is that you might alienate the other candidates by making them feel like they are "plan B", should Girardi decline the job.  However, if no one is calling the Cubs requesting permission to talk to Quade or Sandberg, then the Cubs can drag their feet as much as they want in this process.  Its not like the other candidates don't know what's going on anyway.

So, even though it appears that Quade has become the "surprise heavy favorite", according to Jon Heyman, the Cubs are in no hurry to make an announcement as they hold out hope for Joe Girardi.

Sorting out the Cubs outfield logjam for 2011 and beyond.

The Cubs head towards the offseason with a bit of a quandary on their hands.  As it stands right now, the Cubs have 4 outfielders capable of starting at the major league level, as well as some talented young outfielders in the farm system, who are waiting for their chance.

The job of sorting out all these outfielders lies squarely on Jim Hendry's shoulders.  Here's a look at his options for 2011 and beyond.

2011

Currently the Cubs have 4 major league outfielders under contract for 2011, Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukudome and Tyler Colvin.  Soriano and Byrd are pretty much locks to starts, which leaves Fukudome and Colvin vying for the rightfield job.

There are basically two options for Hendry, trade Fukudome or move Colvin to first.

Trading Fukudome is easier said than done.  He is owed $13.5 million next year, (thankfully) the last year of his contract.  The Cubs would likely have to eat a good chunk of that (at least 50%) to be rid of him.  Also, it should be noted that Fukudome was made available this season, with no takers.

As for moving Colvin to first, there was a lot of discussion about trying him out at first towards the end of the season, but Mike Quade nixed that idea.  Colvin still took a lot of groundballs at first and could still move there in 2011, however I don't think its likely.

Here's how I see it playing out.  Hendry will make a run at Adam Dunn during the offseason, while also trying to dump Fukudome on some poor, unsuspecting GM (maybe Seattle will take him?).  If they don't land Dunn or he is deemed too expensive, the Cubs may go after a lower tiered free agent, such as Adam LaRoche or maybe even resign Xavier Nady.  Colvin moving to first will only be used as a last resort.

2012 and beyond

One way or another, the Cubs will be rid of Fukudome before the 2012 season.  However, the Cubs have two top prospects in Brett Jackson and Brandon Guyer (the Cubs minor league player of the year), who both could be major-league ready by then.  If Colvin is playing first, then Jackson can take over the center field job in 2012 with Byrd moving to right.

However, if the Cubs have someone else manning first, then with Marlon Byrd signed through 2012 and Colvin in right field, chances are Jackson will have to wait until 2013 to get his shot.  As for Guyer, although the left handed hitting Colvin has not shown any discernible lefty/righty splits in his first year, its possible he could platoon with the right handed Guyer.  Otherwise, Guyer could end up as a fourth outfielder.

That leaves left field and the albatross that is Soriano.  Signed through 2014 with little likelihood of being traded, the Cubs will have 4 years to watch as his skills deteriorate, possibly to the point where maybe Guyer or Jackson take his starting spot.

However, by the time 2014 comes around the Cubs could have two more prospects to add to the mix.  The top name on the list is 2010 2nd round pick Reggie Golden.  Golden played only 4 games this year after signing, but projects as a possible 5-tool player.

The other prospect to keep an eye on is 2010 5th round pick Matt Szczur.  Szczur possesses plus speed and can play all three outfield positions.  Assuming the Cubs don't go outside the organization, Szczur and Golden could compete for the 2015 starting left field job.

Here's how I project the starting outfield through 2015:

2011-2012 - Soriano (left), Byrd (center), Colvin (right)

2013-2014 - Soriano (left), Jackson (center), Colvin (right)

2015 - Golden (left), Jackson (center), Colvin (right)

Minor League Review: Daytona Cubs

OK, now we are getting into the meat of the Cubs minor league system.  The Daytona Cubs featured 9 of the Cubs top 30 (preseason) prospects (according to Baseball America).  The team finished with an overall record of 75-64, 4th best in the league.  Here's a look at how some of the Cubs hitting and pitching prospects fared in the league.

