Recently the other NL Central correspondents and I got together to make our picks for the division standings, award winners and all-stars.  Below are the results and my thoughts on each.

First off, here are the predicted standings:

	Adam (Brewers)	Scott (Astros)	Ryan (Cardinals)	Mark (Cubs)	Scott (Pirates)	Mike (Reds)
1st	Cubs	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cubs	Cardinals
2nd	Cardinals	Brewers	Brewers	Cubs	Cardinals	Reds
3rd	Brewers	Reds	Reds	Brewers	Reds	Brewers
4th	Reds	Cubs	Cubs	Reds	Brewers	Cubs
5th	Pirates	Astros	Astros	Astros	Pirates	Astros
6th	Astros	Pirates	Pirates	Pirates	Astros	Pirates

As you can see, 4 out of the 6 correspondents picked the Cardinals to win the division.  No real surprise there.  The surprise is that two picked the Cubs to win the division.  After last years' dismal showing, very few people are predicting the Cubs to contend this year (myself included).  But as baseball continues to show us, the best team on paper doesn't always win.

This next section is the awards for the division, including the MVPNP (Most Valuable Player Not Pujols).

	Adam (Brewers)	Scott (Astros)	Ryan (Cardinals)	Mark (Cubs)	Scott (Pirates)	Mike (Reds)
MVPNP	Ryan Braun	Ryan Braun	Ryan Braun	Ryan Braun	Ryan Braun	Ryan Braun
Cy Young	Carlos Zambrano	Chris Carpenter	Chris Carpenter	Adam Wainwright	Adam Wainwright	Roy Oswalt
ROY	Alcides Escobar	Alcides Escobar	Alcides Escobar	Starlin Castro	Alcides Escobar	Alcides Escobar
Newcomer	Randy Wolf	Brad Penny	Xavier Nady	Randy Wolf	Carlos Gomez	Xavier Nady

Ryan Braun was an unanimous choice for MVPNP and deservedly so.  Its also no surprise that the Cardinals pitching tandem of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright got 4 out of the 6 votes for Cy Young.  What is surprising is that Carlos Zambrano received a vote for Cy Young.  I'm sure Cubs fans would be happy if he pitched well enough to be considered for any kind of award, as it would probably mean the Cubs are in contention.

ROY went to Alcides Escobar and he certainly is the favorite.  I went out on a limb in picking Starlin Castro, as I figured that rarely does the favorite win this award and I just like Castro's upside.

The newcomer of the year was split between Randy Wolf and Xavier Nady, with 2 votes apiece.  I think Wolf will have a good year in Houston, as he should have a pretty good offense behind him in Milwaukee.  Nady is also a good choice and was second on my list.  However, he first must overcome his injury and Kosuke Fukudome to have an impact.

	Adam (Brewers)	Scott (Astros)	Ryan (Cardinals)	Mark (Cubs)	Scott (Pirates)	Mike (Reds)
C	Geovany Soto	Geovany Soto	Yadier Molina	Yadier Molina	Yadier Molina	Geovany Soto
1B	Albert Pujols	Albert Pujols	Albert Pujols	Albert Pujols	Albert Pujols	Albert Pujols
2B	Rickie Weeks	Brandon Phillips	Brandon Phillips	Brandon Phillips	Brandon Phillips	Brandon Phillips
3B	Aramis Ramirez	Scott Rolen	Aramis Ramirez	Aramis Ramirez	Aramis Ramirez	Scott Rolen
SS	Alcides Escobar	Alcides Escobar	Alcides Escobar	Alcides Escobar	Alcides Escobar	Alcides Escobar
LF	Ryan Braun	Ryan Braun	Ryan Braun	Ryan Braun	Ryan Braun	Ryan Braun
CF	Andrew McCutchen	Andrew McCutchen	Andrew McCutchen	Andrew McCutchen	Andrew McCutchen	Drew Stubbs
RF	Hunter Pence	Ryan Ludwick	Jay Bruce	Hunter Pence	Jay Bruce	Jay Bruce

As for the All Stars, Geovany Soto and Yadier Molina split the votes for catcher, which is somewhat surprising considering that Molina is the best defensive catcher in the division and have been pretty consistent offensively.  Soto, on the other hand, has to prove that 2008 was not a fluke

Albert Pujols, Brandon Phillips, Alcides Escobar and Aramis Ramirez were the majority vote getters for the infield All-Stars, with Scott Rolen at third and Rickie Weeks at second also getting votes.  I think Ramirez is the best third baseman in the division, but if he gets hurt again, Rolen can certainly overtake him.  Weeks can certainly put up numbers similar to Phillips, but it remains to be seen if he can put it all together and stay healthy for a full season.

