Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Around the horn: a look at what others are saying.

Checking out the newspapers and blogs, here's what's on their minds:

From the Chicago Tribune -

A poll of major league players conducted by Sports Illustrated has Lou Piniella as the least popular manager in baseball.

Upon learning of the Tribune fan poll, which had 57% of fans saying that Carlos Zambrano should be waived, Zambrano joked "Fine trade me to Boston".

Now for some good news, Aramis Ramirez will begin his rehab stint Friday with Class A Kane County.  Also, top prospect Josh Vitters has been promoted to High A Daytona (too bad he can't help this year).


From the Chicago Sun Times -
Carol Slezak is calling this the Last Stand for lost Lou and saying that the Cubs must fire Piniella if he can't reclaim the team by the All-Star break.

Milton Bradley may take a break.


BleedCubbieBlue.com asks the question "the Pirates are dealing, why can't the Cubs?"

Finally, HireJimEssian.com rips apart Phil Rogers of the Trib for even suggesting that the Cubs trade Zambrano.

Get well soon Ramirez. We miss you!

The Cubs offense is still showing little signs of life, losing to Ross Ohlendorf and the Pirates 3-0 tonight.

The Cubs continued the same trend of failing to hit with runners in scoring position, going 0 for 5.  The worst case occurred in the 8th, when Theriot and Bradley led off the inning with singles and moved up to second and third on an error with no one out.  Needing only to make contact to drive in a run, both Soriano and Fukudome struck out before Derek Lee grounded out to end the inning.

Let's face it the Cubs offense stinks.  They make even the most mediocre pitcher (cough Ohlendorf cough) look like Cy Young.  The do not play fundamental baseball like moving runners up, hitting behind the runner, choking up and trying to make contact with two strikes, etc.

I said in my last post that the next 13 (now 12) games are crucial to the Cubs season.  The way they are playing against lowly Pittsburgh does not bode well for bigger challenges against Atlanta, Milwaukee and St. Louis.  Indications are that Aramis Ramirez could be back in time for the Cardinals series.  Let's hope its not too late to salvage the season.

Monday, June 29, 2009

Cubs beat Bucs 3-1. Ramirez on assignment Thursday?

The Cubs beat the Pirates 3-1 Monday night, thanks to some strong pitching by Rich Harden.  Harden went 7 strong innings allowing only 1 run on 9 hits and a walk.  Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg each pitched one uneventful inning apiece to close out the victory.

Ryan Theriot helped spark the offense with his 7th homerun.  Milton Bradley and Jake Fox had two hits apiece.  The Cubs have two games remaining against PIttsburgh on this road trip before returning home for an eleven game homestand before the All Star Break, including 4 games each against division leaders St. Louis and Milwaukee.

In addition, Aramis Ramirez is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment on Thursday.  If all goes well, he could be back right around the All Star Break.

So, they next 13 games could be crucial to the Cubs chances this season.  If they can win the series' against the Cardinals and Brewers, they can give themselves some momentum heading into the All Star break and Ramirez' return.  If they should lose the series' against the Brewers and Cardinals, then even Ramirez may not be enough to salvage the season.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Ozzie Guillen "Our Fans are not stupid like Cubs fans"

Per Paul Sullivan of the Tribune, Ozzie Guillen called Cubs fans stupid.  Guillen said that Cubs fans will go to Wrigley for any game because "Wrigley is just a bar", whereas White Sox fans "know we're (expletive)".

I know this has been debated back and forth between Sox and Cubs fans ad nauseum, but its interesting that Guillen would bring it up.  Was he trying to rub salt in the wounds, after the Sox took two out of three from the Cubs?  Or is this just Guillen being Guillen?

Who's the bigger headcase Bradley or Zambrano?

After another meltdown by Carlos Zambrano today during the White Sox 6-0 spanking of the Cubs, Phil Rogers suggested that its the Perfect time for Cubs to Waive bye-bye to Carlos Zambrano.

After Zambrano hit Scott Podsednik in the rear in the third inning, for motivations unknown to normal humans, he clearly hit Dewayne Wise in the rear intentionally in the 6th.  This was after he had thrown wildly, to try to avoid a squeeze, and ended up allowing Chris Getz to steal home.  So, perhaps he was just taking his frustrations out on Wise.

In yet another online Tribune poll, 57% of the fans say the Cubs should put Zambrano on waivers, higher than the percent of fans that wanted to cut Bradley yesterday.

Steve Rosenbloom of the Trib sums it up nicely by saying the Cubs can't do anything, and seem to be doing nothing about it.

This team is reminiscent of the 2004 Cubs wildcard collapse.  At least the 2004 team waited until the last 9 games of the season to fall apart.  This year's team is coming unglued in June.

With a little over a month left until the trade deadline, Jim Hendry is going to have to make a tough decision.  Can this team contend or is it time to blow it up and rebuild?

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Much ado about Bradley and Lou

Some interesting stuff is coming out about the whole Milton Bradley/Lou Piniella run-in yesterday.

Fred Mitchell of the Tribune is saying that Cubs Players glad Lou Piniella laid down the law.

Rick Morrisey of the Trib says "What's a little name calling; sometimes it works out for the better."

And to add a hint of conspiracy to the story, the Trib is reporting that the Cubs pitching coach is alleging a leak by one of the White Sox clubhouse employees.

