Cubs sale to Ricketts family is (finally) complete

As reported in the Chicago Tribune, the Ricketts family officially took control of the Cubs Tuesday morning.

I already addressed what kind of impact the Ricketts family could have on the 2010 season HERE.  With a lot of bloated contracts on the books, it appears that Jim Hendry's hands could be tied, unless the Ricketts decide to increase payroll or Hendry is able to shed some payroll (namely Milton Bradley).

Lou Piniella has his wish list, but it all hinges on the Cubs trading Milton Bradley without having to eat a significant portion of his contract.  If the Cubs can do that and quickly, Hendry can start to put all of the other pieces in place.

Minor League Review: Tennessee Smokies

The Tennessee Smokies finished in first place in the Southern League North division with an overall record of 71-69.  Led by Cubs Manager-of-the-Future Ryne Sandberg, they made it all the way to the Southern League finals before losing to Jacksonville.

They were second in the league in hitting with a .268 average, but finished 6th out of 10 teams in runs scored with 591.  They also finished 6th with a 3.99 team ERA and 8th with a 1.41 team Whip.  So, overall they posted pretty average numbers, but were able to win a weak division.

Top Hitting Prospects

1. Tyler Colvin - almost a forgotten prospect after a down season in 2008, Colvin put together a fine season upon repeating AA in 2009.  Coming off Tommy John surgery, Colvin played 32 games in Daytona before returning to Tennessee and posting a .300/.334/.524 line.  He hit 14 HR's in 84 games at AA after hitting just 1 in his stint at Daytona and earned a September callup.  He projects as a corner outfielder, due to his lack of range, but could be the lefthanded power hitter that Piniella's been searching for all his life.


2. Darwin Barney - a "gamer" who knows how to win, Barney will not impress you with any one tool, but its the total package that impresses scouts.  He is rated the top fielding shortstop in the Cubs system, despite not having the range of the other Cubs SS prospects, because of, as Baseball America puts it, "his instincts, ability to read balls off the bat, fast hands and quick release."  In 2009, he split his playing time between AA and AAA hitting .317 at Tennessee and .293 overall.  He doesn't have a lot of power (only 3 HR's) or speed (only 9 SB's), but he is definitely a top prosepct.


3. Ty Wright - Rated the Cubs 25th best prospect (preseason) by Baseball America, Wright put up fine numbers at AA.  Overall, he hit .290/.349/.412 in 442 AB's, including 9 HR's and 5 SB's.  He doesn't project to hit for a lot of power in the majors, but could end up being a Reed Johnson-like 4th outfielder.  He can play all 3 outfield positions, can hit for average and shows good instincts on the bases.


4. Marquez Smith - Although he played mostly thirdbase for the Smokies, Smith projects as a utilityman in the majors.  He can already play second and should be able to handle the corner outfield positions and possibly even catcher.  He was rated the top defensive thirdbaseman in the Hawaiian Winter League last year.   As a hitter, he won't overwhelm you with his average (.278 overall) or power (15 HR's), but he should at least provide the Cubs with some pop off the bench.


5. Tony Thomas - A third round selection in the 2007 draft, Thomas was labeled as an good-hit no-field prospect.  He shed some of the "no-field" label last year, when he led all FSL secondbasemen in fielding percentage, however he regressed some this year and led Tennessee with 17 errors.  At the plate, Thomas didn't fare much better, hitting .251 overall.  He showed a good eye, drawing 50 walks, but also struck out 106 times in 427 AB's.  He has some pop (11 HR's) and average speed (13 SB's in 26 attempts), but has to cut down on the strikeouts if he is going to make it in the majors.

Top Pitching Prospects

1. Casey Coleman - A lightly regarded 15th round pick in the 2008 draft, Coleman won't impress you with his overall stuff (only 84 K's in 149 IP), but he proved to be a big game pitcher while winning 14 games for the Smokies and leading them to the playoffs.  As a result, he earned the Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year award.  Coleman won't get himself into trouble (only 58 walks allowed) or give up a big inning (only 8 HR's allowed), which helped him finish second on the team with a 3.68 ERA.  It remains to be seen how his "stuff" will play on the big league level, but he'll get a chance to prove himself at AAA next year.


2. Jeremy Papelbon - the younger brother of Boston's Jonathan Papelbon, Jeremy led the Smokies with a 3.38 ERA while working as a spot-starter/long reliever.  He doesn't appear to have the dominating stuff that his brother has (only 77 K's in 104 IP), but he has good control (only 26 walks) and does not give up a lot of HR's (only 9 allowed).


3. John Gaub - a power lefty with a low-to-mid 90's fastball, Gaub projects as a late inning reliever in the majors.  At Tennessee, Gaub showed dominant stuff while posting a 2.83 ERA with 40 K's in 28.2 IP.  He was a little wild (17 walks allowed), but showed enough to earn a promotion to AAA, where he was even more impressive (1.72 ERA and 40 K's in 31.1 IP).  He is currently pitching in the Arizona Fall League and should compete for a bullpen spot with the Cubs in spring training.


4. Alex Maestri - Maestri is a rarity, an Italian baseball prospect, but he has shown the ability to get hitters out with a fastball that sits in the upper 80's and a slider that is one of the best in the system.  He projects as a middle-reliever in the majors and worked in relief at Tennessee, posting a 3.69 ERA in 85.1 IP.  He needs to cut down on the walks (52) if he is going to succeed in his quest to reach the majors.


