With 5 games to go in the 2010 season, the Cubs offense ranks 10th in runs scored with 674 in 157 games (4.3 per game). This is a far cry from the 2008 season when the Cubs were second in the majors in runs scored. So why the big drop off?
Part of the reason can be attributed to the lack of a quality leadoff man. The various Cubs leadoff men have hit a combined .253/.316/.367 on the year. Ryan Theriot was the Cubs top leadoff man in 2010, almost by default, with a .275/.310/.308 line in 56 games atop the Cubs order. However, with Theriot out of the picture for 2010, who will be the leadoff man in 2011?
Let's take a look at the candidates:
Kosuke Fukudome - Fukudome was second to Theriot in games started at leadoff with 46, however, his .197/.314/.303 line forced the Cubs to look at other options. His one redeeming quality is his ability to take a walk. But, with Tyler Colvin starting in right, Fukudome will more likely be relegated to the bench in 2011.
Tyler Colvin - Colvin has started 24 games as the Cubs leadoff hitter, with limited success. His line in the leadoff spot is .250/.310/.538. However, his power is better suited for further down in the lineup. In fact he's had his best success in the 5th or 6th spots.
Blake DeWitt - since joining the Cubs on July 31st, DeWitt has started 12 games as the leadoff hitter with a .216/.250/.392 line. He has spent most of his career (192 out of 226 games) hitting at the bottom of the order in the 6-8 spots. Its unlikely that he'll wind up in the leadoff spot.
Darwin Barney - in his 16 games in the bigs, Barney has started 4 of them leading off. He is just 2 for 15 in the spot, but it appears the Cubs are willing to try him there, if need be.
Alfonso Soriano - Soriano has not started a game in the leadoff spot this year, but is a career .288/.338/.538 hitter in the leadoff spot. With his knee problems, his days of 30-40 SB's are over, but he could be an option for the Cubs. However, I think the Cubs will need him more in the middle of the order next year.
Marlon Byrd - Byrd has been the leadoff hitter for 5 games this season with unrivaled success (.500/.522/.727) albeit in limited at bats. For his career, Byrd is a .289/.352/.418 hitter in the leadoff spot. He is a strong candidate for the leadoff spot.
Starlin Castro - The Cubs hitting leader with a .301 average, Castro has been used only one time in the leadoff spot this year and went 0 for 4. He has spent the majority of his time in the bigs hitting second in the order. Its possible the Cubs have not tried him at leadoff more this year as they did not want to put any more pressure on their rising star. However, with a successful season under his belt, its possible they could give him a shot leading off in 2011.
Prediction
The Cubs don't have the prototypical leadoff hitter on the team and its unlikely they'll go out and acquire one before next season. Thus, based on the choices currently on the roster, I think the Cubs would be best off with either Byrd or Castro leading off. With Byrd's prior experience leading off and Castro appearing comfortable in the second hole, I would hit Byrd first and Castro second, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs make Castro the leadoff man.
I think that the Cubs best lead off hitter is available in AA. They have Guyer, Campana, and Jackson with good speed and a decent OBP. Would this translate to the big leagues? Only one way to find out. If it were me, I would spend some time with Colvin this Winter to ready him for the 1B job. This would then open the RF job up for one of these AA guys to try to win in Spring Training. These 3, plus Snyder from AAA and Fukudome (if not traded) should all be given equal chances to win the job with the focus that the lead off batter will come from RF.
ReplyDeleteI think Jackson could be the centerfielder and leadoff hitter of the future, I just don't think the future is 2011. He'll probably start the year in AA or AAA, depending on how he does in the Arizona Fall League and could be a mid-season callup. However, even if he is called up midseason, I don't think the Cubs are going to put more pressure on him by making him the leadoff hitter. Chances are he'll hit 7th or 8th at first to get his feet wet and then maybe be moved up to the second spot (similar to what the Cubs did with Castro).
ReplyDeleteHowever, I could see Jackson and Castro hitting 1-2 in 2012, easily.
I also believe that Jackson needs at least one more year in the minors, though many said that about Castro this year. I would like to take a long look at Brandon Guyer next spring. This guy posted some really nice numbers in AA and became the Cubs' Minor League Player of the Year.
ReplyDeleteGuyer is certainly an interesting prospect for the Cubs and I too would like to see what he can do at the major league level.
ReplyDeleteTo me, and I'm no scout, he seems like one of those "gamer" types, who doesn't have one standout tool, but does everything well. He has some pop and, although he may not have the plus speed of a Jackson, he has above average speed and is a smart baserunner (as evidence by his being caught stealing only 3 times this year). He doesn't strike out a lot, but he also doesn't draw a lot of walks. He may be better suited for the 2 hole or the 8 hole.
