With 5 games to go in the 2010 season, the Cubs offense ranks 10th in runs scored with 674 in 157 games (4.3 per game). This is a far cry from the 2008 season when the Cubs were second in the majors in runs scored. So why the big drop off?
Part of the reason can be attributed to the lack of a quality leadoff man. The various Cubs leadoff men have hit a combined .253/.316/.367 on the year. Ryan Theriot was the Cubs top leadoff man in 2010, almost by default, with a .275/.310/.308 line in 56 games atop the Cubs order. However, with Theriot out of the picture for 2010, who will be the leadoff man in 2011?
Let's take a look at the candidates:
Kosuke Fukudome - Fukudome was second to Theriot in games started at leadoff with 46, however, his .197/.314/.303 line forced the Cubs to look at other options. His one redeeming quality is his ability to take a walk. But, with Tyler Colvin starting in right, Fukudome will more likely be relegated to the bench in 2011.
Tyler Colvin - Colvin has started 24 games as the Cubs leadoff hitter, with limited success. His line in the leadoff spot is .250/.310/.538. However, his power is better suited for further down in the lineup. In fact he's had his best success in the 5th or 6th spots.
Blake DeWitt - since joining the Cubs on July 31st, DeWitt has started 12 games as the leadoff hitter with a .216/.250/.392 line. He has spent most of his career (192 out of 226 games) hitting at the bottom of the order in the 6-8 spots. Its unlikely that he'll wind up in the leadoff spot.
Darwin Barney - in his 16 games in the bigs, Barney has started 4 of them leading off. He is just 2 for 15 in the spot, but it appears the Cubs are willing to try him there, if need be.
Alfonso Soriano - Soriano has not started a game in the leadoff spot this year, but is a career .288/.338/.538 hitter in the leadoff spot. With his knee problems, his days of 30-40 SB's are over, but he could be an option for the Cubs. However, I think the Cubs will need him more in the middle of the order next year.
Marlon Byrd - Byrd has been the leadoff hitter for 5 games this season with unrivaled success (.500/.522/.727) albeit in limited at bats. For his career, Byrd is a .289/.352/.418 hitter in the leadoff spot. He is a strong candidate for the leadoff spot.
Starlin Castro - The Cubs hitting leader with a .301 average, Castro has been used only one time in the leadoff spot this year and went 0 for 4. He has spent the majority of his time in the bigs hitting second in the order. Its possible the Cubs have not tried him at leadoff more this year as they did not want to put any more pressure on their rising star. However, with a successful season under his belt, its possible they could give him a shot leading off in 2011.
Prediction
The Cubs don't have the prototypical leadoff hitter on the team and its unlikely they'll go out and acquire one before next season. Thus, based on the choices currently on the roster, I think the Cubs would be best off with either Byrd or Castro leading off. With Byrd's prior experience leading off and Castro appearing comfortable in the second hole, I would hit Byrd first and Castro second, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs make Castro the leadoff man.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Monday, September 27, 2010
Minor League Review: Boise Hawks
The Boise Hawks finished the season with an overall record of 34-42. They were 19-19 in the first half and just missed winning the division by 3 games. In the second half they fell to 15-23 and were 10 games off the pace.
Hitters
Like the AZL Cubs, Boise saw its share of 2010 draft picks, including Ryan Cuneo, who was discussed in the AZL Cubs writeup. Here are some other 2010 draftees who spent time at Boise:
Micah Gibbs (C) - The Cubs 3rd round pick was known as an excellent defensive catcher. However, Gibbs has yet to prove himself as a hitter as he posted a .203/.274/.250 line at Boise. His defense should help him reach the majors, but his hitting will determine if he's a backup or regular.
Matt Szczur (OF) - A two-sport star at Villanova, the Cubs 5th round pick has excellent speed, but didn't show it off at Boise (just 1 SB). However, he did hit .397/.439/.521 in 73 AB's with Boise before being promoted to class A Peoria, where he should begin the 2011 campaign.
Pierre LePage (2B) - The Cubs 13th round pick is an excellent contact hitter (just 26 K's in 254 AB's) and it translated into a .331/.367/.453 line. He doesn't have any other tools that stand out, but did manage to swipe 9 bags and finish second on the team in both runs (39) and rbi's (38). He'll be looking to find his place in the Cubs middle infield pecking order.
Elliot Soto (SS) - A 15th round pick, Soto is known as an excellent defender, however his hitting in the Cape Cod league were Mark Belanger-esque (.194/.268/.218). However, he fared well in his first taste of the minors with a .271/.314/.337 line. He's another player who, if his bat fails him, should still make it to the majors on defense alone.
Jeff Vigurs (C) - Another catcher known more for his defense than his bat, Vigurs showed why with a .165/.235/.233 line. He's likely to repeat next year at Boise until he proves he can hit.
Some other hitters of note:
Alvaro Ramirez (OF) - Signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Yankees in 2006, Ramirez led the team in hitting (.350), runs (40) and SB's (10) before being promoted to Peoria. At age 24, he was old for the Northwest League an will need to move up fast if he is to be considered a prospect.
Richard Jones (1B) - Jones, the Cubs 9th round pick in 2009, led the team in HR's with 5 while hitting .287/.331/.422. He was promoted to Peoria, where he hit just .216/.226/.336 in 134 AB's. A lefthanded hitter with power, his bat is what will carry him to the majors.
Arismendy Alcantara (SS) - Another prospect out of the Dominican, Alcantara showed off his good speed at Boise, with 7 SB's and 6 triples on the year. Although his .283/.315/.402 line is uninspiring, he will still move up to Peoria to start the 2011 season.
Pitching
The pitchers had some fine showings from the 2010 draft class as well.
Cam Greathouse - The Cubs 8th round pick, Greathouse put up some great numbers at Boise with a 2.75 ERA and 44 K's in 39.1 IP. A lefthander, Greathouse has a plus curveball and an average fastball that sits in the upper 80's.
Aaron Kurcz - A 10th round pick, Kurcz had an outstanding debut with Bosie with a 2.05 ERA, 9 saves and 46 K's in 26.1 IP. His fastball sits in the 92-94 mph range and he has the makings of a good curveball and could have a future at the back end of the Cubs bullpen.
Eric Jokisch - Jokisch, the Cubs 11th round pick, struggled at Boise with a 7.08 ERA and 23 walks in 34.1 IP. A lefthander out of Northwestern University, he features a changeup that could develop into a plus pitch, along with a high 80's fastball. He will need to get better control of his stuff if he is going to be successful.
Dustin Fitzgerald - The Cubs 19th round pick, Fitzgerald put up mediocre numbers with a 5.22 ERA and a 22/14 K/BB ratio in 39.2 IP. His fastball tops out around 92 mph and he has a good slider and average changeup, but will probably need another stint at Boise before he can move up.
Matt Loosen - A 23rd round pick, Loose had an excellent 32/8 K/BB ratio, but just a 4.54 ERA to show for it in his 37.2 IP. Working with only an average fastball, Loosen will need to find a way to miss more bats (39 hits and 4 HR's given up) to be successful.
Eric Rice - Rice, the 25th round pick, struck out 17 in his 13.1 IP at Boise. His 4.05 ERA was somewhat pedestrian, but he should still make the step up to Peoria for 2011.
Brent Ebinger - Ebinger had the best debut of the starting pitchers the Cubs drafted in 2010, posting a 3.60 ERA and 48/5 K/BB ratio in 45 IP. He also posted a 2.23 GO/AO ratio. He will start 2011 at Peoria.
One more pitcher of note:
Austin Kirk - a 3rd round pick in 2009, Kirk had a 3.31 ERA and 48 K's in 51.2 IP. He followed that up with a 3.55 ERA and 17 K's in 12.2 IP after being promoted to Peoria, which is where he'll likely begin the 2011 season.
Next week I'll take a look at the Peoria Chiefs.
Hitters
Like the AZL Cubs, Boise saw its share of 2010 draft picks, including Ryan Cuneo, who was discussed in the AZL Cubs writeup. Here are some other 2010 draftees who spent time at Boise:
Micah Gibbs (C) - The Cubs 3rd round pick was known as an excellent defensive catcher. However, Gibbs has yet to prove himself as a hitter as he posted a .203/.274/.250 line at Boise. His defense should help him reach the majors, but his hitting will determine if he's a backup or regular.
Matt Szczur (OF) - A two-sport star at Villanova, the Cubs 5th round pick has excellent speed, but didn't show it off at Boise (just 1 SB). However, he did hit .397/.439/.521 in 73 AB's with Boise before being promoted to class A Peoria, where he should begin the 2011 campaign.
Pierre LePage (2B) - The Cubs 13th round pick is an excellent contact hitter (just 26 K's in 254 AB's) and it translated into a .331/.367/.453 line. He doesn't have any other tools that stand out, but did manage to swipe 9 bags and finish second on the team in both runs (39) and rbi's (38). He'll be looking to find his place in the Cubs middle infield pecking order.
Elliot Soto (SS) - A 15th round pick, Soto is known as an excellent defender, however his hitting in the Cape Cod league were Mark Belanger-esque (.194/.268/.218). However, he fared well in his first taste of the minors with a .271/.314/.337 line. He's another player who, if his bat fails him, should still make it to the majors on defense alone.
Jeff Vigurs (C) - Another catcher known more for his defense than his bat, Vigurs showed why with a .165/.235/.233 line. He's likely to repeat next year at Boise until he proves he can hit.
Some other hitters of note:
Alvaro Ramirez (OF) - Signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Yankees in 2006, Ramirez led the team in hitting (.350), runs (40) and SB's (10) before being promoted to Peoria. At age 24, he was old for the Northwest League an will need to move up fast if he is to be considered a prospect.
Richard Jones (1B) - Jones, the Cubs 9th round pick in 2009, led the team in HR's with 5 while hitting .287/.331/.422. He was promoted to Peoria, where he hit just .216/.226/.336 in 134 AB's. A lefthanded hitter with power, his bat is what will carry him to the majors.
