Saturday, August 28, 2010

Joe Girardi speculation

"I could give a **** about North Carolina right now", Roy Williams, Kansas basketball coach (at the time) shortly before taking the North Carolina job.

"We're not worried about it for next year.  I'm worried about right now", Joe Girardi, New York Yankees manager (for right now).

With Joe Girardi in town, as his Yankees are playing the White Sox, reporters asked him the inevitable questions regarding his interest in the Cubs managerial position.  Girardi, for his part, said all the right things, but he didn't say the one thing Yankees' fans wanted to hear, that he is not interested in the Cubs job, he wants to manage the Yankees.

Many have asked why Girardi would even consider the Cubs, when he can stay with the Yankees and have a chance to win the World Series every year.

I would say that the number one reason is probably just that.  The Yankees are expected to win the World Series every year.  Anything short of that is a failure.  Prior to winning the Series last year, New York fans were growing restless with Girardi and chances are if he had not won last year, he would not have been around for this year.

With the Cubs, expectations will not be high for next year (or for any year, for that matter).  If he were to make the playoffs, he would be considered a success.  And if he were to win the World Series?  He would be God-like in this town, second to maybe Mike Ditka, if anyone.

Add to that his roots in Illinois (born in Peoria) and Chicago (attended Northwestern) and that he would be closer to his father (who suffers from Alzheimer's), and you have to figure that Chicago would have some appeal to him.

As a free agent at the end of the season, I've got to think that Girardi will at least listen to the Cubs, should they come calling.  But, after getting passed over the first time (for Piniella), he probably won't meet with Hendry unless he practically guaranteed the job.

So, this offseason, should you get wind of some clandestine meeting between Hendry and Girardi, expect an announcement of the new Cubs manager to follow.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Who's on first in 2011?

Less than a week after Derrek Lee was traded to the Braves, everyone is speculating on who is going to replace him in 2011.

It was thought that Tyler Colvin would be converted to first, to give the Cubs an internal option.  However, after taking over as manager, Mike Quade nixed that idea, leading to speculation that the Cubs could go after a free agent, such as Adam Dunn.

Dunn wouldn't be a bad choice to replace Lee.  He gets on base, hits 40 HR's a year and would give the Cubs the lefthanded power bat they've been searching for.  The problem with Dunn is that he plays poor defense and at age 30, the length of the contract could be a big factor.

The Cubs do not want another Alfonso Soriano and for his part, Dunn has stated he would be OK with a 3 or 4 year deal.  If the Cubs could sign him to a 3 year deal with an option for a 4th year, that would be reasonable.

Other than Dunn, the other potential free agents aren't as appealing.  Paul Konerko of the White Sox is probably the best of the rest, but at age 34, he may not be a good piece to rebuild around.  David Ortiz is a DH, Lance Berkman is showing signs of deteriorating skills and Carlos Pena strikes out way too much.

The Cubs could shake things up and sign a third baseman and move Aramis Ramirez to first.  However, the third base market isn't much better.  Adrian Beltre tops the list and is hitting .325/.364/.558 for the Red Sox this year.  Signing a third baseman could allow the Cubs to let Aramis Ramirez walk when his contract expires after the 2011 season and use that money to go after either Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder, who are likely to become free agents after 2011 as well.

Of course the Cubs could try to trade for either Gonzalez or Fielder during this offseason.  However, would it make sense for the Cubs to give away young talent when they are unlikely to contend next year and can just sign either of those players as a free agent after 2011?

A final option is to trade major-league ready prospects for a major-league ready first baseman.  The Cubs have an excess of middle infield prospects in their system and some good starting pitching prospects and could possibly package one of each for a good first base prospect.  One potential trade partner could be the Reds, who have a good first base prospect in Yonder Alonzo who happens to be blocked by MVP candidate and triple crown threat Joey Votto. Perhaps a package of Jay Jackson and Hak-Ju Lee could work.

In any case, it will be interesting to see what Jim Hendry does to fill the first base void this offseason.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Lou Piniella steps down as Cubs Manager

Due to the health of his mother, Lou Piniella decided to retire after Sunday's game, 37 games earlier than expected.  He will be replaced by third base coach Mike Quade, who is being considered as Lou's possible replacement.  Bench coach Alan Trammel, who filled in for Lou when he missed 4 games in San Francisco when his mother was hospitalized, will not be a candidate for next season.