In the outfield, Ryan Braun was the unanimous choice in left (no surprise as he was also the MVPNP).  Andrew McCutchen received 5 out of 6 votes for center and if last year is a good indication of his abilities, he is a star in the making.

Right field was a little more cloudy for all of us as Jay Bruce led the way with 3 votes, followed by my pick of Hunter Pence with 2 and Ryan Ludwick with 1.  Bruce probably has the most upside of the 3, but he has struggled to hit for average.  Pence has put up some decent numbers the last few years, but he doesn't have the power of Bruce.  Ludwick came back to earth a bit after his breakout season in 2008, but he could be in line for another uptick with a better supporting cast this year (i.e. Matt Holliday).

Overall, not many surprises.  Please check out the other team blogs for their takes on the picks.

Could the Cubs pursue Adrian Gonzalez?

I came across a post from the Friarhood, speculating on where Adrian Gonzalez might wind up, should the Padres trade him.  It sounds as if Padres fans are pretty much resigned to the fact that Gonzalez will be traded, "its just a matter of time."

Which brings us to the Cubs and their first base situation.  Derrek Lee is a free agent after this season.  Adrian Gonzalez is signed through 2011, so it appears to be a potential match, if the Padres don't trade him this year.

The Friarhood lists the following Cubs prospects as potential targets:  Starlin Castro, Brett Jackson, Josh Vitters, Andrew Cashner, Jay Jackson, Hak-Ju Lee, Logan Watkins and Chris Carpenter, basically 8 of the Cubs top 10 prospects.

First, let's talk about Gonzalez.  He is one of the best first basemen in the league and has increased his homerun totals each year, despite playing in one of the worst hitting parks in the majors.  Can you imagine what kind of HR totals he could have at Wrigley?

In addition, he is one of the better defensive first basemen in the league, per Fangraphs, his UZR rating of 3.8 is almost identical to that of Derrek Lee (3.7).  Add to that he is 7 years younger than Lee and has more power and you would have to consider him an upgrade at first.

The problem then becomes Gonzalez's contract.  If the Cubs are going to give up some of their best prospects for the guy, they will probably want to make signing him to an extension part of the deal.  With Derrek Lee's contract of $13 million coming off the books, the Cubs would have some money to work with (Gonzalez's option for 2011 is worth $5.5 million).

It would probably take a 6-7 year contract worth about $15-16 million per year to sign him, but it would be worth it (or at least it is money better spent than the Soriano, Fukudome and Bradley contracts), as the Cubs would be getting the lefthanded bat they so desperately need.

I don't think the Cubs should give up Starlin Castro to acquire Gonzalez, but I would be willing to trade 3 or 4 of those other guys to land him.  There won't be any better free agent first basemen available after this year, so if it takes giving up some prospects to get one of the best in the business, I say do it.

Cubs place 5 prospects in Baseball America's Top 100

Baseball America released its annual Top 100 prospect list today and the Cubs had 5 of their prospects in the mix, tied with the Indians for second behind the Rays (7).

The Cubs 5 were as follows:

1. Starlin Castro #16


2. Josh Vitters #70


3. Brett Jackson #74


4. Andrew Cashner #95


5. Jay Jackson #98

Not a very top heavy group, but a good showing nonetheless and it shows improvement from last year's Top 100, when the Cubs only had two prospects make the list (Vitters (51) and Jeff Samardzija (79)).

After a steady decline from ranking as the 10th best minor league system in 2005 (by Baseball America) then dropping all the way to 27th last year, the Cubs farm system bounced back to rank 15th in 2010, thanks to some solid drafts the last few years.