Hitters

Brett Jackson, OF - the Cubs 1st round pick in 2009 and the 2nd best prospect (behind Starlin Castro) heading into the season, Jackson didn't disappoint.  He put up a .316/.420/.517 line in a half season at Daytona.  He received a mid-season promotion to AA and had a decent showing there (.276/.366/.465), giving him a .295/.395/.493 line for the year.  Jackson is heading to the Arizona Fall leauge and could start the 2011 season at AAA Iowa.  He could be the Cubs centerfielder as soon as 2012.

D.J. LeMahieu, 2B - the Cubs 2nd round pick in 2009 and 10th best prospect overall, LeMahieu is a line-drive hitter who uses the whole field.  He doesn't draw many walks (29 in 583 plate appearances), but he doesn't strike out a lot either (just 61 K's on the season).  He will move up to AA Tennessee in 2011, along with double play partner Junior Lake.

Ryan Flaherty, 3B - picked in the supplemental (compensation) round of the 2008 draft and the Cubs 9th best prospect, Flaherty hit .286/.348/.445 with Daytona.  He earned a promotion to AA Tennessee, when Vitters got injured, but hit only .183/.286/.254 in 23 games there.  He will spend this fall in the AFL and looks to improve upon his return to AA in 2011.

Kyler Burke, OF - a former 1st round pick of the Padres in 2006 and rated as the Cubs 11th best prospect, Burke had a season to forget at Daytona.   He hit just .212/.279/.328 on the year.  He's only 22, so he still has some time, but he will likely head back to Daytona to start 2011 and will have to prove he can handle the assignment before moving up.

Junior Lake, SS - signed out of the Dominican Republic, Lake bounced back from a sub-par year in 2009 to put up decent number in 2010 (.264/.333/.398).  He will move up to AA in 2011 and if he continues to improve his approach at the plate, he could work himself into the Cubs middle infield picture by 2013.

Michael Brenly, C - the son of Cubs broadcaster Bob Brenly, Michael proved this year that he wasn't just another nepotism pick, hitting .270/.333/.354 and earning Post-season All Star honors in the Florida State League.  A 36th round pick in 2008, Brenly will have to continue to prove himself, but should move up to AA to start 2011.

Rebel Ridling, 1B - a 25th round pick in 2008, Ridling had kind of a down year in 2010, hitting only .267/.312/.426 after putting up a .310/.357/.466 line in 2009.  He has some pop (13 HR's and 34 doubles in 469 AB's), but will need to improve his numbers in 2011 if he is going to retain his prospect status.

Pitchers

Dae-Eun Rhee, SP - coming off Tommy John surgery in 2009, Rhee struggled in 2010, posting a 5.27 ERA and only 70 K's in 114.3 IP.  However, his season was a tale of 2 halves, as he had a respectable first half (4.24 ERA) before falling apart in the second half (6.11 ERA).  This could be due to lack of stamina following surgery.  With 3 quality pitches, Rhee is one to keep an eye on in 2011, especially since it can sometimes take a pitcher 18 monts to 2 years to fully recover from TJ surgery.

Rafael Dolis, SP - ranked as the Cubs 13th best prospect, Dolis is another pitcher to keep an eye on.  Blessed with a mid-90's fastball, Dolis posted a 2.92 ERA at Daytona with an incredible 2.29 GO/AO ratio.  He was good, but not great, upon his promotion to AA Tennessee, with a 4.07 ERA and 1.93 GO/AO ratio.  On the year, he gave up only 6 HR's in 126.1 IP.  He needs to develop his secondary pitches some more, but has the makings of a front-line starter or a late-innings reliever.

Chris Archer, SP - no pitcher in the Cubs system improved their stock more that Archer in 2010.  Ranked as the 15th best Cubs prospect, Archer was outstanding at Daytona (7-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 82 K's in 72.1 IP) before pitching even better at AA (1.80 ERA and 67 K's in 70 IP).  He was named the Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year and will likely start 2011 at AAA Iowa, where he will be just a Carlos Zambrano implosion away from joining the Cubs' rotation.

Brooks Raley, SP - the Cubs 21st ranked prospect and a 6th round pick in 2009, Raley enjoyed a fine season at Daytona, going 8-6 with a 3.50 ERA.  Not blessed with a plus pitch, Raley gave up 151 hits and struck out just 97 in 136.1 IP and will have to rely on command and guile as he moves up the ladder.