Paul Sullivan of the Trib reports that Bradley is uncomfortable with his fit on Chicago Cubs.

Phil Rogers asks:  Is Lou Piniella's tough love the way to handle Milton Bradley?

An online poll by the Tribune shows that about 50% of the people want the Cubs to cut Bradley.

Finally, an interesting blog on BleedCubbieBlue.com says that several writers have called Bradley "a clubhouse cancer in the truest sense of the word" and a former teammate of Bradley's called him "the biggest ******* he had ever had as a teammate" (see the other blog for the actual expletive).

What does it all mean?  Well, if the Cubs did any kind of due dilligence prior to signing Bradley, they knew that they were getting a volatile headcase, to say the least.  They already had a fiery manager in Lou Piniella and another headcase in Carlos Zambrano, but they decided to take a chance on Bradley, hoping that his offense would offset his personality disorders.

Will Lou's banishment help to keep Bradley in check going forward?  Time will tell, but it seems that Bradley respects Piniella, so hopefully he can keep his anger in check and just play ball.

Cardinals trade for DeRosa

For those of you holding out hope for DeRosa's return to the Cubs, MLB.com Twitter is reporting that the Cardinals acquired Mark DeRosa for Chris Perez and a player to be name later.

So, with DeRosa out of the picture, who if anyone should the Cubs go after?

Cubs lose slugfest 8-7

On a day when the Cubs finally brought their bats to the ballpark, scoring 7 runs including going 4 for 12 with RISP, the normally reliable pitching let them down.

Ryan Dempster allowed 5 runs in his 5 innings of work and left with the Cubs down 5-3.  However, the Cubs scored 3 runs in the top of the 6th to take the lead and put Dempster in line for the win.

That lead was quickly erased when Heilman coughed it up in the bottom of the 6th by allowing a triple to Dewayne Wise, who has yet to reach the Mendoza line (he's hitting .197 on the year), followed by a single to Scott Podsednik.

Heilman settled down to pitch a scoreless 7th and the Cubs took a 7-6 lead with a run in the top of the 8th, thanks to an error by Alexi Ramirez that allowed Freel to reach first.  Freel moved to third on a single by Fukudome and scored on Andres Blanco's groundout (smallball at its finest!).

However, "old realiable" Carlos Marmol allowed a run in the bottom of the 8th, on a hit by Gordon Beckham, a sacrifice and another hit by Alexi Ramirez (well, at least Marmol didn't walk anyone).  Anyone who thought that Marmol should have been the closer over Gregg are probably thankful that is not the case (despite Gregg's less than stellar performance this year).

So, with the score tied 7-7, that set it up for a dramatic 9th inning.  After the Cubs went down in order against Bobby Jenks.  Piniella sent Sean Marshall out for the bottom of the 9th (mainly because Thome and Pierzynski, both lefthanders, were due to bat).  Marshall got Thome to fly out.  Konerko (a righthander) then singled and Josh Fields pinch ran for him).  Pierzynski grounded out, moving Fields to second.  Jose Ascanio was brought in to face the righthander Chris Getz and Guillen countered by pinchhitting Jayson Nix (the managerial wheels were going full speed here).  Ascanio then unintentionally/intentionally walked Nix to face the righthander Gordon Beckham, who hit a first pitch fastball for a single to score the winning run.

It seems like the Cubs are finding new ways to lose and just can't seem to put it all together for any lenght of time.  With the Cubs/Sox series tied at two apiece, tomorrow's game will give one team bragging rights for a few months, until the makeup game in September.  Carlos Zambrano will face John Danks in what should be a good pitching matchup.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Did I mention that Jake Fox could hit?

Jake Fox had a second straight 3 hit game and hit his second homerun in as many days to lead the Cubs over the White Sox 5-4 Friday afternoon.  The win snapped the Cubs 4 game losing streak and give them a 2-1 series edge so far against the Sox.

Fox started the Cubs scoring in the 4th with a two run homerun off of Jose Contreras.  Fox also started the Cubs 3 run rally in the 7th with a one out single.  Mike Fontenot then reached on a fielding error by Paul Konerko before Geo Soto hit his 7th homerun to give the Cubs a 5-2 lead.

Soto went 2 for 4 today with the homerun and 3 rbi's, raising his June average to .267.  He has 6 homeruns and 12 rbi's in June and appears to be back on track.

With Carlos Marmol displaying his usual wildness in the eigth (3 walks, 2 hits and 2 runs in 0.1 innings), Sean Marshall was called on to bail him out of a bases loaded jam.  Marshall did just that by inducing A.J. (Barrett's punching bag) Pierzynski into a Lee to Soto to Lee double play.  Gregg then came in to finish off the Sox in the ninth.

As if the Cubs/Sox game wasn't enough to spark Cubs' fans interest, the Cubs decided to give their fans some off the field shenanigans to talk about.  After flying out in the 6th, a frustrated Milton Bradley decided to take it out on his helmet and the Gatorade cooler.  I don't know about you, but it seems like everyone is frustrated with the Gatorade coolers for some reason.  First Zambrano and now Bradley.  I think Gatorade is paying these players extra to beat up their coolers, so that they get some air time.