The key is for the Cubs to start using their minor leaguers to plug holes in their lineup instead of always overpaying for the over-the-hill veteran.  They've got some good pieces that can help them down the road, but its uncertain if there will be any room for some of them with the overpaid veterans in their way.

In any case, its good to see the Cubs building up their farm system.

Fantasy Profile: Ted Lilly

As part of a new regular feature here at Cubspack, I am going to provide you with some analysis of some key players on the Cubs from both a fantasy and team perspective.  Starting off today with pitcher Ted Lilly.

Recently, Fanball.com (you know, the guys that I work for) posted a Fantasy 50 segment on Ted Lilly where Kyle Elfrink gives his take on what to expect from Lilly for 2010.

You can check out the segment below.

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Kyle points out that, with Lilly coming off shoulder surgery and recently experiencing knee pain, you cannot count on him to provide his usual 30+ starts this year.  In fact, before the knee issue, Lilly was not expected back until late April or early May.

Although the MRI on his knee results came back clean, this still represents a setback for Lilly.  The knee problems he had last year may have led to his shoulder problems, as he tried to overcompensate for the knee issues.  So, one can expect the Cubs to be extra careful this time around and I would say we're looking more at a mid to late May return.

What does that mean to fantasy owners?  Well, if you are playing to win in 2010, you should avoid Lilly, as any investment in him is high risk.  However, if you are in a keeper league and are rebuilding or have a weak keeper list, Lilly could be the kind of low investment, high risk/high reward type of player that could help you contend.

Chances are he will go for around $8-10 in most auctions and could turn in a tidy profit, if he returns in May and provides 20-25 starts.  However, if he has more setbacks, you could potentially be out the $8-10 and out of contention.

If he is able to return by mid-May, I expect him to pitch around 150 innings and provide about 8 wins, an ERA around 4.00 and a whip of about 1.30.  Again, pretty good for an $8-10 investment, but I wouldn't build my staff around him.

Its Spring Training, time to bring out the Fluff!

Its an annual right of Spring Training, the "Fluff Piece".  An article which really provides little or no insight, but is more of a feel good piece to give us all hope for the new season.

So, it should come as no surprise that even Cubs writers are not immune to this affliction.  Case in point, the Sun Times Gordon Wittenmyer gives us this "insight" into Carlos Zambrano "Zambrano trims pounds--and his hair--but needs to cut self-destructive tendencies."  Mark's Remarks - Apparently Zambrano has turned over a new leaf.  He's lost weight and is committed to regaining his former dominant stuff.  Me, I'll believe it when I see it.

Next Chris De Luca reports that Seattle is excited about Milton Bradley.  Mark's Remarks - Good, because there are a number of Cubs fans and players who are excited that he's gone.

Gordon Wittenmyer, apparently not content with his fluff on Zambrano, decided to write one on the whole team, stating that the Cubs are hungry after missing the playoffs last year.  Mark's Remarks - I thought that it was just Zambrano who is hungry.

Not to be outdone, Chris De Luca had another gem, telling everyone who will listen that the "ring's the thing that would set everything right after season of injuries, Bradley."  Mark's Remarks - Sure, winning a championship cures all ills.  Unfortunately the Cubs have been trying to do that for over 101 years.

Just in case you thought that the Sun Times was the only paper to deliver such fluff, the Tribune is not above the fluff stuff either giving us these gems.

Paul Sullivan reports that "Optimism abounds on Chicago Cubs", stating that the "club enters spring training with high hopes but lowered expectations."  Mark's Remarks - Its good that they are lowering their expectations, because I don't think anyone is picking them to go very far this year.

Sullivan also chimes in with a report that "Camp Ho-Hum would be fine with Cubs."  Mark's Remarks - Now that Bradley is gone, that should be fairly easy to achieve.

However, it was not all fluff during the first 5 days of Spring Training.  There was some actual news to report.  Unfortunately, it was bad news.

First, Cubs reliever Angel Guzman had arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a torn miniscus.  Mark's Remarks - This makes the Cubs search for another reliever that much more important.  The Cubs are still looking at Chan Ho Park, but have competition from the Rays and Yankees.