5. Marcos Mateo - a cousin of former Cubs pitcher Juan Mateo, Mateo can bring the heat with a fastball ranging from 92-97 mph and his slider has the makings of a plus pitch.  The Cubs used Mateo primarily as a starter at the beginning of the season, so he could develop his pitches, before converting him to a reliever mid-season.  Overall, in 34 games (14 starts) Mateo posted a 4.07 ERA.  If he can harness his pitches (43 walks in 97.1 IP) he could end up at the back of the Cubs bullpen.

So, there you have it, not a particularly strong bunch of prospects, but there are several who ranked among the Cubs top prospect heading into 2009 (only Coleman and Papelbon did not make Baseball America's top 30 Cubs prospects).

Up next, I will finish my review of the Cubs minor leagues with the Iowa Cubs on Thursday.  You can check out the complete schedule, including links to all of my other reviews HERE.

Minor League Review: Daytona Cubs

Today I'll take a look at the Daytona Cubs of the Florida State League (high A). 

Overall, Daytona finished 64-71, the 4th worst record in the FSL.  As a team, they hit .253 and finished last in the league with just 42 homeruns.  However, they were second in the league with 155 stolen bases.  Put it all together and they scored the 4th fewest runs in the league with 527.

On the pitching side, they finished with a respectable 3.44 ERA good for third in the league and were second with 13 shutouts.

Top Hitting Prospects

1. Starlin Castro - The Cubs top shortstop prospect, Castro was ranked the Cubs 7th best prospect (preseason) by Baseball America and he did nothing to disappoint.  He hit .302 in 96 games with Daytona, including 22 steals, before earning a promotion to Tennessee.  Overall, he finished with a .299/.342/.392 line and is currently tearing up the Arizona Fall League with a .433 average.  He could potentially get a September callup in 2010 with an eye towards the starting shortstop job in 2011.


2. Brandon Guyer - Considered the best athelete in the Cubs system by Baseball America, Guyer tore up the FSL hitting .347 in 73 games (265 AB's) before being promoted to AA.  He added a .407 OBP and 23 steals (in 25 attempts) to boot.  While he didn't fare as well in AA (.190 ave in 57 games), he showed enough to be considered one of the Cubs top 10-15 prospects.


3. Tony Campana - A 13th round pick in the 2008 draft, Campana was promoted to Daytona from Peoria early in the year.  He posted a .284 ave in 108 games for Daytona.  Although he showed little power (.312 Slg), Campana's best asset is his speed.  He swiped 55 bases for Daytona and 66 for the year.  It remains to be seen where centerfielder Campana fits in the Cubs plans, but he could become another Wily Taveras/Juan Pierre type player.

Top Pitching Prospects

1. Andrew Cashner - Rated the third best Cubs prospect (preseason) by Baseball America, Cashner lived up to the lofty ranking by dominating the FSL.  In 42 innings over 12 starts, Cashner posted a 1.50 ERA.  He gave up only 31 hits and 15 walks while striking out 34.  He was promoted to AA Tennessee for another 12 starts and finished the year with an overall 2.60 ERA in 100.1 IP.  He is continuing to refine his skills in the Arizona Fall League and could be the longshot/sleeper for the 5th starting spot in 2010.


2. Jay Jackson - The Cubs 9th best prospect as rated by Baseball America, Jackson also dominated the FSL posting a 1.64 ERA in 7 starts (38.1 IP).  However, what was most impressive was his 46/4 K/BB ratio.  Jackson was promoted to AA Tennessee, where he made 16 starts and posted a 3.70 ERA.  He finished the season at AAA Iowa, where he made 1 start.  Overall, he finished with a 2.98 ERA and 127 K's in 127 IP.


3. Craig Muschko - Not as highly regarded as Jackson and Cashner, Muschko nonetheless impressed in his first year at Daytona, posting a 3.31 ERA and an 85/19 K/BB ratio in 103.1 innings.  After spending most of the first half of the season as a reliever, with poor results (4.82 ERA in 46.2 IP), he was converted to a starter and pitched lights out the rest of the season.  Overall, as a starter, he was 3-2 with a 2.06 ERA and a 53/10 K/BB ratio in 56.2 IP.

Overall, there was a good mix of prospects at Daytona.  Starlin Castro is definitely the star of the bunch, but don't forget about Guyer, Cashner and Jackson.  All should be solid regulars in the bigs.  As for Campana and Muschko, they have talent but it remains to be seen how that will translate to the bigs.

Next up, I will be reviewing the AA Tennessee Smokies on Tuesday.  You can check out my full minor league review schedule HERE.

Minor League Review: Peoria Chiefs

The Chiefs finished the season with a 81-57 record and a first place finish in the Mid-Western division.  The Chiefs led the league with a .278 average and 111 HR's, while finishing 3rd with 701 runs scored.  Their pitching wasn't too shabby either, finishing 3rd with a 3.59 ERA, including 10 shutouts.

Overall, the team performed very well and showcased a lot of talent.  Therefore, it was hard to narrow down the top prospects to just 3 hitters and 3 pitchers, so I will be featuring 5 hitters and 5 pitchers.