Chris Rusin, SP - the Cubs 4th round pick in 2009, Rusin went 4-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 84 K's in 91 IP.  He also fared well in a brief 4 start trial at AA to end the season (1.80 ERA and 15 K's in 19 IP).  Rusin won't hurt himself with walks (just 19 in 110 IP), but won't overpower hitters either, as his fastball normally sits in the high 80's.  However, his fastball has a lot of movement, which helped him record 99 K's overall.  He'll start 2011 at AA Tennessee.

Alberto Cabrera, SP - signed out of the Dominican, Cabrera had a strong showing at Daytona with a 3.28 ERA and 90 K's in 93.1 IP.  He hit a wall after being promoted to AA, with a 6.33 ERA in 42.2 IP and will likely return to Tennessee to start 2011.

Aaron Shafer, RP - a 2nd round pick in 2008, Shafer dominated in his stint at Daytona, with an 0.96 ERA, 47 K's and just 29 hits allowed in 46.2 IP.  He couldn't repeat that success at AA though, with a 5.03 ERA in 34 IP and will have to return to Tennessee to start 2011.

Jeffrey Beliveau, RP - an 18th round selection in 2008, Beliveau dominated in a short stint at Peoria (1.59 ERA and 23 K's in 11.1 IP) before earning a promotion to Daytona.  He continued his strong season at Daytona, with a 2.89 ERA and 74 K's in 53 IP.  He should move up to Tennessee in 2011.

Mike Perconte, RP - a non-drafted free agent from the Chicago area (Naperville), Perconte had a nice season at Daytona with a 3.71 ERA and 97 K's in 87.1 IP.  He also led the team with 7 saves.  Perconte will move up to AA in 2011 where he will continue to try to prove himself worthy of the "prospect" label.

Up next, I will take a look at the Tennessee Smokies.

Managerial Search Update: Some juicy rumors

According to the Cubbies Crib, Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald, reported on his "Hit and Run" show on the Score, that Mike Quade will be the next Cubs manager and that the announcement could come in the next two weeks.  Rozner also had an article in the Herald a couple days earlier basically saying the managerial job is Quade's to lose.

Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago reported a couple days ago that the managerial race is down to 3:  Quade, Sandberg and Eric Wedge.  The plan is to have each of the candidates meet with Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts before Jim Hendry makes his recommendation as to who should be hired.

As for Joe Girardi, Ken Rosenthal in his weekly Full Count Video says that the Cubs would be taking a risk in waiting for Girardi to become available, as there could be as many as 10 managerial spots opening up this offseason and the Cubs top 3 candidates could be snatched up by other teams.

Bruce Levine supports that theory in his report, saying that Quade stock has risen enough that at least one other team has inquired on him, and as I reported in previous articles, other teams have expressed interest in Sandberg.

So, given that the Cubs might have to wait awhile before Girardi becomes available and that its no sure thing he will jump ship, Hendry may just decide to go with what he's got.

Thus, the Rozner report could very well be true and the Cubs will be announcing Mike Quade as their next manager within the next couple weeks.

Let's face it, we've been spoiled.  From 2004-2008, the Cubs have had their best third base production in years, thanks to Aramis Ramirez.  Not since Ron Santo roamed the hot corner have the Cubs had such a consistently productive hitter at third.

From 2004-2008, Ramirez averaged 32 HR's, 105 RBI's and a .302 average.  In his 7 1/2 years with the Cubs, Ramirez has amassed 213 HR's, 713 RBI's and put up a .293/.355/.534 line.  (For the record, in his 14 years with the Cubs, Santo had a .279/.366/.472 line).

In between Santo and Ramirez, the Cubs have employed 20 different starting third basemen in 30 years.  Included in that list are such stalwarts as Lenny Randle, Ken Reitz, Luis Salazar, Gary Scott, Leo Gomez, Kevin Orie, Ron Coomer and Mark Bellhorn.  If none of those names ring a bell for you, you are not alone.