Arismendy Alcantara (SS) - Another prospect out of the Dominican, Alcantara showed off his good speed at Boise, with 7 SB's and 6 triples on the year. Although his .283/.315/.402 line is uninspiring, he will still move up to Peoria to start the 2011 season.
Pitching
The pitchers had some fine showings from the 2010 draft class as well.
Cam Greathouse - The Cubs 8th round pick, Greathouse put up some great numbers at Boise with a 2.75 ERA and 44 K's in 39.1 IP. A lefthander, Greathouse has a plus curveball and an average fastball that sits in the upper 80's.
Aaron Kurcz - A 10th round pick, Kurcz had an outstanding debut with Bosie with a 2.05 ERA, 9 saves and 46 K's in 26.1 IP. His fastball sits in the 92-94 mph range and he has the makings of a good curveball and could have a future at the back end of the Cubs bullpen.
Eric Jokisch - Jokisch, the Cubs 11th round pick, struggled at Boise with a 7.08 ERA and 23 walks in 34.1 IP. A lefthander out of Northwestern University, he features a changeup that could develop into a plus pitch, along with a high 80's fastball. He will need to get better control of his stuff if he is going to be successful.
Dustin Fitzgerald - The Cubs 19th round pick, Fitzgerald put up mediocre numbers with a 5.22 ERA and a 22/14 K/BB ratio in 39.2 IP. His fastball tops out around 92 mph and he has a good slider and average changeup, but will probably need another stint at Boise before he can move up.
Matt Loosen - A 23rd round pick, Loose had an excellent 32/8 K/BB ratio, but just a 4.54 ERA to show for it in his 37.2 IP. Working with only an average fastball, Loosen will need to find a way to miss more bats (39 hits and 4 HR's given up) to be successful.
Eric Rice - Rice, the 25th round pick, struck out 17 in his 13.1 IP at Boise. His 4.05 ERA was somewhat pedestrian, but he should still make the step up to Peoria for 2011.
Brent Ebinger - Ebinger had the best debut of the starting pitchers the Cubs drafted in 2010, posting a 3.60 ERA and 48/5 K/BB ratio in 45 IP. He also posted a 2.23 GO/AO ratio. He will start 2011 at Peoria.
One more pitcher of note:
Austin Kirk - a 3rd round pick in 2009, Kirk had a 3.31 ERA and 48 K's in 51.2 IP. He followed that up with a 3.55 ERA and 17 K's in 12.2 IP after being promoted to Peoria, which is where he'll likely begin the 2011 season.
Next week I'll take a look at the Peoria Chiefs.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Bob Brenly withdraws from managerial race
In a surprising move, Bob Brenly withdrew his name from consideration for the Cubs managerial position citing "personal and professional" reasons. He went on to say that "I just think this is not the right time for me."
Many of us will speculate as to the true reasons for his withdrawal. He was under consideration for the managerial job back when Lou Piniella was hired and may have felt that Jim Hendry favors others within the organization above him, such as Mike Quade and Ryne Sandberg, so why bother.
However, with many managerial jobs open or soon to be open, he'll likely get his chance to interview for some other positions. But, if it doesn't work out, he has said he would be perfectly happy remaining in the Cubs broadcast booth.
Brenly was another one of the fans favorites and with him out of the picture, its looking like more of a three horse race, with Ryne Sandberg and Mike Quade neck-and-neck, and Joe Girardi as the longshot.
Sure, Hendry will interview Eric Wedge, Don Wakamatsu and others. But, after Tom Ricketts said that the Cubs need someone who understands what this team is all about, I just don't see Hendry hiring anyone other than Sandberg, Quade or Girardi.
Many of us will speculate as to the true reasons for his withdrawal. He was under consideration for the managerial job back when Lou Piniella was hired and may have felt that Jim Hendry favors others within the organization above him, such as Mike Quade and Ryne Sandberg, so why bother.
However, with many managerial jobs open or soon to be open, he'll likely get his chance to interview for some other positions. But, if it doesn't work out, he has said he would be perfectly happy remaining in the Cubs broadcast booth.
Brenly was another one of the fans favorites and with him out of the picture, its looking like more of a three horse race, with Ryne Sandberg and Mike Quade neck-and-neck, and Joe Girardi as the longshot.
Sure, Hendry will interview Eric Wedge, Don Wakamatsu and others. But, after Tom Ricketts said that the Cubs need someone who understands what this team is all about, I just don't see Hendry hiring anyone other than Sandberg, Quade or Girardi.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Managerial Search Update: Brenly will get interview
After wondering why Bob Brenly's name was not being mentioned in the Cubs managerial search last week, Gordon Wittenmyer reports that Jim Hendry will interview Brenly towards the end of the season.
Brenly is just one of several managerial candidates who fits Tom Ricketts' qualifications for the job, in that he is "a manager who really understands ... the scrutiny you get and (must) be able to handle those periods in June when you lose three games in a row and people start talking about Year 103 of the curse. We have to someone who understands what they're getting into." Of course, Mike Quade, Ryne Sandberg and Joe Girardi also meet that criteria.
As for Sandberg, he officially interviewed with Hendry yesterday In Arizona and likely spoke with him some more today. If Sandberg doesn't get the Cubs job, there are other teams interested in him, as he is apparently a candidate for the Blue Jays job and the Mariners quietly have interest.
Finally, you can add another name to the growing list of managerial candidates, as former Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu is on the Cubs list, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.
Sounds like Hendry keeps expanding his list instead of narrowing it down. At this rate, he won't make a decision until 2012. Of course, if the Yankees are knocked out of the playoffs in the first round, and Joe Girardi makes himself available, we could have a new manager by mid-October.
Brenly is just one of several managerial candidates who fits Tom Ricketts' qualifications for the job, in that he is "a manager who really understands ... the scrutiny you get and (must) be able to handle those periods in June when you lose three games in a row and people start talking about Year 103 of the curse. We have to someone who understands what they're getting into." Of course, Mike Quade, Ryne Sandberg and Joe Girardi also meet that criteria.
As for Sandberg, he officially interviewed with Hendry yesterday In Arizona and likely spoke with him some more today. If Sandberg doesn't get the Cubs job, there are other teams interested in him, as he is apparently a candidate for the Blue Jays job and the Mariners quietly have interest.
Finally, you can add another name to the growing list of managerial candidates, as former Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu is on the Cubs list, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.
Sounds like Hendry keeps expanding his list instead of narrowing it down. At this rate, he won't make a decision until 2012. Of course, if the Yankees are knocked out of the playoffs in the first round, and Joe Girardi makes himself available, we could have a new manager by mid-October.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
What's on second (i.e. is Blake DeWitt the answer)?
Ever since Jim Hendry's ill-fated trade of Mark DeRosa after the 2008 season, the Cubs have been scrounging around and searching for an adequate replacement for him at second.
Mike Fontenot was thought to be the answer. He hit well when Aramis Ramirez was injured in 2008, but failed to hit when given the full-time opportunity in 2009 and has since been sent packing.
Ryan Theriot was moved to second this year, when Starlin Castro was called up, but he too has since been traded.
So, what are we left with? Below is a detailed look at the Cubs options for second for the 2011 season:
Internal Options
Blake DeWitt - DeWitt looked good while hitting .280/.333/.409 in August after being acquired from the Dodgers. However, he has hit just .154/.250/.250 in September and is losing playing time to Darwin Barney. DeWitt can also play third and short (in small doses) and if he loses the second base job he could be a useful utility player.
Darwin Barney - Barney has hit fairly well since his callup (.267/.313/.317 in 60 AB's), however his minor league numbers (.288/.334/.374) don't inspire me. He is a good defensive player who can also play short and third and may be best suited for a utility role.
Jeff Baker - After competing against Fontenot for the starting job this spring, Baker has become the forgotten man in Chicago, being used mostly as a pinch-hitter and spot starter against lefties. In fact, Baker's ability to hit lefties (.296/.347/.511 for his career) is probably his biggest asset to the team. He could end up platooning with DeWitt or Barney in 2011.
Ryan Flaherty - One of the Cubs top prospects, Flaherty hit well at high A Daytona (.286/.348/.445), but struggled after being promoted to AA Tennessee (.183/.286/.254 in 23 games). He has shown some pop with the bat (20 HR's in 2009, 10 in 2010) and can play second, third and even some short. He's slated to play in the Arizona Fall League and with a strong showing there, he could be a factor in the second base battle next spring.
D.J. LeMahieu - The darkhorse amongst the internal candidates, LeMahieu has done nothing but hit since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft. He hit .323/.376/.384 in 164 AB's in 2009 and followed that up with a .314/.346/.386 line at Daytona this year. He doesn't have much power or speed, but can spray line drives all over the field and could force his way into the Cubs lineup as early as mid-2011.
External Options
Brian Roberts, Orioles - The Cubs nearly completed a trade with the Orioles to acquire Roberts back in February 2008, however that obviously fell through. Roberts signed a 4 year extension with Baltimore in February 2009, however, the contract contains limited no-trade protection. So, despite assurances from the Orioles that they do not intend to trade him, Roberts could be had for the right price (most likely young pitching). The problem with Roberts though is he's on the wrong side of 30 and has back issues. The Cubs would be better off looking elsewhere.
Orlando Hudson, Twins - The Cubs were interested in signing Hudson when he was a free agent prior to the 2009 season. A free agent again this offseason, he could come relatively cheap, as his last two deals were one year deals worth $3.4 million plus incentives (for 2009) and $5 million (for 2010). He might make sense for the Cubs as a one year stop-gap until some of their infield prospects are ready.
Dan Uggla, Marlins - Uggla will be entering into his final year of arbitration and the cost conscious Marlins have been moving real slow in negotiating an extension making Uggla unsure about what is going to happen. Uggla has been the subject of trade rumors ever since he entered arbitration and this offseason should be no different.
Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks - Johnson has been the subject of many trade rumors this year. He is in the same situation as Uggla, entering his final year of arbitration and with a cost conscious team. However, ESPN's Buster Olney (via mlbtraderumors.com) reports that the Diamondbacks fully intend to bring Johnson back next year.
Brandon Phillips, Reds - Phillips was one of the Reds players rumored to be on the block last offseason, as the Reds looked to cut payroll. However, with the success the Reds have had this season, its unlikely that Phillips will be traded.
Chone Figgins, Mariners - Figgins was the subject of numerous trade rumors this summer, mostly involving the Atlanta Braves. He signed a 4-year, $36 million deal with the Mariners last offseason and, after hitting poorly this year, the Cubs could probably get him for cheap. Maybe the Cubs could get him for Carlos Zambrano (don't laugh, it worked with Milton Bradley).
Prediction
With more pressing needs to fill this offseason (such as first base and the bullpen), I don't see Hendry going out and trading for a big name second baseman. If the Cubs don't use their extra cash to sign the Big Donkey this offseason (and I'm hoping they don't), then it might make sense to sign Orlando Hudson to a one year deal. Otherwise, DeWitt and Barney will compete for the job during spring training, with the loser likely filling the utility role. If both of them fail to perform, the Cubs have other options (Flaherty and LeMahieu) waiting in the wings.
Mike Fontenot was thought to be the answer. He hit well when Aramis Ramirez was injured in 2008, but failed to hit when given the full-time opportunity in 2009 and has since been sent packing.
Ryan Theriot was moved to second this year, when Starlin Castro was called up, but he too has since been traded.
So, what are we left with? Below is a detailed look at the Cubs options for second for the 2011 season:
Internal Options
Blake DeWitt - DeWitt looked good while hitting .280/.333/.409 in August after being acquired from the Dodgers. However, he has hit just .154/.250/.250 in September and is losing playing time to Darwin Barney. DeWitt can also play third and short (in small doses) and if he loses the second base job he could be a useful utility player.
Darwin Barney - Barney has hit fairly well since his callup (.267/.313/.317 in 60 AB's), however his minor league numbers (.288/.334/.374) don't inspire me. He is a good defensive player who can also play short and third and may be best suited for a utility role.
Jeff Baker - After competing against Fontenot for the starting job this spring, Baker has become the forgotten man in Chicago, being used mostly as a pinch-hitter and spot starter against lefties. In fact, Baker's ability to hit lefties (.296/.347/.511 for his career) is probably his biggest asset to the team. He could end up platooning with DeWitt or Barney in 2011.
Ryan Flaherty - One of the Cubs top prospects, Flaherty hit well at high A Daytona (.286/.348/.445), but struggled after being promoted to AA Tennessee (.183/.286/.254 in 23 games). He has shown some pop with the bat (20 HR's in 2009, 10 in 2010) and can play second, third and even some short. He's slated to play in the Arizona Fall League and with a strong showing there, he could be a factor in the second base battle next spring.
D.J. LeMahieu - The darkhorse amongst the internal candidates, LeMahieu has done nothing but hit since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft. He hit .323/.376/.384 in 164 AB's in 2009 and followed that up with a .314/.346/.386 line at Daytona this year. He doesn't have much power or speed, but can spray line drives all over the field and could force his way into the Cubs lineup as early as mid-2011.
External Options
Brian Roberts, Orioles - The Cubs nearly completed a trade with the Orioles to acquire Roberts back in February 2008, however that obviously fell through. Roberts signed a 4 year extension with Baltimore in February 2009, however, the contract contains limited no-trade protection. So, despite assurances from the Orioles that they do not intend to trade him, Roberts could be had for the right price (most likely young pitching). The problem with Roberts though is he's on the wrong side of 30 and has back issues. The Cubs would be better off looking elsewhere.
Orlando Hudson, Twins - The Cubs were interested in signing Hudson when he was a free agent prior to the 2009 season. A free agent again this offseason, he could come relatively cheap, as his last two deals were one year deals worth $3.4 million plus incentives (for 2009) and $5 million (for 2010). He might make sense for the Cubs as a one year stop-gap until some of their infield prospects are ready.
Dan Uggla, Marlins - Uggla will be entering into his final year of arbitration and the cost conscious Marlins have been moving real slow in negotiating an extension making Uggla unsure about what is going to happen. Uggla has been the subject of trade rumors ever since he entered arbitration and this offseason should be no different.
Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks - Johnson has been the subject of many trade rumors this year. He is in the same situation as Uggla, entering his final year of arbitration and with a cost conscious team. However, ESPN's Buster Olney (via mlbtraderumors.com) reports that the Diamondbacks fully intend to bring Johnson back next year.
Brandon Phillips, Reds - Phillips was one of the Reds players rumored to be on the block last offseason, as the Reds looked to cut payroll. However, with the success the Reds have had this season, its unlikely that Phillips will be traded.
Chone Figgins, Mariners - Figgins was the subject of numerous trade rumors this summer, mostly involving the Atlanta Braves. He signed a 4-year, $36 million deal with the Mariners last offseason and, after hitting poorly this year, the Cubs could probably get him for cheap. Maybe the Cubs could get him for Carlos Zambrano (don't laugh, it worked with Milton Bradley).
Prediction
With more pressing needs to fill this offseason (such as first base and the bullpen), I don't see Hendry going out and trading for a big name second baseman. If the Cubs don't use their extra cash to sign the Big Donkey this offseason (and I'm hoping they don't), then it might make sense to sign Orlando Hudson to a one year deal. Otherwise, DeWitt and Barney will compete for the job during spring training, with the loser likely filling the utility role. If both of them fail to perform, the Cubs have other options (Flaherty and LeMahieu) waiting in the wings.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Minor League Review: Arizona League Cubs
Tonight I'm starting a series which will review each of the Cubs minor league teams. Starting with the Arizona League (Rookie) Cubs and working my way up to the Iowa Cubs. I will post a review each Monday night, as follows:
Arizona League Cubs
The AZL Cubs finished with a record of 26-29, 3rd in the AZL East division (out of 4 teams).
Hitters
Several of the 2010 draft picks made their debut with the AZL Cubs, including Reggie Golden (2nd round), Micah Gibbs (3rd round), Matt Szczur (5th), Pierre LePage (13th) and Elliot Soto (15th). However, none of these players stayed long in the AZL, either due to promotion or late signing.
There were 4 players from the 2010 draft who stuck around for a while. Ryan Cuneo, Dustin Geiger, Dustin Harrington and Chad Noble.
Ryan Cuneo (1B) - selected in the 20th round, Cuneo had an impressive debut in the AZL, hitting .358/.415/.550 in 109 AB's. After 28 games in the AZL, he was promoted to Boise, where he hit only .200/.282/.386 in 70 AB's. He should start the 2011 season at Boise.
Dustin Geiger (OF) - a 24th round pick out of Merritt Island (Fla) HS, Geiger didn't fare well in his debut, hitting only .244/.312/.358. He is only 18, so time is on his side.
Dustin Harrington (3B) - Harrington had a tumultuous final season at East Carolina college, getting kicked off the team for academic reasons. He was selected in the 34th round of the draft and may have been showing some rust with his .245/.257/.367 debut.
Chad Noble (C) - Noble had the worst showing of the 2010 draft picks with a .206/.287/.304 line. He was selected in the 37th round out of Northwestern University.
Outside of the 2010 draft picks, there were some other players with strong showings for the AZL Cubs:
Anthony Giansanti (OF) - a non-draft free agent, Giansanti hit .337/.383/.475 for the AZL Cubs before moving up to Peoria. He then proceeded to hit .296/.377/.398 for Peoria, for an overall line of .317/.380/.437 on the year.
Wes Darvill (2B) - a 5th round pick in 2009, Darvill struggled last year (.223/.295/.231), before having a strong repeat year with the AZL Cubs (.301/.387/.330). He struggled again when promoted to Boise and will likely start there again in 2011.
Bieneme Vismeldy (OF) - a product of the Cubs Dominican League teams, Vismeldy hit .282/.361/.344 with the AZL Cubs. He showed good speed in the DSL, averaging 39 SB's over two years, and he showed off some of the speed in the AZL with 17 SB's in 2010.
Cody Shields (OF) - a 15th round pick in 2009 who signed late, Shields made his debut with the AZL Cubs in 2010 and hit .280/.326/.343. He led the team with 20 SB's and was only caught 5 times. He received a late-season promotion to Boise and hit .296 in 7 games.
Pitchers
Like the hitters, there were many 2010 draft picks who debuted with the AZL Cubs, but didn't stay around long (less than 15 IP), including 8th round pick Cameron Greathouse, Aaron Kurcz (10th round), Erick Jokisch (11th), Dustin Fitzgerald (19th), Matt Loosen (23rd), Eric Rice (25th) and Brent Ebinger (32nd).
There were 5 pitchers from the 2010 draft who pitched more than 15 IP with the AZL Cubs:
Hunter Ackerman - a 4th round pick in 2010, Ackerman was plagued by wildness (12 walks in 15.1 IP), which led to an 8.22 ERA on the year. He struck out 16, but gave up 19 hits.
Austin Reed - a 12th round pick out of Rancho Cucamonga HS in California, Reed had and impressive showing, with a 2.94 ERA and 34 K's in 33.2 IP. He also led the team in wins with 3.
Colin Richardson - a 14th round pick out of Winter Haven HS in Florida, Richardson had a 4.35 ERA in 20.2 IP. Although he gave up his fair share of hits (26), he was able to keep the walks down (just 2).
Ryan Hartman - a 16th round pick out of Mt Zion (IL) High School, Hartman had a 3.77 ERA in 14.1 IP with 15 K's. Hartman was one of 7 Illinoisians who was draft in 2010.
Joseph Zellar - a 28th round pick, Zellar struglled with a 7.04 ERA in 30.2 IP. He did manage to put up 28 K's and keep the walks down with just 7 on the year.