Top Hitting Prospects

1. Josh Vitters - The star of the Cubs minor league system and their best prospect, Vitters played 70 games with Peoria, hitting .316 with 15 HR's before earning a promotion to Daytona (high A).  He doesn't strikeout a lot (only 65 K's in 458 AB's between Peoria and Daytona, but he doesn't walk a lot either (only 12 walks all year).  But his line of .316/.351/.535 at Peoria was very impressive.


2. Brett Jackson - The Cubs first pick in the 2009 draft, Jackson showed off his strong bat at 3 levels (AZL, Boise and Peoria) during his debut, putting up an overall line of .318/.418/.488.  It took him a little time to get his homerun stroke going, 1 HR in his first 99 AB's followed by 7 in his last 112 AB's.  He showed good baserunning ability (13 SB's in 15 attempts) and plays great defense and should be the Cubs centerfielder of the future.


3. Ryan Flaherty - Drafted 41st overall in the 2008 draft, Flaherty started his Cubs minor league career playing shortstop, but due to the glut of shortstop prospects in the Cubs system, he was moved to second base in 2009.  He showed good power for a middle infielder, hitting 20 HR's and slugging .470.  His 15 errors at second could be a cause for concern, but considering his transition from short this year, we'll chalk it up to learning the position.


4. Kyler Burke - Selected 35th overall in the 2006 draft, Burke was acquired from the Padres in June 2007 as part of the Michael Barrett trade.  Burke didn't hit particularly well in his first 3 years in the minors, but put together a breakout season in 2009, hitting .303/.405/.505 to lead the team in OPS.  He led the team with 43 doubles and 78 walks.  He also added 14 SB's to boot.  Only 21, he is still maturing and a lot of those doubles may turn in to HR's down the road, so keep an eye on him.


5. D.J. LeMahieu - the Cubs second pick (79th overall) in the 2009 draft, LeMahieu didn't dissapoint in his debut, hitting .323 between the AZL and Peoria.  Although he failed to hit a homerun in 164 AB's this season, the Cubs are hoping he power will develop as he adds some meat to his 6'4" 185 lbs frame and learns to turn on more pitches. 

Top Pitching Prospects

1. Christopher Archer - A 5th round pick of the Cleveland Indians in 2006, Archer showed dominating stuff this year posting a 2.81 ERA with 119 K's in 109 innings.  He needs to cut down on the walks (66 or 5.4/9), but he gave up only 78 hits and 0 (yes, ZERO) HR's this year.


2. Jeffrey Beliveau - an 18th round pick last year, Beliveau did his best to match Archer, posting a 3.54 ERA and 117 K's in 96.2 innings.  The Cubs gave him 7 starts during the year, but he fared better as a reliever (2.78 ERA with 83 K's in 68 IP).  As a lefthander, he could certainly have a fine career as a lefthanded specialist, but his stats point to something more.


3. Christopher Carpenter - the Cubs 3rd round pick in 2008, Carpenter jumped 3 levels in 2009, starting at Peoria and ending up at AA Tennessee.  Along the way, he posted an impressive 2.82 ERA with 118 K's in 130.2 IP.  If he keeps pitching like this, he could get a September callup in 2010 and crack the rotation in 2011.   He is definitely one to watch.


4. Christopher Huseby - The closer for Peoria, he had 18 saves to go along with a sparkling 1.83 ERA and 73 K's in 54 IP.  Plus, he only gave up 10 walks (1.67/9 IP).  An 11th round pick in 2006, he struggled during his first few years in the minors, but seems to have found his niche.


5. Ryan Buchter - a late-round (33rd) pick by the Nationals in 2005, Buchter was kind of old (22) for the Midwest league, but its hard to argue with the numbers:  1.33 ERA, 79 K's and only 36 hits allowed in 61 innings.  He should start next year at Daytona and hopefully he will maintain his dominance and move up the ladder more quickly.  I would like to see him at AA Tennessee by mid-season next year.

So, overall a good group of talent and one that certainly bodes well for the Cubs future.

Sunday, I will take a look at Daytona of the Florida State League.  You can find a schedule of my reviews HERE.

Rudy Jaramillo hired as hitting coach. Could Milton Bradley stay?

The Cubs have signed Rudy Jaramillo to a 3 year contract worth roughly $2.4 million, according to the Chicago Sun Times.  Jaramillo is widely considered one of the best hitting coaches in the majors and will try to turn around a Cubs offense that went south this year.

However, what concerns me (and probably more than a few Cubs fans) is that this could be an indication that the Cubs might keep Milton Bradley.  Jaramillo was Bradley's hitting coach in 2008, when Bradley had his best year in the majors.  Could Jim Hendry be thinking that, if they happen to get stuck with Bradley, maybe Jaramillo could turn him back into the hitter he was in 2008?

It would definitely be a riksy move, as Bradley has already burned many bridges, not only with Cubs fans, but with the media and the Cubs players as well.  He would definitely have to mend a lot of fences before the Cubs even considered bringing him back, but it is not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

Hopefully, this is more of a move to get players such as Alfonso Soriano, who played two years (2004-2005) under Jaramillo's tuteledge, Geo Soto, Mike Fontenot and Aaron Miles to start hitting again and not a sign of Bradley eminent return. 

