Saturday, May 29, 2010

Will the real Carlos Silva please stand up!

I don't know who this guy is pitching for the Cubs, but its not Carlos Silva.  It just can't be.  It must be a doppelganger.

I mean, the doppelganger is 7-0 on the year.  The real Carlos Silva went 5-18 over the last two years.

The doppelganger has a 3.12 ERA.  The real Carlos Silva had a 6.81 ERA over the last two years and owns a career 4.64 ERA.

The doppelganger had 11 K's today against a pretty good hitting Cardinals team (just ask Randy Wells).  The real Carlos Silva has never struck out more than 8 in a game.

Whoever this doppelganger is, the Cubs may want to consider keeping an eye on him in case the real Carlos Silva decides to come back.  Until then, let's all enjoy the ride.

Friday, May 28, 2010

Did Randy Wells just pitch himself out of the rotation?

In case you missed it (and believe me, you should be glad if you did), Randy Wells was rocked by the Cardinals today, giving up 6 straight hits and 5 runs without recording an out.  He was then mercifully removed from the game.

Add to that the fact that Wells has pitched out of the bullpen before, is righthanded (and could act as a setup man) and Wells may have just moved his name up alongside Tom Gorzelanny as the leading candidates to be bumped from the rotation.

The truth is, despite all the speculation, we have no real idea what Lou Piniella is going to do.  Heck, he may decide to stream his starting pitchers (like many fantasy players do) and start the ones with the most favorable matchups each week.

In any case, things should become more clear next week.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Make up your minds people!

After hearing the outcry when Lou Piniella announced his decision to move Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen, its interesting to see now that at least 2 writers think moving him back to the rotation is not a good idea.

First off, we have Ken Rosenthal, of Foxsports, who asks "If your team already had five quality starting pitchers, why would you bump one from the rotation to make room for a guy with a 4.83 ERA in 242 innings since Aug. 9, 2008?"

Then today, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun Times summed up his thoughts on the subject by saying "Unless something unforeseen, such as an injury, happens between now and the end of the weekend, somebody who doesn't deserve to lose his starting job is going to be replaced in the rotation by a guy who hasn't done anything to merit the move or to suggest he'll make the team better by starting."

The truth is, Carlos Zambrano is not the same pitcher who the Cubs signed to the multi-year, multi-million dollar deal.  Gone are the days of him being considered the "Ace" of the Cubs staff.  As Wittenmyer points out in his article, "His ERA has risen every year, his victory totals and velocity have declined and by last season he was a nine-win pitcher whose inadequate conditioning helped pull the plug on playoff hopes that were on life support in August."

Unless he can turn it on again and rediscover the ace pitcher lurking inside him, he (and his contract) will become an albatross hanging around the Cubs neck.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Aramis Ramirez still looking up at Mendoza Line

We are now 45 games into the season and Aramis Ramirez has yet to get over the Mendoza Line.  He is hitting just .160 on the year with 40 K's in 156 AB's.

After an 0 for 5, 4 K performance on Saturday, Lou Piniella indicated that he may give Ramirez some time off during the Tuesday-Thursday series with the Dodgers. 

Part of the problem could be a bone bruise that Ramirez has been battling over the last two weeks.  An MRI and X-Rays revealed no fractures and Ramirez is not using it as an excuse, but it certainly cannot be helping matters.

The hope is that with 2-3 more days off, Ramirez will be healthy (physically AND mentally) for the weekend series with the Cardinals. 

I guess the silver lining in all of this is that, if Ramirez' hitting woes continue, he will be less inclined to opt out of his contract at the end of the year.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Who will be the odd man out?

In case you missed it, the Cubs are in the process of stretching out Carlos Zambrano in order to put him back in the rotation.  Which means that in about a week, they will have another decision on their hands: Who will be removed from the rotation?

Early speculation has it that Tom Gorzelanny will be the odd man out.  However, he has not done anything to warrant being removed from the rotation.  He leads Cubs starters with a 3.09 ERA and is second with 48 K's.