Anyway, after Bradley's tirade, Piniella, the cool, calm and collected gentleman that he is, decided that he had seen enough of Bradley's crap and sent him to the showers early.  Piniella said after the game that "I followed him up to the clubhouse and we exchanged some words. I don't like when those things happen, but I was tired of watching it."  Piniella did go on to say that, despite the tirade, Bradley would be in the lineup tomorrow.

To cap it all off, it was reported in the Chicago Sun Times today that Geo Soto tested positive for Marijuana.  He will be banned from international play for two years, but will not be disciplined by the Cubs or MLB.  Soto stated that it was an isolated incident and apologized to the team and the City of Chicago.  Let's just hope that this was not the cause of his poor April.  In any case, he seems to have turned the corner and doesn't need any more distractions getting in his way.

So, overall a pretty eventful day for the Cubs.  How are they going to top this tomorrow?

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Cubs lose again, but Jake can rake.

The usually reliable Ted Lilly had a bad start today, giving up 6 runs on 10 hits and a walk in 6 innings.  That is the most runs he's given up in a start all year (his previous high was 5 runs, which he gave up on three occassions).

The offense busted out for 5 runs in the game, including 3 runs in the first, thanks to a two out 3-run homerun by Jake Fox, the first of his MLB career.  Jake went 3 for 4 on the day to raise his season average to .353.  He is certainly showing he is capable of hitting major league pitching.  The knock on him in the minors was that he struck out too much.  However, so far this year he's only struck out 7 times in 34 Ab's or about 20% of the time.  Not great, but not bad either.

The other knock on him is he doesn't have a position and would be best served being a DH in the AL.  However, so far this year, he has had 2 starts in the OF and 3 at third and has yet to commit an error.  Sure, its a small sample size, but I'll take it.

I can see Piniella giving him more starts at third, especially against lefthanders, until Ramirez returns in a few weeks.  Then, it'll be interesting to see what Lou does.  He could potentially put Fox in leftfield and move Soriano to second.  This would give the Cubs a pretty weak defense, but a potentially potent offense.

For now, Fox will probably serve as the DH for the White Sox series, after that its anybody's guess as to where and when Piniella will play him.  But, if he continues to hit, I'm sure Lou will find a spot for him.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Cubs lose, Ramirez to take BP

The Cubs again showed the ineptitude with RISP tonight, going only 1 for 15, while getting beat 5-3 by the Tigers.  Derek Lee did extend his hitting streak to 21 games, but otherwise it was another poor performance by the offense.

On a positive note, MLB.com is reporting that Aramis Ramirez had another good workout and is scheduled to take batting practice on Friday.  If everything goes well, he could begin a minor league rehab assignment shortly after that.

So, what does this mean to the Cubs?  Well, the Cubs and their fans have something to look forward to and hopefully his return will give the offense a boost.  Is Ramirez the savior?  No, but, Ramirez was hitting .474 with RISP this year before his injury and was the most productive Cub last year with RISP with a .310 average, 12 hr's and 86 rbi's.

As for other options for improving the offense, John Paul Morosi of Fox Sports has an interesting quote from the Cub's Assistant GM Randy Bush, who implies that the Cubs are not in the market for a hitter, stating that "We'd like to get Aramis back, see how that solidifies our lineup and go from there".

The main thing about trading for a hitter is that there are not a lot of hitters available at this time, as about 22 out of the 30 MLB teams are still within 5 games of a playoff spot, so not many teams are selling.  Plus, there are a lot of teams looking for hitting (St. Louis and Atlanta immediately come to mind), so that the demand for hitters is far exceeding their supply and thus the price to acquire one of the available hitters (such as DeRosa) is too high.  Besides, I really do not think that Hendry will bring back DeRosa, as that would be admitting he made a mistake in trading him in the first place.

So, the Cubs are going to have to sink or swim with what they've got.  Piniella has been tinkering with the lineup lately, getting Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir more at bats, but so far that has not been the answer.  Unless the struggling players (Bradley, Soto, Fontenot and Soriano) get their acts together, this is going to be a long season.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Cubs have to learn smallball

The Cubs suffered another excrutiating loss tonight, this time Kevin Gregg was the goat, giving up a two run homer to Ryan Raburn with one out in the ninth.  However, as bad as that was, that was not the reason the Cubs lost the game.

For the second night in a row, the Cubs failed to get a hit with runners in scoring position, going 0 for 8.  In the first inning, the Cubs loaded the bases with no one out on hits by Soriano and Theriot, followed by a walk to Bradley.  However, the Cubs only managed 1 run as D Lee hit into a forceout to score the run.  Hoffpauir followed Lee with a strikeout and Soto grounded out.

In the 4th inning, Lee and Hoffpauir led off the inning with walks.   But, after Soto and Fukudome struck out, Mike Fontenot flied out to end the inning.

Finally, in the 6th Bradley led off with a walk followed by a double by Lee.  After Hoffpauir struck out (again), Soto hit a sacrifice fly, to score the Cubs second run, before Fukudome flied out to end the threat.

In those three innings, the Cubs had 5 men in scoring position with no one out and only scored 2 runs.  The Cubs struck out 4 times with RISP during those innings, with Hoffpauir contributing two of the strikeouts.  If the Cubs had put the ball in play and kept the runners moving, chances are they could have come away with 1-2 more runs, even without the benefit of a hit and as we saw, those runs were the difference in the game.