But after last offseason's boneheaded moves by Hendry, I wouldn't put this past him either.

Minor League Review: Boise Hawks

second in my series of minor league reviews for the Cubs is the Boise Hawks of the Northwestern (short season) League.  You can find a complete schedule and links to my other reviews (as their posted) HERE.

Team Results

The Boise Hawks finished with a 34-42 record, tied for 2nd worst in the league (out of 8 teams).  They hit .260 as a team, 6th overall and had a team ERA of 4.76 which put them 7th in the league.  Overall, not a good year for the team.

Top Hitting Prospects

1. Hak-Ju Lee - Signed out of Korea in 2008, Lee was clearly the best hitting prospect at Boise.  He put up an overall line of .330/.389/.420.  He also showed off his excellent speed at Boise, swiping 25 bases (in 33 attempts).  He need to improve his defense (27 errors in 68 games) if he is going to remain at short for the Cubs.  The Cubs have a few shortstop prospects above him, so it will be interesting to see where he ends up.  He ranked as the Cubs 10th best prospect (preseason) by Baseball America and only improved his stock with his strong showing in Boise.


2. Logan Watkins - Drafted in the 21st round in 2008, Watkins played shortstop in HS, but has played mostly second in the minors, due to the Cubs abundance of shortstop prospects.  Watkins had a fine year at Boise, posting a .326/.389/.391 line.  He also stole 14 bases in 21 attempts.  He showed good contact ability, only striking out 31 times in 279 AB's.  Second may not be where he ends up, as he committed 13 errors in 72 games.  He has the range to play center, but has only played leftfield besides second.


3. Robert Wagner - Drafted in the 38th round in 2009, Wagner tore up the AZL (.339 Ave in 56 AB's) before being promoted to Boise.  A thirdbase prospect, Wagner showed the best power of any of the Boise hitters, leading the team with a .531 slugging percentage with 5 HR's and 11 doubles in 113 AB's.  Overall, between the AZL and Boise, Wagner hit 8 HR's in 169 AB's.  As with most young power hitters, his weakness is the strikeout (45 K's).  However, if he can keep the K's in check he could develop into a good power hitting prospect.

Top Pitching Prospects

1. Chris Rusin - The Cubs 4th pick in the 2009 draft, Rusin pitched 2 games for the AZL Cubs before moving up to Boise.  He made 8 starts for the Hawks and posted a 3.48 ERA with 27 K's in 31 IP.  He also had an impressive 27/9 K/BB ratio.  Overall an impressive debut for Rusin and he should move up to Peoria in 2010.


2. Jeffry Antigua - Signed as a non-draft free agent out of the Dominican in 2006, Antigua impressed during his stint at Boise, posting a 2.30 ERA with 35 K's in 31.1 innings.  He only allowed 19 hits and 10 walks before earning a promotion to Peoria, where he 3.62 ERA in 37.1 innings.  He should start 2010 at high A Daytona.


3. Robert Hernandez - Hernandez led Boise in wins (4), K's (67) and ERA (3.36).  However, Boise was actually a demotion for him as he spend 2008 and 2007 with Peoria of the Midwest league.  Still, its hard to argue with the results as Hernandez gave up only 62 hits in 72 innings and had a 67/22 K/BB ratio.

Overall, not a strong group of prospects, Hak-Ju Lee is definitely the cream of the crop and Watkins and Rusin show promise.  However, Wagner, Antigua and Hernandez are fringe prospects at best.

Up next, I will review the Peoria Chiefs of the Midwest league.

Minor League Review: AZL Cubs (Rookie)

I'm starting off the Cubs' minor league review at the bottom with the Arizona (Rookie) League Cubs.  You can find a complete schedule and links to my other reviews (as their posted) HERE.

Team Results

The AZL Cubs finished with an overall record of 29-27, which was 3rd in their division and 4th best overall (out of 11 teams).  As this is where most of the later round picks end up making their debut, this can be seen as an indication of the quality and depth of a teams prospects.

As a team, the AZL Cubs finished 6th in hitting, with a .263 average.  However, they were second in stolen bases, with 109 (in only 56 games).  They didn't display a lot of power, hitting only 23 HR's as a team, however sometimes it takes prospects some time to develop their power.

Their pitching fared a bit  worse, finishing 7th overall with a 4.54 ERA.  The pitching staff gave up 554 hits in just over 503 innings while also walking 204 batters.  Not a good sign of things to come.

Top Hitting Prospects


A lot of the Cubs top 2009 draft picks played in the AZL.  Brett Jackson (1st round), D.J. Lemahieu (2nd), Richard Jones (9th) and D.J. Fitzgerald (22nd) all played well in limited stints (none more than 12 games) in the AZL before quick promotions to the next level.  Thus, they will be covered in later, for the purpose of determining the best hitting prospects for the AZL Cubs, I chose players who played at least 28 games with the team.

1. Francisco Guzman - Signed out of the Dominican Republic, this wiry (6'1", 160 lbs) Centerfielder showed a good eye at the plate (41 walks in 53 games) and good speed (32 SB's in 40 attempts).  He led the team with a .400 OBP (for players with more than 100 AB's) and has all the makings of a leadoff man.  His .264 average was nothing to write home about, but as he gains some more strength and experience, he should be able to drive the ball more and raise that average.