Now, after an injury plagued year in 2009 and a down year in 2010, it appears that Ramirez' days in Chicago are numbered.  He will exercise his player option to return in 2011, but its unlikely the Cubs will pick up his 2012 option.

So, who will replace Aramis when he's gone?  Its long been thought that Josh Vitters is the heir apparent to Ramirez.  However, a down season at AA Tennessee this year (.223/.282/.383) has many people thinking he is the next Gary Scott instead of the next Ron Santo.

That's OK though, Hendry can just open up the checkbook and sign the best free agent third baseman available, right?  Think again.  The list of free agent third basemen heading into the 2012 season is short and uninspiring.  Unless you think the likes of Casey Blake, Mark DeRosa, Greg Dobbs or Edwin Encarnacion are the answer.  (And before you get all excited about a possible return of DeRosa to Chicago, remember that he will be 37 in 2012 and missed all of this year due to wrist surgery).

So, where will the Cubs find their 2012 third baseman?  Perhaps they should look at the current crop of free agent third basemen, in particular, Adrian Beltre.

Beltre is widely regarded as an excellent defensive third baseman, who is an above average hitter for the position.  For his career, Beltre has hit .275/.328/.462, but is capable of much more, as evidenced by his .321/.365/.553 line this year.

Granted, he only seems to put up these exceptional years in his contract years (he hit .334/.388/.629 in his last contract year and hasn't approached those number again until this year).  However, even his "down" years are better than the production the Cubs would get from some of the other options.

The thinking here is that the Cubs would sign Beltre and move Ramirez to first for 2011.  Then, when Ramirez' contract expires after 2011, the Cubs can use the extra cash to go after Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder, who are expected to be free agents at that time, to play first and have their corner infield spots locked down for at least a few years.

Of course, this would involve a lot of forward thinking on Hendry's part, something that certainly isn't his strong suit.  But if the Cubs don't make plans to find a suitable replacement for Ramirez now, they could be in for another long dryspell at the position.

Minor League Review: Peoria Chiefs

With the Cubs season mercifully ended, I will continue my weekly review of each of the Cubs minor league affiliates by reviewing the Peoria Chiefs of the Midwest League.

The Chiefs finished the season with an overall record of 71-66.  They were 38-31 in the first half of the season, good for third in their division, but fell to a 33-35 record in the second half.

Hitting

Peoria featured a couple of the Cubs top hitting prospects as well as several 2009 draft picks who got their first taste of full-season ball.  Here's how they fared.

Hak-Ju Lee, SS - Rated the Cubs 6th best prospect by Baseball America heading into the season, Lee fared well hitting .282/.354/.351, including leading the team with 32 SB's.  He's not going to hit for a lot of power, but he's a good defensive shortstop and fast baserunner.  He will make the step up to high A Daytona in 2011.

Logan Watkins, 2B - Lee's double-play partner ranked 7th on BA's list.  He turned in an average season at Peoria, hitting .261/.351/.339.  This was a big step down for him, after hitting .326 in his first two minor league seasons.  However, he did finish second in SB's with 19.  He should still make the move up to high A along with Lee.

Jae-Hoon Ha, OF - Signed out of Korea in June 2009, Ha was the best hitter on the Peoria squad, leading the team in average (.317) and slugging (.468).  He added 7 HR's and 9 SB's for good measure.  He will also start 2011 at Daytona.

Greg Rohan, OF - a 21st round draft pick in 2009, Rohan was second on the team with a .298 average and 3rd in OBP (.354), before being promoted to Daytona, where he'll likely start the 2011 campaign.

D.J. Fitzgerald, OF - the 22nd round pick in 2009, Fitzgerald also put together a fine season with a .283/.351/.413 line.  He added 6 HR's and 10 SB's.  He'll also start the 2011 season at Daytona.

Nelson Perez, OF - signed out of the Dominican Republic, Perez was second on the team with 11 HR's and finished with a .289/.329/.462 line at Peoria.  He struggled after a promotion to Daytona (.163/.218/.288) and will remain there for the start of the 2011 season.  He will need to cut down on his strikeouts (121 in 385 AB's) to be successful.