Hoffpauir redeemed himself somewhat by hitting a two run homerun in the 8th to give the Cubs the lead.  However, far too many times it seems that the Cubs are waiting for that 3 run homerun that never comes (when you're hitting .246 as a team, with a .324 OBP, its hard enough to get two men on in one inning, let alone hit a 3 run homerun).

So, the Cubs need to get back to basics, make contact and move the runners up.  If they can do that, good things will happen.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Vazquez cools down Cubs' bats

Javier Vazquez was not dominating by any means, but he managed to scatter 9 hits and two walks over 6.2 innings as the Braves shut out the Cubs 2-0.

The Cubs got 3 hits in the first but were unable to score.  Theriot led off with a single but was quickly erased by a double-play by Fukudome.  Jake Fox and Derek Lee followed with two-out singles, but were left stranded when Hoffpauir struck out.

The Cubs also threatened with two outs in the 6th, when they loaded the bases on singles by Hoffpauir and Soto followed by a walk to Fontenot.  However, they were stranded when Blanco flied out to end the inning.

Overall, the Cubs stranded 12 baserunners and were 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position.  So, even though they were putting hits on the board, they couldn't come through with the key hit when it counted.

So, the Cubs fly into Detroit to face a Tigers team that has won 4 in a row, including a 3 game sweep of the Brewers at home.  The Tigers are the class of the AL Central and are 4 games up on the closest rivals, the Twins.

Having just had a 4 game winning streak of their own snapped today by the Braves, the Cubs hope to pay it forward and snap Detroit's winning streak tomorrow.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Wells finally gets first win

It took eight starts, but Randy Wells finally got his first win today, beating the Indians 6-2.  The Cubs swept the 3 game series against the Indians and now have a 4 game winning streak.

But the story of the day was Randy Wells.  After pitching effectively for 6 of his first 7 starts and ending up with nothing to show for it, he proved that the 8th time is the charm.  He threw 6.2 innings giving up 5 hits and 1 walk while allowing two runs.  The win improves his record to 1-3 (although he really should be 7-0).   Whether its been poor run support or the bullpen blowing leads for him, Wells had to be one of the most frustrated pitchers in the big leads.  However, he continued to remain calm and put together strong outings and it finally paid off for him.

Today's 6-run outburst for the Cubs was the most runs they have put on the board while Wells was in the game.  The offense was led by Jake Fox, who had 3 rbi's, and Geo Soto, who hit his 5th homerun while driving in two.

The Cubs have a makeup game on Monday against Atlanta and then have a three game series with the Detroit Tigers in Detroit, followed by a three game series against the White Sox at the Cell.  Its likely that Jake Fox with be the DH during both AL series, so that Piniella can keep his bat in the lineup, while not sacrificing his defense.

Rototimes projects the pitching matchups for the next 4 games, as follows:

Monday - Ryan Dempster vs Javier Vazquez

Tuesday - Carlos Zambrano vs Edwin Jackson

Wednesday - Rich Harden vs Rick Porcello

Thursday - Ted Lilly vs Armando Gallaraga

The Cubs face some pretty good pitchers in Vazquez (4-6, 3.41 ERA), Jackson (6-4, 2.39) and Porcello (8-4, 3.54) over the next few days.  So, it will be important for the offense to build upon the success they've had over the last 4 games.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Cubs starting a comeback trend

Hey gang, sorry for the brief hiatus.  We lost power due to the storms yesterday and we didn't get it back until around noon today.

So, what have we missed.  Oh yeah, the Cubs have now come from behind to win three straight games for the first time since 1998.  The last two wins came against Cleveland and their lousy bullpen (just ask Milwaukee, who scored 6 runs in the 8th inning to beat the Tribe 14-12 five days ago).

Yesterday, Derek Lee was the hero hitting a ninth-inning homerun against Kerry Wood to tie the game.  Then, in the 10th, Soriano drew a two-out walk, stole second and scored on a Ryan Theriot single.

Today, with the scored tied 4 all heading into the 13th inning, Luis Valbuena hit his second homerun on the day to put Cleveland up 5-4.  Kerry Wood then came in to shut the door in the bottom of the 13th, but then he remembered that Cleveland's bullpen stinks.  So, he gave up a single to Fukudome, who then stole second base and went to third on Kelly Shoppack's throwing error.  Then, with one out, Andres Blanco singled to score Fukudome.  Aaron Miles then singled to move Blanco to third and then Kerry Wood uncorked a wild pitch to allow Blanco to score.

So, in the last 3 days, the Cubs have scored 20 runs on 32 hits.  Derek Lee has been scorching hot, going 6-14 with 4 homeruns and driving in 8 of the Cubs' runs.  Is the team slump over?  Its too early to tell, but this is definitely a good sign.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Thanks, we needed that...

The Cubs overcame a 5-1 deficit by scoring 5 runs in the last two innings to beat the Sox 6-5.  The big hit came off the bat of Soriano, who delivered the game winner with two outs in the ninth.

One day after hinting that lineup changes were in order, Lou Piniella kept things pretty much status quo, with the exception of Fukudome starting against the righthander in centerfield and Andres Blanco playing second.

Derek Lee got the Cubs going in the eigth inning with a 3-run homer off of Scott Linebrink.  Geo Soto followed that up with a solo shot of his own to tie the game at 5.