2. Charles Thomas - The Cubs 10th pick in the 2009 draft, the firstbaseman led the team in Slugging with a .431 mark.  Although he hit only 1 HR, he had 11 doubles to lead the team.  As he gets stronger a lot of those doubles will turn into HR's.  He was also second on the team with a .306 average.  He needs to be a little more patient (only 13 walks in 45 games) and cut down on the strikeouts (43), but overall it was a good debut for Thomas.


3. Kevin Soto - A leftfielder signed as a non-drafted free agent out of Venezuela, Soto led the team with a .328 average.  He also added 16 SB's.  He needs to be a little more patient (7 walks in 37 games) and cut down on the strikeouts (35), but he's got some talent.

Top Pitching Prospects

Again, several of the Cubs 2009 draft picks made pit stops here on their way to higher levels, including Austin Kirk (3rd round), Chris Rusin (4th) and Brooks Raley (6th).  However, of the pitchers who pitched at least 15 innings in the AZL, here are my top picks:

1. Julio Pena - Another Dominican, Pena impressed with his control (40 to 5 K/BB ratio in 44 IP) and led the team with 4 wins, along with a sparkling 3.07 ERA.  He did give up 46 hits in those 44 innings, which indicates he may not have the type of dominating stuff to succeed higher up, but this is a guy worth keeping an eye on.


2. Toby Matchulat - An 11th round pick in 2008, Matchulat has a rough start to his career last year with 29 walks and an 11.57 ERA in 18.2 innings.  However, he bounced back nicely in his second go around in the AZL, posting a 3.13 ERA in 31.2 IP.  He was still a bit wild, allowing 17 walks, but he appears to be making progress.


3. George Pineda - Signed as a non-drafted free agent out of the Dominican, Pineda followed up a strong 2008 showing (3.60 ERA, 40 K's and 6 saves in 35 IP) with another strong season, including a 3.31 ERA and 18 K's in 16.1 IP.

Overall, most of the best prospects spent little (or no) time in this league, leaving slim pickings for the top prospect choices.  I have more confidence in the hitters eventually reaching the majors than any of the pitchers.

Finally, it should be noted that the above selections are based on stats alone, as I did not have access to any scouting reports on these players.

Up next, the Boise Hawks of the short season rookie league.  The review of the Hawks will be posted on (or before) Tuesday.

Arizona Fall League Update

The Arizona Fall League got underway on Tuesday with Josh Vitters and Starlin Castro off to hot starts. 

Vitters has gone 5 for 8 (.625) in his two starts so far, including 1 double.  However, he has yet to record an RBI or score a run.  If he keeps hitting like he has been, he could start 2010 in AA and could see the majors by the end of the year.

Castro is 4 for 10 (.400) with a double, 2 runs and 3 Rbi's.  Castro looks like he could take over short as early as 2011, with Theriot possibly moving to second.

Wellington Castillo has only seen action in 1 game so far and is just 1 for 4 with 2 K's.  The jury's still out on Castillo and a strong showing in the AFL could help restore some of his lost luster.

John Gaub (1 IP, 3 H's, 1 ER and 2 K's), Blake Parker (1 IP, 2 H's and 2 K's) and James Russell (2 IP, 4 H's, 2 ER's and 2 K's) have all seen limited action so far.  All project as relievers in the majors, with Gaub having the most upside.

Finally, Andrew Cashner has yet to see action as he is waiting for his turn to come up in the starting rotation.  He should get the start in the next day or two.

You can check out all of the players stats here.

So far a good start for the hitters and a mediocre start for the pitchers.  That is typical of the AFL, as the hitters are usually better prospects than the pitchers, as most teams tend to try to save the wear and tear on their yound pitchers arms.

I will continue to give you updates weekly as the season progresses.

Minor league review schedule

Sorry gang, my "other" work has kept me kind of busy lately, including at night, so I haven't been able to post as much.  However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, so I plan to roll out my reviews of the Cubs affiliates, based on the following schedule:

Sunday, October 18 - AZL Cubs (Rookie)

Tuesday, October 20 - Boise Hawks (SS)

Thursday, October 22 - Peoria Chiefs (A)

Sunday, October 25 - Daytona Cubs (A+)

Tuesday, October 27 - Tennessee Smokies (AA)

Sunday, November 1 - Iowa Cubs (AAA)

Tuesday, November 3 - Top 10 Overall Prospects

Thursday, November 5 - Top 10 Prospect for 2010

Note:  I have added dates for my top 10 list and pushed back the original date for the Iowa Cubs review.

Cardinals swept by Dodgers

If its any solace for Cubs' fans, the Cardinals were swept out of the playoffs in the same fashion as the Cubs last year, losing three straight to the Dodgers.  The Cardinals played so badly in the series that St. Louis Post Dispatch writer, Bernie Miklasz, went so far as to say the Cardinals were playing like Cubs.

Although the Dodgers didn't score as many runs against the Cardinals (13) as they did against the Cubs (20), both the Cubs and Cardinals were held to only 6 runs each and the end result was the same. 

So, does that mean that the NL Central is a weak division or just that the Cubs and Cardinals happened to run into a hot team? 