Everyone keeps waiting for Carlos Silva to revert bad to his old, bad ways, but he is a perfect 6-0, with a 3.52 ERA.  But, after a blistering start to the year (2-0 with a 1.73 ERA in April), Silva has come down to earth a bit in May with a 5.20 ERA (despite a 4-0 record) for the month.

Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells have been consistently good this year, posting ERA's of 3.73 and 3.99, respectively.  In fact, Ted Lilly has arguably been the worst starter of the Cubs current 5, posting a 4.30 ERA and a 1-4 record in his 6 starts.  However, given his track record with the Cubs and the fact that he's still building up his velocity after off-season shoulder surgery, the Cubs will give him the benefit of the doubt.

Compounding the issue is the fact that the Cubs' top pitching prospect, Andrew Cashner, has been tearing up the high minors with a 6-1 record and 2.13 ERA in 9 starts between AA and AAA.

Add it all up and the Cubs are in the enviable position of having 7 viable starters for 5 spots.  Sounds to me like the Cubs are in position to trade one of their starters for an area of need (such as, THE BULLPEN).

The Cubs could use Tom Gorzelanny's recent finger injury as an excuse to place him on the DL and buy themselves some more time, but a decision still has to be made at some point.

Chances are that Gorzelanny will be the odd man out and will be either traded or sent to the bullpen.   But, in my mind, unless they can trade Gorzelanny for a strong arm in the bullpen, he belongs in the rotation.

I would demote Carlos Silva.  Sure he is 6-0, but he is already showing signs that his luck is running out and it would be best to get him out of there before the wheels come off altogether.

Friday, May 21, 2010

Howry officially signs with Cubs

In a case of one team's trash is another team's treasure, the Cubs have signed Arizona castoff Bob Howry.  He will join the team in Texas tonight.

I'm not sure what Howry has left to offer (he's 36 and was being pummeled in Arizona), but for a league-minimum salary the Cubs were willing to give him a shot.

However, when a team that has a worse bullpen than yours releases a pitcher, it does not bode well.  The Diamondbacks have a bullpen ERA of 7.70 so far this year and Howry's 10.67 ERA certainly didn't help matters.

Perhaps Howry will be a calming influence and mentor to the Cubs young pitchers and be used mostly in mop-up duty, until he proves he can still get it done.  However, to me, it seems like Jim Hendry is once again just grasping at straws.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Cubs to sign Bob Howry?

A report by Paul Sullivan on Chicagobreakingsports.com says that righthander Bob Howry "will be in a Cubs uniform very soon". 

Howry was release by the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 17th, after posting a lousy 10.67 ERA in 14.1 IP with the team.  However, just last year he had a 3.39 ERA in 63.2 IP. 

Not sure what Howry has left to offer the Cubs, but with Zambrano moving back to the rotation and Esmailin Caridad going on the DL, the Cubs need another arm in the bullpen (if only to avoid using Justin Berg).

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Zambrano relief experiment coming to an end.

UPDATE:  Lou Piniella confirmed today that the goal is to return Zambrano to the rotation.  "We're going to stretch him out to get back in the rotation and we'll see when he's ready," Piniella said. Tom Gorzelanny could be the odd man out (or is a trade in the works?).

Yesterday, Lou Piniella announced that Carlos Zambrano will be moved from his setup role to long relief.  Asked if Zambrano would rejoin the rotation, Piniella said "Down the road, if need be."

If you read between the lines, it certainly looks like the Cubs are going to try to stretch out Zambrano in order to move him back to the rotation, basically admitting they made a mistake.  Zambrano has gone 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in his 8 appearances in the setup role.

Although he has said all the right things since the move was announced, you could just tell by watching him that his heart (or head) was not into it.

In any case, my guess is that the Cubs will try to find a way to get him back into the rotation by early-to-mid June.  Its possible that they want him back in the rotation so that they can showcase him for a potential trade.  However, with his hefty price tag and no-trade clause, trading him will not be easy.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Will Derrek Lee return next year?

