Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Should we be worried about Aramis Ramirez?

The hiring of hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo so far has had a positive affect on Alfonso Soriano (.295 ave) and Geovany Soto (.349), but the person you would think would be the least likely to struggle, Aramis Ramirez, is mired in a season-long slump.

The Cubs most consistent and clutch hitter the last several years is hitting only .145/.214/.303 on the year (through Monday's game).  Which makes one question whether we should be worried whether Ramirez skills (or shoulder) are deteriorating or if he will eventually snap out of his funk.

The answer is, not yet.

First of all, Ramirez is typically a slow starter.  His career .258 ave in April is by far the lowest of any month (the next lowest is May at .278).  In fact, back in 2006, Ramirez hit .197 in the month of April and went on to hit .291 for the year.

Second, Ramirez has been unlucky.  He has a career Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABip) of .289.  This year, it is only .157.  If we apply his normal BABip average to this year, he would have 20 hits and a .263 average.  Not up to his normal standards, but certainly more respectable than .145.

On the flip side though, his strikeouts are a bit of a concern.  For his career, Ramirez has only struck out in about 15% of his AB's.  This year, his strikeouts have doubled to 30%.  Perhaps he is pressing or he is tinkering too much with his swing, but something's not right.

Lou Piniella has already given Ramirez a couple days off to try to help him snap out of it.  Its unlikely that Piniella would be crazy enough to bench Ramirez for an extended period of time, but then again this is the guy who was crazy enough to move Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

The Zambrano Experiment: Game 1

Carlos Zambrano made his setup man debut last night and the results were mixed.  He came in with runners on first and third with 2 outs in the 7th and induced a weak grounder from Rickie Weeks to end the inning.

Sent back out for the 8th inning, things got a little more hairy as Zambrano gave up 2 hits, 1 walk and a run before retiring the side.

Not perfect, but definitely better than what we've seen from the setup men so far this season.  Also, we should remember that this is a Brewers team that just scored 36 runs in a 3 game series against the Pirates, including 20 in one game.

Zambrano was credited with a Hold and best of all the Cubs won the game, thanks largely to Ted Lilly's 6 shutout innings in his first game back from injury.

The Cubs have looked sharp in the first 2 games since the Zambrano announcement, beating the Brewers 7-1 and 5-1.  They go for the sweep today and are off to a good start, leading 5-0 after 2 innings.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Why Zambrano to the bullpen makes sense.

Now that we've had some time to calm down after yesterday's announcement that Carlos Zambrano will be moving to the bullpen, let's take a look at the move objectively and perhaps we can see the logic behind the move.

Oh, I've heard all the arguments against it:

200 innings of Zambrano is more valuable than 80 innings!

You don't pay a guy $18 million to be a setup reliever!

And of course, the general:  Piniella is crazy!  This is the stupidest move in Cubs history!  Or, as Phil Rogers says, "this is wrong on so many fronts!"

The fact is that the Cubs bullpen is in shambles and in particular the pitchers performing the 8th inning duties.  As Gordon Wittenmyer points out, the 8 Cubs pitchers who have pitched in the 8th inning for the Cubs have a combined 10.80 ERA.  Overall, the Cubs pen has blown 4 saves and are a combined 1-6 with a 6.14 ERA.

Something had to be done to shore up the bullpen and fast.  In fact, the Cubs got so desperate, that they even scouted former Brewer Braden Looper (you know, the guy who had a sparkling 5.22 ERA last year).

Since Jim Hendry has been unable to find a righthanded reliever on the trade market and missed out on the righthanded free agent relievers over the winter (how's that John Grabow signing looking now?), Piniella was forced to make a gutsy and unpopular move.

With Ted Lilly coming back this weekend, someone had to be moved to the bullpen.  A lot of people are saying that Carlos Silva or Tom Gorzelanny should have been moved to the pen as neither are as good a starter as Zambrano.  However, neither of them is as good an option as a reliever as Zambrano either.

Silva is a sinkerballer with a fastball in the 80's.  He's not the kind of guy that can come in and strike a guy out to get your team out of a jam.  Gorzelanny is also not an overpowering pitcher, plus the Cubs already have two capable lefties in the pen (well, maybe just one in James Russell, but that's another story).

What about Ryan Dempster, some might say.  Well, he IS the ace of this team so far and Piniella would truly be crazy to move him.  Randy Wells could have been an option, be he doesn't have the experience that Zambrano does.

That leaves you with Zambrano, who has struggled some this year as a starter, so maybe a move to the pen is just the thing to wake him up.