Dallas Beeler - selected in the 41st round this year, Beeler performed well in his debut, with a 3.31 ERA in 16.1 IP. He struck out 16, but also gave up 20 hits.
From those pitchers who were not drafted in 2010, here are the pitchers who performed well for the AZL Cubs in 2011:
Luis Liria - Another Dominican Summer League prospect, Liria was one of the best pitchers on the team, with a 2.40 ERA and 46 K's in 45 IP. He was promoted to Peoria late in the year and had a 10.29 ERA in 3 games.
Eduardo Figueroa - Posted a 2.25 ERA in 16 IP, including 19 K's. He was promoted mid-season to Boise, where he posted a 4.17 ERA in 41 IP.
Marcos Perez - posted a 1.45 ERA in 18.2 IP. He tied for the league lead in wins with 3 and added 19 K's.
That is a look at some of the top players for the AZL Cubs in 2010. Next week I'll take a look at the Boise Hawks.
- September 20 - AZL Cubs (Rookie)
- September 27 - Boise Hawks (Rookie)
- October 4 - Peoria Chiefs (Low A)
- October 11 - Daytona Cubs (High A)
- October 18 - Tennessee Smokies (AA)
- October 25 - Iowa Cubs (AAA)
Arizona League Cubs
The AZL Cubs finished with a record of 26-29, 3rd in the AZL East division (out of 4 teams).
Hitters
Several of the 2010 draft picks made their debut with the AZL Cubs, including Reggie Golden (2nd round), Micah Gibbs (3rd round), Matt Szczur (5th), Pierre LePage (13th) and Elliot Soto (15th). However, none of these players stayed long in the AZL, either due to promotion or late signing.
There were 4 players from the 2010 draft who stuck around for a while. Ryan Cuneo, Dustin Geiger, Dustin Harrington and Chad Noble.
Ryan Cuneo (1B) - selected in the 20th round, Cuneo had an impressive debut in the AZL, hitting .358/.415/.550 in 109 AB's. After 28 games in the AZL, he was promoted to Boise, where he hit only .200/.282/.386 in 70 AB's. He should start the 2011 season at Boise.
Dustin Geiger (OF) - a 24th round pick out of Merritt Island (Fla) HS, Geiger didn't fare well in his debut, hitting only .244/.312/.358. He is only 18, so time is on his side.
Dustin Harrington (3B) - Harrington had a tumultuous final season at East Carolina college, getting kicked off the team for academic reasons. He was selected in the 34th round of the draft and may have been showing some rust with his .245/.257/.367 debut.
Chad Noble (C) - Noble had the worst showing of the 2010 draft picks with a .206/.287/.304 line. He was selected in the 37th round out of Northwestern University.
Outside of the 2010 draft picks, there were some other players with strong showings for the AZL Cubs:
Anthony Giansanti (OF) - a non-draft free agent, Giansanti hit .337/.383/.475 for the AZL Cubs before moving up to Peoria. He then proceeded to hit .296/.377/.398 for Peoria, for an overall line of .317/.380/.437 on the year.
Wes Darvill (2B) - a 5th round pick in 2009, Darvill struggled last year (.223/.295/.231), before having a strong repeat year with the AZL Cubs (.301/.387/.330). He struggled again when promoted to Boise and will likely start there again in 2011.
Bieneme Vismeldy (OF) - a product of the Cubs Dominican League teams, Vismeldy hit .282/.361/.344 with the AZL Cubs. He showed good speed in the DSL, averaging 39 SB's over two years, and he showed off some of the speed in the AZL with 17 SB's in 2010.
Cody Shields (OF) - a 15th round pick in 2009 who signed late, Shields made his debut with the AZL Cubs in 2010 and hit .280/.326/.343. He led the team with 20 SB's and was only caught 5 times. He received a late-season promotion to Boise and hit .296 in 7 games.
Pitchers
Like the hitters, there were many 2010 draft picks who debuted with the AZL Cubs, but didn't stay around long (less than 15 IP), including 8th round pick Cameron Greathouse, Aaron Kurcz (10th round), Erick Jokisch (11th), Dustin Fitzgerald (19th), Matt Loosen (23rd), Eric Rice (25th) and Brent Ebinger (32nd).
There were 5 pitchers from the 2010 draft who pitched more than 15 IP with the AZL Cubs:
Hunter Ackerman - a 4th round pick in 2010, Ackerman was plagued by wildness (12 walks in 15.1 IP), which led to an 8.22 ERA on the year. He struck out 16, but gave up 19 hits.
Austin Reed - a 12th round pick out of Rancho Cucamonga HS in California, Reed had and impressive showing, with a 2.94 ERA and 34 K's in 33.2 IP. He also led the team in wins with 3.
Colin Richardson - a 14th round pick out of Winter Haven HS in Florida, Richardson had a 4.35 ERA in 20.2 IP. Although he gave up his fair share of hits (26), he was able to keep the walks down (just 2).
Ryan Hartman - a 16th round pick out of Mt Zion (IL) High School, Hartman had a 3.77 ERA in 14.1 IP with 15 K's. Hartman was one of 7 Illinoisians who was draft in 2010.
Joseph Zellar - a 28th round pick, Zellar struglled with a 7.04 ERA in 30.2 IP. He did manage to put up 28 K's and keep the walks down with just 7 on the year.
Dallas Beeler - selected in the 41st round this year, Beeler performed well in his debut, with a 3.31 ERA in 16.1 IP. He struck out 16, but also gave up 20 hits.
From those pitchers who were not drafted in 2010, here are the pitchers who performed well for the AZL Cubs in 2011:
Luis Liria - Another Dominican Summer League prospect, Liria was one of the best pitchers on the team, with a 2.40 ERA and 46 K's in 45 IP. He was promoted to Peoria late in the year and had a 10.29 ERA in 3 games.
Eduardo Figueroa - Posted a 2.25 ERA in 16 IP, including 19 K's. He was promoted mid-season to Boise, where he posted a 4.17 ERA in 41 IP.
Marcos Perez - posted a 1.45 ERA in 18.2 IP. He tied for the league lead in wins with 3 and added 19 K's.
That is a look at some of the top players for the AZL Cubs in 2010. Next week I'll take a look at the Boise Hawks.
Adam Dunn expects to stay in Washington
In what could turn out to be good news for the Cubs, Adam Dunn now expects to stay in Washington.
Asked whether he thinks he will be a National next year, Dunn stated "I do. More than I did a month ago. Talks have picked back up. We'll see what happens. We're obviously talking. We're going to work something out, I think."
So, it appears that the Nats and Dunn may just save Jim Hendry from himself and allow the Cubs to spend their money on someone a little more worthwhile this offseason.
Asked whether he thinks he will be a National next year, Dunn stated "I do. More than I did a month ago. Talks have picked back up. We'll see what happens. We're obviously talking. We're going to work something out, I think."
So, it appears that the Nats and Dunn may just save Jim Hendry from himself and allow the Cubs to spend their money on someone a little more worthwhile this offseason.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Review of Cubs Top 10 Prospects for 2010
Yesterday, I reviewed Baseball America's Top 10 prospects and how they fared this season.
Today I will look at my list of the Cubs Top 10 Prospects for 2010--players I thought could have an impact on the big club (and your fantasy team) in 2010:
So, out of my ten picks to make an impact in 2010, only 2 of the 10 made a significant impact (Castro and Colvin). Cashner had a long look with the Cubs, but his impact was low. The others had minimal or no impact.
However, it should be noted that I qualified my list by saying that I thought only the first 4 prospects (Castro, Cashner, Jackson and Colvin) would have a significant impact on the Cubs (and your fantasy team). The others would be mostly roster filler for the Cubs (and your fantasy team).
Today I will look at my list of the Cubs Top 10 Prospects for 2010--players I thought could have an impact on the big club (and your fantasy team) in 2010:
- Starlin Castro - Not surprisingly, Baseball America's Top Cubs prospect was also my favorite for having the biggest impact this season. He didn't disappoint. He was called up earlier than I expected and has put himself in the running for ROY. IMPACT=HIGH
- Andrew Cashner - I predicted that he might break camp as one of the starters, filling in for the injured Ted Lilly. That didn't happen, but he did get a mid-season call-up and pitched out of the bullpen. IMPACT=LOW
- Jay Jackson - I thought that Jackson might get the call to replace injured or ineffective starters. That didn't happen as Jackson was passed over for Thomas Diamond and Casey Coleman. IMPACT=NONE
- Tyler Colvin - I expected Colvin to get a chance if the Cubs were unable to find a right fielder via free agency. Although Colvin started out the season on the bench, he hit his way into more playing time and ended up as a starter by mid-season. IMPACT=HIGH
- Esmailin Caridad - After a strong major league debut in 2009, Caridad was slated to be the Cubs setup man in 2010. However, he made only 8 (poor) appearances before being sidelined with elbow problems. IMPACT=NONE
- John Gaub - I thought the hard-throwing lefty could make an impact in the bullpen, however, wildness hurt his chances of being called up and personal issues caused him to miss the last third of the season. IMPACT=NONE
- Steve Clevenger - I thought Clevenger could get the call if Geovany Soto struggled or Koyie Hill was injured. Clevenger hit well (.317) while splitting the catching duties with Robinson Chirinos at AA Tennessee, but never got the call. IMPACT=NONE
- Jeff Stevens - The Cubs were short on experienced relievers at the big league level, so I figured Stevens would get the call at some point, when the others struggled. He did get the call in June and struggled himself (6.11 ERA in 17.2 IP). IMPACT=MINIMAL
- Blake Parker - Like Stevens, Parker was expected to be called upon to help out in the bullpen. However, Parker struggled at AAA Iowa and was demoted to AA Tennessee mid-season. He never made it to the Cubs. IMPACT=NONE
- Chris Robinson - Robinson split the catching duties with Wellington Castillo at AAA Iowa this season and it was Castillo who got the call when the Cubs needed a catcher. IMPACT=NONE
So, out of my ten picks to make an impact in 2010, only 2 of the 10 made a significant impact (Castro and Colvin). Cashner had a long look with the Cubs, but his impact was low. The others had minimal or no impact.