Matthew Cerda, 3B - a 4th round pick in 2008, Cerda bounced back from an injury in 2009 to hit .271/.365/.377 at Peoria.  He showed excellent patience, leading the team in walks with 68 in 124 games.  He was also second on the team in OBP.  He should take the next step in 2011.

Charles Thomas, 3B - a 10th round pick in 2009, Thomas followed up a strong 2009 campaign (.306/.354/.431) with a really bad one in 2010 (.176/.235/.277).  He struck out 44 times in 43 games (148 AB's) and will need to return to Peoria for 2011.

Justin Bour, 1B - selected in the 25th round in 2009, Bour impressed with the bat in 2010, hitting .291/.375/.436 on the year.  He led the team in HR's (12), doubles (31), OBP and OPS (.811).  He will certainly move up to Daytona in 2011.

Pitchers

The Chief's pitching featured one fast rising prospect as well as some of the Cubs other top prospects and draft picks.  Here is how they fared:

Trey McNutt, SP - McNutt, the Cubs 16th ranked prospect heading into the season, is sure to be jumping up the prospects charts after his stellar year in 2010.  Trey was dominant in 13 starts with Peoria going 6-0 with a 1.51 ERA and 70 K's in 59.2 IP.  He followed that up with a 4-0 record and 2.63 ERA in 9 starts at Daytona, before he cooled down at AA Tennessee.  He'll head back to Tennessee to start 2011, but could reach the majors in September.

Jeffrey Antigua, SP - Antigua, who ranked 19th on Baseball America's list, had a solid first full year in the minors, posting a 4.16 ERA, 88 K's and just 33 walks in 93 IP.  He will move up to Daytona in 2011.

Nicholas Struck, SP - the Cubs 39th round pick in the 2009 draft, Struck pitched very well at Peoria, going 8-8 with 3.22 ERA and 84 K's in 114.2 IP.  He earned a late-season promotion to Daytona, where he didn't fare as well (5.14 ERA in 14 IP) and will start there in 2011.

Brett Wallach, SP - acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Wallach struggled with Peoria, posting a 5.76 ERA in 29.2 IP.  However, for the year he was much better, with a 4.26 ERA and 116 K's in 114.1 IP.  He should move up the ladder in 2011.

Robert Whitenack, SP - an 8th round pick in the 2009 draft, Whitenack's numbers at Peoria (4.96 ERA and 63 K's in 103.1 IP) were not very impressive.  However he showed enough improvement during the year that he was promoted to Daytona and went 3-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 28 K's in 39.2 IP.  He should start 2011 at Daytona, but could be in AA by mid-season.

Su-Min Jung, SP - signed out of South Korea in 2009, Jung had a fine season at Peoria, with a 7-4 record, 3.94 ERA and 79 K's in 89 IP.  He will head to Daytona to start 2011.

Steven Grife, RP - the Cubs 26th round pick in 2009, Grife had a solid year split between Boise and Peoria, with a 3.88 ERA and 71 K's in 62.2 IP.  Featuring a plus fastball that reaches 94 mph, he needs to develop a quality secondary pitch in order to be successful as he moves up the ladder.

Danny Keefe, RP - a 14th round pick in 2009, Keefe enjoyed success out of the bullpen between Boise and Peoria in 2010.  He posted a 2.35 ERA and 34 K's in 46 IP and should move up to Daytona to start 2011.

Next week I will take a look at the Daytona Cubs of the Florida State League.

Managerial Search update: same old, same old

Another week has gone by and its time to check in on how the managerial search is going.

There has been few new developments in the past week.  John Heyman of SI.com,  wrote a lengthy article basically rehashing what we already know:  Quade has impressed the brass enough to be considered a contender, Ryne Sandberg appears to be the other leader and Joe Girardi is the "wildcard".

Buster Olney tweeted that the Cubs remain intent on making a run at Joe Girardi.

And, just because Cubs fans needed a good laugh after a miserable year, Ozzie Guillen threw his name into the hat.

Sounds like its going to go down like this:  the Cubs will wait until the Yankees are eliminated from the playoffs to see if they can entice Joe Girardi to come here.  If they are unable to, then Hendry will give the job to either Sandberg or Quade.

I will continue to provide updates weekly or when news breaks, however don't expect a decision until late October at the earliest.