Reed Johnson started off the ninth inning with a single and was sacrificed to second by Blanco.  After Aaron Miles grounded out, Soriano delivered his walk-off hit.

This is the kind of game the Cubs needed.  One that should give them some confidence and momentum going into their next series against Cleveland.  Add to that the Cleveland in last in the majors with a 5.28 ERA and this is an opportune time for the Cubs' bats to breakout.

The Cubs will have to face Cleveland's ace Cliff Lee on Friday with Harden going for the Cubs.  But if they can somehow squeak out a win in that game, the matchups are a bit more favorable for the rest of the series.

Here are the pitching matchups against Cleveland:

Friday - Rich Harden (4-3, 4.53 ERA) vs Cliff Lee (4-6, 2.88 ERA)

Saturday - Ted Lilly (7-4, 2.94 ERA) vs Tomo Ohka (0-1, 4.24 ERA)

Sunday - Randy Wells (0-3, 2.55 ERA) vs Jeremy Sowers (1-4, 5.14 ERA)

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Cubs lose to Sox 4-1

Its gotten to the point that I think that even I and my 65 mph fastball could get the Cubs hitters out.

Make no mistake about it though, John Danks is a good pitcher and he showed it today.  He shut down the Cubs offense for 7 innings, allowing only the 1 run on 5 hits and no walks while striking out 9.  He looked more like the 2008 version of himself that went 12-9 with a 3.32 ERA, than the current version that was 4-5 with a 4.81 ERA heading into this game.

After the game, Lou Piniella threatened to shake things up, saying "It's getting to the point where I'm going to have to start making some tough decisions and get other people in the lineup.  I've been real patient with it, I'll tell you."

In his article on the game today, Rick Morrisey of the Chicago Tribune suggested that Piniella put Jake Fox in left and move Soriano to second.  I'm all for it!  We need to get Fox in the lineup somehow to see what he can do (I suggested third a little while ago, but he may be better suited for the outfield).  He also suggested moving Soriano down to the 6th spot and batting Theriot first.  Sounds good to me!

Piniella made a point of confirming Soriano's role as leadoff hitter a couple days ago, stating, "We've been through this many times.  When we signed Alfonso, he was a leadoff hitter. We've won two divisions with him being a leadoff hitter. What else can I say? He's struggling. We just got to hope he gets hot."

I can understand trying to keep a player comfortable when he's going well and that Soriano has not hit as well in other spots in the lineup over his career.  But, how much more uncomfortable can he be in another spot than he is right now.  He's now 14 for 99 over his last 23 games.  Maybe a change or some rest would do him some good.

One thing is obvious, Piniella cannot keep going with the status quo if he wants to win (and keep his job).

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Say it ain't Sosa!

The New York Times is reporting today that Sammy Sosa was among the players who tested positive for using performance enhancing drugs in 2003, confirming what many people suspected all along.

As a baseball fan, I loved the great homerun race of 1998.  It helped rekindle my love for the game and it helped to breath new life into the sport.  I went to the August 19th Cubs/Cardinals game in Wrigley that year with some Cubs friends and got to witness the race firsthand.  Sosa briefly tied McGwire by hitting an early homerun, only to have McGwire swat two homeruns later in the game to pull back ahead.

However, after the congressional hearings on steroids, I lost a lot of my respect for McGwire and his inability to talk about the past.  However, I thought it somewhat ridiculous that McGwire was lambasted in the media for this, but that Sosa was given the benefit of the doubt because he was able to deny using steroids through his lawyer/interpreter, as he "didn't speak english".  Anyone who thought that McGwire was using but Sosa was not was clearly either in denial or just plain blind.

Its a little ironic, if not suspicious, that this news is "leaked" shortly after Sosa's interview with ESPN Deportes, in which he said that he would "calmly wait" for his induction into the Hall of Fame.  Clearly someone wanted to make sure that did not happen.

One thing is for sure, there will be a cloud of suspicion over all of the players of the so-called "steroid era", kind of a "guilty until proven innocent" mentality, at least until all of the names of the players on that 2003 list are revealed.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Cubs find scapegoat...

In case you missed it, the Cubs fired their hitting coach Gerald Perry after Sunday's game and replaced him with AAA hitting coach Von Joshua.  Perry was also the hitting coach last year, when the Cubs had the best offense in the NL and only Texas scored more runs in the AL (with the benefit of the DH).

Yes, its obvious that Perry was to blame and had to go.  The Cubs will surely start hitting now!

Cubs vs Sox breakdown

The Crosstown classic looks like it will be a battle of who can score the fewest runs.  The Cubs come into the series with a 4.2 runs per game average.  Not to be outdone, the White Sox are only scoring 4.1 runs per game (with the benefit of a DH).