In any case, the Zambrano setup experiment could begin as early as tomorrow night and Cubs fans everywhere will be watching, if only to say "I told you so!"

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Lou Piniella must be reading my blog: Zambrano shifted to bullpen

Obviously, Lou Piniella must be reading my blog, because it has just been tweeted by Paul Sullivan that Carlos Zambrano is being moved to the bullpen on Friday.

This is a gutsy move on Piniella's part, but one that I think could work out well (at least until Carlos Silva or Tom Gorzelanny implode).  The Cubs have an obvious hole in the bullpen (righthanded setup man) and Zambrano has the power arm to fill that role. 

However, it remains to be seen if this experiment will work or how long it will last.

Ted Lilly to return this weekend. Who will be demoted?

UPDATEZAMBRANO TO THE PEN.

Ted Lilly was sharp in his last rehab start (albeit at class A Peoria) and is set to return to the Cubs for either a Saturday or Sunday start.

As to who he will replace in the rotation, Lou Piniella has been noncommital and indicated that any one of the 5 current starters could be demoted.  However, its likely that it will come down to either Carlos Silva or Tom Gorzelanny.

Both Silva (tonight) and Gorzelanny (Thursday) will make one more start to state their case for keeping their spots and both have been impressive so far this season.

The Case for Silva

Carlos Silva has been nothing short of dominant in his first two starts.  He has a miniscule ERA of 0.69 and has allowed just 9 baserunners (8 hits and 1 hbp) in his 13 IP.  A longshot for the rotation before the season, he has found new life with the Cubs and appears to have turned things around after a couple of disappointing years.

The only concern with Silva is that, despite being a sinkerball pitcher, he has only a 1.08 GO/FO ratio in his first two starts.  Homeruns have hurt Silva in the past (he gave up 38 HR's in 2006 with Minnesota) and Cubs fans know that with the wind blowing out at Wrigley a pop fly can turn into a HR in a hurry.  Still, he hasn't given up a homerun yet this year.

The Case for Gorzelanny

Tom Gorzelanny was impressive in his first start of the season, going 6.1 innings and allowing only one unearned run.  He was knocked out of his second start after 3 innings after taking a line drive off his pitching arm.  Despite that, he has posted a 1.93 ERA in his two starts.

As with Silva, Gorzelanny typically fares better when he keeps the ball on the ground and has a 2.17 GO/FO ratio so far this season.  However, he has a career mark of only 1.09, so its unlikely that he can sustain that.

The Case for the Others

Both Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells have pitched well so far this season, so its unlikely that either would be sent to the bullpen.  However, Dempster has closed in the past, so I guess its not totally out of the realm of possibility.

That leaves Carlos Zambrano as the only other possibility to be moved to the pen.  Zambrano has posted the worst stats of any starter so far this season, with a 7.45 ERA and a 1.86 whip.  As I mentioned before, I would like to see Zambrano moved to the pen, either as the setup man or the closer.

Zambrano has the makeup to be a closer and certainly has the stuff to do it.  Plus, most pitchers when the move to the pen add a few MPH to their fastballs, as they no longer have to pace themselves.

The potential downside to making such a move would be that Zambrano sees it as a demotion and sulks, leading to poor performance.

Prediction

Despite my preference for Zambrano moving to the pen, I am predicting that Gorzelanny will be the pitcher bumped from the rotation.  A lot depends on Silva and Gorzelanny's performances this week, but this would give the Cubs another lefthanded option for the pen.  John Grabow has been roughed up so far this season and James Russell will likely be demoted to AAA.

In any case, the Cubs are in the enviable position of having too much starting pitching.  Now if they could only get their bullpen straight.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Where are the Cubs top prospects playing?

Here's a quick look at where the Cubs Top 10 prospects (as ranked by Baseball America) will begin their seasons.

  1. Starlin Castro - Castro has been assigned to AA Tennessee, but the Cubs would have no problem promoting him directly to the majors, if he is needed.

  2. Brett Jackson - The Cubs centerfielder of the future is starting the season at High A Daytona and could be ready by the time Marlon Byrd's contract expires after the 2012 season.

  3. Josh Vitters - Vitters is starting where he left off last year at High A Daytona.  If he hits well there a mid-season promotion is not out of the question.

  4. Andrew Cashner - Cashner begins the year at AA Tennessee.  He will continue to work on developing his changeup.  If that doesn't work out, a career as a reliever could be in his future.