However, it should be noted that I qualified my list by saying that I thought only the first 4 prospects (Castro, Cashner, Jackson and Colvin) would have a significant impact on the Cubs (and your fantasy team). The others would be mostly roster filler for the Cubs (and your fantasy team).
Manager Search update: Gonzalez declines interview
AOL Fanhouse is reporting that former Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez has declined an interview with Cubs GM Jim Hendry for the manager position. Gonzalez is believed to be the frontrunner to replace Bobby Cox in Atlanta. Gonzalez was reportedly Hendry's top choice for the job, with the possible exception of Joe Girardi.
Speaking of Girardi, According to ESPN Chicago, the Cubs will not make a decision on their next manager as long as Girardi is perceived to be available. In other words, Girardi appears to be Jim Hendry's first choice, especially now with Gonzalez out of the picture.
As for the other candidates, Mike Quade continues to make his case for the job. With the recent 3 game sweep of the Cardinals, Quade now has a 14-7 record since replacing Lou Piniella and, most importantly, has impressed Hendry.
According to Paul Sullivan, others who will receive interviews include Washington coach Pat Listach and former Arizona manager Bob Melvin. Former Indians manager Eric Wedge has already interviewed and fan favorite Ryne Sandberg is also expected to be interviewed.
Somewhat of a surprise is that Cubs broadcaster Bob Brenly has not been listed as a candidate. Brenly expressed his interest in the job way back in July, however his name has been noticably absent from the managerial discussions.
Finally, not that any true Cubs fan would have wanted him, but you can take Tony LaRusa's name off the list, as yesterday, LaRusa declined interest in the Cubs job.
Speaking of Girardi, According to ESPN Chicago, the Cubs will not make a decision on their next manager as long as Girardi is perceived to be available. In other words, Girardi appears to be Jim Hendry's first choice, especially now with Gonzalez out of the picture.
As for the other candidates, Mike Quade continues to make his case for the job. With the recent 3 game sweep of the Cardinals, Quade now has a 14-7 record since replacing Lou Piniella and, most importantly, has impressed Hendry.
According to Paul Sullivan, others who will receive interviews include Washington coach Pat Listach and former Arizona manager Bob Melvin. Former Indians manager Eric Wedge has already interviewed and fan favorite Ryne Sandberg is also expected to be interviewed.
Somewhat of a surprise is that Cubs broadcaster Bob Brenly has not been listed as a candidate. Brenly expressed his interest in the job way back in July, however his name has been noticably absent from the managerial discussions.
Finally, not that any true Cubs fan would have wanted him, but you can take Tony LaRusa's name off the list, as yesterday, LaRusa declined interest in the Cubs job.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Reviewing the Cubs Top 10 Prospects
Back in November Baseball America released its list of Top 10 Cubs Prospects. With the minor league season concluded, here is how those prospects fared this year and their outlook for 2011 (and beyond):
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- Starlin Castro, SS - After hitting .376/.421/.569 in 26 games with Tennessee to start the 2010 season, the Cubs quickly called Castro up to the majors to try to spark their offense. After some early struggles (.227 average in June), Castro has been red hot after the All-Star Break, hitting .350 and putting himself in contention for Rookie of the Year. Despite homering in his first game, Castro hasn't shown much power in the bigs (just 3 HR's in 413 AB's), but that should improve as he fills out and gains some muscle. Castro has proven worthy of the #1 ranking and is a star in the making.
- Brett Jackson, CF - Jackson had a strong year, splitting his time between high A Daytona and AA Tennessee. The Cubs 2009 first round pick has shown good all-around skills, hitting .297/.395/.493, including 12 HR's, 30 SB's and 14 triples. The Cubs center fielder of the future will head to the Arizona Fall League to continue honing his skills and should start 2011 at AAA. He'll likely be up no later than September of next year and could be the Cubs starting center fielder in 2012 (moving Byrd to right).
- Josh Vitters - After a strong 2009 season, Vitters regressed some in 2010, hitting .247/.312/.405 between Daytona and Tennessee. His season was cut short when he was hit by a pitch on July 26 and broke his finger. He will also be heading to the Arizona Fall League to make up for lost time, but, unless he has a strong showing there, he is likely to start 2011 back at AA. Once considered the heir apparent to Aramis Ramirez, Vitters is in danger of being passed up by Ryan Flaherty.
- Andrew Cashner, SP/RP - The Cubs top pitching prospect heading into the season, Cashner pitched briliantly in 11 games (9 starts) split between Tennessee and Iowa (AAA), with a 2.05 ERA and 59 K's in 57 IP. Called up to help the Cubs shaky bullpen, Cashner has been shaky himself, posting a 5.56 ERA in 45.1 IP. It appears that the Cubs intend to make Cashner a setup man (and possibly future closer), however he will need to cut down on his walks (5.4/9IP) in order to be successful.
- Jay Jackson, SP - Jackson pitched the whole year at AAA Iowa. After a strong start (3.64 ERA before the All Star break), Jackson came crashing back to earth in the second half (6.20 ERA after the break). Overall, he finished with a 4.63 ERA in 157.1 IP and although his prospect status took a hit, he still projects to be a solid 3rd or 4th starter in the bigs.
- Hak-Ju Lee, SS - Lee followed up his strong US debut last year with a fine season at class A Peoria, making the Midwest League's All-Star team and earning a spot in the Futures Game. He has little power, but makes good contact and has good speed. For the season he hit .282/.354/.351 with 32 SB's. He profiles as a better defensive shortstop than Castro and could eventually push Castro to second.
- Logan Watkins, 2B - Lee's double-play partner at Peoria, Watkins had a sub-par year (by his previous standards). Known as a good contact hitter who led the Northwest league in plate appearances per strikeout (10.3), he saw his strikeout rate nearly double as he hit only .261/.351/.339 on the year. Like Lee, Watkins lacks power, but he has a strong arm and plus speed which makes him capable of playing multiple positions. He could end up as a super-utility player in the majors.
- Christopher Carpenter, SP - Armed with a mid-90's sinking fastball, Carpenter is one of those rare sinkerballer's who can also strike guys out (think Brandon Webb). He posted a 3.16 ERA with 100 K's in 119.2 IP at Tennessee this year before a late promotion to Iowa. He'll likely start next year at Iowa, but could be one of the first pitchers called up when the need arises.
- Ryan Flaherty, 2B/3B/SS - Flaherty spent most of the season at high A Daytona and hit .286/.348/.445 at that level. Flaherty has shown some pop, hitting 9 HR's in 491 AB's at Daytona (he hit 20 HR's in 485 AB's at Peoria in 2009), but lacks a set position. The Cubs have tried him at short, second and third in his brief career, but if he continues to hit, the Cubs will find a spot for him.
- D.J. LeMahieu, 2B - Described as the Cubs best "pure hitter" by Baseball America, LeMahieu showed why he is deserving of that title by hitting .314/.346/.386 at Tennessee. He has shown little power in his 2 years in the minors, but makes excellent contact (only 61 K's in 554 AB's) and is capable of spraying line drives all over the field. He will move up to AAA Iowa to start 2011 and could challenge Blake DeWitt for the second base job before the year is out.
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Brandon Guyer and Chris Archer named Cubs minor leaguer player andpitcher of the year
Yesterday, the Cubs announced that Brandon Guyer and Chris Archer were named the Cubs Minor League Player and Pitcher of the Year.
Guyer, a 5th round draft pick in 2007, hit .344/.398/.588 this year to go along with 13 HR's and 30 SB's. He was red hot in the second half of the season, hitting .424 in his last 170 AB's. He was named Southern League Player of the week for July 26-August 1 and was also named to the Southern League postseason All-Star team.
Archer, a 5th round pick in the 2006 draft, went 8-2 with a 1.70 ERA in 13 starts with Tennessee (70 IP) and overall he 15-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 149 K's in 142.1 IP. He was the Southern League Pitcher of the Week for July 19-25 and was also named to the Baseball America Minor League All-Star team.
Both Guyer and Archer helped lead the Smokies to an 86-53 record and the North division title. They start the Southern League Championship Series tonight, with Archer toeing the rubber for Tennessee.
It is a good sign of the Cubs minor league depth that neither Guyer or Archer made the Cubs Top 10 preseason prospect list (as determined by Baseball America).
Guyer, a 5th round draft pick in 2007, hit .344/.398/.588 this year to go along with 13 HR's and 30 SB's. He was red hot in the second half of the season, hitting .424 in his last 170 AB's. He was named Southern League Player of the week for July 26-August 1 and was also named to the Southern League postseason All-Star team.
Archer, a 5th round pick in the 2006 draft, went 8-2 with a 1.70 ERA in 13 starts with Tennessee (70 IP) and overall he 15-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 149 K's in 142.1 IP. He was the Southern League Pitcher of the Week for July 19-25 and was also named to the Baseball America Minor League All-Star team.
Both Guyer and Archer helped lead the Smokies to an 86-53 record and the North division title. They start the Southern League Championship Series tonight, with Archer toeing the rubber for Tennessee.
It is a good sign of the Cubs minor league depth that neither Guyer or Archer made the Cubs Top 10 preseason prospect list (as determined by Baseball America).
Monday, September 13, 2010
An early look at the Cubs 2011 payroll
For those of you who enjoy looking at player contracts and berating Jim Hendry for the mess he's made, there is an excellent website out there called Cot's Baseball Contracts, which tracks player contracts for each team. There is even a link to a spreadsheet that shows the projected contracts for 2010-2014 (when Alfonso Soriano's contract FINALLY expires).
Looking at the Cubs contracts, their opening day payroll for 2010 was $144,359,000, third in MLB behind only the Yankees and Red Sox. With the contracts of Ted Lilly, Derrek Lee, Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot now off the books and Xavier Nady's contract expiring after the season, the Cubs have some money to spend, should they decide to pursue some big name free agents this offseason.