In this week's Baseball Notes column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says of Derrek Lee "If the Cubs could move him, they would."  Lee, who has a no-trade clause, is making $13 million this year and is hitting only .238.  In addition, back in April the Cubs, when approached by Lee's agent Casey Close about a contract extension said "Let's see how this year plays out".

Add it up and it sounds like the Cubs are preparing to let Derrek Lee walk after his contract expires at the end of this year.  And I do not blame them. Lee, who turns 35 in September, is no spring chicken and the last thing this Cubs team needs is another bloated contract for an aging veteran.

If Lee doesn't come back, who will man first base for the Cubs in 2011.  Well there are several options:

Free agents

Lance Berkman, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, David Ortiz, Carlos Pena and even Albert Pujols could become free agents after 2010.  However, Berkman, Ortiz and Pujols all have team options for 2011.  Pujols' option is practically guaranteed to be picked up.  Berkman, who recently stated that he would be open to a trade, probably will have his option declined (if he's still with the Astros), however he is 34 and not really an upgrade over Lee.  Ortiz and Dunn are the youngest of the group at 32 and 30, respectively.  They are both lefthanded and offer 40 HR pop.  However, they both strikeout a lot.

Trade

The most prominent first baseman who could be on the market is the Padres Adrian Gonzalez.  If the Padres stay in contention this year, Gonzalez may not end up on the trading block in July, as was widely speculated.  If so, its likely that the Padres will still trade him in the offseason to maximize their return on a player that will be a free agent after the 2011 season.

Who would I target?

As I mentioned before, I think the Cubs should make every effort to acquire Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres. He is young (28), lefthanded and considering that he hit 28 HR's away from spacious Petco park last year, he could conceivably hit 50 HR's at Wrigley.

The drawback to trading for someone like Gonzalez is that it will likely cost the Cubs about 3-4 of their to prospects.  I wouldn't include Starlin Castro in any deal, but the Cubs other prospects are fair game.  Perhaps the Padres, who have had a general lack of production from their middle infielders this year, might be interested in one of the Cubs numerous other infield prospects, an outfielder and a pitcher or two.

If the Padres asking price is too high, then the Cubs should use Lee's money to pursue either Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena.

In any case, the Cubs should be able to get a little younger at first while adding the left handed power hitter they've been looking for since the end of 2008.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Can the Cubs turn it around?

So far this season has been a bit of a dissappointment for the Cubs.  With just over one fifth of the season in the books, the Cubs sit at 15-20 and 5 games back of the Cardinals in the Central.  Sure expectations were not high for this team, but after posting 3 straight winning seasons for the first time since Leo Durocher led the Cubs to 6 straight from 1967-1972, I'm sure fans were expecting better than 15-20.

So, what is wrong with the Cubs?  As I see it, the Cubs have 3 main issues:

Consistent Hitting

The Cubs are 4th in team batting average (.271) and 5th in OBP (.342) and are 7th in runs scored, however as a team they lack consistency.  This is a team that swept the Brewers in a late April 3 game series while scoring 25 runs and then a couple weeks later got swept by the lowly Pirates, who have the worst team ERA in the NL (5.80), while scoring only 5 runs. 

The root of the problem can be traced to the slow starts of Aramis Ramirez (.159/.227/.254) and Derrek Lee (.229/.338/.351).  These are two of the Cubs most consistent and productive hitters over the last several years and they have both started off this year in slumps.  Lee, it should be noted, started out slow last year (.189 in April) before bouncing back to have one of his best years as a Cub.  On the other hand, its been a while since Ramirez has gotten off to such a bad start (he hit .197 in April 2006).

Given their past histories, you've got to think that they will both snap out of their funks at some point and the offense will click on a consistent basis.  However, the longer the slumps go on, the more it gets into the head of the hitter and the more difficult it is to bounce back.