Well, in 2008, one could make the argument that the NL Central was the best division in the NL.  They had 4 teams with records over .500 and the Cubs had the best record in the NL at 97-64.  The Cubs were definitely the team to beat in the NL.  So, what happened?  Well, they ran into the buzzsaw known as the Dodgers. 

The Dodgers of 2008 were not a spectacular team, finishing with a 84-78 record, but they were a hot team, having gone 17-8 in September, with Manny Ramirez, who was acquired at the trade deadline, hitting .396 with 17 HR's over the last two months to lead the Dodgers to the playoffs.  Manny went on to hit .500 in the NLDS against the Cubs with 2 HR's and 3 RBI, while the Cubs hitting was shut down by the Dodgers pitching.

As for this year, I don't think anyone could make a case for the NL Central as the best division in the NL, nor were the Cardinals the best team.  The Dodgers ended up with the best record in the NL, despite struggling down the stretch.  However, many experts predicted that the Cardinals would win mainly due to their one-two punch of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.  Well, Carpenter was largely ineffective in his outing, while Wainwright pitched a gem, only to have it blown by the bullpen.

Many of the experts overlooked the fact that the Dodgers had the best TEAM ERA in the NL.  The Cardinals may have had the best starters, but the Dodgers starters were no slouches and the Dodgers have an excellent bullpen.  So, in close games, one has to favor the team with the better bullpen.  Add in the fact that the Cardinals struggled against lefthanders all year and Joe Torre, who knew this as well as anybody, started two lefthanders in the first two games, and you had the makings for an "upset".

Still, when it is all said and done, the Cubs and Cardinals both played pathetically in their division series' against the Dodgers and both of them had the same result. 

Hopefully, whoever represents the NL Central next year will have a little better luck.

Cubs could trade Milton Bradley for Pat Burrell?

A week after saying he might be interested in taking a chance on Milton Bradley, Padres GM Kevin Towers was fired by owner Jeff Moorad.  Apparently just mentioning Bradley's name was enough to convince Moorad that Towers had to go.

So, with one less potential suitor for Bradley, Cubs GM Jim Hendry is pushing hard to trade Bradley to the Tampa Bay Rays.  Apparently Hendry wants to move fast on dumping Bradley so that this doesn't turn into the 2004 offseason when Hendry was unable to trade Sammy Sosa quickly and it handcuffed him the entire offseason.  Of course, maybe a little restraint for spendthrift Hendry would be a good thing.

In any case, it would be good if the Cubs could move quickly in dumping Bradley, so that they can move on to their pursuit of a leadoff hitter who can play second base (are you listening Chone Figgins?).  However, if the Cubs are to trade Bradley to the Rays, chances are they will have to take Pat Burrell in return.  Burrell was a disappointment in Tampa hitting only .221 with 14 HR's and 64 rbi's.  He is only 32 and hit .250 with 33 HR's and a .367 OBP in 2008 with the Phillies.

Burrell is capable of being the RBI bat that Lou Piniella is looking for.  He doesn't hit for a high average (career .254 hitter), but he gets on base (career .363 OBP) and has averaged 26 HR's and 89 RBI's in his career.

I'd be willing to take a chance on him bouncing back, if it meant that the Cubs could dump clubhouse cancerous Bradley in the process.

How I (finally) won my Fantasy Baseball League

Today I've decided to take a break from my usual Cubs ramblings to talk about something that is a bit of an obsession for me, FANTASY BASEBALL.  More importantly how I finally won my league after 12 years of futility (at least Cubs fans can relate to that).

I'm sure there are many of you out there who play fantasy baseball, including some of my league mates who read this blog, so I hope this will be an interesting read.  It is not intended as a guideline for winning nor am I looking to brag about my achievement.  I just wanted to document this for my future reference, so I can remember what I did right and wrong, and if some of the information contained here helps others to win their league, all the better.  So, for those of you who don't play fantasy baseball, well you probably stopped reading this after the first paragraph anyway.

First off, a little background, here are the basic tenants of my league:  5X5, NL only, Rotisserie, Keeper, Auction league with 14 hitters, 11 pitchers and an auction budget of $280. The league's been around for over 15 years.  I joined the league back in 1997.  Although I finished "in the money" several times, my best finish (prior to this year) was second (once).

With that said, and at the risk of letting my league mates get inside my head, here is the thought process that went into building and managing my championship team.

THE "KEEPERS"

As 2008 was a rebuilding year for me, I attempted to acquire a good core of keepers for 2009.  Our rules allow us to keep a maximum of 12 keepers and 3 reserves (minor leaguers).

In my league, it is generally best to start rebuilding (aka "dumping") as early as possible to beat the other dumping teams to the best keepers.  However, after a good start in 2008 gave me a false sense of hope, I ended up as one of the later dumpers and had to pick from the leftover keepers.

In general, I like to obtain the best keepers available (i.e. the ones with the most built-in value).  However, those are also the hardest to obtain, as their owners hold on to them like gold.  But, one can still find hidden gems in the "second tier" of keepers.

In the past, while other owners would pursue the cheap sluggers as their keepers, I would lean towards young, cheap pitchers with upside, closers and speed guys.  This has cost me as the young cheap pitchers have a higher risk, as they can often flame out or get injured, and closers often can lose their jobs.  The speed guys usually have good value, but at lot of times these guys are one-dimensional and don't help in the other categories.