With those contracts going away after this year, that frees up about $33 million for 2011. However, 5 Cubs (Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny, Koyie Hill and Geovany Soto) will be arbitration eligible this offseason and could be in line for significant raises (last year's average was 174%). Let's estimate that they will get raises totaling about $4 million.
In addition, I would think that the Cubs will likely non-tender Angel Guzman and Jeff Baker. Baker is expendable, as the Cubs have an abundance of middle infield prospects and can easily replace Baker with Darwin Barney or Ryan Flaherty. Guzman will likely be non-tendered due to his career threatening shoulder injury, although he may be resigned to a minor league deal. If we add their salaries back to the pot, Jim Hendry has roughly $30 million to spend.
Now, with attendance waning the last couple years (this year's average attendance of 37,879 is the lowest since 2003), its possible that the Rickett's family will cut the payroll for 2011. I think its likely that the payroll will drop a little to the $135 million range, which is where it was for the 2009 season.
Thus, with about $20-25 million to spend this offseason, what will Jim Hendry do? Well, a few weeks ago there was speculation that the Cubs are interested in signing Adam Dunn and that Dunn was interested in the Cubs. The Cubs could probably land Dunn with a 3-4 year offer of about $10-12 million per year. That would leave Hendry with some extra cash to pursue some bullpen help.
The question would be is that the best use of the Cubs' money. Dunn is the left handed power hitter the Cubs have been looking since their 2008 postseason ended so abruptly. However, Dunn has some issues, he strikes out a ton and, although his defense at first has improved some this year, he is still below league average and will probably get worse over the course of a 4 year contract.
As I mentioned in another post, I think the Cubs would be better served by trading for a major-league ready first baseman, such as Yonder Alonso of the Reds. If Hendry really wants to make a big splash in the free agent market, I would go after an ace pitcher, such as Cliff Lee.
Despite an abundance of starting pitching options for 2011, the Cubs do not have a true ace on their staff. Plus, with concerns over Carlos Silva's health (he's now dealing with elbow soreness) and Carlos Zambrano's temperment (he might be traded this offseason), the Cubs could use another quality starter.
Prediction
Despite the reservations about Dunn, I think that Jim Hendry will end up signing him this offseason for about $44 million over 4 years. The Cubs need to make a big splash in the free agent market to get fans interested again and in a few years Cubs fans will be lamenting another bad contract by Hendry.
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Looking at the Cubs contracts, their opening day payroll for 2010 was $144,359,000, third in MLB behind only the Yankees and Red Sox. With the contracts of Ted Lilly, Derrek Lee, Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot now off the books and Xavier Nady's contract expiring after the season, the Cubs have some money to spend, should they decide to pursue some big name free agents this offseason.
With those contracts going away after this year, that frees up about $33 million for 2011. However, 5 Cubs (Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny, Koyie Hill and Geovany Soto) will be arbitration eligible this offseason and could be in line for significant raises (last year's average was 174%). Let's estimate that they will get raises totaling about $4 million.
In addition, I would think that the Cubs will likely non-tender Angel Guzman and Jeff Baker. Baker is expendable, as the Cubs have an abundance of middle infield prospects and can easily replace Baker with Darwin Barney or Ryan Flaherty. Guzman will likely be non-tendered due to his career threatening shoulder injury, although he may be resigned to a minor league deal. If we add their salaries back to the pot, Jim Hendry has roughly $30 million to spend.
Now, with attendance waning the last couple years (this year's average attendance of 37,879 is the lowest since 2003), its possible that the Rickett's family will cut the payroll for 2011. I think its likely that the payroll will drop a little to the $135 million range, which is where it was for the 2009 season.
Thus, with about $20-25 million to spend this offseason, what will Jim Hendry do? Well, a few weeks ago there was speculation that the Cubs are interested in signing Adam Dunn and that Dunn was interested in the Cubs. The Cubs could probably land Dunn with a 3-4 year offer of about $10-12 million per year. That would leave Hendry with some extra cash to pursue some bullpen help.
The question would be is that the best use of the Cubs' money. Dunn is the left handed power hitter the Cubs have been looking since their 2008 postseason ended so abruptly. However, Dunn has some issues, he strikes out a ton and, although his defense at first has improved some this year, he is still below league average and will probably get worse over the course of a 4 year contract.
As I mentioned in another post, I think the Cubs would be better served by trading for a major-league ready first baseman, such as Yonder Alonso of the Reds. If Hendry really wants to make a big splash in the free agent market, I would go after an ace pitcher, such as Cliff Lee.
Despite an abundance of starting pitching options for 2011, the Cubs do not have a true ace on their staff. Plus, with concerns over Carlos Silva's health (he's now dealing with elbow soreness) and Carlos Zambrano's temperment (he might be traded this offseason), the Cubs could use another quality starter.
Prediction
Despite the reservations about Dunn, I think that Jim Hendry will end up signing him this offseason for about $44 million over 4 years. The Cubs need to make a big splash in the free agent market to get fans interested again and in a few years Cubs fans will be lamenting another bad contract by Hendry.
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Friday, September 10, 2010
Starlin Castro = Rookie of the Year?
The Chicago media is already starting to campaign for Starlin Castro as Rookie of the Year in the NL and in any other year Castro would probably run away with the award. However, this year the NL has an abundance of young, talented player who could legitimately win ROY.
Here's a look at the Contenders:
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
As you can see, Castro has some stiff competition for ROY. At this point, I would say that Jason Heyward is the favorite to win the award. Buster Posey would be a close second, but since he was not called up until June, it hurts his chances to win the award.
Jaime Garcia will probably end up third and Castro fourth in the voting. However, Cubs fans can take some solace in the fact that their farm system has finally produced a hitting prospect worthy of all the hype.
Here's a look at the Contenders:
Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
| Year | Age | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 20 | 447 | 77 | 128 | 27 | 4 | 16 | 66 | 9 | 72 | 112 | .286 | .393 | ||||||||||||||||
| 162 Game Avg. | 598 | 103 | 171 | 36 | 5 | 21 | 88 | 12 | 96 | 150 | .286 | .393 | |||||||||||||||||
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/10/2010.
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
| Year | Age | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 23 | 332 | 46 | 108 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 57 | 0 | 21 | 43 | .325 | .369 | ||||||||||||||||
| 162 Game Avg. | 595 | 80 | 188 | 34 | 3 | 20 | 97 | 0 | 36 | 80 | .315 | .358 | |||||||||||||||||
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/10/2010.
Jaime Garcia, P, St. Louis Cardinals
| Year | Age | W | L | ERA | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | |||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 23 | 13 | 7 | 2.69 | 157.1 | 144 | 47 | 9 | 63 | 128 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 162 Game Avg. | 15 | 8 | 2.96 | 181 | 165 | 60 | 14 | 74 | 142 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets
| Year | Age | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 23 | 446 | 62 | 114 | 27 | 1 | 18 | 64 | 2 | 61 | 123 | .256 | .344 | ||||||||||||||||
| 162 Game Avg. | 578 | 80 | 148 | 35 | 1 | 23 | 83 | 3 | 79 | 159 | .256 | .344 | |||||||||||||||||
Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Florida Marlins
| Year | Age | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 26 | 501 | 65 | 140 | 35 | 3 | 17 | 76 | 5 | 50 | 87 | .279 | .347 | ||||||||||||||||
| 162 Game Avg. | 547 | 69 | 153 | 38 | 3 | 20 | 83 | 5 | 54 | 95 | .279 | .346 | |||||||||||||||||
Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
| Year | Age | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 20 | 401 | 49 | 127 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 24 | 60 | .317 | .359 | ||||||||||||||||
| 162 Game Avg. | 607 | 74 | 192 | 44 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 12 | 36 | 91 | .317 | .359 | |||||||||||||||||
As you can see, Castro has some stiff competition for ROY. At this point, I would say that Jason Heyward is the favorite to win the award. Buster Posey would be a close second, but since he was not called up until June, it hurts his chances to win the award.
Jaime Garcia will probably end up third and Castro fourth in the voting. However, Cubs fans can take some solace in the fact that their farm system has finally produced a hitting prospect worthy of all the hype.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Cubs to step up managerial search
According to Bruce Levine on ESPN Chicago, the Cubs plan to interview several managerial candidates over the next 10 days. Those likely to be interviewed include Ryne Sandberg, former Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez, Cubs interim manager Mike Quade and former Indians manager Eric Wedge, who will be going through a second interview.
It is unknown if the Cubs will pursue Yankees manager Joe Girardi, as the Cubs would like to have a manager in place by their organizational meetings on November 2nd and, if the Yankees make the World Series, Girardi could be tied up until November 4th.
Assuming that Girardi is out of the picture and that Fredi Gonzalez replaces Bobby Cox in Atlanta, as has been rumored, that leaves Sandberg, Quade and Wedge as the leading candidates to replace Lou Piniella.
Sandberg has fared well this year as Iowa's manager, finishing the season with a 82-62 record, which tied Memphis for the division lead. However, Iowa did not make the playoffs as Memphis had a better divisional record (to break the tie).
For his part, Quade has led the Cubs to a 9-5 record since taking over for Piniella. Although its a small sample, that's a pretty good record for a team that was 51-75 under Lou's guidance.
Wedge compiled a 561-573 record over 7 years with the Indians from 2003-2009. He was named the American League Manager of the Year in 2007 after leading the Indians to the division title.
My gut feeling is that Jim Hendry will go with someone with Cubs ties and if Joe Girardi cannot be stolen away from the Yankees, then the job will likely go to either Sandberg or Quade. Given the choice of those two, I think that Sandberg would be given the job, mainly for his name recognition and the fact that he has proven himself in the minors.
In any case, we should have an answer by the end of October.