Defense

So far this year, the Cubs defense has been horrible.  They are second in the league for the most errors with 31 (the Marlins have 33) and they have given up the most unearned runs (25) than any other team in the NL.

This may have been part of the reason the Cubs called up Starlin Castro.  However, even though he has the better range and arm than Ryan Theriot, he has displayed some rookie jitters by committing 5 errors in his first 6 games. 

So, even though the Cubs should be better defensively with Castro at short and Theriot at second, it may take some time for Castro to settle in and for the defense to gell.

The Bullpen

The were many who had concerns about the Cubs bullpen, with so many youngsters manning key roles, and those concerns have been warranted.  The Cubs bullpen, especially the setup guys, was so bad, blowing 4 saves in the first 2 weeks, that it prompted Lou Piniella to make a "crazy" move and put Carlos Zambrano into a setup role.

Zambrano has done his part to help shore up things, posting a 3.52 ERA in 7.2 IP out of the pen, however the bullpen still has a 5.11 ERA overall. 

I'm sure that Jim Hendry is continuing his search for another bullpen arm.  However, at this point in the season, most teams are not looking to trade.  Its possible that some teams will trade some of their relievers by the trade deadline (Octavio Dotel of the Pirates comes to mind), but by then it may be too late for the Cubs.

The answer may lie within the organization in Jay Jackson, Casey Coleman or Andrew Cashner.  All 3 are off to good starts in the minors and could be called upon soon to help out.  In fact, it has been speculated that Cashner could be a future closer, due to his power fastball/slider combo (and lack of a 3rd pitch).

The Cubs certainly have the pieces to turn this season around, however so far all those pieces have not combined to form a consistent winner.  Once those pieces fall into place, the Cubs could go on a run.  The only question is, by that time will it be too late?

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Catching up with the Cubs

Hi everyone, taking a little break from kiddieland (aka my family) to get everyone caught up on the latest on the Cubs.

Overall

Since my last season update, the Cubs have lost 7 of 8 and now reside in 5th place in the division.  Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry, in full panic mode, have been trying everything they can think of to right the ship.  After moving Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen, the Cubs called up top prospect Starlin Castro, who proceeded to win a game and then help lose a game for the Cubs.

Tonight, Pineilla decided to shake things up some more by changing the lineup, moving Kosuke Fukudome to leadoff and moving Derrek Lee to cleanup.  However, the moves didn't pay off as the Cubs still lost 3-2.

Hitting

This year has been a strange one to say the least, as it seems that all of the Cubs hitters are hitting well except the two most reliable and productive hitters in Aramis Ramirez (hitting .159) and Derrek Lee (hitting .220).  The Cubs were 6th in the league in OBP with a .341 mark, but without Ramirez and Lee driving them in, the Cubs have struggled to score runs at times.

Although the Cubs are 6th in the league in runs scored, they have been inconsistent, scoring 14 runs one day and 1 or 2 the next.

Ramirez' lack of hitting has created a bit of controversy for the Cubs as apparently he rejected hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo's attempts to help, however Jaramillo was quick to downplay it, saying he need to "prove himself" to Ramirez.

Pitching

On the pitching side, the rotation has been pretty strong, for the most part.  Although, Carlos Silva has started showing some chinks in his armor lately, giving up 9 runs, including 4 HR's in his last two starts.

The bullpen has improved, but still has an overall 5.22 ERA, thanks in large part to a poor start to the season.  For his part, Carlos Zambrano has a 3.86 ERA in 7 IP as a reliever and even though he was assured that the move was only temporary, as long as Zambrano is successful in that role, I'm sure Piniella will be reluctant to move him out of that role.

I'm also sure that Jim Hendry hasn't given up his quest to find a righthanded setup man.  One rumor floating about is that the Cubs will use Tom Gorzelanny and either Jeff Baker or Mike Fontenot as trade bait to land a reliever.  This would allow the Cubs to move Zambrano back into the rotation.

Paul Sullivan of the Tribune suggests that the Cubs could call upon minor leaguers Jay Jackson and Casey Coleman to replace struggling Esmailin Caridad and Justin Berg.