  5. Jay Jackson - Jackson starts the season one level above Cashner at AAA and could be the first starter called upon if the others fail.  However, its more likely that he'll be competing for a rotation spot in 2011.

  6. Hak-Ju Lee - Lee has been assigned to low A Peoria.  With highly touted Starlin Castro ahead of him, a position change or trade could be in the future.

  7. Logan Watkins - Watkins joins his 2009 double-play mate Hak-Ju Lee at Peoria and will likely continue to move up along with Lee.

  8. Chris Carpenter - Carpenter begins the season at AA Tennessee.  He is third on the minor league starting pitcher depth chart, but has still been impressive in his early career.

  9. Ryan Flaherty - Second baseman Flaherty will see if he can continue to show off his power (20 homeruns in 2009) at AA Tennessee.

  10. D.J. LeMahieu - LeMahieu will join Vitters and fellow shortstop prospect Junior Lake (ranked #29 by Baseball America) at High A Daytona.


As you can see, the Cubs have been promoting their infield prospects in tandem, with Ryan Flaherty (2b) and Starlin Castro (ss) at AA; D.J. LaMahieu (2b) and Junior Lake (ss) at Daytona; and Logan Watkins (2b) and Hak-Ju Lee (ss) at Peoria.

It will be interesting to see how things play out over the next few years with all these infield prospects.

    Thursday, April 15, 2010

    Catching up with the Cubs

    Hey everyone, sorry for the lack of posts lately, but I had a recent addition to my family and we're still going through the adjustment period.

    So, let's get caught up on what's been happening with the Cubs over the last week.

    Overall

    After starting off the season 2-4 on the road, the Cubs headed home to the friendly confines this week and have gone 2-1 at home to improve their record to 4-5.  They currently reside in a three-way tie for third, 2 games behind the Cardinals and 1 behind the Reds.

    Hitting

    The Cubs offense has sputtered out of the gate, hitting a meager .247 so far with only 40 runs scored (11th in the NL).  Mike Fontenot leads the way, amongst the regulars, with a .350 average, followed by Derrek Lee at .346.

    The biggest story so far has been Alfonso Soriano's struggles both offensively and defensivelyMark's Remarks - Soriano has hit only .214 and has already committed 2 errors so far this season.  With Tyler Colvin breathing down his neck, he could be in danger of losing playing time if he doesn't improve.

    Pitching

    On the pitching side, the Cubs have a team ERA of 5.14, 12th in the NL.  The starting pitching has been OK, with a combined 4.47 ERA.  However, much of that poor ERA can be attributed to Carlos Zambrano and his 9.45 ERA over 3 starts.  The foursome of Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva have combined for a sparkling 2.73 ERA in their 6 starts.

    The good news is that Cubs' lefty Ted Lilly was stellar in his recent rehab start for Iowa.  The bad news is that he will likely replace either Silva or Gorzelanny, who have both pitched well, instead of Zambrano.

    The bullpen has been nothing short of a disaster, sporting a 6.41 ERA and 3 blown saves.  To add injury to insult, the Cubs righthanded setup man, Esmailin Caridad, was placed on the DL with a forearm strain.

    There have been a couple bright spots in the bullpen, as Sean Marshall has been outstanding, with a 1.50 ERA and 9 K's in 6 IP, and Carlos Marmol has converted all 3 of his save chances and has not given up a run while striking out 9 in 4.1 IP.

    Mark's Remarks - Although its highly unlikely that it will ever happen, I would move Zambrano to the bullpen when Lilly returns.  His "intensity" on the mound strikes me as what many people refer to as the "closer mentality" and it wouldn't be the first time the Cubs have used a former "ace" as a closer (see Wood, Kerry).  However, its more likely that the Cubs will trade for a reliever or perhaps call up Andrew Cashner, who has been lights out in AA.

    Overall, not the best start to the season, but its still early.  If the Cubs can find a solution to their bullpen issues, they could turn an average team into a contender.  However, if the bullpen issues continue, its going to be a long season.

    Friday, April 9, 2010

    Ok Mr. Hendry, you can acquire that reliever now.

    After finishing 11th in the NL last year in blown saves with 18, the Cubs already have two blown saves this year, with the latest coming at the hands of Esmailin Caridad.

    Caridad, who must have been battling a case of Marmol-itis, walked the first two hitters before allowing an infield single followed by a grand slam that turned a 3-1 lead into a 5-3 deficit.  Derrek Lee hit a homerun in the 9th to make it close, but the Cubs could not push across another run.

    The slam cost Carlos Silva his first win since April 25, 2009.  Silva, who deserved a better fate, pitched 6 innings and allowed only 1 run on 3 hits.