In just 4 seasons, Piniella managed a record of 316-293.  His 316 victories place him 8th on the Cubs all-time list.  Also, his .519 winning percentage ranks him 11th on the list.

Although he never took the Cubs to the promised land, he did lead the Cubs to the playoffs his first two years.  No Cubs manager since Frank Chance in 1907 and 1908 has led the Cubs to two straight postseason appearances.

What I liked about Piniella was that he wasn't afraid to go against convention.  Whether it was selecting Kevin Gregg as his closer for 2008, when Carlos Marmol was a more dominant reliever in 2007 or moving Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen, Lou was never afraid to take chances.

He was never the same fiery manager that won a World Series with the Reds in 1990 and some may say he lost his passion for managing during last year's train wreck of a season, but he certainly knew baseball and how to manage a team.

One thing is for certain, he was one of the Cubs better managers and he will be missed.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Cubs trade Derrek Lee for 3 prospects

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs have traded Derrek Lee to the Atlanta Braves for minor league pitchers Robinson Lopez, Tyrell Harris and Jeffrey Lorrick.

Lopez, a righthanded starter, was the only prospect of the 3 ranked among the Braves top 30 prospects by Baseball America, coming in at #16.  Harris and Lorrick, both have been working out of the pen and do not offer much more than organizational depth.

Overall, this was little more than a salary dump for the Cubs.  The fact that Hendry was able to get at least one decent prospect in the deal is just gravy.

This likely ends Derrek Lee's tenure with the Cubs, as its unlikely the Cubs will pursue him as a free agent in the offseason.  He played nearly 7 years with the Cubs and finished his Cubs career with a line of .298/.378/.524, including 179 HR's.

Cubs close to trading Derrek Lee to Braves

According to David Kaplan of CSN Chicago, the Cubs are close to trading Derrek Lee to the Atlanta Braves.  Its unclear what the Cubs would be getting in return, but its unlikely to be much as this is mostly a salary dump move on their part.

Lee, who vetoed a trade to the Angels last month, reportedly would be interested in joining the Braves as they are in first place in the NL East.

Bruce Levin of ESPN Chicago is also reporting that the Cubs and Braves are working on a deal.

More updates to come....

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Sean Marshal: Starter or Reliever in 2011?

The 2010 season is not over yet and already the competition for the 2011 starting rotation has begun.  A month ago, Sean Marshall campaigned for a starting spot next year and today Tom Gorzelanny stated that he feels he's earned a spot in next year's rotation.

Gordon Wittenmyers of the Sun Times speculates that Marshall's solid work as the Cubs setup man this year will likely place him right back there in 2011.  However, is this really the best use of one of your better pitchers?

First of all, there is no denying that Marshall has been spectacular this year in the bullpen.  He has compiled a stellar 2.33 ERA with 74 K's in 61.2 IP.  He has been equally effective against righthanders (.204 average) and lefthanders (.217) and has helped stabilize a bullpen that was in shambles at the beginning of the year.

Second, Marshall hasn't fared particularly well as a starter, posting a 4.86 ERA for his career in 311 IP.  However, throw out his rookie year, in which he posted a 5.59 ERA in 125.2 IP and his ERA is a more respectable 4.37.

With his ability to get both lefthanders and righthanders out, I believe that Marshall could excel in a starting role.  However, unless the Cubs go out and acquire a free agent reliever to fill the setup role, its likely that Marshall will return to that role in 2011.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Catching up with the Cubs

Here's the latest news and notes on the Cubs as they take two of three from the Cardinals:

After trading away Mike Fontenot for a minor leaguer, the Cubs announced that John Grabow would be out for the year with a torn MCL in his knee.  Grabow finishes the year with a 7.36 ERA in 25.2 IP.  Mark's Remarks - How's that 2-year $7.5 million signing looking now, Mr. Hendry?

Despite the Cubs' struggles this year, both Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee think the Cubs could win in 2011 with only a few movesMark's Remarks - If two of the moves are replacing Ramirez and Lee, they might have a chance.