Then, as if to pile on, Ted Lilly complained of soreness in his knee, which could possibly hinder his shoulder rehab.  Thankfully, an MRI exam showed no serious injury.  Mark's Remarks - The Cubs better hope that their minor league pitching prospects are ready soon, because their pitching depth is dwindling rapidly.

About the only good news to come out of camp is that the Cubs won their arbitration hearing with Ryan Theriot.  Mark's Remarks - Great the Cubs saved themselves $800,000.  Now use that money to find more pitching!

For those of you, like me, who live and breathe baseball and have long since given up on the Bears, Bulls and the NHL in general, today marks the official start of Spring as pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.

Spring training, like its NFL and NBA equivalents, is probably overblown and unecessary and most sports stars have offseason workout regimens and do not need a spring training to get in shape.  Even the Spring Training games could probably be reduced or eliminated altogether.

However, it is great for the fans, who get a chance to check out the latest hot prospect or see the competitions for starting jobs.  It is a time for questions to be answered, lineups and rotations to be determined and to get a feel for just how good (or bad) your team is.

With that said, here are some questions that need to be answered this spring for the Cubs:

1. Who will start at second base? Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot are the main contenders, but if the Cubs deem hot prospect Starlin Castro ready, he could start at short with Theriot moving to second.


2. Who will start in right field? Kosuke Fukudome is the incumbent, but he lacks the power normally associated with a corner outfielder and could be overtaken by newcomer Xavier Nady.


3. Who will be the Cubs 5th starter? The contenders are Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija and Carlos Silva.  No one has a clear edge in this battle.


4. When will Ted Lilly be ready? Lilly is targeting opening day, but it remains to be seen if he will be ready by then.


5. Who will fill out the Cubs bullpen? Carlos Marmol, Angel Guzman and John Grabow are pretty much a given.  But after those three, there are an abundance of options available, including Mitch Atkins, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Rafael Dolis, John Gaub, Jeff Gray, Marcus Mateo, Mike Parisi, Blake Parker, David Patton, Jeff Stevens and free agents Chan Ho Park and Kiko Calero.


6. Who will leadoff? The current candidates are Kosuke Fukudome and Ryan Theriot.  Neither is your prototypical leadoff man, but for lack of better options (and Alfonso Soriano is NOT an option), one of them will have to lead off.

I will attempt to answer these and other questions over the next several weeks until opening day on April 4th.  Stay tuned.

Team Poll: Chicago Cubs

Yesterday, some of my cohorts here at Fanball.com posted a Team Poll on the Chicago Cubs.

Here are their consensus picks:

Division finish: 2nd
Mixed league sleeper (non-rookie): Xavier Nady
NL-only sleeper: No consensus (three votes each for Angel Guzman and Jeff Baker)
Bust: Derrek Lee
Top rookie: Esmailin Caridad
HR leader: Aramis Ramirez
No. 5 starter: Tom Gorzelanny
Lee HRs- over/under 25: Under
More likely to bounce back- Soriano or Soto: Geovany Soto
Castro takes a MLB at-bat in '10- yes or no: Yes

Overall there are some interesting choices.  Here are my thoughts on each:

Division Finish - I agree with the consensus here that the Cubs will finish 2nd in the division.  The Cardinals have a strong team and will be difficult to beat.  The Cubs may have to worry more about another team overtaking them for 2nd, such as the Brewers or the Reds, than catching the Cardinals.

Mixed League Sleeper - Again, I have to go with the consensus here.  Xavier Nady, if healthy, has the ability to steal the rightfield job away from Kosuke Fukudome.  It would not surprise me at all if Nady is the starting rightfielder by May.

NL Only Sleeper - Here's where things get a little fuzzy.  The votes are split between Angel Guzman and Jeff Baker.  The thinking is that Guzman could take over as closer if (or when) Carlos Marmol falters and that Baker will become the everyday second baseman.  However, in NL Only fantasy leagues, I think that most owners would probably assume that Baker gets the starting job, based on 2009 performance.  I would probably go with Jeff Samardzija.  I could see him winning the 5th starter job.