    After scouring the free agent market (Matt Capps, Kiko Calero) and looking into trade possibilities (Heath Bell), Jim Hendry has yet to land a righthanded setup pitcher.  He may have to step up his efforts and fast before the Cubs dig themselves too big a hole.

    Wednesday, April 7, 2010

    Well, at least it was close this time

    After getting pummeled in the opener on Monday, the Cubs lost their second straight game to the Braves 3-2 on Wednesday.

    This time we can't blame the starting pitching as Ryan Dempster was sharp today, going 6 innings while allowing only one run.

    However,  we can blame the bullpen--I'm looking at you John Grabow.  The Cubs $3.75 million reliever gave up 2 runs in the 8th to turn a 2-1 lead into a loss.  The big blow being a two run homerun by Chipper Jones.

    Not that the offense should get a free pass either.  The Cubs were 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position and hit into 3 double plays, killing many potential run scoring innings before they got going.

    The Cubs will try to salvage the last game of their 3 game series with the Braves tomorrow as Randy Wells squares off against Tommy Hanson at 6:00pm (CST).

    Monday, April 5, 2010

    Braves Blast Zambrano and Cubs

    What was suppose to be a strength of this Cubs team turned into a weakness as the Cubs pitching got shellacked by the Braves today, losing 16-5.  Carlos Zambrano lasted just 1.1 innings and gave up 8 runs.   He gave up 2 homeruns, including young phenom Jason Heyward's first career homerun in his first career AB.

    Jeff Samardzija gave up 6 runs (4 earned) in just 0.1 IP and Justin Berg gave up 2 runs in his 1 inning, perhaps sending a message to Jim Hendry that the Cubs need another righthander in the bullpen (preferably someone with some experience).

    The bright spot for the Cubs pitching was the 2.2 perfect innings thrown by Sean Marshall, who struck out 5 batters.  Perhaps he was still trying to make his case for the rotation (maybe he could take Zambrano's spot).  In any case, there wasn't much to celebrate on the pitching side.

    As for the hitters, Marlon Byrd got the Cubs going early, hitting a 3-run homerun in the first and Aramis Ramirez hit a two-run shot in the 3rd, but even against a shaky Derek Lowe (5 runs in 6 IP), the Cubs couldn't keep it close.

    The same teams will square up again on Wednesday with Ryan Dempster going against Jair Jurrjens.  Dempster pitched very well during spring training (2.13 ERA in 25.1 IP) and looks to carry that momentum into the season.

    Thursday, April 1, 2010

    Although they still have a few games left to play, let's take a look back at the Cubs 2010 Spring Training.

    New Attitude

    Despite Milton Bradley's continued efforts to put down the Cubs and the City of Chicago, the Cubs have had a relatively quiet spring and good team chemistry.

    Gone are the expectations from last year of winning the World Series and the pressure to go along with it and it showed in the Cubs play.  Through today's game, the Cubs have a 17-11 record, tops amongst the NL Central teams.  As a team, they ranked 5th in ERA at 4.37 and 7th in runs scored.

    Good News

    Cubs starters Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano appear healthy and pain free.

    Despite being sent to the minors, Cubs shortstop prospect Starlin Castro had an excellent spring and should not be too far off.

    Despite shoulder surgery and experiencing knee pain early in the spring, Ted Lilly is on track to return April 19th.

    Bad News

    It was discovered that Angel Guzman has a significant ligament tear in his shoulder and will miss the entire 2010 season.

    The Cubs have explored various free agent and trade options, but have failed to come up with an experienced setup man and therefore are relying on rookie Esmailin Caridad to fill Guzman's role.

    Position Battle Winners (and Losers)


    Mike Fontenot beat out Jeff Baker for the second base job.  However, a platoon could develop with Baker starting against lefties.

    Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny won the last two starting rotation spots.  However, they will be competing against each other over their first 3 starts as to who gets to keep their spot when Ted Lilly returns.  Sean Marshall and Jeff Samarzija will start the season in the bullpen.

    Tyler Colvin beat out Sam Fuld for the 5th outfielder spot.

    Cursebuster Kevin Millar was released by the Cubs giving the final bench spot to Chad Tracy (how is his curse busting?).

    Conclusion

    As I said before, it was a quiet spring.  The Cubs played well and could actually surprise some people this year.  A lot will depend on how the offense bounces back from last season's ineptitude.  But the starting pitching remains strong and the addition of a reliever (or two) could put the Cubs back in the playoffs.