Conclusion

The Cubs are a ship that is sinking fast and while Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella are bailing as best as they can, chances are they will go down with the ship.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Starlin Castro's coming out party

The Cubs were looking for an offensive spark and the got one tonight.  In his first big league game, Starlin Castro sparked the Cubs offense with a 3-run homerun in the 2nd and a 3-run triple in the 5th to lead the Cubs to a 14-7 victory over the Reds.  The 6 RBI's in his major league debut is a new major league record.

Not bad for his first day on the job.

Upon hearing the news of his call up, many reporters and bloggers were calling the move "an act of desperation" by the Cubs.  People were worried that it might hurt Castro's development or head him down the path of other Cubs prospects (Felix Pie anyone?).

Well, Castro looked ready for prime time tonight.  If today's performance is any indication, we will be seeing Castro in a Cubs uniform for a long time to come.

Cubs calling up Starlin Castro.

UPDATE:  The Chicago Tribune is confirming the story.

In a surprising move, Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes reports that the Cubs have called up top prospect Starlin Castro from AA Tennessee. 

The Cubs are obviously in need of an offensive spark, after getting swept by the pitching challenged Pittsburgh Pirates while only scoring 5 runs in the 3-game series.  Castro was tearing up AA ball, hitting .376/.421/.569 with 1 HR, 20 RBI's and 20 Runs in 109 AB's.

Castro will likely start at shortstop for the Cubs and push Ryan Theriot to second (with Mike Fontenot going to the bench). 

More on this tonight.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Its Official: Cubs got the better end of the Milton Bradley/Carlos Silva deal

Back when Jim Hendry traded Milton Bradley for an overpaid and overweight Carlos Silva, it was met with mixed reviews.  I went so far to say that Hendry got screwed.

Well, I will gladly eat crow on this one as this is looking like the best trade in Jim Hendry's history.

First off, Silva is outperforming Bradley on the field and its not even close.  Silva has posted a 2-0 record with a 2.90 ERA compared to Bradley's meagher .214/.313/.371 batting line.  Sure its early and a lot can happen over the course of a season, but I'll take it.

Second, Bradley is up to his old tricks.  He has already missed some time with a calf injury and then yesterday, after being pulled from a game in the 6th inning, he pulled a "Sammy Sosa" and left the clubhouse in the middle of the game.

Finally, the Mariners, who many analysts praised for their offseason moves (including acquiring Bradley) and predicted them to contend for the AL West title, is sitting at 11-15 on the year (the Cubs are only 13-14, but no one expected much of them).  Not all the blame for the poor record can fall on Bradley though, as there are many problems with that club, but his attitude certainly and hitting are certainly not helping matters.

So, kudos to Jim Hendry for finding someone to take Bradley off our hands and to get a rejuvinated pitcher in return.  It may not be the Cubs equivalent of Brock for Broglio, but it does help ease the sting of last season.

Monday, May 3, 2010

Cubs April Minor League Players of the Month

We are about one month into the minor league season.  Let take a look at the players who got off to the best starts at each level.

Class AAA - Iowa

Hitter

Brad Snyder - Although he's a little old (he'll be 28 on May 25th) as far as prospects go, Snyder is 2nd on the team in HR's, 1st in RBI and 3rd in Ave (.321).  After hitting 15 HR's in just 255 AB's last year, he is showing that his power is no fluke, slugging .580 so far this year.

Honorable mention - Bobby Scales - leads the team in OPS at 1.021, including a .457 OBP.

Pitcher

Thomas Diamond - In 5 starts, he is 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA, including 23 K's in 27.1 IP.  A former top Rangers prospect, he is trying to revitalize his prospect status.  If he can keep the walks down (11 so far), he could be someone to keep an eye on.

Honorable mention - Jay Jackson - Off to a good start with a 2.48 ERA and 20 K's in 29 IP.