The biggest question will be do the Cubs have an open position for him? If Hendry signs a big bat for first base, Colvin will stay in right and Guyer will spend the year at AAA. Even if the Cubs don't sign a first baseman, there's no guarantee that Colvin will be moved there and open up an opportunity for Guyer. The Cubs have been talking about moving Colvin to first for over a month and yet they have never tried him there (and with him out for the season, it will have to happen in spring training now).
So, I guess it all comes down to what Hendry does this offseason.
Colvin needs to be down in Arizona over the Winter working with coaches at first base. Then carry this over into Spring Training. To have him play 1B in the majors this year could have been damaging to his confidence.
ReplyDeleteI'd look into Jacob Ellsbury. He's been injured all year and there are rumblings the Red Sox do not like how he rehabbed away from the team. Instead of having Colvin learn another position, include him with a another prospect or two for Ellsbury. With Fukudome around for one more year and B Jax on the cusp, Colvin is expendable.
ReplyDeleteWith all the 1 run games we lost this year, getting a lead off hitter with speed and on base ability should be a top priority.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I won't hold my breath.
To mike, Colvin is not expendable. The cubs have been looking for a lefty bat with some power. Why would you gey rid of a young guy who can play to get ellsbury from boston. If their is truth to the rumors trade ramirez to boston and get ellsbury but to trade colvin would be the dumber than getting milton bradley. I hope you are not a cub fan.
ReplyDeleteWell, we are trading Fukudome +1 to the Giants for Matt Cain so that is out. If Tyler plays 1B and we lose Zambranos contract, we then acquire Carl Crawford which will add mega options to the top of the order. If Tyler plays RF we then go out and get Adam Dunn for first which adds about.900 OPS to the lineup, but still no true leadoff hitter.
ReplyDeleteThe bigger question should be who will play 2B next year, because obviously we need alot more production there than Dewitt. My money is on Orlando Hudson who is a free agent, or Jose Lopez from Seattle in a trade.
ReplyDeleteI discussed the second base options in a post last week. To sum it up, I think that Hudson is an option, but if they don't get him, they will probably go with a platoon of DeWitt and Baker and wait for some of their prospects to develop (like Flaherty and LeMahieu).
ReplyDeleteTo Dan, you obviously think Colvin is the second coming of Heyward. His .316 obp and 100 ks makes him the lh equivalent of Mark Reynolds. He has no strike zone judgement and the Cubs should sell high for once. There are a number of free agent 1B options this year or next that can provide the LH pop the Cubs will be looking for and Brett Jackson will give the Cubs a nice LH stick in the next couple years.
ReplyDeletei think colvin is expendable and should be used as bait to the right team .... san diego for gonzalez . not sure what the cubs would have to package with colvin to make it work . maybe trade colvin , fukodome , wells and samardija as long as gonzalez could be signed long term . signing hudson would kind of fit the 2b and leadoff roll .sign huff for the same contract as hudson to play right for a few years till jackson makes it up . that would leave a starting lineup of hudson , castro , gonzalez , ramirez ,soriano , huff ,byrd ,and soto . that makes a rotation of dempster , zambrano , silva , gorzelany , and coleman . at the rate of paying huff and hudson 5 mil each and gonzalez say 18 mil , then shedding 7 mil off of fukodome and the 2 mil off of samardija that spends 19 mil extra . non tender baker , hill , and hoff and save another two mil add raises you probably add another 6 mil . thats 23 mil total . losing lee and lilly saved the team 23 mil so i think they broke even .
ReplyDeletethen again , thats one slow lineup batting order.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, this question can't really be answered until we understand the direction that Ricketts wants to take. Personally, I want a rebuild and that starts with hiring Sandberg.
ReplyDeleteMark...you mentioned "gamer" when talking about Guyer. Well, that is the direction I want the Cubs to take goin' forward. We need more GAMERS and fewer Divas.
With the Cubs deep pockets and if they develop a GAMER mentality in the system, I think the Cubs could be ready to compete in '12 and beyond. That's why Sandberg is my pick for manager...he was a Gamer and I think that's what we fans deserve as a manager!! Take care...peaceyo, Justin
Just so you know more about me...
ReplyDeleteI don't want to build a championship through big spending. Build the system, then strategically use free agency to become stronger.
For 2011, I would not mind re-signing Nady to play 1B. At the same time, I'd like to see Colvin be able to play some 1B...I like versatility!! But, I don't necessarily want Colvin to be a full-timer at first.
I really don't want Adam Dunn regardless of his numbers. The guy has never really been a winner anywhere...granted, he has played in Cincy & Washington. But, I just don't think he's the answer.
If good decisions are made this winter, I think the Cubs could position themselves to be competitive in '12. Just my opinion, YO!!