Bust - The consensus pick was Derrek Lee and if fantasy owners expect Lee to put up the same numbers that he had in 2009, they will probably be disappointed.  Another player to watch closely though is Carlos Marmol.  If his control problems from 2009 continue into 2010, his stint as closer for the Cubs could be very short-lived.

Top Rookie - Here the consensus is that Esmailin Caridad will be the top rookie, however I think that Starlin Castro might surprise everyone and take over the second base job as early as May.  Caridad is a fine pitcher and should fill a middle reliever role, but that won't help your fantasy team much.  If you're looking for someone who might make a big impact, take a chance on Castro.

HR Leader - Aramis Ramirez was the consensus pick and its hard to argue with that.  Derrek Lee led the team last year, but his homeruns were down in 2007-2008 and its likely that 2009 was one last power surge before he fades into the sunset.

5th Starter - Tom Gorzelanny was picked over Sean Marshall (7-3), but I think that you have to keep an eye on Jeff Samardzija.  If he has a good spring, Lou Piniella could hand the job to him.  He has the best stuff of all of the candidates, but just needs to control it better.

Lee HR's - Over/Under 25 - The consensus is that Lee will come back to earth in 2010 and hit less than 25 homeruns.  I agree as I would put him around 20 for the season.

More likely to bounceback - Soriano or Soto - The consensus is that Soto is more likely to bounceback.  The thinking is probably that Soto is younger and has gotten into shape over the offseason, so he will probably bounce back.  However, if you look at his minor league history, there was no indication of much power with him hitting a high of only 9 HR's before his "breakout" season of 2007 when he hit 26 HR's at Iowa.  Makes one a little suspicious and makes his 11 HR's in 2009 seem more of what to expect.  But, even with that said, I still think Soto is more likely to bounce back, if only because he is younger and Soriano's best days are behind him.

Castro takes an MLB AB in 2010 - Here the consensus is "Yes" Starlin Castro will take an AB in 2010.  I'll even take that a step further and say that Castro will have significant AB's in 2010 (between 350-400).

Just some more food for thought as you get ready for the fantasy season.

3 Key Players for 2010

With pitchers and catchers scheduled to report to Mesa next week, its time to start thinking about the Cubs' 2010 season.

Leading off is my take on who the 3 most important players are for the Cubs to be successful this year.

1. Carlos Zambrano - After putting up some spectacular numbers between 2004-2006 and becoming the Cubs ace, Zambrano's numbers have fallen off and he spent 2009 battling hamstring and back injuries.  Heading into 2010, he has reportedly shed some weight and supposedly is more focused.  With Ted Lilly coming off surgery, the Cubs need Zambrano to reassert himself as the team Ace and give the Cubs 17-20 wins.


2. Alfonso Soriano - Soriano struggled with knee issues and his hitting throughout 2009 and finally ended up getting offseason surgery to fix his knee.  He has never been a consistent hitter and he'll never sniff the .300 mark over an entire season, but he is capable of carrying the team's offense for long stretches and can be the sparkplug that the Cubs need.


3. Aramis Ramirez - after separating his shoulder last year and missing 58 days, the Cubs are hoping that Ramirez will stay healthy this year.  Ramirez is probably the most consistent hitter on the Cubs roster and arguably the best hitter on the team.  He is the best RBI man on the Cubs and without him the offense sputters.  Keeping Ramirez healthy is the biggest key to the 2010 season.

It should come as no surprise that 2 of the 3 key players are hitters, as the Cubs offense was woeful in 2009.  For the Cubs to have success in 2010, the offense must bounce back.

Hendry optimistic about Cubs. Should we be?

In an article by Paul Sullivan of the Tribune, Jim Hendry expressed optimism about the Cubs chances to improve this year.

"It's not like we had a lot of room for new bodies," Hendry said. "We just needed to get a couple of pieces, and we really think Byrd and Nady are going to help us in a lot of areas, especially offensively. And I'm optimistic some of the people that didn't hit last year will. Rudy is going to help us. … I think we're quite a bit better."