Class AA - Tennessee

Hitter

Starlin Castro - He has had the most hype and along with it the most pressure to perform and so far he has, hitting .354 with an OPS of .954.  His 18 runs scored are tied for the team lead and his 20 RBI's are tied for 2nd.

Honorable mention - Robinson Chirinos - the catching prospect has 6 HR's to lead the team and is hitting .353.

Pitcher

Andrew Cashner - Another of the Cubs top prospects that is living up to his billing, Cashner is 2-1 with a 3.26 ERA and 34 K's in 30.1 IP.

Honorable mention - Hung-Wen Chen - is 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA in his 5 starts.

Class A+ - Daytona

Hitter

Brett Jackson - Leads the team with a .301 Ave., runs scored (13) and walks (18).  His .420 OBP also leads the team.

Honorable mention - Josh Vitters - Leads the team in HR's with 3, is tied with Jackson for the lead in runs (13) and is second in RBI's (13).

Pitcher

Rafael Dolis - has a sparkling 1.85 ERA in 5 games (4 starts).  Has given up only 14 hits in 24.1 IP and leads all starting pitchers with an 0.95 whip.

Honorable mention - Aaron Shafer - a relief pitcher, Shafer has yet to give up an earned run and has 19 K's in 18.2 IP.

Class A - Peoria

Hitter

Justin Bour - a 25th round pick in the 2009 draft, he leads the team with a .338 Ave and an OPS of .928.

Honorable mention - Greg Rohan - leads the team in HR's (3) and RBI's (18).

Pitcher

Jeffrey Beliveau - has an amazing 23 K's in just 11.1 IP (that's 18.3 K/9 IP, for those of you scoring at home) and a miniscule 1.59 ERA.

Honorable mention - Kenneth McNutt - a 32nd round pick in 2009, he has a 1.57 ERA (tops amongst starters) and has 24 K's in 23 IP.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Catching up with the Cubs

Wow, the month of April has already passed us by.  Where does the time go?

So, let's catch up on the latest news and notes on the Cubs.

Overall

The Cubs sit at 13-13 on the year, good for 2nd in the Central.  Unfortunately, they are already 4.5 games behind the division leading Cardinals, who show no signs of letting up.  The Cubs may want to set their sites on the Wildcard already, as they are only 2 games back of the leaders (the SF Giants) in that race.

Hitting

The Cubs hitting has been pretty good.  They are second in the league in batting average at .278 and 3rd in runs scored with 129 or nearly 5 runs per game.

Alfonso Soriano has been a pleasant surprise so far this year, hitting .325 with 6 HR's and 17 RBI's so far.  In the 4 game series against the Diamondbacks that just concluded today, Soriano went off on Arizona's pitching with a .467 ave (7 for 15), 4 HR's and 10 RBI's.

Another plus has been the hot start of Kosuke Fukudome, who has 5 HR's so far this year, after hitting 10 and 11 in his first two years with the Cubs. The key for him is to avoid the second half swoons that have sabotaged his first two seasons.

On the other end of the spectrum, Aramis Ramirez has struggled to find his stroke this season, hitting only .155.  Aramis Ramirez' struggles are discussed in Ray Flowers BABip analysis as well as my own article.

Derek Lee has also gotten off to a slow start, hitting only .221.  However, if everyone else continues to hit and Ramirez and Lee warm up, this Cubs offense could click like in 2008.

Pitching

After a disastrous start, mainly due to bullpen issues, the Cubs moved Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen and have gone 8-4 since, including 3-0 in games that Zambrano pitched.  I know its still early, but the Cubs have to be happy with the move so far, even if Zambrano is not.

The truth is that, in the first 13 games the Cubs bullpen blew 4 saves.  In the 13 games since the announcement, the Cubs have 0 blown saves.

Conclusion

The Cubs have started to heat up with the weather.  Their hitting has been good and the Zambrano move has helped strengthen a shaky bullpen.  It may be early, but this team is looking more and more like a playoff caliber team.  Now, if only they were in another division.