How do you just immediately write off Fukudome? I think he is the clear top option to lead off. Next to Soto, Fukudome had the highest OBP on the team at .371 this year and it's not even close. Every year in the league he has steadily improved his slugging and OPS and with 13 homers in 358 ab, he may show legitimate 20 homer pop if given the at bats. I think Dome needs to be given a shot at the full time job in right, Colvin sure seems athletic enough to handle first.
ReplyDeleteDon't look at just what a guy does while batting #1: the samples sizes never are large enough to support the idea that a guy hits differently in one spot than in another. (For all of the talk, Soriano's numbers as a leadoff man are NOT significantly different from his numbers anywhere else.) Also, this is the NL, which means that the leadoff guy is batting after one and usually two out-machines. More than anybody else, he will be batting with the bases empty. To this end, the only stat worth considering is OBP. Dewitt, Castro and Fukudome have the tools to be high (0.38+) OBP guys. Colvin is strictly a guess hitter who basically is going to put up Franceour-type numbers. Byrd's OBP tends to be a little too low. Brett Jackson MIGHT be the answer in the future: yes, he K's a lot, but this is not because he swings at bad pitches (a la Colvin or Josh Vitters). Instead, it's because he goes deep into counts. Thus, unlike Vitters or Colvin, Jackson walks a lot (compare his OBP to his BA: it's good!) Deep counts mean lots of K's and lots of BB's, and usually also a high BA on balls put into play. THAT is what we want in a leadoff guy. K's are "worse" outs than other outs only when there are men on base with less than 2 outs: and nobody has fewer PAs like that than an NL leadoff hitter.
ReplyDeleteI'm writing him off because Colvin has supplanted him as the starting rightfielder and its possible that he could be dealt this offseason (Hendry was trying to trade him earlier this season).
ReplyDeleteI think putting Colvin at first should be more of a last resort, if they cannot find someone else (preferably a young, major-league ready first baseman) to take over.
As much as I wish they would, San Diego is not going to take that deal.
ReplyDeleteIf we are going to trade for Gonzalez, I think it will take something like Colvin, a pitching prospect, such as Jay Jackson, and a couple of other prospects.
I agree that this team needs to rebuild and, although Ricketts says the team will be younger, that doesn't necessarily equate to rebuilding. So, it remains to be seen what direction Hendry and Ricketts will go.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I have a sinking feeling Hendry is going to go out a spend a bunch to land Adam Dunn and continue to try to patch a lineup together with overpriced free agents. If he does that, we will continue to end up in a position where we are now handcuffed by overblown contracts that are keeping us from doing the things we need to do to get better.
I love the idea of Gonzalez, but I don't know that it makes a lot of sense to trade for him. He'll be a free agent after next year and there won't be a lot of competition for him in terms of teams and their ability to take on the salary he's going to be looking for.
ReplyDeleteThe Cubs really need to look at 2012 as the year they are going to be positioned to make a run. If I'm trading players, it's for a #1 type pitcher like a Greinke or to a lesser extent Garza.
With Gonzalez and Fielder free agents for 2012, hopefully the Cubs can get one (preferebly Gonazalez) and with Fukudome and hopefully Zambrano off the payroll, they'll have the $ available.
I wonder why we didn't go after Juan Pierre after his departure from the Dodgers? I hated to see him leave the first time and we have not had a prototypical leadoff hitter since.
ReplyDeleteMy gut says we will end up platooning next year with KF, Byrd, and maybe Soriano.
I wouldn't call Juan Pierre a "prototypical leadoff hitter", because he doesn't get on base enough. Sure, he'll hit around .300 every year and steal lots of bases, but his OBP with the Cubs was only .330. A good leadoff hitter should have a OBP of .350 or above.
ReplyDeleteThe last prototypical leadoff hitter the Cubs had was Kenny Lofton, who hit .327/.381/.471 in a half season with the Cubs in 2003 and nearly led them to the promised land. If the Cubs could find a leadoff hitter like that, their offense would be vastly improved.
Maybe I classify him that way compared to what we currently boast. If Ellsbury can stay healthy I say we make a run at him.
ReplyDeleteIf it were up to me, Byrd and Castro go into spring training as the two guys to look at with regards to the lead off spot. Castro had a nice season in the 2-hole but if Fukudome is gonna play, his ability to take pitches makes him a decent choice there. I'd hate to lose Byrd's production in the middle of the order but you'd hope that Ramirez, Soto and Soriano could all find a way to stay healthy and cover that part of the lineup. Colvin taking the next step in his progression could also be huge for the team. Bottom line: as currently constituted, the Cubs are likely to have some offensive issues. With Ramirez and Soriano not getting any younger, and with them each commanding a massive portion of the Cubs' payroll, the ability to make any huge upgrades is probably not a possibility.
ReplyDeleteBeing a blawger is like being in charge of your own personal insane asylum.
ReplyDelete