Hendry obviously thinks the Cubs can contend this year.  Should we be so optimistic?

Well, the Cubs have traded away the biggest headache from last year and replaced him with Marlon Byrd.  While he may not be an upgrade offensively, Byrd should at least fit in better and improve the overall chemistry of the team.

I was impressed by the addition of Xavier Nady.  If healthy, he gives the Cubs another option in rightfield.  He is a good hitter and plays much better defense than last year's offensive spark, Jake Fox.

Speaking of Fox, he was traded along with Aaron Miles for reliever Jeff Gray.  Not a glamorous addition, but it helps shore up a bullpen that was a bit shaky last year.

Overall, I think the Cubs should be somewhat optimistic about their chances this year.  Are the "quite a bit better" as Hendry claims.  Probably not.  But I think they have improved in certain key areas, primarily their bullpen and team chemistry.

If Jaramillo can get the offense turned around, there's no reason they cannot contend for the division title.  However, if their offense is down around the middle of the pack, the best they can hope for is a wildcard berth.

Continuing the NL Central bloggers series of Q&A's, tonight we take a look at the Brewers.  Brewers correspondent Adam Burnett of Baseballbrew.com answered my questions on the Brewers and what to expect for 2010.  You can check out my answers to his questions on the Cubs HERE. 

1.  Does former Cub Jim Edmonds have enough left in the tank to contribute to the Brewers?  Do you see him taking starts away from Carlos Gomez?

Edmonds has a chance to make the team as a 5th outfielder out of spring training.  Jody Gerut is locked in as the 4th outfielder, so Edmonds will have to beat out a cast of characters for one of the final roster spots.  Gomez has a long way to go as a player and could lose some playing time if he struggles early.  However, I don't forsee Edmonds becoming the everyday centerfielder.

2.  Former Cubs farmhand Casey McGehee came out of nowhere to take over the third base job (beating out Bill Hall and top prospect Mat Gamel in the process).  Is he for real or was this just a flash in the pan?  Is Mat Gamel still considered an option at third or does his defense make him trade bait for the AL?

I think the job at the hot corner is Casey McGehee's to lose this spring.  The knee problems are a concern as are the minor league track record.  McGehee made the most of his opportunity in 2009 and earned the right to enter spring training as the starting third baseman.

Gamel got completely hosed with the call-up last season.  I think that put him further behind as a player.  I don't think he got regular playing time, because he's just not ready defensively.  A lot of fans wanted him moved to the outfield so the team could trade Corey Hart for a starting pitcher.  Gamel should go down to Triple-A Nashville and play everyday. 

3.  Starting pitching was a weak spot for the Brewers in 2009, with 2 starters posting ERA's over 5 and 2 others posting ERA's over 6.  Other than Yovanni Gallardo and Randy Wolf, who will complete the Brewers rotation?

Doug Davis is guaranteed a spot in the rotation, then you have three guys fighting for the final two spots.  Manny Parra, Dave Bush, and Jeff Suppan each had awful seasons in 2009.  The pitching guru Rick Peterson was hired to help the staff.  I not sure you can polish a turd.  Parra is really talented but the train comes off the tracks with runners on base.  Dave Bush is a 5th starter that keeps you in most of his games, but gives up way too many gopher balls.  Jeff Suppan's salary may put him in the rotation.  He doesn't have much to work with and is the worst signing in franchise history.  Suppan could pitch a little better maybe if he stays healthy.  General Manager Doug Melvin addressed the need in the rotation this offseason, I just wish it would have been done differently.

4.  People have been predicting a breakout season for Rickie Weeks for years and it seemed like it was finally happening in 2009 before a wrist injury knock him out for the season after just 37 games.  Do you think that 2010 will finally be his breakout year?

Rickie Weeks looked like an All-Star before the wrist injury in 2009 due to improved plate discipline and patience.  We've been waiting for the breakout for quite a while now.  I would consider taking him late in fantasy drafts for the fact that he bats in front of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.  If this is the year, you have a very valuable fantasy player.