One things for sure, the Cubs are giving their youngsters a shot this season and one bright spot has been rookie sensation Starlin Castro, who just might contend for the batting titleMark's Remarks - some questioned whether bringing him up so early would hurt his development, but he is hitting .403 since July 10th and .323 on the season.

As the Cubs play out the rest of this lost season, there are those who are already speculating as to what the 2011 starting rotation will be.  Ryan Dempster is a lock and Tom Gorzelanny has looked pretty good this season.  Beyond that, you have Carlos Silva, who has questions about his health and whether he can repeat this year's performance.  Also, Randy Wells has followed up his breakout year in 2009 with a less than stellar effort in 2010.  Finally, the 5th spot is up for grabs, assuming Carlos Zambrano is traded in the offseason.  Thomas Diamond has not showed much so far.  Andrew Cashner figures to get a long look and Sean Marshall has expressed interest in returning to the rotation.  Mark's Remarks - what was once a strength of the Cubs is beginning to look like a weakness.  Don't rule out the Cubs resigning Ted Lilly in the offseason.

Finally, in sort of a chicken or the egg kind of reasoning, Alfonso Soriano thinks that it takes a good team for a player to have a good yearMark's Remarks - Of course, if all your players are having a good year, wouldn't you likely have a good team?

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Cubs trade Mike Fontenot to the Giants

The Cubs continued their efforts to purge their roster of former starting second basemen today by trading Mike Fontenot to the San Francisco Giants for minor leaguer Evan Crawford.

Even with the trade of Ryan Theriot at the deadline, the Cubs had a glut of second basemen in Blake DeWitt (who they received for Theriot), Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker.  The trade opens up a spot on the big league roster for shortstop prospect Darwin Barney, who was hitting .297 at Iowa with 11 SB's.  Barney will probably fill in a little at second and short down the stretch.

Crawford was drafted by the Giants in the 9th round of the 2009 draft.  He was not ranked among the Giants top 30 prospects by Baseball America heading into the season.  On the year, he was hitting .255 with 24 SB's in 432 AB's.  He tends to strike out too much (108 K's) and profiles as a 4th or 5th outfielder/defensive replacement.

Overall, not a bad prospect to get for basically a spare part and it continues the Cubs trend of shedding their veterans and giving some of the youngsters a chance.

Sunday, August 8, 2010

What to watch as the season winds down.

After losing 10 of their last 11 games, the Cubs have pretty much put the nail in the coffin on this season.  Baseball Prospectus puts the Cubs odds at making the playoffs at less than 0.002%.

With the Cubs seemingly mailing it in as the season winds down, fans begin to wonder "what's the point of watching this garbage?".  Well, here are some things that may keep even the casual fan interested through the end of the season:

Can Carlos Zambrano turn it around?

Zambrano is getting his third (and possibly final) chance in the Cubs rotation starting Monday.  After going from the rotation to the bullpen to the rotation to the restricted list to the bullpen and now back to the rotation, Zambrano's 2010 season has been one crazy roller coaster ride.  He will have approximately 10 starts (or less, if he implodes again) to prove himself a capable starter and give Jim Hendry some leverage for a potential offseason trade.

Who's on Second?

After being acquired from the Dodgers (along with a couple minor leaguers) for Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot, Blake DeWitt has started all but one game at second for the Cubs.  With Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker also on the team, some thought there might be some kind of platoon or timeshare for the remainder of the season.  However, it appears that DeWitt is going to be the Cubs second baseman for at least the near future.

Will the Cubs make any waiver trades?

With their hefty contracts, its likely that Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome and Derrek Lee all clear waivers and Xavier Nady might as well.  Lee has already utilized his no-trade clause to turn down one trade and has made it clear that he wants to stay in Chicago through the end of the season.  Zambrano seems agreeable to a trade, but its unlikely anything gets done with him until the offseason.  There's been no talk of Soriano being traded, but his value is up (since last season) and now might be the time to make a move.  Fukudome and Nady are probably the likeliest players to be moved in August and odds are that one of the two is moved.

Who's the 5th starter?