Let's take a position by position look at the teams to see how they match up:

Catcher - Geo Soto vs A.J. Piezynski - I think Soto is a better hitter, in a normal year.  But he has struggled to get going this year and Pierzynski is hitting .306 and has been pretty consistent all year.  EDGE:  White Sox

Firstbase - Derek Lee vs Paul Konerko - Konerko has looked better at the plate hitting .294 with 8 HR's and 41 rbi's to Lee's .278 with 7 HR's and 27 rbis.  Neither one is showing a lot of power and its hard for Lee to drive in runs when Soriano is not getting on base, plus Lee is a better fielder.  EDGE:  EVEN

Secondbase - Aaron Miles vs Chris Getz - With Aramis Ramirez's injury, Miles and Blanco have been playing second for the Cubs with Fontenot shifting to Third.  Neither Miles or Blanco have shown they can hit this year, whereas Getz is hitting .249 with 8 SB's.  EDGE:  White Sox

Thirdbase - Mike Fontenot vs Gordon Beckham - Fontenot hasn't hit well this year, batting only .236 with 6 HR's.  Beckham has yet to adjust to major league pitching and is only 4 for 35.  EDGE: Cubs

Shortstop - Ryan Theriot vs Alexi Ramirez - Theriot's been one of the few Cubs players to hit consistently all year.  Ramirez struggled early, but has been hitting better lately.  Still Theriot's been the better all around player.  EDGE: Cubs

Leftfield - Alfonzo Soriano vs Scott Podsednik - In any other year, Soriano is clearly the better player.  However, this year Podsednik is hitting well and Soriano is not.  So, for this series at least, I think the edge has to go to Pods.  EDGE: White Sox

Centerfield - Kosuke Fukudome/Reed Johnson vs Brian Anderson - Johnson has done well facing lefthanders (watch out Danks) and despite his struggles, Fukudome is still hitting better than Anderson.  EDGE: Cubs

Rightfield - Milton Bradley vs Jermaine Dye - Bradley has struggled all year and Dye is the Sox's best hitter.  EDGE: White Sox

Pitching -

Tuesday - Carlos Zambrano vs John Danks - Zambrano has pitched like an ace recently and may be in a groove, whereas Danks has struggled with his command and can't seem to put it all together.  EDGE: Cubs

Wednesday - Ryan Dempster vs Gavin Floyd - both pitchers have fared well in the last 3 starts (Dempster 1-0 with an 0.45 ERA, Floyd 1-0 with a 1.66 ERA), however Dempster has been more consistent throughout the season.  EDGE: Cubs

Thursday - Randy Wells vs Chris Richard - Other than the hiccup against the Twins, Wells has pitched extremely well for the Cubs.  Richard has been struggling as of late.  EDGE: Cubs

Bullpens - In Dotel, Thorton, Linebrink and Jenks, the Sox have a solid core of relievers to turn to in a jam.  The Cubs counter with Guzman, Heilman, Marmol and Gregg, who have been decent, but not great.  EDGE: White Sox

Bench - With the games being played at Wrigley, the Sox have DH Jim Thome coming off the bench (or possibly playing first).  The Cubs best hitter off the bench is Hoffpauir.  EDGE: White Sox

Overall, I think this is going to be an evenly matched series and I wouldn't be surprised if all games are decided by 1 run.  I think the Cubs starters should be able to shut down what little offense the Sox offer and if the Cubs can scratch for a few runs each game, I think they can take the series.

PREDICTION - CUBS 2 games to 1

Sunday, June 14, 2009

The Riot comes through for the Cubs

Ryan Theriot's one out single in the ninth scored Derek Lee for the winning run as the Cubs salvaged the final game of their 3 game series against the Twins.  Derek Lee singled with one out in the ninth and went to third on a single by Geo Soto.  Lee now has a 13 game hitting streak and is the only Cubs player hitting consistently.

Ted Lilly had another strong outing, throwing 7.2 innings and scattering 9 hits while giving up only 2 runs.  Carlos Marmol pitched the final 1.1 innings for the win.

Next up for the Cubs is the crosstown classic against the White Sox.  The pitching matchups are as follows:

Tuesday - Carlos Zambrano vs John Danks

Wednesday - Ryan Dempster vs Gavin Floyd

Thursday - Clayton Richard vs Randy Wells

Should be a fun and interesting series.  I will give you my complete analysis on the series tomorrow.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Is it time to panic?

Ok, the Cubs got shut out today.  By a rookie.  A rookie with a 5.23 ERA.  A rookie who, in his last two starts, failed to make it past 4 innings.  A rookie who by all measures should not have been able to stiffle the Cubs like that.  However, as we have found out lately, you do not have to be Cy Young to shut down the Cubs' offense.

Obviously, Lou Pineilla does not read this blog, because the team sent down Jake Fox just days after I suggested they use him at third.  At least they sent down Bobby Scales too, as he was a waste of a roster spot.

So, where does that leave the Cubs?  Ramirez is still at least a month away from returning and its unlikely that he can spark the offense all by himself.  The Cubs' farm system is weak, Baseball America ranked them 27th out of the 30 major league teams in terms of talent.  That means that the Cubs have very little minor league talent to support the parent club, which is why we are seeing the likes of Bobby Scales and Andres Blanco filling in for Ramirez.  Nor do the Cubs have the talent to trade for a big bat.

So the Cubs are pretty much stuck with the hand they've been dealt.  But, so far at least, its been a bust.

Friday, June 12, 2009

...or perhaps Bradley should jump off the cliff!

Milton Bradley had a day to forget today, unfortunately most Cubs fans will never let him live it down.  Although Bradley went 2 for 4 and drove in 2 of the Cubs meager 4 runs, all you will hear about and all the Cubs fans will talk about are the missed flyball, the baserunning gaffe and of course forgetting that there were only two outs when he flipped the ball into the stands.