5.   What rookies could have an impact on the Brewers this year?  Who is the Brewers best long-term prospect?

Alcides Escobar is going to start at shortstop this year.  C's Jon Lucroy and Angel Salome are guys to watch for this spring.  Lucroy played very well in the Arizona Fall League and we'll see if he's passed by Salome in the organizational depth chart.  2nd Brett Lawrie is a guy to watch out for maybe in 2011 or 2012..  The pitching prospects are in the lower levels of the system.  The cupboard is pretty bare at Triple-A and Double-A.

5 Questions with Redbirdroost correspondent Ryan Boyer

In the 2nd of 5 Q&A with our NL Central correspondents, St. Louis Cardinals correspondent Ryan Boyer of Redbirdroost.com took some time to answer some questions on the Cards and their outlook for 2010.  You can check out my answers to his questions on the Cubs HERE.

1.  The last few years have seen Albert Pujols' intentional BB go up from 22, to 34 to 44 in 2009.  Will the signing of Matt Holliday be enough to reverse that trend (i.e. will Holliday be able to provide protection for Pujols)?

I would guess that he will probably draw somewhere around the 34 intentional walks that he drew in 2008. Albert Pujols is still going to get walked intentionally no matter who hits behind him. That’s what happens when you’re the best hitter in the game. But I don’t think anyone can argue that Matt Holliday doesn’t provide about as much protection as one can hope for.

2.  With Brad Penny signing with the Cards, will Dave Duncan be able to work his magic again to turn around a veteran pitcher who has struggled the last two years?  Will Penny, who probably still considers himself a power pitcher, buy into the Cardinals pitching philosophy of throwing lots of sinkers?

I foresee a nice season coming from Penny. As you noted, Dave Duncan nearly always gets every ounce of talent that a veteran like Penny has left. And while he does likely envision himself as a power pitcher (and he should given that he averaged an even 94.0 mph on his fastballs last season), he also gets a decent number of groundballs, with a career 1.30 GB/FB rate, including rates of 1.58 in 2007 and 1.60 in 2008. I don’t see Penny needing to change his pitching philosophy all that much to fit in with Duncan.

3.  Will the Cardinals resign John Smoltz to fill out the rotation or will they use an internal option at 5th starter (Jaime Garcia, Rich Hill or Lance Lynn)?

I think Smoltz probably wants more money than the Cardinals are willing to allot to their No. 5 starter, and it sounds like they are likely to spend what money they have left on Felipe Lopez. New acquisition Rich Hill, as well as Jaime Garcia and Kyle McClellan are expected to be the primary combatants for the final spot in the rotation. If Hill pitches well this spring, I think he will get the spot, as McClellan is probably still needed in the bullpen and the team would like to take it easy on Garcia in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery.

4.  Does Brendan Ryan have the bat and range to be the long-term answer at short for the Cardinals or is Tyler Greene or Pete Kozma the shortstop of the future?

Ryan certainly has the range, as his UZR rating last year was bested only by Paul Janish in the National League. I think if he had been the starter all season long at short, Ryan would have been squarely in the conversation for the Gold Glove (and as such, I think he will be a contender in 2010). The bat isn’t as sure of a thing, however, he was a career .292 hitter in the minors, so it shouldn’t be all that surprising that he matched that mark last season in the majors. He and new hitting coach Mark McGwire have worked together over the last couple offseasons, so the Cardinals hope that rapport can be carried over and Ryan can at least repeat the offensive numbers he posted last year.

5.  After struggling down the stretch (7.56 ERA in Sept/Oct) and in the playoffs (3 hits and 2 BB in 1.1 IP) last year, is Ryan Franklin in danger of losing his hold on the closer role?  If so, who might replace him?

The Cardinals will give Franklin a bit of a leash. He earned that based on the entirety of his work last year. However, they’re also not going to have blind faith in him. They know how much he struggled at the end of last year and they know his career of mediocrity before last season. If he does struggle, the most common thought is that Jason Motte would get the first chance at the job. However, I think Tony La Russa would likely just turn to the hottest hand or take a committee approach. Also, don’t overlook Eduardo Sanchez, who dominated at Double-A last year. He has received an invite to spring training and is a darkhorse to make the opening day roster.