With Ted Lilly gone, the Cubs called up former first round pick (of the Rangers) Thomas Diamond to take his spot.  After pitching well in his first outing, he had a bit of a clunker today, but the Cubs are going to give him every opportunity to show his stuff and give themselves a headstart on figuring out next year's rotation.  Its possible the Cubs could also bring up Jeff Samardzija and/or Jay Jackson from AAA in September (when rosters expand) to make it an open audition for the 2011 rotation.

Can Aramis Ramirez hit over .250?

After hitting .313 in July, Aramis Ramirez has his season average up to .224.  If he were to keep up that pace over the rest of the season, he would end up with a .258 average.  However, that would take a level of consistency he hasn't shown all year.  The good news is that with his substandard season, Ramirez is unlikely to use his option to opt out of his contract after the season.  With third base prospect, Josh Vitters hitting only .223 at AA, the Cubs don't have any internal options ready to replace Ramirez should he leave.

Could someone else start over Lee down the stretch?

Derrek Lee has had a forgettable season of his own this year, hitting only .247 with just 12 HR's.  With his contract set to expire at the end of the year, the Cubs could give someone else a shot to show what they can do at first.  The problem is that the Cubs do not have any first base prospects they can call up to take Lee's place.  Also, the most logical choice to get playing time at first base, Xavier Nady's contract also expires and the end of the season.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Zambrano returns to the rotation on Monday

Lou Piniella announced today that Carlos Zambrano will return to the starting rotation beginning Monday against the Giants.  Zambrano will be replacing Carlos Silva in the rotation.  Silva was placed on the DL on Monday with an accelerated heart rate and its unknown how long he will be out.

This is Zambrano's third chance at the rotation this year.  After starting out the season in the rotation (and pitching poorly), he was moved to the bullpen to try to shore up an area of weakness for the Cubs.  After he was unsuccessful there, he was moved back into the rotation on June 4th and made 5 starts before his now infamous meltdown on June 25th.

This is probably the Cubs and Zambrano's last chance to re-establish some value so Jim Hendry can trade him for more than a bag of peanuts in the offseason.

For what its worth, Zambrano is now reportedly willing to waive his no-trade clause, so apparently the Cubs plan to make Zambrano want to leave is working.  The problem, of course, is that Zambrano has almost zero value at this point and no one wants him and his hefty contract.  Zambrano will likely pass through waivers this month, but don't expect a trade.

What's more likely is that Hendry will do the same thing he did with Milton Bradley last year and trade Zambrano in the offseason.  The Cubs will probably have to take a bad contract (or two) in return, but many players and fans would say its worth it (especially if the player acquired turns out to be another Carlos Silva).

In any case, this appears to be Zambrano's swan song in Chicago.  Enjoy it while you can.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Catching up with the Cubs

With the trade deadline over and Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot enjoying a pennant race (with another team), let's catch up on the latest Cubs news.

While everyone is aware of the Lilly and Theriot trade, some may not be aware that the Mets offered Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo for Carlos Zambrano.  Jim Hendry turned it down.  Hendry's probably hoping that Zambrano can rebuild some of his value over the rest of the season and make it easier to trade him in the offseason.  Mark's Remarks - Despite all of Zambrano's problems, Hendry was right to turn down this trade.  However, its likely that the Cubs will have to take on a bad contract in return if they do move Zambrano.

Speaking of Zambrano, he did return to the Cubs on Friday and may be needed back in the rotation sooner than expected.  With the trade of Lilly and Carlos Silva being placed on the DL with a heart issue, the Cubs have called up a couple rookies, Casey Coleman and Thomas Diamond, to fill the void.  Mark's Remarks - Diamond, who replaced Lilly in the rotation, pitched pretty well tonight and will likely get some more starts.  Its possible that Zambrano will be called upon to take Silva's spot in the rotation.

Finally, after Monday's 18-1 shellacking at the hands of the Brewers, Gordon Wittenmyer suggested that its only going to get worse.  The Cubs offense continues to sputter and ,with the loss of two veteran starters, the pitching is likely to be worse.  Mark's Remarks - Yeah, well that's what rebuilding is all about.  Would you rather live through years of mediocrity or tear things up and rebuild with a chance to win again in a few years.  The Cubs have some young talent in the pipeline, but its going to take some time for them to develop.