However, other than the ball he lost in the sun, which could happen to anyone (if you think its easy, try it sometime), none of his other miscues cost the Cubs any runs.  The way the Cubs have been hitting, he probably would have been stranded on the bases anyway.  As for forgetting how many outs there were, the runner on third would have scored anyway on the sacrifice fly and the runner on first was stranded on third.

So, I guess the main issue is what to do with Bradley.  Listening to the postgame talk shows and the like, it sounds like the fans want to get rid of him or at least bench him.  Problem is, Bradley's the only legitimate lefthanded power threat the Cubs have against righthanders (he's a switch hitter).  Sure Fontenot and Fukudome bat lefthanded, but I don't see either of them capable of hitting 20 hr's or more like Bradley.

In addition, the Cubs just spent $26 million to sign the guy, they want to see some return on their investment, so he's not going to ride the bench.

I truly believe his hitting is going to come around.  He's a career .277 hitter and hasn't forgotten how to hit.  He may still be bothered by his leg injuries, which may be affecting his hitting.  But, once he gets his legs back under him, he should come around.

One of my favorite stats is BABiP (Batting Average Balls in Play), which is calculated as follows:

(H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

Throughout his career, Bradley's BABiP has been around .320.  This year its only .237.  The theory behind the BABiP is that, over the course of a season, a batter's BABiP will revert to its mean.  In other words, Bradley's probably hit into some bad luck so far and as the season progresses, some of the balls that he has hit right at people will start going through for hits and he'll end up around his career BABiP mark.  When that happens, he should end up around his career average of .277.  It also should be noted that last year Bradley had a BABiP of .388.  So, if everyone was expecting another .321 season, that was probably wishful thinking.  Every once in a while, a player will have a year where everything seems to fall their way.  That's why they're called career years.

Bottom line, if Bradley was hitting .300 right now, everyone would've just laughed off the flip into the stands play (like they did when Larry Walker did it).  However, since he's hitting only .224, everyone's quick to say "his head is not in the game" or "he should be benched".  But if the Cubs bench Bradley now, it would make an already poor offense even worse.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Step away from the cliff...

First the bad news, the Cubs lost again.  One day after Geoff Blum drove in the winning run in the bottom of the 9th to beat the Cubs 2-1, he did it again, this time in the bottom of the 13th.  The Cubs lost 2 of 3 to the lowly Astros and head home after a 4-4 road trip.

Now the good news.  Despite the Cubs' lackluster offense, they are still 29-28 and only 2.5 games back in the NL Central race.  They play their next 9 games at home against the Twins, White Sox and Indians, all teams who are below .500.  The pitching has been great.  The Cubs pitching staff has given up the 3rd fewest runs in all of baseball.  Rich Harden is scheduled to return to the mound on Saturday, after being out nearly a month and they get to face a White Sox team that is scoring even fewer runs per game than the Cubs.  Add it all up and you've got the makings of a nice homestand.

Here are the pitching matchups for the weekend series against the Twins:

Friday - Randy Wells vs Kevin Slowey - This is a tough matchup for the Cubs.  Slowey is 8-2 and Wells has to face one of the better offenses in the AL.

Saturday - Rich Harden vs Anthony Swarzak - Got to like the Cubs chances in this one.  Harden going against the rookie Swarzak, who has struggled of late.

Sunday - Ted Lilly vs Scott Baker - This will probably be the rubber game of the series.  Lilly has been lights out in his last 3 starts (0.87 ERA), so if the Cubs can muster a couple runs off Baker, they should be able to take this game and 2 out of 3 for the series.

I'll give you a detailed analysis of the Cubs/Sox series matchups on Monday.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

A look back at Cubs 1st draft picks 1999-2008

With the 2009 MLB Draft happening this week, I thought it would be interesting to look back at the Cubs last 10 first draft picks to see where they are now:

1999 (26th overall) - Ben Christensen, rhp - This was a bit of a controversial pick for the Cubs, as Christensen was involved in an incident in college where he beaned Anthony Molina for supposedly "timing his pitches".  Christensen spent 5 years in the Cubs system, never advancing higher than AA.  Shoulder and elbow injuries derailed his career.

2000 (3rd overall) - Luis Montanez, ss - Bounced around in the minors with the Cubs for 7 years before getting released and signed by the Orioles.  Finally made the majors in 2008 and hit .295 in 112 AB's.

2001 (2nd overall) - Mark Prior, rhp - Cubs fans are certainly aware of Prior's exploits.  Expected to be the ace of the Cubs for years, he pitched like it during the 2003 season, only to be derailed by various ailments from then on.  He last pitched in 2006 and its doubtful we'll see him pitch effectively again.

2002 (21st overall) - Bobby Brownlie, rhp - Another pitcher derailed by shoulder problems.  Brownlie has bounced around the minors for 5 years, last year with the Nationals.  He does not appear to be with any organization this year.

2003 (6th overall) - Ryan Harvey, of - Another player who has yet to make it out of the minors.  Harvey has good power, but also strikes out a ton (30%).  He's a career .247 hitter over 1924 AB's in the minors.  He is currently with the Colorado AA team.

2004 (2nd round, 66th overall) - Grant Johnson, rhp - Has compiled a 4.53 ERA in his minor league career, spanning 4 years and 314 innings.  He too has battled injuries throughout his career.