So, in 2008, I tried to balance my penchant for young pitchers, closer and speed guys, with some hitters with upside.  The result was that, at the end of the 2008 season, my potential keepers included:  Lastings Milledge, Michael Bourn, Ryan Spilborghs, Jerry Hairston, Andy LaRoche, Russ Martin, Jesus Flores, Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ, Clayton Kershaw, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jonathan Sanchez, Brad Lidge, Brian Wilson, Mike Gonzalez and Matt Lindstrom.  With Colby Rasmus, Mat Gamel and Chris Coghlan as reserves.

After finishing in last place in batting average in 2008, I wanted to protect my average in 2009, if I was going to contend.  So, I traded off what I thought were risky batting average guys were (Bourn, Hairston and Flores).  Also, to me at least, Jimenez and Sanchez both had ERA/Whip risk, so I traded Sanchez to try to minimize the risk.  In return, I got Chipper Jones and Dexter Fowler (reserve).

Also, I decided to trade off two of my closers who I thought might lose the role due to either ineffectiveness (Lindstrom, whose skills didn't match his role) or competition (Gonzalez, who had Rafael Soriano also competing for the closer role).  In return, I received Yunel Escober and Chase Headley.

So, heading into the auction, here's how my keeper list looked:

Milledge $10, Spilborghs $2, LaRoche $1, Martin $20, Escobar $6, Headley $2, C. Jones $22, W. Rodriguez $1, Jimenez $2, Kershaw $15, Lidge $16 and Wilson $10.  My reserves were Rasmus, Fowler and Yonder Alonso.

Hindsight - Looking back on my decisions, I should have kept Bourn instead of trading him for Chipper, but I don't think anyone predicted the breakout year that Bourn had or that Chipper would fall off so much.  Also, Happ would have been a nice keeper at $4, but it came down to him or Kershaw and I liked Kershaw's upside more.  Finally, I would have rather had Coghlan as my final reserve over Alonso, however Alonso was the better prospect and I didn't think Coghlan would make it to the majors in 2009.

THE AUCTION

When I prepare for the auction, I probably do what a lot of owners do, put together a budget, based on what my needs are and who is available and give myself a few players to choose from for each lineup spot and budgeted amount.

So, for my hitting, I needed to fill 7 spots (2 OF, 1B, 2B, SS/MI, C and UT).  I budgeted $40 for a power hitter at 1B (Fielder, Howard and Berkman were available), $28 for a power hitter at one OF spot (Ibanez, Bruce or Ethier), $28 for a SS (Furcal, Drew or Tulowitzki), $15 for a 2B (Lopez, Matsui, Sanchez or Weeks) and $15 on a starting catcher (I. Rodriguez, Hernandez or Snyder).  I ended up with Fielder ($39), Ethier ($28), Furcal ($28), Hudson ($15) and Snyder ($17).

For the last two spots (OF and UT), I had two reserves in Rasmus and Fowler who looked like they would see significant playing time, so I used these spots to speculate and ended up with Omar Infante at $3 and Everth Cabrera at $1 (don't underestimate rule 5 picks, especially on small market teams).

On the pitching side, I figured I needed a mid-priced ace (around $20-25), who could help stabalize my ERA and ratios, should Jimenez implode.  The remaining 5 spots I would use for speculative purposes.

I ended up getting Chad Billingsley ($27), Micah Owings ($6), Ross Ohlendorf ($2), Franklin Morales ($4), Luis Vizcaino ($1) and Chris Capuano ($1).

At the end of each draft, I run projections for all teams and project the standings.  I used a few different websites' projections and they had me between 1st and 3rd, so I felt good about my team.

Hindsight - Overall, it was a pretty good draft.  I way overspent on Chris Snyder, in my attempt to have starters at each position.  Also, although I liked Billingsley, I felt that $27 was too much for him (which turned out to be true, but in the first half of the year, he carried my pitching staff).  But, if I had made no moves other than replacing Infante with Rasmus and Milledge with Fowler, I would have finished 2nd, one point behind the actual second place finisher.  So my keepers and the draft went a long way towards my success this year.

ROSTER MANAGEMENT

As most of my keepers were in the last year of their contract and therefore had no value for next year, I realized that when dumping season started I would have limited assets to barter with. So, I decided at the beginning of the year that I was going to be aggressive in the FAAB market, going after all free agents that show any value in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.

Most of my free agent acquisitions were duds (Paulino, Rosales, Takahashi, Freel, Redding, Ascanio, Downs, Mock, Oeltjen and Cora).  I did find one quality starter in Randy Wells, who I ended up trading along with Orlando Hudson for Brandon Phillips and Chris Young (SD).  I though Young would do better than Wells over the remainder of the season, but he never came back from his injury.

One important thing I learned this year is to create projections for your league and constantly update them throughout the year.  There are various websites that provide projections for players for the remainder of the year and I used these projections along with the current team stats to update the projections for my league on a monthly and sometimes weekly basis.

Using this tool, I knew that when dumping season started, I had some categories where I could gain some points.  One was HR's and RBI's, so I needed some more power hitters and two I could gain ground in ERA and Whip.  The Hudson and Wells for Phillips and Young trade was meant to improve my power and pitching, however Young's injury derailed that.  I was able to trade one of my keepers, Andy LaRoche, for Adam Dunn, which certainly improved my power.  Between Phillips and Dunn (and a few late season trades for power), I was able to gain a few points in the HR category.