It is unknown if the Cubs will pursue Yankees manager Joe Girardi, as the Cubs would like to have a manager in place by their organizational meetings on November 2nd and, if the Yankees make the World Series, Girardi could be tied up until November 4th.
Assuming that Girardi is out of the picture and that Fredi Gonzalez replaces Bobby Cox in Atlanta, as has been rumored, that leaves Sandberg, Quade and Wedge as the leading candidates to replace Lou Piniella.
Sandberg has fared well this year as Iowa's manager, finishing the season with a 82-62 record, which tied Memphis for the division lead. However, Iowa did not make the playoffs as Memphis had a better divisional record (to break the tie).
For his part, Quade has led the Cubs to a 9-5 record since taking over for Piniella. Although its a small sample, that's a pretty good record for a team that was 51-75 under Lou's guidance.
Wedge compiled a 561-573 record over 7 years with the Indians from 2003-2009. He was named the American League Manager of the Year in 2007 after leading the Indians to the division title.
My gut feeling is that Jim Hendry will go with someone with Cubs ties and if Joe Girardi cannot be stolen away from the Yankees, then the job will likely go to either Sandberg or Quade. Given the choice of those two, I think that Sandberg would be given the job, mainly for his name recognition and the fact that he has proven himself in the minors.
In any case, we should have an answer by the end of October.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
The Cubs' 2011 Rotation
The guys over at mlbtraderumors.com have been doing a regular feature discussing the projected 2011 rotations for each team. They recently discussed the Cubs rotation, so I thought I'd take a crack at it too.
The Cubs starting pitchers have compiled a 4.12 ERA and a 46-52 record on the season. However, that includes the performance of Ted Lilly, who has since been traded. Lilly made 18 starts with the Cubs and, despite a 3-8 record, posted a 3.69 ERA
Even without Lilly the Cubs have 5 pitchers, who have made at least 15 starts for the club, under contract for 2011.
Ryan Dempster - Dempster is signed through 2011, with a player option for 2012. He leads all Cubs starters in wins (12) and K's (177) and was second to Lilly in ERA (3.76). He should remain the Cubs ace for 2011.
Tom Gorzelanny - Gorzelanny will enter his first year of arbitration next year and should get a nice raise after bouncing back from poor seasons in 2008 and 2009 to go 7-8 with a 3.90 ERA. The lefty deserves to be in the 2011 rotation.
Carlos Silva - Silva has been one of the biggest surprises this year, compiling a 10-5 record to go along with a 4.22 ERA (including tonight's start). He missed a month with a heart condition and may have lost his mojo even before his stint on the DL, but he will be given an opportunity to prove that 2010 was no fluke.
Randy Wells - After an excellent rookie campaign (12-10, 3.05 ERA), Wells has come back to earth with 6-12 record and 4.56 ERA in 2010. In about the same number of innings as last year, Wells has seen his hits (+18), HR's (+4) and walks (+10) all increase over last year. He has also seen his K's increase (+24). Wells will have to prove himself again next year and with younger, more talented pitchers waiting in the wings, he will be on a short leash.
Carlos Zambrano - Zambrano is the biggest X-Factor heading into 2011. After a crazy season in which he has bounced from the rotation, to the bullpen, to the rotation, to the restricted list and now back to the rotation, its unclear what the future holds for Zambrano. Jim Hendry could try to trade him this offseason, however, with 2 years and nearly $36 million remaining on his contract, trading him will be difficult. Zambrano has gone 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA since the All-start break and could be improving his trade value with every start. If he stays with the team, he will likely slot in as the number 2 or 3 starter.
As it stands now, those are the likely starters for the 2011 season, however if Zambrano is traded or one of the other starters is injured or ineffective, the Cubs have plenty of options waiting in the wings.
Sean Marshall - After taking over the 8th inning duties and helping to stabilize the bullpen, Marshall has expressed interest in returning to the starting rotation. If the Cubs can find other bullpen options for 2011, then Marshall could get his shot, otherwise, its likely that he will continue to thrive in the bullpen in 2010.
Thomas Diamond - After pitching well in the minors, Diamond was given a 3 start audition with the Cubs in early August and failed to impress with an 8.31 ERA. Walks have been the downfall for Diamond throughout his career and his 10 walks in 13 IP as a starter does not inspire confidence.
Casey Coleman - Coleman fared a bit better than Diamond in his 4 start audition in August, posting a 4.76 ERA. He also has trouble with walks and his strikeout rate is pretty low (just 8 in 22.2 IP). He is the son and grandson of former major league pitchers (both named Joe) and the Coleman family is the first to have 3 generations of pitchers reach the big leagues.
Andrew Cashner - Currently working out of the bullpen, Cashner was a starter in the minors and could easily find his way back there next year. Cashner compiled a 2.79 ERA in 177.1 IP in the minors and is the Cubs top pitching prospect.
Jeff Samardzija - Samardzija pitched 3.1 innings out of the Cubs' pen early in the season before being shipped out to AAA to work as a starter. His results at AAA have not been great (4.37 ERA and 67 walks in 111.1 IP) and he is quickly getting passed up by other prospects. 2011 may very well be his last chance with the Cubs.
Jay Jackson - Behind only Cashner on the Cubs pitching prospect charts, Jackson has struggled some this year at AAA Iowa, with a 4.63 ERA in 157.1 IP. He still has a lot of upside and could be a factor in 2011.
Chris Carpenter - Ranked behind Cashner and Jackson amongst the Cubs top pitching prospects, Carpenter put up strong numbers at AA Tennessee during 2010 and may have passed up Jackson on the depth chart. Overall, Carpenter went 8-6 with a 3.41 ERA, including 3 starts at AAA. He struck out 112 in 134.2 IP, but like most young pitchers, he needs to work on his command (3.8 BB/9IP).
Chris Archer - After a strong 2009 campaign (2.81 ERA and 119 K's in 109 IP at class A Peoria), Archer has been even more impressive this year, compiling a 2.34 ERA and 149 K's in 142.1 IP split between high A and AA. He will likely continue his ascent to the bigs at AAA next year.
Trey McNutt - Not as highly ranked as some of the other pitching prospects, McNutt has jumped 3 levels this year while compiling a 2.48 ERA with 132 K's in 116.1 IP.
The Cubs have some pitching depth both at the major league level as well as the high minors. They could trade some of that depth to fill other holes, but would probably be better off holding on to them.
As it stands now, only Ryan Dempster is probably guaranteed a rotation spot next year. The others will have to prove themselves in spring training. Even if they do start the season in the rotation, they will have to perform or one of the Cubs' prospects will be waiting to take their place.
The Cubs starting pitchers have compiled a 4.12 ERA and a 46-52 record on the season. However, that includes the performance of Ted Lilly, who has since been traded. Lilly made 18 starts with the Cubs and, despite a 3-8 record, posted a 3.69 ERA
Even without Lilly the Cubs have 5 pitchers, who have made at least 15 starts for the club, under contract for 2011.
Ryan Dempster - Dempster is signed through 2011, with a player option for 2012. He leads all Cubs starters in wins (12) and K's (177) and was second to Lilly in ERA (3.76). He should remain the Cubs ace for 2011.
Tom Gorzelanny - Gorzelanny will enter his first year of arbitration next year and should get a nice raise after bouncing back from poor seasons in 2008 and 2009 to go 7-8 with a 3.90 ERA. The lefty deserves to be in the 2011 rotation.
Carlos Silva - Silva has been one of the biggest surprises this year, compiling a 10-5 record to go along with a 4.22 ERA (including tonight's start). He missed a month with a heart condition and may have lost his mojo even before his stint on the DL, but he will be given an opportunity to prove that 2010 was no fluke.
Randy Wells - After an excellent rookie campaign (12-10, 3.05 ERA), Wells has come back to earth with 6-12 record and 4.56 ERA in 2010. In about the same number of innings as last year, Wells has seen his hits (+18), HR's (+4) and walks (+10) all increase over last year. He has also seen his K's increase (+24). Wells will have to prove himself again next year and with younger, more talented pitchers waiting in the wings, he will be on a short leash.
Carlos Zambrano - Zambrano is the biggest X-Factor heading into 2011. After a crazy season in which he has bounced from the rotation, to the bullpen, to the rotation, to the restricted list and now back to the rotation, its unclear what the future holds for Zambrano. Jim Hendry could try to trade him this offseason, however, with 2 years and nearly $36 million remaining on his contract, trading him will be difficult. Zambrano has gone 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA since the All-start break and could be improving his trade value with every start. If he stays with the team, he will likely slot in as the number 2 or 3 starter.
As it stands now, those are the likely starters for the 2011 season, however if Zambrano is traded or one of the other starters is injured or ineffective, the Cubs have plenty of options waiting in the wings.
Sean Marshall - After taking over the 8th inning duties and helping to stabilize the bullpen, Marshall has expressed interest in returning to the starting rotation. If the Cubs can find other bullpen options for 2011, then Marshall could get his shot, otherwise, its likely that he will continue to thrive in the bullpen in 2010.
Thomas Diamond - After pitching well in the minors, Diamond was given a 3 start audition with the Cubs in early August and failed to impress with an 8.31 ERA. Walks have been the downfall for Diamond throughout his career and his 10 walks in 13 IP as a starter does not inspire confidence.
Casey Coleman - Coleman fared a bit better than Diamond in his 4 start audition in August, posting a 4.76 ERA. He also has trouble with walks and his strikeout rate is pretty low (just 8 in 22.2 IP). He is the son and grandson of former major league pitchers (both named Joe) and the Coleman family is the first to have 3 generations of pitchers reach the big leagues.
Andrew Cashner - Currently working out of the bullpen, Cashner was a starter in the minors and could easily find his way back there next year. Cashner compiled a 2.79 ERA in 177.1 IP in the minors and is the Cubs top pitching prospect.
Jeff Samardzija - Samardzija pitched 3.1 innings out of the Cubs' pen early in the season before being shipped out to AAA to work as a starter. His results at AAA have not been great (4.37 ERA and 67 walks in 111.1 IP) and he is quickly getting passed up by other prospects. 2011 may very well be his last chance with the Cubs.