2005 (20th overall) - Mark Pawelek, rhp - Pitched well in rookie ball in 2005 and low A in 2006, but has struggled since then and, despite being just 22 years old, he does not appear to be in the Cubs plans.

2006 (13th overall) - Tyler Colvin, of - Rated the 16th best Cubs prospect by Baseball America, Colvin played well in his first 2 years in the minors, but did not adjust well to AA in 2008.  He's back in AA in 2009 and looking to improve.  Still just 23 years old, the jury's still out on him.

2007 (3rd overall) - Josh Vitters, 3b - Rated the top prospect of the Cubs by Baseball America, Vitters hit .328 in short-seaon A ball in 2008 and is currently hitting .332 in low A this year, with 13 hr's in 205 AB's.  He looks like he could eventually replace Aramis Ramirez at 3b.

2008 (19th overall) - Andrew Cashner, rhp - A closer in college, he is being used as a starter in the minors.  After struggling in his debut in 2008, he has pitched well so far this year, with a 1.75 ERA in 25.2 innings at high A.  He is ranked as the 3rd best prospect of the Cubs by Baseball America.

So, there you have it.  Other than Prior (before his injuries), none of the Cubs first round draft picks through 2005 have amounted to much.  However, things are looking a bit more promising for the last three picks, with Vitters the cream of the crop.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Good win for Cubs

The Cubs got a much needed easy victory tonight beating the Astros 7-1.  Ted Lilly looked sharp allowing only 3 hits and 2 walks in 6.2 innings.  He did not allow any runs.  The only Astros run scored off of Sean Marshall, who pitched mop-up duty in the 9th.

Better yet, the Cubs bats came alive, albeit against an Astros pitching staff that is 14th in the NL in ERA.  Mike Fontenot went 4 for 5, including his 6th HR, to raise his average to .249 for the season.  He's now hitting .385 in June.  Geo Soto went 3 for 5 and Kosuke Fukudome went 2 for 4.  Overall the Cubs knocked out 16 hits to go with 8 walks.  Despite leaving 16 men on base, they went 6 for 19 with runners in scoring position.

Up next, the Cubs will face Wandy Rodriguez.  Wandy has been knocked around his last three outings, giving up 29 hits, 7 walks and 18 runs (only 12 earned) in 13.2 innings.  The Cubs will see if they can continue that trend.

Carlos Zambrano goes for the Cubs and is coming off a strong performance against the Reds on June 5th, where he allowed no runs in 6.2 innings.  He did walk 5 batters in that game, but that may have been due to a little rust coming off his 6 game suspension.

Monday, June 8, 2009

What to do about the Cubs offense?

Ok, its pretty obvious the Cubs offense is struggling, to say the least.  After leading the NL and finishing second in the majors in runs scored in 2008, the Cubs are currently 13th in runs scored in 2009.  In 2008, the Cubs averaged 5.3 runs per game.  This year they are averaging only 4.4 runs per game.

One obvious problem is injuries.  Missing Aramis Ramirez has definitely hurt, but even some of the "healthy" players are nursing injuries.  Geo Soto has shoulder issues.  Alfonzo Soriano has a sore knee.

Another problem is players not hitting as well as expected.  Between 2007 and 2008, Mike Fontenot hit .291 with 12 hrs in 477 ab's.  This year he is only hitting .232.  After his career year in 2005, Derek Lee has not hit more than 22 hr's in a season and is only on pace for about 18 hr's this year.  Milton Bradley appears to be a free agent bust, hitting only .218 and showing his same injury prone tendencies.

Thus, out of the regulars, only Ryan Theriot and the platoon of Fukudome/Johnson are producing so far (and we all know what happened to Fukudome in the second half of last year).

So, we can see that we have a problem, how can we fix it?  Do we give more playing time to Jake Fox, who was mashing in the minors, but is lacking a position on defense?  Do we wait until Ramirez comes back from his shoulder injury and hope that he provides the Cubs with an offensive spark?  Do we trade for some outside help (DeRosa, Holliday)?  Do we pray to "Jobu" and hope Cerrano, oops, I mean Soriano lays off the outside curveball?

Here's what I think the Cubs should do:

  1. Put Fox at third and Fontenot back at second.  Fox may be poor defensively at third, but hopefully his hitting will make up for it.  This will put Scales back on the bench as a utility player, late inning defensive replacement, where he belongs.

  2. Give this switch a few weeks to see what happens.  If Fox is able to add a little life to the offense, the Cubs should be OK and can wait for Ramirez's return.  If Fox doesn't hit or is atrocious at third, then the Cubs should pursue a player like DeRosa (Cleveland may be ready to sell at that point) who can play multiple positions and fill in for the slumping or injured players.


What do you all think?  Is there another option I may have missed?  Let me know you thoughts in the comments.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Cubs lose 4-3 in extra innings

The Cubs lost a heartbreaker tonight, 4-3 to the Reds in 12 innings.  Again the offense didn't look good, only managing 2 runs against rookie Matt Maloney.  They were a miserable 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position, with 2 runs scoring on homeruns and another scoring on a sacrifice fly.

On a more positive note, Geo Soto went deep, giving fans some hope that he might be finally breaking out of his season-long funk.  Bobby Scales also went deep, but after going 8 for 18 in his first 6 games, he has cooled down considerably, going 4 for 35.