On the pitching side, I tried to improve my ERA and whip more by subtracting bad pitchers.  So I traded off Ohlendorf and Wells (thinking neither could keep up their early season performances) and benched Owings.  Of course, after removing these players from my roster, I was left scrambling to find some decent starting pitching to replace them and therefore not lose ground in Wins and K's.

So, after sifting through the dregs of the free agent pool (bad idea), trading for Mike Hampton (terrible idea), and missing out on the top pitchers being offered by the dumpers, I realized that I needed to land a quality starter and fast.  Luckily around that time, Cliff Lee was traded to Philadelphia and I was able to land him for $61.  I also traded Morales for Jason Marquis, to give me 6 starters, which I felt would be enough to maintain my Wins and K's standings and hopefully improve my ERA and Whip.

Those moves helped my pitching a little, as my ERA went from 4.03 to 3.96 and my Whip went from 1.36 to 1.35.  However, I was able to gain some points in ERA in Whip because of non-contending teams falling off the pace.  So, its important to know who you and your competitors are chasing in each category, as like it or not, the non-contending teams do have an impact on the standings either through action or inaction.

So, other than trading off Fowler for some more power (which may have helped me move up a point in HR's).  My last big move was to trade Everth Cabrera for Heath Bell.  Part of this move was because I was not sure how much longer Lidge would hold onto his role as closer and I wanted to maintain my position in saves, but also because my closest competitor had just lost his last remaining closer to injury and was in danger of losing points in saves, so I wanted to prevent him from acquiring Bell.  That move paid off as my competitor lost 3 points in saves, including one point to me (a 4 point swing), which although it wouldn't have put him over the top, would have made the race a lot closer (I ended up winning by 6.5 points).

Hindsight - As I mentioned before, my draft roster alone would have placed me second in the league by 1 point and since I won the league by 6.5 points, one can say my moves netted me 7.5 points.

My best free agent acquisition was Randy Wells, however I gave up on him too soon and traded him.  Cliff Lee was my second best free agent acquisition, but after starting off strong, he (along with my other pitchers) was shaky down the stretch and nearly cost me points in ERA and Whip.

As far as the trades go, getting Dunn for LaRoche certainly helped and the trade for Phillips helped my offense, to the detriment of my pitching staff.  Trading Ohlendorf (for Brian Schneider and Mike Hampton) was definitely a mistake.  Trading for Marquis helped me in wins and K's, but not in ERA and Whip.  Finally, the Cabrera for Bell trade was a good one mainly because it helped me and hurt my main competitor.

LUCK

Like it or not, luck plays a role in every league.  Injuries hit every fantasy team each year, but this year I had a relatively injury free year.  The only players I lost to injury were Lastings Milledge (who had already been sent to the minors) and Everth Cabrera (who I wasn't counting on anyway).

So, while my main competitor lost Brandon Webb and John Maine for most of the season, injuries did not have a huge impact on my team.

Some people say you make your own luck and that is somewhat true.  You can target players for your reserve roster who are the backups to your active players, but typically these are lesser players (or they would be starting).  So losing one of your key players can definitely hamper your chances for a title, but if you have a strong bench, you can lessen the impact.

WRAPUP

There are writers out there who write about their experiences in "expert" leagues.  I like reading these articles, although I cannot always apply their strategies to my league or team due to differences in rules, categories, etc.  So, this was my attempt to do the same kind of article.  Hopefully it will prove useful in your league.

Cubs end disappointing season. What's in store for the offseason?

The Cubs ended their season today with a 5-2 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Although the season was a disappointment overall, there were some bright spots:

• The Cubs finished with an 83-78 record, their 3rd straight winning season.  The first time they've had 3 straight winning seasons since they had 6 straight from 1967-1972.


• The Cubs pitching staff finished 5th in the league with a 3.84 ERA.


• The Cubs' starting pitchers were among the best 5-some in the majors (even if their won-loss records did not show it).  With the group of Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden and Randy Wells combining  for a 3.51 ERA in their 139 starts.  However, due to poor run support, they finished with a combined 53-44 record.


• Randy Wells came out of nowhere and posted a 12-10 record with a 3.05 ERA.  His 12 wins tied with Ted Lilly for the team lead.


• Although not much went right on offense, Derrek Lee had a great year hitting .306 with 35 HR's and 111 RBI's.


• Ryan Theriot also hit well, posting a .284 ave with a .343 OBP while scoring 81 runs and driving in 54.

So, with the season over, what can you expect from me in the offseason:

First off, I will be keeping tabs on the Cubs trade rumors and roster moves all offseason, from Hendry's attempts to trade Milton Bradley to the Cubs search for "a rbi bat" and a leadoff man.

Second, I will be keep you informed of the Cubs prospects in the Arizona Fall League and how they're progressing.  I will also take an in-depth look at the Cubs' farm teams to see what prospects might make an impact on the team in the future.

Finally, I will keep you up-to-date on all the Cubs' news and how it impacts the team, including the finalization of the sale to the Ricketts family (which just needs to be approved by MLB).

So, it should be an interesting offseason.  Stay tuned.