Jay Jackson - Behind only Cashner on the Cubs pitching prospect charts, Jackson has struggled some this year at AAA Iowa, with a 4.63 ERA in 157.1 IP. He still has a lot of upside and could be a factor in 2011.
Chris Carpenter - Ranked behind Cashner and Jackson amongst the Cubs top pitching prospects, Carpenter put up strong numbers at AA Tennessee during 2010 and may have passed up Jackson on the depth chart. Overall, Carpenter went 8-6 with a 3.41 ERA, including 3 starts at AAA. He struck out 112 in 134.2 IP, but like most young pitchers, he needs to work on his command (3.8 BB/9IP).
Chris Archer - After a strong 2009 campaign (2.81 ERA and 119 K's in 109 IP at class A Peoria), Archer has been even more impressive this year, compiling a 2.34 ERA and 149 K's in 142.1 IP split between high A and AA. He will likely continue his ascent to the bigs at AAA next year.
Trey McNutt - Not as highly ranked as some of the other pitching prospects, McNutt has jumped 3 levels this year while compiling a 2.48 ERA with 132 K's in 116.1 IP.
The Cubs have some pitching depth both at the major league level as well as the high minors. They could trade some of that depth to fill other holes, but would probably be better off holding on to them.
As it stands now, only Ryan Dempster is probably guaranteed a rotation spot next year. The others will have to prove themselves in spring training. Even if they do start the season in the rotation, they will have to perform or one of the Cubs' prospects will be waiting to take their place.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Jackson, Vitters, Flaherty and Carpenter lead Cubs prospects into thedesert.
The Arizona Fall League preliminary rosters were announced yesterday and 4 of the Cubs' Top 10 prospects are expected to head into the desert. Here is a breakdown of all the prospects the Cubs will be sending to the AFL:
Brett Jackson - With Starlin Castro graduating to the majors, Jackson would have to rate as the Cubs top prospect. After a solid season split between high A Daytona and AA Tennessee, Jackson will get more seasoning in the AFL. The hope is that he can make the jump to AAA in 2011 and be ready to take over in center (with Marlon Byrd moving to right) when Kosuke Fukudome's contract expires after 2011.
Josh Vitters - Vitters struggled this year, both on the field and with injuries. He hit just .223 in his first taste of AA and didn't show the same pop as last year (just 10 HR's in 316 AB's). The Cubs are hoping that a stint in the AFL will get him back on track.
Ryan Flaherty - Like Vitters, Flaherty struggled in his stint at AA Tennessee (.183 in 71 AB's). However, he fared well at high A Daytona (.286 in 406 AB's). If Vitters doesn't progress, Flaherty could be an option at third. He has played second, short and third since being drafted in 2008 (41st overall) and could end up as a Mark DeRosa type super-utility player.
Chris Carpenter - One of the Cubs big three pitching prospects, along with Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson, Carpenter had another good year. He posted a 3.16 ERA in 119.2 IP at Tennessee, before getting roughed up a bit in a couple late season starts for Iowa. With Cashner being groomed for the setup role in Chicago, Jackson and Carpenter could be mainstays in the Cubs rotation, perhaps as early as mid-season 2011.
David Cales - Growing up on the south side as a Sox fan, Cales probably never dreamed of playing for the Cubs, but that is getting closer to becoming a reality. A righthander reliever, Cales put up good numbers at AA this year (2.51 ERA in 46.2 IP) before getting a wake-up call at AAA (7.43 ERA in 23 IP). His fastball sits in the low 90's and he has some good secondary pitches. If he keeps improving, he could be in the Cubs bullpen sometime in 2011.
Kyle Smit - Acquired from the Dodgers in the Ted Lilly trade, Smit fared pretty well for the AA Tennessee Smokies, with a 2.08 ERA in 17.3 IP. Overall, he posted a 2.28 ERA in 71 IP across two levels. He probably doesn't have a lot of upside, but he could be a decent middle reliever in the bigs.
Jake Muyco - Selected by the Cubs in the 8th round of the 2005 draft, Muyco has not been overly impressive in the minors, including a 4.24 ERA in 74.1 IP (with just 31 K's). He's not going to overpower anyone, but he did manage to make it to AAA Iowa this year. This will be his chance to prove himself worthy of a 40-man roster spot.
Those are the 7 players the Cubs will be sending to the AFL (barring any injuries or last-minute changes). Jackson (#2), Vitters (#3), Carpenter (#8) and Flaherty (#9) all made the Cubs top 10 prospects, as determined by Baseball America. So, if you're in Arizona this fall, it would be a good time to check out a game or two and see the future of this Cubs franchise.
Brett Jackson - With Starlin Castro graduating to the majors, Jackson would have to rate as the Cubs top prospect. After a solid season split between high A Daytona and AA Tennessee, Jackson will get more seasoning in the AFL. The hope is that he can make the jump to AAA in 2011 and be ready to take over in center (with Marlon Byrd moving to right) when Kosuke Fukudome's contract expires after 2011.
Josh Vitters - Vitters struggled this year, both on the field and with injuries. He hit just .223 in his first taste of AA and didn't show the same pop as last year (just 10 HR's in 316 AB's). The Cubs are hoping that a stint in the AFL will get him back on track.
Ryan Flaherty - Like Vitters, Flaherty struggled in his stint at AA Tennessee (.183 in 71 AB's). However, he fared well at high A Daytona (.286 in 406 AB's). If Vitters doesn't progress, Flaherty could be an option at third. He has played second, short and third since being drafted in 2008 (41st overall) and could end up as a Mark DeRosa type super-utility player.
Chris Carpenter - One of the Cubs big three pitching prospects, along with Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson, Carpenter had another good year. He posted a 3.16 ERA in 119.2 IP at Tennessee, before getting roughed up a bit in a couple late season starts for Iowa. With Cashner being groomed for the setup role in Chicago, Jackson and Carpenter could be mainstays in the Cubs rotation, perhaps as early as mid-season 2011.
David Cales - Growing up on the south side as a Sox fan, Cales probably never dreamed of playing for the Cubs, but that is getting closer to becoming a reality. A righthander reliever, Cales put up good numbers at AA this year (2.51 ERA in 46.2 IP) before getting a wake-up call at AAA (7.43 ERA in 23 IP). His fastball sits in the low 90's and he has some good secondary pitches. If he keeps improving, he could be in the Cubs bullpen sometime in 2011.
Kyle Smit - Acquired from the Dodgers in the Ted Lilly trade, Smit fared pretty well for the AA Tennessee Smokies, with a 2.08 ERA in 17.3 IP. Overall, he posted a 2.28 ERA in 71 IP across two levels. He probably doesn't have a lot of upside, but he could be a decent middle reliever in the bigs.
Jake Muyco - Selected by the Cubs in the 8th round of the 2005 draft, Muyco has not been overly impressive in the minors, including a 4.24 ERA in 74.1 IP (with just 31 K's). He's not going to overpower anyone, but he did manage to make it to AAA Iowa this year. This will be his chance to prove himself worthy of a 40-man roster spot.
Those are the 7 players the Cubs will be sending to the AFL (barring any injuries or last-minute changes). Jackson (#2), Vitters (#3), Carpenter (#8) and Flaherty (#9) all made the Cubs top 10 prospects, as determined by Baseball America. So, if you're in Arizona this fall, it would be a good time to check out a game or two and see the future of this Cubs franchise.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Jim Hendry's to do list this offseason.
With the Cubs season fading (painfully) into the sunset, here is my offseason to do list for Jim Hendry to try to fix this mess:
As you can see, it should be a busy offseason for Hendry.
- Hire a Manager - The short list of candidates appears to include Ryne Sandberg and Mike Quade (the only two candidates that Hendry has publicly confirmed), along with former Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez and possibly Joe Girardi (if he can be pried away from the Yankees). One thing is for sure, the Cubs will not hire another big name, late career veteran manager.
- Trade Carlos Zambrano - Zambrano has worn out his welcome in Chicago and the Cubs are hoping his anger management therapy and second half success (2.18 ERA after the All Star break) will make him more appealing to other teams. The Cubs will likely have to eat a good portion of his contract or take another bad contract in return, how much so will likely affect what other moves Hendry can make.
- While you're at it, see if anyone wants Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano - Fukudome has not had his typical second half fade this year and Soriano has bounced back from a sub-par 2009 season. The Cubs are hoping this will be enough to allow them to dump these bloated contracts on another team. As with Zambrano, the Cubs will likely have to eat some of their contracts to trade them, but the Cubs need to free up some cash.
- Shore up the bullpen - The Cubs bullpen has one of the worst ERA's in the league (5.17). This is the result of overpaying for mediocrity (John Grabow anyone?) and relying too much on young, inexperienced relievers (e.g. Esmailin Caridad). The Cubs were shut out in their attempts to sign a proven veteran setup man last offseason, hopefully Hendry can save enough money from trading Zambrano, Fukudome and Soriano to sign one (or two) this year.
- Continue to invest in scouting and the farm system - Over the last couple years, Hendry has improved the Cubs farm system to the extent that it moved up from being ranked 27th (out of the 30 major league teams) in 2009 to 15th in 2010, as ranked by Baseball America. Teams, like the Marlins, realize that you can be successful, without spending a lot of money, if you can go out and identify and sign (or trade for) the best talent.
- Find a First Baseman - I discussed this some in one of my earlier posts, but to reiterate, the Cubs should try to trade for a young, major-league ready first base prospect this offseason. A couple of teams have already beaten the Cubs to the punch, with the Mariners acquiring Justin Smoak from the Rangers and the Astros acquiring Brett Wallace from the A's. But there are some intriguing possibilities that remain out there, such as Yonder Alonso of the Reds (blocked by Joey Votto) and Chris Parmelee of the Twins (blocked by Justin Morneau).
As you can see, it should be a busy offseason for Hendry.
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